Miami (Away) New England (Home)
Win Odds 69.4% 30.6%
Spread -4.5 +4.5
Cover Odds 64.5% 35.5%
Proj Score 23.9 15.8

NOTE: The spread for this game has been taken off the board at major sportsbooks or flagged by our sytem as stale or suspect. This Similar Games analysis uses the previously available spread.

Sim Score Date Away Team Overall Power Rtg Predictive Power Rtg Avg Score Margin Projection Home Team Overall Power Rtg Predictive Power Rtg Avg Score Margin
10/06/24 Miami 21.5 20.7 -9.0 69.4% 30.6% New England 23.5 25.0 +1.5
 
Team Like Miami Team Like New England
# Sim Score Date Name Overall Power Rtg Predictive Power Rtg Avg Score Margin Score Name Overall Power Rtg Predictive Power Rtg Avg Score Margin
1 25.2 10/21/18 Minnesota 24.6 23.1 -1.3 37 17 NY Jets 24.6 25.9 +4.3
2 29.7 10/29/23 Atlanta 22.6 20.8 -2.6 23 28 Tennessee 24.0 26.1 -2.2
3 30.2 10/13/22 Washington 15.2 18.4 -7.6 12 7 Chicago 24.7 22.0 -4.0
4 30.4 09/25/11 Miami 17.3 21.6 -12.0 16 17 Cleveland 19.2 22.0 -1.0
5 31.0 10/02/22 LA Chargers 10.1 17.7 -8.7 34 24 Houston 13.2 19.9 -3.3
6 31.6 11/06/22 LA Chargers 20.6 21.2 -3.6 20 17 Atlanta 22.7 24.1 -0.6
7 31.6 09/14/03 Miami 17.5 23.1 -1.0 21 10 NY Jets 26.1 27.8 -3.0
8 31.9 09/26/04 Pittsburgh 17.6 19.3 -7.0 13 3 Miami 19.8 22.5 -6.5
9 32.0 10/16/22 Minnesota 32.9 24.3 +2.6 24 16 Miami 31.6 28.7 -3.2
10 32.5 09/23/12 NY Jets 23.4 24.9 +1.5 23 20 Miami 23.9 26.1 +1.0
11 32.9 09/12/21 Denver 21.3 22.0 -7.9 27 13 NY Giants 22.8 23.6 -3.7
12 32.9 10/08/23 Cincinnati 22.1 22.0 -11.3 34 20 Arizona 18.9 23.0 -3.5
13 33.2 10/27/13 Pittsburgh 19.6 20.6 -4.2 18 21 Las Vegas 22.1 23.1 -4.5
14 33.3 10/06/16 Arizona 20.5 21.9 +3.0 33 21 San Francisco 22.2 21.2 -4.3
15 33.5 09/12/10 Miami 24.7 24.7 -3.0 15 10 Buffalo 26.1 26.1 +0.3
16 33.6 09/25/22 Las Vegas 15.6 19.6 -5.5 22 24 Tennessee 18.8 21.1 -17.5
17 35.0 10/07/07 LA Chargers 18.0 20.9 -8.5 41 3 Denver 23.5 20.2 -5.8
18 35.1 10/18/15 Kansas City 18.6 20.7 -5.2 10 16 Minnesota 22.3 25.3 +1.8
19 35.2 10/01/23 Baltimore 29.5 28.0 +5.3 28 3 Cleveland 34.7 33.2 +13.7
20 35.2 10/16/11 Philadelphia 12.1 21.6 -1.4 20 13 Washington 22.8 23.4 +5.0
21 35.5 09/14/14 New England 28.1 26.4 -13.0 30 7 Minnesota 31.0 30.2 +28.0
22 35.5 09/30/12 San Francisco 28.0 26.3 +1.7 34 0 NY Jets 30.9 29.5 +2.0
23 35.6 10/23/05 Baltimore 19.8 22.1 -5.4 6 10 Chicago 22.1 26.8 +5.6
24 35.9 10/09/16 Cincinnati 31.5 27.1 -1.0 14 28 Dallas 31.1 26.8 +6.0
25 35.9 10/17/10 New Orleans 18.7 19.5 -0.6 31 6 Tampa Bay 31.8 25.9 -1.5
26 35.9 10/03/04 LA Rams 18.9 19.6 -4.3 24 14 San Francisco 16.4 19.7 -13.0
27 36.2 11/03/19 Cleveland 23.2 23.3 -6.9 19 24 Denver 22.0 24.5 -3.3
28 36.2 09/18/16 Green Bay 28.4 26.9 +4.0 14 17 Minnesota 30.9 28.7 +9.0
29 36.4 10/30/22 New England 21.2 23.0 +1.3 22 17 NY Jets 32.7 28.3 +3.1
30 36.4 09/16/18 Houston 12.0 18.9 -7.0 17 20 Tennessee 21.0 21.9 -7.0
31 36.5 09/27/09 Chicago 23.8 23.3 -1.5 25 19 Seattle 23.1 26.9 +7.5
32 36.6 10/03/04 Washington 18.4 23.1 -1.0 13 17 Cleveland 23.6 23.9 -2.3
33 36.7 10/10/21 Green Bay 25.2 24.3 -1.3 25 22 Cincinnati 26.5 25.5 +4.3
34 36.7 09/09/13 Houston 28.7 25.0 -5.4 31 28 LA Chargers 21.7 24.0 -2.6
35 36.9 10/23/22 Green Bay 27.3 23.5 -2.7 21 23 Washington 21.6 21.4 -5.5
36 37.2 09/09/07 Denver 24.3 25.1 -4.7 15 14 Buffalo 31.3 30.8 +4.1
37 37.5 10/02/16 Dallas 22.9 22.4 +5.7 24 17 San Francisco 23.5 21.7 -3.3
38 37.5 09/18/22 New England 21.3 24.1 -13.0 17 14 Pittsburgh 33.5 28.0 +3.0
39 37.5 10/09/05 Baltimore 15.8 17.5 -7.3 17 35 Detroit 19.9 23.9 -7.3
40 37.6 09/15/24 NY Jets 19.0 20.0 -13.0 24 17 Tennessee 15.5 20.4 -7.0
41 37.7 09/17/17 Tennessee 22.3 21.5 -10.0 37 16 Jacksonville 27.5 28.0 +22.0
42 37.9 11/12/23 New Orleans 24.9 25.8 +2.7 19 27 Minnesota 29.7 27.9 +1.8
43 38.2 10/01/23 Minnesota 11.3 20.2 -4.3 21 13 Carolina 11.4 17.3 -9.0
44 38.5 09/16/12 Las Vegas 15.6 18.2 -8.0 13 35 Miami 20.6 23.0 -20.0
45 38.5 10/24/21 Kansas City 28.8 27.8 +1.5 3 27 Tennessee 29.2 28.4 +0.8
46 38.8 09/24/06 Philadelphia 17.2 21.6 +4.0 38 24 San Francisco 22.0 22.3 0.0
47 38.8 10/01/15 Baltimore 22.8 25.1 -4.7 23 20 Pittsburgh 35.6 31.6 +8.0
48 39.3 10/06/19 Arizona 13.7 17.2 -10.3 26 23 Cincinnati 14.5 20.1 -13.3
49 39.6 10/05/03 LA Chargers 12.8 17.6 -13.5 21 27 Jacksonville 12.1 19.2 -9.0
50 39.6 10/10/10 Atlanta 33.7 26.4 +8.3 20 10 Cleveland 31.9 29.2 -2.3
51 39.7 10/13/13 Detroit 26.3 26.5 +1.6 31 17 Cleveland 31.3 27.4 +1.4
52 39.9 10/17/04 Kansas City 19.7 20.8 -5.3 16 22 Jacksonville 31.2 25.4 -2.6
53 40.0 09/30/12 Cincinnati 26.4 23.2 -5.7 27 10 Jacksonville 25.1 23.8 -6.0
54 40.0 11/06/17 Detroit 25.6 26.3 +1.0 30 17 Green Bay 30.3 27.6 +0.4
55 40.2 10/13/19 Atlanta 15.5 18.9 -10.0 33 34 Arizona 15.9 18.6 -7.6
56 40.3 11/13/11 Pittsburgh 28.1 27.8 +3.8 24 17 Cincinnati 34.0 29.8 +6.9
57 40.3 11/06/22 Miami 30.4 25.1 -1.8 35 32 Chicago 24.9 23.6 -3.3
58 40.5 10/21/12 Green Bay 31.8 30.7 +3.2 30 20 LA Rams 28.8 27.9 -0.2
59 40.8 11/04/18 LA Chargers 32.1 26.6 +4.6 25 17 Seattle 31.4 30.8 +5.7
60 40.9 10/02/22 NY Jets 21.5 19.4 -9.7 24 20 Pittsburgh 21.4 21.9 -4.0
61 41.0 09/17/23 NY Giants 20.1 19.6 -40.0 31 28 Arizona 13.6 21.3 -4.0
62 41.0 10/06/22 Indianapolis 19.9 20.2 -7.0 12 9 Denver 18.2 21.0 -0.5
63 41.2 09/19/21 San Francisco 24.8 25.4 +8.0 17 11 Philadelphia 24.9 28.2 +26.0
64 41.3 09/21/14 San Francisco 32.2 30.5 +1.5 14 23 Arizona 37.9 31.2 +6.0
65 41.4 11/09/09 Pittsburgh 33.7 29.1 +5.4 28 10 Denver 39.2 32.6 +6.3
66 41.5 09/24/06 Chicago 33.2 32.2 +26.5 19 16 Minnesota 35.0 28.7 +3.0
67 41.7 10/22/17 Denver 22.4 23.3 +2.2 0 21 LA Chargers 24.0 24.5 -2.5
68 41.8 09/16/19 Cleveland 13.6 18.0 -30.0 23 3 NY Jets 16.1 22.6 -1.0
69 41.9 10/06/13 Kansas City 31.1 29.4 +15.3 26 17 Tennessee 32.8 29.1 +7.3
70 42.0 09/22/13 Houston 33.3 26.0 +4.5 9 30 Baltimore 34.4 28.6 -7.0
71 42.0 09/28/08 Cleveland 15.7 19.9 -13.3 20 12 Cincinnati 20.9 24.4 -9.0
72 42.1 09/30/19 Cincinnati 15.5 22.1 -9.7 3 27 Pittsburgh 21.1 25.4 -12.0
73 42.1 10/09/16 Buffalo 29.2 28.6 +4.8 30 19 LA Rams 31.4 24.7 -3.3
74 42.6 11/01/20 Indianapolis 26.1 24.8 +7.0 41 21 Detroit 27.6 25.7 -1.5
75 42.6 10/02/22 Arizona 11.1 16.3 -8.3 26 16 Carolina 18.7 21.5 +1.0