NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA CHA
Points 111.7 103.0
Total Points   214.7
Points From 2-Pointers 54.9 52.2
Points From 3-Pointers 40.1 37.5
Points From Free Throws 16.7 13.3
Shooting MIA CHA
Field Goals Made 40.8 38.6
Field Goals Attempted 84.6 83.8
Field Goal % 48.3% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 27.5 26.1
2 Pointers Attempted 48.9 47.3
2 Point Shooting % 56.2% 55.1%
3 Pointers Made 13.4 12.5
3 Pointers Attempted 35.7 36.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 16.7 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 16.9
Free Throw % 81.9% 78.9%
Ball Control MIA CHA
Rebounds 48.5 43.9
Rebounds - Defensive 38.4 35.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 8.5
Turnovers 11.8 12.8
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.9
Steals 6.6 5.6
Fouls 14.9 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Charlotte

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA CHA
Total Possessions 98.2
Effective Scoring Chances 96.5 93.9
% of Possessions with MIA CHA
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 32.5% 33.8%
Player Fouled 16.4% 15.2%
Turnover 12.0% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA CHA
Shot Blocked 4.7% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 18.1%