NFL Week 2 Betting Picks, Upset Picks & Analysis (2024)

From game picks to teasers, touchdown props, and moneyline underdogs, our NFL Week 2 betting and upset picks article is ready for overreaction week.

September 13, 2024 - by Jason Lisk

Welcome to our NFL Week 2 betting and upset picks article.

This article is available to premium subscribers (or free trial subscribers). We will post a new article every week and add content segments throughout the week.

When a new segment is published or updated, we will add it to the link list below.

Week 2 Betting & Upset Picks: Published Content

Mon: Eagles vs. Falcons MNF Analysis
A look at the final game for Week 2.

Fri: Chasing Touchdowns, Week 2
Our favorite TD props for Sunday’s games.

Fri: Sunday Supplements
Late-week adds to the picks as we look to Sunday.

Thu: Fading the Public, Week 2
A cross-over looking into our public pool pick data.

Thu: Campus Visit
A review of some of our top CFB model picks for the week.

Thu: Dolphins vs. Bills Analysis
Thoughts on this week’s TNF AFC East showdown.

Wed: Week 2 Injury News that Matters
Key situations that could lead to line movement.

Wed: NFL Week 2 Upset Picks
Our three favorite underdog moneyline picks.

Tue: Teaser Tuesdays (Week 2)
Our favorite early teaser plays for NFL Week 2.

Mon: Early Picks to Consider
Some early betting lines that caught our interest.

Mon: Weekly Betting Recap
Key notes about the previous week, and some interesting data.

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Mon Sep 16

Eagles vs. Falcons Analysis

Monday night is for the birds as Philadelphia and Atlanta face off. The Eagles are coming off a nice win in Brazil 11 days ago, while Atlanta’s first game with Kirk Cousins at QB wasn’t exactly a rousing success.

Where Our Models Stand on the Key Lines

Spread: Currently at Philadelphia -5.5. It opened at -6 on Monday, and we listed Atlanta +6 as an early pick to consider, and also listed their moneyline play in our Upset Picks. Atlanta is also a model pick at 53% to cover the current +5.5 line.

Total: 45.5 points. This game opened at 48 on Monday but has continued to move down in light of the A.J. Brown injury news (see below). Our models lean toward the Over.

Moneyline: -236 on PHI and +207 on ATL. Our models consider this a playable moneyline pick on the underdog Falcons.

Key News and Notes

Philadelphia WR A.J. Brown will miss this game with a hamstring injury suffered in practice on Friday. The star wide receiver’s absence has resulted in downward line movement in both the spread and total. WR Jahan Dotson, acquired in an August trade, should see more action opposite DeVonta Smith for the Eagles.

Player Prop Notes

• Eagles RB Saquon Barkley is the most popular TD prop tonight, according to BetMGM Insights, at -190 odds. Sure, Barkley might be likely to score, but that number is so high as to rob any value. You have to pay nearly double what you could win. For perspective, in the 10 best total touchdown seasons by a RB in the last three years, those backs averaged 18.1 touchdowns for the season and scored in 72% of their games. If Barkley is on the path to leading the NFL in touchdowns, then maybe there is slight value here. If he is not and is just coming off a big game, this number is high.
• One that we do like at longer odds is Falcons WR Drake London, who you can get at +230 to score an anytime TD at FanDuel. That number is below our projected TD averages for London, and we like getting a team’s No. 1 receiver in a higher total game (even if it has dropped a bit) coming off a poor debut for Cousins, at odds longer than +200. If you don’t want to back London, you could consider TE, Kyle Pitts (also +230). The Eagles gave up two receiving touchdowns in the opener and 10 receiving touchdowns in the last five games going back to last season (and two of those five games were against the Giants). So we like playing one of the key receiving options to score a receiving touchdown.

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Fri Sep 13

Chasing Touchdowns, Week 2

We are on the hunt for some scores again, heading to Week 2. These picks will range from stars near the top of the odds board to score on Sunday to some deeper cuts trying to find hidden value on longer shots. All the players we recommend here will be for “anytime TD scorers” in the game. If you like to play the longer odds of “first TD scorer” props, the analysis for a lot of these guys is similar, but the chances are much lower.

Also, we list the best odds available at either BetMGM, FanDuel, or DraftKings. Be sure to shop lines at all the books you can access because you will see a lot more variation in some of these TD market numbers, and getting the best price can make a big difference over the course of a full season.

We list our TD chasing in descending order of odds/risk:

WR Deebo Samuel (+105 at FanDuel)

With Christian McCaffrey out, we like Deebo Samuel’s odds to score a touchdown to go up. He is effectively the second running back and will get carries, including potentially at the goal line like last week when he scored. He also led the team in receiving targets and is always a threat to score on a catch and run.

RB Zach Charbonnet (+120 at FanDuel)

Kenneth Walker is doubtful for Sunday’s matchup at New England, making Charbonnet the clear lead back. Walker and Charbonnet can block each other to some extent, but when one is out, the other projects as a top fantasy option. Charbonnet should get opportunities at the goal line and also showed that he can score as a receiver, taking one for a 30-yard TD reception last week. We also like the +600 to score multiple TDs prop if you want a little more risk, as we would put the odds of that around 18%.

WR Malik Nabers (+155 at FanDuel)

Nabers was a full participant on Friday and is good to play on Sunday. He probably didn’t want to miss this matchup. Tampa Bay scored four receiving touchdowns to each of their top three wide receivers, with Mike Evans catching two last week. Washington has given up 20 receiving TDs to wide receivers alone over the last 10 games, including multiple TD games to Mike Evans, CeeDee Lamb, and Cooper Kupp. Nabers has that kind of upside against this poor defense.

WR Jerry Jeudy (+280 at FanDuel)

We like grabbing Jeudy at these long odds for a few reasons. First, he was the only Browns WR to score last week, and there’s a possibility that the gap between Amari Cooper and the younger Jeudy in the market is too wide, as they had a similar number of targets in game 1. Second, TE David Njoku is out, removing another red zone threat to draw potential targets away. Third, the Jaguars have secondary issues, placing Tyson Campbell on IR.

 

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Fri Sep 13

Sunday Supplements, Week 2

In this section, we’ll note any additional picks that have emerged throughout the week. We’ve already listed our Early Week 1 Picks (which had four different picks) as well as Upset Picks and Teasers. We will also have a separate TD Scorer section posted, so this will not include any potential TD props.

Indianapolis (-2.5) at Green Bay

• Top-rated model spread pick
• Why are we adding this now? We were waiting to see where this one settled as we got more news on the Packers quarterback situation. With the line under the key number of 3 at many places (and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur trying to sell the idea that Love could play while not practicing), we think this is the time to strike.
• Our model picks have gone 17-13-2 when rated at 55% to cover since the start of 2022.
• Either Jordan Love will play when he shouldn’t and will be very limited in mobility (unlikely), or Malik Willis will start for the Packers. Willis is a significant downgrade at quarterback. We expect the Packers to take a run-heavy and conservative approach and, if they do fall behind, will have a hard time executing a volume pass game.

Detroit (-7.5) vs. Tampa Bay

• Model playable pick.
• Why are we adding this now? The line has moved from 6.5 to 7.5 points, so we are getting a worse number than at the start of the week. However, this movement has also triggered our models to see that this is a much better play now, with the movement above the key number on the favorite.
• The movement has likely been driven by the Bucs’ injury report and practice news since the start of the week. OT Luke Goedeke has missed practice in concussion protocol, and several key defensive players are also showing up.

Bo Nix Over 170.5 Pass Yards (DraftKings)

• Our projection for this game is 193 pass yards for Nix, based on the spread, Over/Under total, and expected pass/run distribution for Denver.
• This line is really low, and probably an overreaction to last week where Nix debuted with 138 yards due to a 3.3 yards per attempt average, and where Pittsburgh allowed only 155 pass yards, while Atlanta ran an extremely low 50 plays from scrimmage.
• While we do not expect Nix to throw 41 passes again, this number is low enough we can get there on even modest efficiency or average volume, such as 30 pass attempts for a sub-par 6.0 yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield Under 262.5 Pass Yards (DraftKings)

• Our projection for this game is 240 passing yards for Mayfield based on spread and total and team run/pass splits.
• This line is also potentially pushed up in a Week 1 reaction, where Mayfield threw for 289 yards against Washington’s porous defense, and Detroit allowed over 300 pass yards to Matthew Stafford in a high-total close game that went to overtime.
• Mayfield is likely to be without a starting tackle in Luke Goedeke, giving a matchup advantage to the Lions’ D-Line that can reduce the time Mayfield has to throw, leading to quicker passes and fewer big plays.

Zamir White Over 11.5 Rush Attempts (+112 at FanDuel)

• White had 13 rushes for 44 attempts in the Week 1 loss to the Chargers.
• Our models have this Raiders-Ravens game as an under-lean on passing production and volume and over-lean on rushes.
• We expect Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce to adopt a conservative approach as the road dog here and for White to be featured on early-down runs as they try to shorten the game.
• The Ravens’ offensive line was also struggling in the opener, something that could impact how likely the Ravens are to pull away and maintain long drives, and White should be the beneficiary of more runs in a more conservative game.

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Thu Sep 12

Fading the Public, Week 2

At BetIQ and our companion site, PoolGenius, we have access to a lot of data on how people are picking games in pools across the country at a lot of different prominent websites. Now, we acknowledge that our pick data is not the same as individual sports books that report on which games and sides are drawing the highest handle and ticket percentages. However, those specific notes from books also have their own issues: sometimes, those shareable notes do not provide context on what specific lines the bets came in on and whether that distribution changed with line movement. Sometimes, one book will have a different betting pattern than another.

So while our public pick data might not be capturing specific betting patterns, it is a pretty good indicator of what Joe Q. Public thinks about a matchup. We can see the games where the public is far more confident in a favorite winning, or overvalues the underdog. We can compare the spread pick data to the game winner data to see where there are discrepancies, and compare that to the line movement in the betting markets we are seeing.

So in this segment, we are going to identify some of the notable public darlings or teams that the public is avoiding, and see track how those teams do through the year.