NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN SA
Points 115.9 108.3
Total Points   224.2
Points From 2-Pointers 68.3 59.4
Points From 3-Pointers 33.2 33.0
Points From Free Throws 14.3 15.9
Shooting DEN SA
Field Goals Made 45.2 40.7
Field Goals Attempted 91.9 89.6
Field Goal % 49.2% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 34.1 29.7
2 Pointers Attempted 61.9 56.7
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 52.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.1 11.0
3 Pointers Attempted 30.0 32.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 14.3 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 20.5
Free Throw % 77.9% 77.6%
Ball Control DEN SA
Rebounds 50.6 48.6
Rebounds - Defensive 39.0 36.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 11.9
Turnovers 11.0 12.0
Blocked Shots 5.0 5.6
Steals 7.3 5.9
Fouls 15.3 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN SA
Total Possessions 101.5
Effective Scoring Chances 102.1 101.4
% of Possessions with DEN SA
2 Point Attempt 53.7% 49.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 28.5%
Player Fouled 14.6% 15.1%
Turnover 10.8% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN SA
Shot Blocked 6.4% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 23.3%