NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA POR
Points 112.6 103.5
Total Points   216.0
Points From 2-Pointers 58.5 54.4
Points From 3-Pointers 34.2 34.2
Points From Free Throws 19.9 14.9
Shooting MIA POR
Field Goals Made 40.6 38.6
Field Goals Attempted 83.1 86.5
Field Goal % 48.9% 44.6%
2 Pointers Made 29.2 27.2
2 Pointers Attempted 50.6 52.3
2 Point Shooting % 57.8% 51.9%
3 Pointers Made 11.4 11.4
3 Pointers Attempted 32.5 34.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 19.9 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 24.3 18.8
Free Throw % 81.9% 79.4%
Ball Control MIA POR
Rebounds 47.2 47.1
Rebounds - Defensive 37.2 34.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 12.5
Turnovers 12.0 13.8
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.9
Steals 8.0 6.0
Fouls 14.8 18.4

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA POR
Total Possessions 99.3
Effective Scoring Chances 97.3 98.0
% of Possessions with MIA POR
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 46.2%
3 Point Attempt 29.3% 30.1%
Player Fouled 18.5% 14.9%
Turnover 12.1% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA POR
Shot Blocked 4.6% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 22.4% 25.1%