NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM PHO
Points 105.0 116.4
Total Points   221.4
Points From 2-Pointers 48.1 58.0
Points From 3-Pointers 40.4 38.9
Points From Free Throws 16.5 19.4
Shooting MEM PHO
Field Goals Made 37.5 42.0
Field Goals Attempted 90.5 83.5
Field Goal % 41.5% 50.3%
2 Pointers Made 24.1 29.0
2 Pointers Attempted 51.8 50.6
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 57.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.5 13.0
3 Pointers Attempted 38.7 33.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 39.4%
Free Throws Made 16.5 19.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 24.0
Free Throw % 76.6% 80.9%
Ball Control MEM PHO
Rebounds 46.4 52.2
Rebounds - Defensive 32.4 40.9
Rebounds - Offensive 14.0 11.3
Turnovers 12.8 15.1
Blocked Shots 5.3 6.9
Steals 8.5 7.3
Fouls 18.1 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM PHO
Total Possessions 101.5
Effective Scoring Chances 102.7 97.7
% of Possessions with MEM PHO
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 28.7%
Player Fouled 16.1% 17.8%
Turnover 12.6% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM PHO
Shot Blocked 8.4% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 25.8%