NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NO TOR
Points 120.4 109.0
Total Points   229.4
Points From 2-Pointers 65.7 56.6
Points From 3-Pointers 38.3 36.3
Points From Free Throws 16.4 16.1
Shooting NO TOR
Field Goals Made 45.6 40.4
Field Goals Attempted 89.2 87.4
Field Goal % 51.2% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 32.9 28.3
2 Pointers Attempted 55.5 51.2
2 Point Shooting % 59.2% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 12.8 12.1
3 Pointers Attempted 33.7 36.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.9% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 16.4 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 21.0
Free Throw % 77.9% 76.6%
Ball Control NO TOR
Rebounds 50.5 44.5
Rebounds - Defensive 38.2 33.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 11.0
Turnovers 12.4 13.4
Blocked Shots 5.5 4.4
Steals 7.5 6.4
Fouls 16.2 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NO TOR
Total Possessions 101.8
Effective Scoring Chances 101.7 99.4
% of Possessions with NO TOR
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 44.5%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 31.4%
Player Fouled 15.9% 15.9%
Turnover 12.2% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken NO TOR
Shot Blocked 5.1% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.8% 22.3%