NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKC LAL
Points 119.2 112.2
Total Points   231.4
Points From 2-Pointers 62.6 56.6
Points From 3-Pointers 42.0 36.6
Points From Free Throws 14.7 19.0
Shooting OKC LAL
Field Goals Made 45.3 40.5
Field Goals Attempted 92.8 85.5
Field Goal % 48.8% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 31.3 28.3
2 Pointers Attempted 56.7 53.1
2 Point Shooting % 55.1% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 14.0 12.2
3 Pointers Attempted 36.0 32.4
3 Point Shooting % 38.8% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 14.7 19.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 24.6
Free Throw % 81.8% 77.5%
Ball Control OKC LAL
Rebounds 47.6 48.7
Rebounds - Defensive 37.4 38.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 10.1
Turnovers 11.1 14.4
Blocked Shots 6.1 4.9
Steals 8.2 6.3
Fouls 17.2 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Okla City

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKC LAL
Total Possessions 103.7
Effective Scoring Chances 102.8 99.4
% of Possessions with OKC LAL
2 Point Attempt 49.0% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 31.1% 27.9%
Player Fouled 13.9% 16.6%
Turnover 10.7% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKC LAL
Shot Blocked 5.9% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.9% 21.3%