NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU DAL
Points 110.9 116.4
Total Points   227.3
Points From 2-Pointers 54.5 57.5
Points From 3-Pointers 37.9 38.7
Points From Free Throws 18.5 20.2
Shooting HOU DAL
Field Goals Made 39.9 41.7
Field Goals Attempted 90.9 85.6
Field Goal % 43.9% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 27.2 28.8
2 Pointers Attempted 54.3 48.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.1% 58.9%
3 Pointers Made 12.6 12.9
3 Pointers Attempted 36.6 36.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 18.5 20.2
Free Throws Attempted 24.1 27.2
Free Throw % 76.8% 74.4%
Ball Control HOU DAL
Rebounds 50.0 51.3
Rebounds - Defensive 36.5 40.0
Rebounds - Offensive 13.5 11.3
Turnovers 10.9 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.8 5.7
Steals 6.8 5.9
Fouls 20.2 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU DAL
Total Possessions 102.0
Effective Scoring Chances 104.7 101.7
% of Possessions with HOU DAL
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 42.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.0% 32.0%
Player Fouled 17.2% 19.8%
Turnover 10.6% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU DAL
Shot Blocked 6.7% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 23.7%