NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO DAL
Points 111.9 113.5
Total Points   225.4
Points From 2-Pointers 56.5 55.1
Points From 3-Pointers 36.5 41.4
Points From Free Throws 18.9 17.0
Shooting PHO DAL
Field Goals Made 40.4 41.3
Field Goals Attempted 85.2 88.8
Field Goal % 47.4% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 28.2 27.6
2 Pointers Attempted 52.8 51.1
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 54.0%
3 Pointers Made 12.2 13.8
3 Pointers Attempted 32.4 37.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 18.9 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 22.8
Free Throw % 80.9% 74.4%
Ball Control PHO DAL
Rebounds 49.7 47.6
Rebounds - Defensive 38.3 35.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 12.1
Turnovers 13.0 10.6
Blocked Shots 4.4 4.5
Steals 6.4 6.8
Fouls 17.7 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO DAL
Total Possessions 100.6
Effective Scoring Chances 99.1 102.1
% of Possessions with PHO DAL
2 Point Attempt 46.4% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 33.0%
Player Fouled 17.5% 17.6%
Turnover 12.9% 10.6%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO DAL
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 24.0%