NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU LAC
Points 113.5 116.4
Total Points   230.0
Points From 2-Pointers 56.3 58.4
Points From 3-Pointers 38.7 36.2
Points From Free Throws 18.5 21.8
Shooting HOU LAC
Field Goals Made 41.1 41.3
Field Goals Attempted 90.8 84.9
Field Goal % 45.2% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 28.2 29.2
2 Pointers Attempted 53.9 51.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 56.3%
3 Pointers Made 12.9 12.1
3 Pointers Attempted 36.9 33.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 18.5 21.8
Free Throws Attempted 24.1 26.3
Free Throw % 76.8% 83.0%
Ball Control HOU LAC
Rebounds 48.6 49.6
Rebounds - Defensive 34.5 38.3
Rebounds - Offensive 14.1 11.4
Turnovers 10.6 12.3
Blocked Shots 4.5 5.1
Steals 7.0 6.5
Fouls 18.7 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU LAC
Total Possessions 101.3
Effective Scoring Chances 104.8 100.4
% of Possessions with HOU LAC
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 28.9%
Player Fouled 17.3% 18.4%
Turnover 10.5% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU LAC
Shot Blocked 6.1% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.9% 24.8%