NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKC PHO
Points 116.0 111.4
Total Points   227.4
Points From 2-Pointers 58.9 53.2
Points From 3-Pointers 39.9 38.5
Points From Free Throws 17.2 19.7
Shooting OKC PHO
Field Goals Made 42.7 39.4
Field Goals Attempted 90.5 84.7
Field Goal % 47.2% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 29.4 26.6
2 Pointers Attempted 55.6 51.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 52.0%
3 Pointers Made 13.3 12.8
3 Pointers Attempted 34.9 33.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.1% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 17.2 19.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 24.4
Free Throw % 81.8% 80.9%
Ball Control OKC PHO
Rebounds 45.6 51.1
Rebounds - Defensive 34.8 38.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 12.6
Turnovers 10.7 15.5
Blocked Shots 5.8 5.5
Steals 8.5 6.5
Fouls 17.3 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKC PHO
Total Possessions 102.1
Effective Scoring Chances 102.2 99.2
% of Possessions with OKC PHO
2 Point Attempt 48.3% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 28.7%
Player Fouled 16.5% 17.0%
Turnover 10.5% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKC PHO
Shot Blocked 6.6% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 26.6%