NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR IND
Points 115.5 129.0
Total Points   244.5
Points From 2-Pointers 67.0 74.0
Points From 3-Pointers 28.5 40.0
Points From Free Throws 19.9 15.0
Shooting TOR IND
Field Goals Made 43.0 50.3
Field Goals Attempted 89.3 92.7
Field Goal % 48.2% 54.3%
2 Pointers Made 33.5 37.0
2 Pointers Attempted 61.4 57.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 63.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.5 13.3
3 Pointers Attempted 27.9 34.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 19.9 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 26.0 19.4
Free Throw % 76.6% 77.5%
Ball Control TOR IND
Rebounds 44.9 48.6
Rebounds - Defensive 32.5 36.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 12.0
Turnovers 12.6 11.9
Blocked Shots 4.3 6.9
Steals 6.3 6.5
Fouls 16.6 18.4

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR IND
Total Possessions 104.0
Effective Scoring Chances 103.8 104.1
% of Possessions with TOR IND
2 Point Attempt 51.5% 49.1%
3 Point Attempt 23.4% 29.6%
Player Fouled 17.7% 16.0%
Turnover 12.1% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR IND
Shot Blocked 7.6% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 27.1%