NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO MIN
Points 107.5 110.8
Total Points   218.3
Points From 2-Pointers 53.9 53.8
Points From 3-Pointers 33.7 39.1
Points From Free Throws 19.9 17.9
Shooting PHO MIN
Field Goals Made 38.2 39.9
Field Goals Attempted 81.7 86.1
Field Goal % 46.7% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 26.9 26.9
2 Pointers Attempted 52.3 52.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 51.7%
3 Pointers Made 11.2 13.0
3 Pointers Attempted 29.5 34.0
3 Point Shooting % 38.2% 38.3%
Free Throws Made 19.9 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 24.6 23.3
Free Throw % 80.9% 76.8%
Ball Control PHO MIN
Rebounds 47.5 47.0
Rebounds - Defensive 36.8 35.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 11.9
Turnovers 14.0 11.8
Blocked Shots 4.8 5.0
Steals 6.7 7.9
Fouls 17.7 18.4

Playing Style Advantage: Minnesota

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO MIN
Total Possessions 99.5
Effective Scoring Chances 96.2 99.7
% of Possessions with PHO MIN
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 30.0%
Player Fouled 18.5% 17.8%
Turnover 14.1% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO MIN
Shot Blocked 5.9% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.4% 24.4%