NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIL MIA
Points 111.7 109.2
Total Points   220.9
Points From 2-Pointers 52.7 53.6
Points From 3-Pointers 42.5 37.9
Points From Free Throws 16.5 17.6
Shooting MIL MIA
Field Goals Made 40.5 39.4
Field Goals Attempted 84.6 87.2
Field Goal % 47.9% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 26.4 26.8
2 Pointers Attempted 45.0 51.9
2 Point Shooting % 58.6% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 14.2 12.6
3 Pointers Attempted 39.6 35.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 16.5 17.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 21.5
Free Throw % 78.0% 81.9%
Ball Control MIL MIA
Rebounds 48.9 47.2
Rebounds - Defensive 39.8 37.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 9.7
Turnovers 11.7 10.1
Blocked Shots 4.1 2.7
Steals 5.4 6.4
Fouls 17.4 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIL MIA
Total Possessions 99.9
Effective Scoring Chances 97.3 99.5
% of Possessions with MIL MIA
2 Point Attempt 40.9% 46.7%
3 Point Attempt 36.0% 31.7%
Player Fouled 16.2% 17.5%
Turnover 11.7% 10.1%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIL MIA
Shot Blocked 3.2% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 19.5% 19.6%