NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU OKC
Points 110.9 119.9
Total Points   230.8
Points From 2-Pointers 51.1 61.9
Points From 3-Pointers 40.4 37.4
Points From Free Throws 19.4 20.5
Shooting HOU OKC
Field Goals Made 39.0 43.4
Field Goals Attempted 91.3 87.6
Field Goal % 42.7% 49.6%
2 Pointers Made 25.6 31.0
2 Pointers Attempted 53.1 53.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 57.9%
3 Pointers Made 13.5 12.5
3 Pointers Attempted 38.3 34.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 19.4 20.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.2 25.1
Free Throw % 76.8% 81.8%
Ball Control HOU OKC
Rebounds 51.3 49.6
Rebounds - Defensive 36.3 39.6
Rebounds - Offensive 15.1 10.0
Turnovers 13.0 11.7
Blocked Shots 4.7 7.3
Steals 6.9 7.3
Fouls 19.2 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU OKC
Total Possessions 103.6
Effective Scoring Chances 105.7 102.0
% of Possessions with HOU OKC
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 29.5%
Player Fouled 16.6% 18.6%
Turnover 12.5% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU OKC
Shot Blocked 8.5% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 21.6%