NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA MIN
Points 104.7 114.0
Total Points   218.7
Points From 2-Pointers 53.6 60.6
Points From 3-Pointers 34.7 36.6
Points From Free Throws 16.4 16.8
Shooting SA MIN
Field Goals Made 38.4 42.5
Field Goals Attempted 86.5 87.7
Field Goal % 44.4% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 26.8 30.3
2 Pointers Attempted 53.7 56.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.9% 53.9%
3 Pointers Made 11.6 12.2
3 Pointers Attempted 32.8 31.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 38.7%
Free Throws Made 16.4 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 21.9
Free Throw % 77.6% 76.8%
Ball Control SA MIN
Rebounds 47.9 49.8
Rebounds - Defensive 36.7 39.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 10.8
Turnovers 14.1 12.4
Blocked Shots 5.4 5.3
Steals 6.5 8.4
Fouls 16.5 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA MIN
Total Possessions 101.7
Effective Scoring Chances 98.7 100.1
% of Possessions with SA MIN
2 Point Attempt 46.7% 49.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 27.5%
Player Fouled 16.3% 16.3%
Turnover 13.9% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA MIN
Shot Blocked 6.2% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 22.8%