NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA UTA
Points 121.0 117.4
Total Points   238.4
Points From 2-Pointers 61.0 62.7
Points From 3-Pointers 44.3 37.0
Points From Free Throws 15.7 17.8
Shooting SA UTA
Field Goals Made 45.3 43.7
Field Goals Attempted 93.0 92.8
Field Goal % 48.7% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 30.5 31.3
2 Pointers Attempted 54.5 58.4
2 Point Shooting % 55.9% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 14.8 12.3
3 Pointers Attempted 38.5 34.4
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 15.7 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 21.2
Free Throw % 77.6% 83.7%
Ball Control SA UTA
Rebounds 48.8 51.0
Rebounds - Defensive 36.7 37.7
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 13.3
Turnovers 12.1 13.6
Blocked Shots 7.9 4.9
Steals 7.3 6.8
Fouls 15.2 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA UTA
Total Possessions 104.7
Effective Scoring Chances 104.7 104.4
% of Possessions with SA UTA
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 32.4% 28.4%
Player Fouled 14.8% 14.5%
Turnover 11.6% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA UTA
Shot Blocked 5.5% 8.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 26.6%