NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BK TOR
Points 117.2 111.7
Total Points   228.9
Points From 2-Pointers 59.3 60.3
Points From 3-Pointers 42.2 34.9
Points From Free Throws 15.6 16.6
Shooting BK TOR
Field Goals Made 43.7 41.8
Field Goals Attempted 91.1 89.6
Field Goal % 48.0% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 29.7 30.1
2 Pointers Attempted 52.9 56.6
2 Point Shooting % 56.0% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 14.1 11.6
3 Pointers Attempted 38.2 33.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 15.6 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 21.6
Free Throw % 76.0% 76.6%
Ball Control BK TOR
Rebounds 52.0 47.8
Rebounds - Defensive 38.2 36.0
Rebounds - Offensive 13.8 11.9
Turnovers 12.3 12.1
Blocked Shots 6.1 4.4
Steals 6.1 6.5
Fouls 16.1 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BK TOR
Total Possessions 102.0
Effective Scoring Chances 103.5 101.8
% of Possessions with BK TOR
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 32.5% 28.4%
Player Fouled 16.1% 15.8%
Turnover 12.1% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken BK TOR
Shot Blocked 5.0% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.8% 23.7%