NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DET SA
Points 111.3 117.9
Total Points   229.3
Points From 2-Pointers 62.6 64.6
Points From 3-Pointers 32.7 35.9
Points From Free Throws 16.1 17.4
Shooting DET SA
Field Goals Made 42.2 44.3
Field Goals Attempted 91.7 89.1
Field Goal % 46.0% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 31.3 32.3
2 Pointers Attempted 61.0 55.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 58.0%
3 Pointers Made 10.9 12.0
3 Pointers Attempted 30.8 33.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 16.1 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 22.5
Free Throw % 78.3% 77.6%
Ball Control DET SA
Rebounds 48.4 50.1
Rebounds - Defensive 37.0 39.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 10.5
Turnovers 13.3 12.8
Blocked Shots 4.2 7.2
Steals 7.4 7.6
Fouls 17.2 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DET SA
Total Possessions 104.7
Effective Scoring Chances 102.9 102.3
% of Possessions with DET SA
2 Point Attempt 51.2% 47.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 28.6%
Player Fouled 13.6% 16.5%
Turnover 12.7% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken DET SA
Shot Blocked 8.2% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 22.4% 22.1%