NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA SAC
Points 109.0 111.2
Total Points   220.2
Points From 2-Pointers 51.7 54.1
Points From 3-Pointers 38.1 42.8
Points From Free Throws 19.1 14.3
Shooting MIA SAC
Field Goals Made 38.6 41.3
Field Goals Attempted 83.2 87.2
Field Goal % 46.4% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 25.9 27.0
2 Pointers Attempted 50.1 46.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.7% 57.7%
3 Pointers Made 12.7 14.3
3 Pointers Attempted 33.1 40.3
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 19.1 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 19.2
Free Throw % 81.9% 74.6%
Ball Control MIA SAC
Rebounds 46.4 48.7
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 37.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 10.9
Turnovers 12.0 11.9
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.0
Steals 6.7 6.3
Fouls 15.5 18.3

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA SAC
Total Possessions 100.0
Effective Scoring Chances 96.7 99.0
% of Possessions with MIA SAC
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.0% 36.0%
Player Fouled 18.3% 15.5%
Turnover 12.0% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA SAC
Shot Blocked 4.6% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 18.8% 22.4%