Staff Betting Picks For The 2022 NCAA Tournament

Our staff picks for the 2022 NCAA Tournament combine algorithmic model predictions with hands-on team analysis.

March 31, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

About These Picks

In the weeks leading up to the NCAA Tournament, we do a lot of hands-on team research. The goal is to identify things that happened during the college basketball regular season, such as lineup changes and player injuries, that may negatively impact the accuracy of algorithmic prediction models.

This research often reveals insights that lead us to believe there is value in a specific NCAA Tournament bet. We’ve been tracking how this handicapping approach has performed over the past several years, as well as refining our processes around identifying our favorite picks.

For March Madness 2022, we are now sharing some of these “staff picks” with our premium subscribers for the first time.

Final Picks Results for 2022

NCAA TOURNAMENT & OTHER CBB PICKS

Picks Settled: 34
Results of Settled Picks: 19-15 for +7.6 units

ALL MARCH PICKS

Picks Settled: 84
Results of Settled Picks: 48-36 for +20.1 units

Pick history for pre-tournament picks is posted here.

(Last Update: Tuesday, April 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

Archived NCAA Tournament & NIT Pick Results

Tuesday, March 15	Indiana -4 (vs. Wyoming)	Won 66-58
	Santa Clara +3.5 (at Washington State)	Lost 50-63
Thursday, March 17	Providence -2 (vs. South Dakota State)	Won 66-57
	New Mexico St +6.5 (vs. Connecticut)	Won 70-63
	Georgia State +23.5 (vs. Gonzaga)	Won 72-93
	Indiana +3 (vs. St. Mary’s)	Lost 53-82
	Murray State -2 (vs. San Francisco)	Won 92-87 (OT)
Friday, March 18	Jacksonville State +15.5 (vs. Auburn)	Lost 61-80
	UAB +8.5 (vs. Houston)	Lost 68-82
	Colgate +7.5 (vs. Wisconsin)	Won 60-67
Saturday, March 19	North Carolina +5.5 (vs. Baylor)	Won 93-86 (OT)
	Baylor to Miss Sweet 16 +250 (Futures pick on March 14)	Won 93-86 (OT)
	Saint Peter’s +7.5 (vs. Murray State)	Won 70-60
	Memphis +10 (vs. Gonzaga)	Won 78-82
Sunday, March 20	Ohio State +5 (vs. Villanova)	Lost 61-71
	Texas Tech -8 (vs. Notre Dame)	Lost 59-53
	Virginia PK (at North Texas)	Won 71-69 (OT)
	Purdue to Miss Sweet 16 +184	Lost 71-81
	Arizona to Miss Sweet 16 +350	Lost 80-85 (OT)
Monday, March 21	Abilene Christian +1.5 (vs. Ohio)	Won 91-86
Tuesday, March 22	St. Bonaventure +3.5 (vs. Virginia)	Won 52-51
	UTEP -4.5 (vs. Southern Utah)	Lost 69-82
Thursday, March 24	Chet Holmgren to Score 15 or More Points (-125)	Lost, 11 points, fouled out
	Gonzaga -9.5 (vs. Arkansas)	Lost 68-74
Friday, March 25	Saint Peter’s +12.5 (vs. Purdue)	Won 67-64
	Kansas -7.5 (vs. Providence)	Lost 66-61
	Combined Seed Number of Final Four Teams Over 10.5 -130 (2-unit Futures play from 3/16)	Won, clinched with No. 8 UNC win over UCLA
Saturday, March 26	Arkansas +4 (vs. Duke)	Lost 69-78
Sunday, March 27	North Carolina to Make FF +380 (Futures pick on 3/22, pre-Sweet 16)	Won 69-49
Tuesday, March 29	St. Bonaventure -1.5 (vs. Xavier)	Lost 77-84
	Texas A&M -2 (vs. Washington State)	Won 72-56
Saturday, April 2	South winner to win Final Four +400 (Futures pick on 3/16)	Lost 65-81
	North Carolina +4 (vs. Duke)	Won 81-77
Monday, April 4	North Carolina +4 (vs. Kansas)	Won 69-72

Archived Pick Writeups

Released Monday, March 14 at 2:05 p.m. ET

Georgia State +23.5 (vs. Gonzaga)

Best odds available at release time are DraftKings +23.5 (-110).
NCAA Tournament Game, Thursday at 4:15 p.m. ET (approx.) in Portland, Oregon on TNT.
This is a playable pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model and our team analysis.
Those who have been following BetIQ Daily and our conference-tournament staff picks know we have been tailing Georgia State successfully for last month.
This team is much better with its current lineup, as its starting center missed the first half of season.
Georgia State was underseeded based on quality, as we have it as a 14 seed, and it rated higher than three teams actually on the 14 line this year.
Georgia State has the size with two frontline players and plays excellent defense to at least compete against top team in tourney.

Released Monday, March 14 at 2:05 p.m. ET

Baylor to Miss Sweet 16 +250

This prop is available at FanDuel at release time.
Baylor has some injuries that could impact its performance, especially early in the tournament, and it has some variance in outcomes based on LJ Cryer’s status. Cryer hasn’t played since Feb. 16 and is a major question mark to contribute.
Our Round Odds have Baylor at 62.9 percent to make the Sweet 16 and 37.1 percent to miss, providing value at the +250 price, and down to +200.
If Baylor advances, it will face either North Carolina or Marquette in the second round.
North Carolina has a lot of frontcourt size, a place where Baylor is now relatively thin, and Marquette plays a style that is a plus in the tournament.

Released Monday, March 14 at 2:05 p.m. ET

Purdue to Miss Sweet 16 +184

This prop is available at FanDuel at release time.
Purdue is a great offensive team with poor defensive numbers for a top tournament team.
Our analysis shows that teams like Purdue who rate poorly on defense and creating turnovers have underperformed expectations.
Our Round Odds have Purdue at 50.1 percent to make the Sweet 16 and 49.9 percent to miss, so this is basically a coin flip, and we are getting plus odds value here.
If Purdue advances, its second-round matchup will be against either a defensive team in Texas that forces a lot of turnovers or a Virginia Tech team that just rolled through the ACC Tournament.

Released Tuesday, March 15 at 9:50 a.m. ET

Indiana -4 (vs. Wyoming)

Best odds available at release time are DraftKings -4 (-110).
NCAA First Four Game, Tuesday at 9:15 p.m. ET (approx.) in Dayton, Ohio on TruTV.
This is a play based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and team trends.
For full-season ratings, these teams are closer together, but Wyoming’s rating is inflated while Indiana is playing better recently.
Wyoming’s power rating was significantly inflated with easily its best opponent-adjusted game coming in the season opener, and with November results well above rest of season.
Meanwhile, Indiana has six above-average games (compared to its season-average rating) in the last seven contests.
Wyoming is a two-man show, with guard Hunter Maldonado and center Graham Ike, and Ike is an extremely high-usage post on offense.
Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis is one of the best interior defenders in country, and Indiana ranks top 10 in two-point field-goal rate allowed.
Wyoming is not a high-volume outside-shooting team and relies on getting the ball inside.

Released Tuesday, March 15 at 6:30 p.m. ET

Santa Clara +3.5 (at Washington State)

Best odds available at release time are DraftKings -4 (-110).
NIT First Round, Tuesday at 11:00 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
This is a play based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and team trends.
Santa Clara was without its best player, Josip Vrankic, for eight games earlier this year, and those games are pulling down its overall power rating.
Santa Clara has been playing better late in the season, with an average rating of +12.0 over the last 12 games compared to +6.9 in games before that, including those missed by Vrankic.
Washington State center Mouhamed Guaye missed the Pac-12 Tournament with an ankle injury. He could play tonight, but he will likely draw a tough defensive assignment on an injured ankle going against Vrankic.

Released Tuesday, March 15 at 6:30 p.m. ET

Arizona to Miss Sweet 16 +350

This prop is available at FanDuel at release time.
Arizona point guard Kerr Kriisa missed the last two games of the Pac-12 Tournament with an ankle injury, and it does not look good, so he’s likely questionable to play this weekend.
Our Round Odds have Arizona at 76.0 percent to make the Sweet 16 and 24.0 percent to miss, providing value at +350, playable to +300.
Arizona has a tall frontline, but if it advances, it will meet a team that rates well in size and offensive rebounding in either Seton Hall or TCU.

Released Wednesday, March 16 at 2:40 p.m. ET

Indiana +3 (vs. Saint Mary’s)

Best odds available at release time are DraftKings +3 (-110).
NCAA Tournament Game, Thursday at 7:20 p.m. ET (approx.) in Portland, Oregon on TBS.
This is a playable pick based on our lineup and team analysis.
Indiana was a play on Tuesday night and covered despite going 2-for-13 from three-point range by dominating in turnovers, rebounding and generating 22 more two-point shot attempts against Wyoming.
Indiana has been improving and playing at a high level over the last 10 games, and our adjusted power ratings have the Hoosiers slightly ahead of Saint Mary’s now.
We’ve seen teams like Indiana come out of the First Four games and get hot, and the Hoosiers have the talent and defensive ability to go on a run.
Saint Mary’s has frontline size, but it doesn’t really have shot blocking and is average at stopping opponents inside.
Saint Mary’s strength on defense is limiting opponents outside, as it hasn’t given up 10 or more threes in any game. But that isn’t Indiana’s game anyway.

Released Wednesday, March 16 at 2:40 p.m. ET

Combined Seed Number of Final Four Over 10.5, -130

This prop is available at DraftKings at release time, under “Tournament Specials” and “Final Four Props.”
To win this prop, you need the combined seed number of all four Final Four participants to add up to 11 or more.
This is a two-unit play since we are taking the (slight) favorite here and like the value on the prop.
Our projection based on our Round Odds and advancement table for all teams to the Final Four is that this has a 60 percent chance of going over and 40 percent going under.
That puts our break-even point at -150 for this prop.
The Final Four seeds have been over this prop line in five straight tournaments and 10 of last 15, thanks to some unexpected runs by teams seeded 7 or higher.
There are several contenders this year in the 4 and 5 seed range who also have a real chance to make deep runs and add to the seed lines.

Released Thursday, March 17 at 8:40 a.m. ET

Providence -2 (vs. South Dakota State)

Best odds available at release time are DraftKings +6.5 (-110).
NCAA Game, Thursday at 12:40 p.m. ET (approx.) in Buffalo, New York on TruTV.
This is a playable pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, and our review of the matchup factors confirms it as a play.
Providence is an overseeded No. 4 seed based on its close-game performance, but its power rating is also deflated by its style and not blowing out weak opponents when ahead, as well as some injury impacts.
Providence’s three worst performances, far below all of its other games, were in matchups that in no way resemble the opponent today, and guard A.J. Reeves was either limited or missed all three with an injury.
Reeves left the blowout loss to Creighton with an injury, and there has been no news on that front all week, so we assume he is playing. (If news were to break, this becomes non-playable).
South Dakota State is a great outside-shooting team with very poor defensive numbers, and it’s a fairly popular upset pick.
Providence shot only 3-of-24 from three-point range, its worst performance of year, in its loss to Creighton in the Big East Tournament, an obvious area of positive regression.
Creighton has size and is one of the best teams in the nation at opponent two-point shooting percentage, while South Dakota State is at the other extreme, and Providence matches up well.

Released Thursday, March 17 at 8:40 a.m. ET

New Mexico State +6.5 (vs. Connecticut)

Best odds available at release time are DraftKings +6.5 (-110).
NCAA Game, Thursday at 6:50 p.m. ET (approx.) in Buffalo, New York on TBS.
This is a playable pick based on our lineup and team analysis.
New Mexico State is undervalued in raw power ratings as guard Clayton Henry, the best outside shooter, missed the early part of the season and forward Johnny McCants missed a recent bad loss to Chicago State, a poor performance in an otherwise improving stretch of play to end the season.

Released Thursday, March 17 at 8:40 a.m. ET

Murray State -2 (vs. San Francisco)

Best odds available at release time are DraftKings -2 (-110).
NCAA Game, Thursday at 9:40 p.m. ET (approx.) in Indianapolis, Indiana on CBS.
This is a playable pick based on our lineup and team analysis and injury news.
San Francisco forward Yauhen Massalski will miss the game with a knee injury.
He also missed the WCC Tournament semifinal, which was the first game all year that a San Francisco starter had missed a game, and the Dons do not play a deep rotation.
Massalski is a key interior player, and Murray State is very good at attacking the glass.

Released Friday, March 18 at 10:50 a.m. ET

Jacksonville State +15.5 (vs. Auburn)

Best odds available at release time are FanDuel +15.5 (-110).
NCAA Tournament Game, Friday at 12:40 p.m. ET in Greenville, South Carolina on TruTV.
This is a playable pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model and team matchup analysis.
Jacksonville State advanced to the NCAA Tournament despite losing in the Atlantic Sun Tournament semifinal to Jacksonville.
But a look at the underlying stats show that close loss was a result of a very bad outside-shooting performance and an anomalous free-throw rate.
Over the last six games, including the Atlantic Sun Tournament loss, Jacksonville State has shot 64 percent from two-point range. But it went only 8-of-39 from three in the A-Sun tournament, which is a likely source of positive regression, as it shot nearly 39 percent from deep for the full season.
Meanwhile, Auburn has been struggling on two-point shots down the stretch, going under 50 percent in four of its last six games after doing it in fewer than 25 percent of all previous games this year.
Part of those struggles could be teams adjusting to Auburn’s poor outside shooting (other than Jabari Smith).
Auburn has also struggled in road/neutral games down the stretch, going 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS since mid-January.

Released Friday, March 18 at 10:50 a.m. ET

Colgate +7.5 (vs. Wisconsin)

Best odds available at release time are FanDuel +7.5 (-110).
NCAA Tournament Game, Friday at 9:50 p.m. ET in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on TBS.
This is a playable pick according to our team trends and matchup analysis.
Wisconsin’s Johnny Davis suffered a lower leg injury in the final regular-season game and wasn’t 100 percent for the Big Ten Tournament. The Badgers are not deep and struggle when the starters are out or limited.
Wisconsin is 4-2 SU and 0-6 ATS as a favorite of five or more points this year.
Colgate point guard and leading scorer Nelly Cummings missed three games in December, including double-digit losses at St. John’s and Vermont.
When Cummings was playing and all of the starters were in, Colgate went to Syracuse and won 100-85 in November.

Released Friday, March 18 at 1:15 a.m. ET

UAB +8.5 (vs. Houston)

Best odds available at release time are DraftKings +8.5 (-110).
NCAA Tournament Game, Friday at 9:20 p.m. ET (approx.) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on TNT.
This is a playable pick based on our lineup and team matchup analysis.
Houston’s average rating since guard Marcus Sasser suffered a season-ending injury is about five points lower than those with him, so its season-average rating is a little inflated.
Houston feasts on mediocre to poor offenses, as it is 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS against the most efficient offenses it has faced and 26-0 SU and 18-8 ATS against all others.
UAB rates as the second-most efficient offense that Houston has faced (trailing only Alabama).
Houston lost the five games where it allowed the highest effective field-goal percentage (52 percent or higher), and all were against the top offenses overall it faced.
UAB is a balanced team that does not have any major flaws, turns teams over and rebounds.
UAB has major-conference talent, as three of the five starters are transfers who came in from Power Six schools.
Conference USA teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the first round of the last six NCAA Tournaments.

Released Saturday, March 19 at 11:25 a.m. ET

Saint Peter’s +8.5 (vs. Murray State)

Best odds available at release time are at BetMGM +8.5 (-110).
NCAA Tournament Game, Saturday at 7:45 p.m. ET in Indianapolis, Indiana on CBS.
This is a playable pick based on our WOWY and team matchup analysis.
Saint Peter’s was one of our largest manual adjustments upward entering the tournament based on its play in the second half of the season.
Over the last eight games, Saint Peter’s has a game-adjusted power rating of +14.1 versus +0.1 for the previous 23 games. Obviously, small sample sizes here and you want to regress that rating, but it’s a noticeably better team now, solidified by the Kentucky result.
Saint Peter’s has held opponents to 35.8 percent shooting on two-point attempts over that stretch, showing that the run is driven by great defense. So while the Kentucky upset was made possible by a hot shooting night, the defense has been consistently at a higher level.

Released Saturday, March 19 at 11:25 a.m. ET

North Carolina +5.5 (vs. Baylor)

Best odds available at release time are at FanDuel +5.5 (-110).
NCAA Tournament Game, Saturday at 12:10 p.m. ET in Fort Worth, Texas on CBS.
North Carolina has been on a hot run and playing significantly better since a lineup change.
UNC now plays a really tall front line of three players 6’8″ or above and is a great defensive rebounding team.
Baylor forward Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua, who would be a key player to match up with North Carolina’s size, suffered a season-ending knee injury in mid-February.

Released Saturday, March 19 at 1:05 a.m. ET

Memphis +10 (vs. Gonzaga)

Best odds available at release time are at FanDuel +10 (-110).
NCAA Tournament Game, Saturday at 9:40 p.m. ET in Portland, Oregon on TBS.
This is a playable pick based on our WOWY and team matchup analysis.
Memphis has been playing much better over the last two months and is power-rated inside our Top 20 despite being a No. 9 seed.
Memphis has the athletes and front line to compete with Gonzaga’s strong forwards, and as we saw with Georgia State until injuries and foul trouble changed the game, a team with a strong front line can challenge Gonzaga and compete.

Released Sunday, March 20 at 11:00 a.m. ET

Texas Tech -8 (vs. Notre Dame)

Best odds available at release time are at FanDuel -8.0 (-110).
NCAA Tournament Game, Sunday at 7:10 p.m. ET in San Diego, California on TBS.
This is a playable pick based on our review of team trends and matchup factors.
Texas Tech is the No. 1 team in defensive efficiency entering this contest.
Notre Dame has relatively struggled when going up against top defenses. It is 1-5 SU and ATS this year against the best defensive teams it has faced and 22-5 SU and 17-10 ATS in all other games.

Released Sunday, March 20 at 11:00 a.m. ET

Ohio State +5 (vs. Villanova)

Best odds available at release time are at DraftKings +5.0 (-105).
NCAA Tournament Game, Sunday at 2:40 p.m. ET in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on CBS.
This is a playable pick based on our WOWY (With or Without You) review.
Ohio State got forwards Zed Key and Kyle Young back for the win over Loyola-Chicago after struggling at the end of the season.
The two of them are important for a team that otherwise lacks frontcourt depth behind E.J. Liddell.
In six games where Young was out or left the game early with an injury, Ohio State’s average power rating was only +7.0, versus +16.1 in all other games.

Released Sunday, March 20 at 11:30 a.m. ET

Virginia PK (at North Texas)

Best odds available at release time are at DraftKings +5.0 (-105).
NIT Game, Sunday at 6:00 p.m. ET on ESPN Plus.
This is a playable spread pick based on our team trend analysis.
Virginia has been much better after a slow start and has an average power rating of +10.3 on games since Jan. 1 (compared to +5.6 before then).
North Texas struggled to close out the season, losing the regular-season finale at UTEP, losing to Middle Tennessee in the Conference USA Tournament when it scored only 36 points, and then needing overtime to beat Texas State at home in the NIT opener.

Released Monday, March 21 at 9:40 a.m. ET

Abilene Christian +1.5 (vs. Ohio)

Best odds available at release time are DraftKings +6.5 (-110).
CBI Game, Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET in Daytona Beach, Florida.
This is a playable pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, and based our team trends review.
Ohio was one of the favorites to win the MAC regular-season and tournament titles for most of the season, but it closed the year 2-4 and then barely survived the first-round CBI matchup against Rice by one point.
Abilene Christian has trended the other direction, other than the WAC Tournament Final loss to New Mexico State. Abilene Christian won 13 of its last 16 games, and the two other losses were by two points and in overtime.

Released Tuesday, March 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET

North Carolina to Reach Final Four, +380

This prop is available at DraftKings at release time.
This pick is live until the Sweet 16 games start, and it is based on our projection of North Carolina having a 24.7 percent chance of reaching the Final Four.
North Carolina dominated Baylor with its full lineup, and the Baylor rally began after forward Brady Manek was ejected for a flagrant foul.
The Tar Heels aren’t a deep team, and they struggled to adjust after Manek’s ejection, but their starters feature a big front line and three shooters. They can compete with both UCLA and Purdue in terms of size.

Released Tuesday, March 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET

UTEP -4.5 (vs. Southern Utah)

Best odds available at release time are at FanDuel -4.5 (-110).
The Basketball Classic Game, Tuesday at 9:00 p.m. ET.
UTEP had a ton of injuries and lineup changes, and its top lineup has played together for only a handful of games, but it has been far better with its top players available.
Those results include a win to close the season over conference leader North Texas, a double-digit win where it led all game against Old Dominion, and an overtime loss to Middle Tennessee.
Point guard Jamal Bieniemy sat out the blowout win over Western Illinois in the first round of the Basketball Classic to rest up for this game.

Released Tuesday, March 22 at 10:30 a.m. ET

St. Bonaventure +3.5 (at Virginia)

Best odds available at release time are at FanDuel +3.5 (-106).
NIT Game, Tuesday at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
St. Bonaventure entered the season as the A-10 conference favorite and ranked in the preseason, but it got off to a slow start.
Over the last 12 games, St. Bonaventure has been hot and is playing like the team we expected to see in the preseason.
The one exception to that was its worst game of the year, a 74-51 loss at VCU, where center Osun Osunniyi missed the game. He is the Bonnies’ only true post who normally plays significant minutes.
The Bonnies have been on a roll that has continued from the end of the regular season, and they’ve added road wins at Colorado and at Oklahoma in the NIT.
Virginia has also played better since the start of January, and we have a positive adjustment on the Cavaliers as well, but St. Bonaventure is still two points better than Virginia on a neutral court based on recent play and is getting over three points.

Released Wednesday, March 23 at 12:00 p.m. ET

Saint Peter’s +12.5 (vs. Purdue)

Best odds available at release time are BetMGM +12.5 (-110).
NCAA Tournament Game, Friday at 7:09 p.m. ET in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on CBS.
This is a playable pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model and team matchup analysis.
Saint Peter’s was one of our largest manual adjustments upward entering the tournament based on its play in the second half of the season, and it is our largest adjustment for Sweet 16 teams.
Over the last nine games, Saint Peter’s has a game-adjusted power rating of +14.9 versus +0.3 for the previous 23 games. Obviously, small sample sizes here and you want to regress that rating, but it’s a noticeably better team now, solidified now by the Kentucky and Murray State results.
Saint Peter’s has held opponents to 35.8 percent shooting on two-point attempts over that stretch.
That will be challenged against Purdue’s size at center with Zach Edey, but we will play on the value with Saint Peter’s vastly improved play over final third of the season compared to the early part of the season.

Released Thursday, March 24 at 9:55 a.m. ET

Chet Holmgren to Score 15 or More Points, -125

This player prop is available at release time at FanDuel, and you can find similar Over/Under lines at other books.
NCAA Tournament Game, Thursday at 7:09 p.m. ET in San Francisco, California on CBS.
Chet Holmgren has averaged 14.2 points per game this year.
He has scored in single digits three times over the last five games, but all three of those (Memphis, and twice vs. Saint Mary’s) were against strong defensive teams with size and depth on the front line.
Holmgren struggled from outside against those matchups, going 1-for-14 from three in the last five games, but he’s shooting 39.2 percent from deep for the year.
Arkansas’ starting lineup features 6’10” Jaylin Williams, but every other starter is 6’6″ or shorter. That creates a matchup advantage for the 7-foot Holmgren, as we presume Williams is more likely to guard Gonzaga forward Drew Timme.
Going against teams with below-average height at the 4, Holmgren has scored 15 or more points seven of 11 times (64 percent).

Released Thursday, March 24 at 9:55 a.m. ET

Gonzaga -9.5 (vs. Arkansas)

Best odds available at release time are at DraftKings -9.5 (-110).
NCAA Tournament Game, Thursday at 7:09 p.m. ET in San Francisco, California on CBS.
This is a playable pick according to our team matchup analysis.
Both teams play at fast pace, so from a matchup standpoint, Gonzaga will be comfortable playing at the likely game pace as the better team.
Gonzaga has a major size advantage up front, as Arkansas excelled over the second half of the season after going to a smaller lineup with four players 6’6″ or shorter in the lineup.
From our team notes: Arkansas is 1-4 against teams that averaged making over 55 percent of their two-point attempts this season. Gonzaga leads the nation with a 59 percent two-point shooting percentage.

Released Thursday, March 24 at 9:55 a.m. ET

Kansas -7.5 (vs. Providence)

Best odds available at release time are at DraftKings -9.5 (-110).
NCAA Tournament Game, Friday at 7:29 p.m. ET in Chicago, Illinois on TBS.
This is a playable pick according to our team trends and matchup analysis, and right on the cutline of playable based on our Ensemble Forecast model.
Kansas is getting healthy and better at the right time with the return of guard Remy Martin, who has now played more than 20 minutes in three straight games and has been highly efficient offensively.
Kansas had covered five straight until winning but not covering the 13-point line against Creighton. In that game, Kansas had its worst shooting performance from two-point range recently, and Creighton hit 12 three-pointers to cover for the fact that it shot 29 percent inside the arc.
This is not the type of matchup that has bothered Kansas this season, as Providence is a team of wings and penetrating guards, with little rim protection and average rebounding.
Kansas is only 3-7 ATS against the Top 40 offensive rebounding teams it has faced this year, but it’s 6-1 ATS against the teams most similar to Providence in offensive rebounding rate.

Released Saturday, March 26 at 8:25 a.m. ET

Arkansas +4 (vs. Duke)

Best odds available at release time are DraftKings +6.5 (-110).
NCAA Game, Saturday at 8:49 p.m. ET in San Francisco, California on TBS.
This is a playable pick based on our team trends and WOWY (With Or Without You) analysis.
Since Arkansas put Stanley Umude and Au’Diese Toney in its starting lineup regularly, it has an average power rating of +18.2 over the last 20 games (compared to +11.0 in the first 16 games of season).
For perspective, Duke’s full-season power rating is +18.7, only 0.5 points better than how Arkansas has played since mid-January.
Arkansas is 13-6 ATS with its current starting lineup. (Toney missed one game at Tennessee in early March, which the Razorbacks also covered.)

Released Tuesday, March 29 at 9:40 a.m. ET

St. Bonaventure -1.5 (vs. Xavier)

Best odds available at release time are DraftKings -1.5 (-110).
NIT Game, Tuesday at 7:00 p.m. ET in New York, New York on ESPN.
This is a playable pick according to our team matchup analysis.
Over the last 13 games, St. Bonaventure has been hot and is playing like the team we expected to see in the preseason when it was Atlantic-10 favorites.
The one exception to that was its worst game of the year, a 74-51 loss at VCU, where center Osun Osunniyi missed the game. He is the Bonnies’ only true post who normally plays significant minutes.
The Bonnies have been on a roll that has continued from the end of the regular season, and they’ve added road wins at Colorado, Oklahoma, and Virginia in the NIT.
Xavier has been more inconsistent down the stretch, losing eight of its last 10 before the NIT, and then playing three home games, winning two of them (Cleveland State, Vanderbilt) in close games.

Released Tuesday, March 29 at 9:40 a.m. ET

Texas A&M -2 (vs. Washington State)

Best odds available at release time are FanDuel -2 (-110).
NIT Game, Tuesday at 9:30 p.m. ET in New York, New York on ESPN2.
This is a playable pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model and team trend analysis.
Texas A&M has been on a roll since guard Marcus Williams took a leave of absence and was replaced in the starting lineup, winning 10 of the last 11 games.
Over that stretch, the Aggies have an average power rating of +17.5 (compared to +8.7 in all games prior) with several big wins, including beating both Oregon and Wake Forest in last two games by 15 points.
Washington State has also played better recently to reach the NIT semifinal, but its run has been less consistent and not tied to a specific change.

Released Thursday, March 31 at 5:50 p.m. ET

North Carolina +4 (vs. Duke)

Best odds available at release time are at FanDuel +4 (-110).
NCAA Tournament Game, Saturday at 8:49 p.m. ET in New Orleans, Louisiana on TBS.
North Carolina continues to play at a much higher level over the latter half of the season since a lineup change.
Over the last 13 games, North Carolina’s average rating is +20.3, and the median game rating is +24.4 (For perspective, those are No. 1 seed quality numbers over a full season).
That stretch includes the road win at Duke to conclude the regular season.
North Carolina has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games, and it has covered by at least 9.5 points in each win ATS.
North Carolina is a dominant rebounding team with a big front line, and it is holding teams to 41.6% shooting on two-point attempts in the NCAA Tournament.

Released Wednesday, March 16 at 2:40 p.m. ET

South Region Winner to Win National Championship +400

This prop is available at PointsBet at release time.
The South Region has the longest odds of any region to produce a national champion, according to the PointsBet market, with the West at the shortest odds (+160).
However, our projections have the South champion with a 25.9 percent chance of winning the title, higher than all regions except the West.
This prop is playable to +350.
The team that comes out of the South is likely to be a reasonably strong team, based on our projections. The South is tied with the West for highest odds of the top five seed lines combined to reach the Final Four. It’s relatively less likely to produce a dark-horse run.
If any of Arizona, Villanova, Tennessee, Illinois, or Houston get through, their outlook will be improved by getting the necessary results to advance that far, and they will have a decent chance of cashing.

Released Monday, April 4 at 10:20 a.m. ET

North Carolina +4 (vs. Kansas)

Best odds available at release time are at PointsBet +4 (-105), with most common line at +4 (-110) across majority of books.
NCAA Tournament Game, Monday at 9:20 p.m. ET in New Orleans, Louisiana on TBS.
Our Staff Picks have been riding on North Carolina throughout the tournament, and the same rationale continues in the national final.
North Carolina continues to play at a much higher level over the latter half of the season, and it is a legitimate top contender since shortening its rotation.
Over the last 14 games, North Carolina’s average rating is +20.5, and its median game rating is +24.3 (For perspective, those are No. 1 seed quality numbers over a full season). Kansas’ full-season rating is +20.9.
North Carolina has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games, and it has covered by at least eight points in each win ATS.
North Carolina is a dominant rebounding team with a big front line, and that has been a relative area of weakness for Kansas, as some of its worst games have come against great rebounding teams.
The Tar Heels are 16-1 this year when rebounding at least 33% of their own missed shots, while Kansas is 3-5 when allowing opponents to rebound at that rate on the offensive end (30-1 in all other games).