NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DET MIA
Points 105.9 114.1
Total Points   220.1
Points From 2-Pointers 56.1 58.9
Points From 3-Pointers 34.1 35.4
Points From Free Throws 15.8 19.9
Shooting DET MIA
Field Goals Made 39.4 41.2
Field Goals Attempted 84.7 84.7
Field Goal % 46.5% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 28.0 29.4
2 Pointers Attempted 51.1 52.8
2 Point Shooting % 54.9% 55.8%
3 Pointers Made 11.4 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 33.6 31.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 15.8 19.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.1 24.3
Free Throw % 78.3% 81.9%
Ball Control DET MIA
Rebounds 46.5 46.6
Rebounds - Defensive 36.5 37.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 9.1
Turnovers 13.7 10.9
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.8
Steals 5.5 8.1
Fouls 18.4 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Detroit

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DET MIA
Total Possessions 100.5
Effective Scoring Chances 96.7 98.7
% of Possessions with DET MIA
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 30.0% 28.7%
Player Fouled 14.7% 18.3%
Turnover 13.7% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken DET MIA
Shot Blocked 4.6% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.0% 20.0%