NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA BOS
Points 100.8 112.2
Total Points   213.0
Points From 2-Pointers 50.6 48.9
Points From 3-Pointers 36.5 48.8
Points From Free Throws 13.7 14.5
Shooting MIA BOS
Field Goals Made 37.5 40.7
Field Goals Attempted 88.6 86.0
Field Goal % 42.3% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 25.3 24.5
2 Pointers Attempted 53.4 41.6
2 Point Shooting % 47.4% 58.7%
3 Pointers Made 12.2 16.3
3 Pointers Attempted 35.1 44.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 13.7 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 18.1
Free Throw % 81.9% 80.1%
Ball Control MIA BOS
Rebounds 47.4 51.8
Rebounds - Defensive 36.7 41.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 10.5
Turnovers 10.5 10.8
Blocked Shots 2.3 5.6
Steals 5.4 5.6
Fouls 14.6 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA BOS
Total Possessions 97.5
Effective Scoring Chances 97.7 97.1
% of Possessions with MIA BOS
2 Point Attempt 48.4% 38.3%
3 Point Attempt 31.8% 40.8%
Player Fouled 14.9% 15.0%
Turnover 10.7% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA BOS
Shot Blocked 6.6% 2.6%
Offensive Rebound 20.5% 22.2%