NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN ATL
Points 122.8 112.3
Total Points   235.1
Points From 2-Pointers 68.7 58.1
Points From 3-Pointers 38.1 35.5
Points From Free Throws 15.9 18.7
Shooting DEN ATL
Field Goals Made 47.1 40.9
Field Goals Attempted 89.0 90.9
Field Goal % 52.9% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 34.4 29.1
2 Pointers Attempted 56.6 56.8
2 Point Shooting % 60.7% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 12.7 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 32.4 34.0
3 Point Shooting % 39.3% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 15.9 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 23.9
Free Throw % 77.9% 78.3%
Ball Control DEN ATL
Rebounds 49.6 46.7
Rebounds - Defensive 38.4 33.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 13.8
Turnovers 11.5 10.7
Blocked Shots 5.9 4.1
Steals 6.3 6.2
Fouls 16.5 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN ATL
Total Possessions 101.3
Effective Scoring Chances 101.0 104.4
% of Possessions with DEN ATL
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 48.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.4% 29.0%
Player Fouled 16.4% 16.3%
Turnover 11.4% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN ATL
Shot Blocked 4.6% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 26.4%