NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CLE MIA
Points 107.0 106.1
Total Points   213.1
Points From 2-Pointers 52.9 51.9
Points From 3-Pointers 40.0 36.9
Points From Free Throws 14.1 17.2
Shooting CLE MIA
Field Goals Made 39.8 38.3
Field Goals Attempted 83.7 83.8
Field Goal % 47.5% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 26.4 26.0
2 Pointers Attempted 45.5 50.5
2 Point Shooting % 58.1% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.3 12.3
3 Pointers Attempted 38.3 33.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 14.1 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 21.0
Free Throw % 75.9% 81.9%
Ball Control CLE MIA
Rebounds 46.7 46.8
Rebounds - Defensive 37.4 37.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 9.8
Turnovers 12.2 11.6
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.2
Steals 5.9 6.9
Fouls 16.1 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CLE MIA
Total Possessions 97.8
Effective Scoring Chances 94.9 96.0
% of Possessions with CLE MIA
2 Point Attempt 42.0% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 35.3% 30.4%
Player Fouled 16.3% 16.5%
Turnover 12.5% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken CLE MIA
Shot Blocked 3.8% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 20.1% 20.7%