NFL Week 3 Betting Picks, Upset Picks & Analysis (2024)

From game picks to teasers, touchdown props, and moneyline underdogs, our NFL Week 3 betting and upset picks article has you covered.

September 20, 2024 - by Jason Lisk

Welcome to our NFL Week 3 betting and upset picks article.

This article is available to premium subscribers (or free trial subscribers). We will post a new article every week and add content segments throughout the week.

When a new segment is published or updated, we will add it to the link list below.

Week 3 Betting & Upset Picks: Published Content

Fri: Chasing Touchdowns, Week 3
Our favorite TD props for Sunday’s games.

Fri: Sunday Supplements
Late-week adds to the picks as we look to Sunday.

Thu: Jets vs. Patriots Analysis
Thoughts on the Jets vs. Patriots rivalry game.

Thu: College Football Picks
A review of some of our top CFB model picks for the week.

Thu: Fading the Public
A cross-over looking into our public pool pick data.

Wed: Bonus! Saints Deep Dive
A statistical dive into teams that get off to hot starts.

Wed: Week 3 Injury News
Key situations that could lead to line movement.

Wed: Week 3 Upset Picks
Our three favorite underdog moneyline picks.

Tue: Teaser Tuesdays
Our favorite early teaser plays for NFL Week 3.

Mon: Early Picks to Consider
Some early betting lines that caught our interest.

Mon: Week 2 Betting Recap
Key notes about the previous week and some interesting data.

Week 3 Betting & Upset Picks: Upcoming Content

Mon: MNF Doubleheader Analysis
Week 3 has two Monday matchups: Bills-Jags and Bengals-Commanders.

 

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Fri Sep 20

Chasing Touchdowns, Week 3

We are on the hunt for some scores again with our Week 3 touchdown props picks. Last week, we hit on Zach Charbonnet and Malik Nabers both at plus odds. Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel had 8 catches and 110 yards, and Jerry Jeudy had 5 catches for 73 yards, but neither could find the end zone.

All the players we recommend here will be for “anytime TD scorers” in the game. If you like to play the longer odds of “first TD scorer” props, the analysis for a lot of these guys is similar, but the chances are much lower.

Also, we list the best odds available at either BetMGM, FanDuel, or DraftKings. Be sure to shop lines at all the books you can access because you will see a lot more variation in some of these TD market numbers, and getting the best price can make a big difference over the course of a full season.

We list our TD chasing in descending order of odds/risk:

WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco (+130 at FanDuel, vs. LA Rams)

We will jump right back on the 49ers receiver bandwagon this week. With Deebo Samuel out this week, Brandon Aiyuk gets to be the alpha in this offense.

He’s off to a slow start this year, but that changes this week against a Rams’ secondary that was just torched for 130 yards and two touchdowns by Marvin Harrison, Jr.

WR Tyreek Hill, Miami (+190 at DraftKings, vs. Seattle)

The Miami Dolphins are going from Tua Tagovailoa to Skylar Thompson at QB, which is why you can get Tyreek Hill at significant plus odds to score a TD, with only an implied 34% chance. In a small sample of games, Hill hasn’t caught a TD pass from Thompson, though he did rush for one.

On the other hand, you can get one of the best playmakers in the NFL at notably longer odds than usual, because that QB downgrade is priced in. Hill has scored in 19 out of 35 games with Miami in the regular season.

He is capable of scoring in any number of ways, on the ground and through the air, and Miami will likely be trying to figure out how to get the ball into his hands.

RB Khalil Herbert, Chicago (+300 at BetMGM, vs. Indianapolis)

The Bears have been anemic running the ball so far (28th in rush yards, 29th in yards per carry in 2024), but they get a Colts team that has been extremely vulnerable to the run, giving up 150+ yard rushing performances to Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs.

You could choose to play this through D’Andre Swift at much shorter odds (typically +100), but we like a little longer shot here on a really good pure rusher (4.9 career yards per carry for Herbert) against a vulnerable rush defense.

Herbert only has four carries so far this year, but in their first two games the Bears have been trailing a lot and not running much. So we are banking on Herbert getting a few more shots this week.

WR Adam Thielen, Carolina (+400 at FanDuel, vs. Las Vegas)

This is a sentimental choice, but also one based on logic and what we think is a good value. The Panthers are making a QB change to Andy Dalton, and 36-year-old Dalton and 34-year-old Thielen might be ready to show the young guys a touchdown thing or two.

Last year, in Dalton’s only start for an injured Bryce Young in Seattle, Thielen had a season-high 11 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown. Young was missing lots of opportunities, and Thielen stood out as providing multiple (missed) chances for Young to make plays last week.

At these long odds of needing only a 20% chance of a score, the Dalton-Thielen veteran connection picking up where it left off abruptly a year ago seems to offer a nice risk vs. reward proposition.

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Fri Sep 20

Sunday Supplements, Week 3

In this section, we’ll note any additional picks that have emerged throughout the week. We’ve already listed our Early Week 3 Picks (which had three different picks than the ones listed below) as well as Upset Picks and Teasers.

We will also have a separate TD Scorer section posted later today, so this will not include any potential TD props for Sunday.