MLB Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• This line is available at 81.5 or 82.5 at various books, but we see the most value at this 81.5 number because our projections include a 4.8% chance the Angels finish with exactly 82 wins, and the juice difference is only -115 to -130 to get the extra win. 
• We project the Angels for 82.8 wins on average.
• Lacking depth in recent seasons, the Angels have addressed those issues with the notable additions of Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, Hunter Renfroe, Tyler Anderson, Carlos Estevez, and Matt Moore during the offseason, plus the arrival of top prospect catcher Logan O'Hoppe.
• The team has depth beyond their initial six-man rotation, with former top prospect Griffin Canning now beyond multiple seasons of arm issues and Chase Silseth available at Triple-A. Additionally, top relief pitching prospect Ben Joyce is expected to contribute in the bullpen this season.
• Injuries have played a major role in the team's recent struggles, but they enter the year with nearly all of their key players healthy, including Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Shohei Ohtani, and Taylor Ward.
• Team brass has noted significant offseason improvements in stuff from starting pitchers Reid Detmers and Jose Suarez.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Michael Grove of Los Angeles and Jose Berrios of Toronto. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Ross Stripling of San Francisco and Graham Ashcraft of Cincinnati. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Tyler Glasnow of Tampa Bay and Charlie Morton of Atlanta.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Sandy Alcantara of Miami and Zack Wheeler of New York. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Wade Miley of Milwaukee and Kyle Hendricks of Chicago.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Zach Davies of Arizona and Kodai Senga of the Mets.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is MacKenzie Gore of Washington and Jordan Montgomery of St. Louis. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Corbin Burnes of Milwaukee and Merrill Kelly of Arizona. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Hogan Harris of Oakland and Zack Wheeler of Philadelphia. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Carlos Carrasco of the Mets and Matthew Liberatore of St. Louis.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Thursday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Cristian Javier of Houston and MacKenzie Gore of Washington.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Austin Gomber of Colorado and Garrett Whitlock of Boston. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Dane Dunning of Texas and Tyler Anderson of Los Angeles.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Patrick Sandoval of Los Angeles and Bryan Woo of Seattle. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Jon Gray of Texas and Jack Flaherty of St. Louis. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Alek Manoah of Toronto and Brandon Bielak of Houston. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is J.P. France of Houston and Sonny Gray of Minnesota.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Louie Varland of Minnesota against Kevin Gausman of Toronto.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Thursday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Clarke Schmidt of New York against Kyle Gibson of Baltimore. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Karl Kauffmann of Colorado and Sandy Alcantara of Miami. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Peyton Battenfield of Cleveland against Mike Clevinger of Chicago. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Tommy Henry of Arizona against Tyler Muller of Oakland. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Luis Ortiz of Pittsburgh and Michael Lorenzen of Detroit. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Corey Kluber of Boston against Miles Mikolas of St. Louis.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Zack Greinke of Kansas City against Adrian Houser of Milwaukee.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Corey Kluber of Boston against Miles Mikolas of St. Louis.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is James Paxton of Boston against Adam Wainwright of St. Louis.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Trevor Kelley of Tampa Bay against Gerrit Cole of New York. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 
• We are getting the division-leading Rays as an underdog here because of the pitching matchup, but when playing on teams using openers (like Tampa Bay tonight) the models have performed at over 10% ROI.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Jordan Lyles of Kansas City against Lucas Giolito of Chicago. 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Hayden Wesneski of Chicago and Sandy Alcantara of Miami.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Roansy Contreras of Pittsburgh and Yusei Kikuchi of Toronto.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Joe Ryan of Minnesota and Cal Quantrill of Cleveland.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Kyle Bradish of Baltimore and Spencer Strider of Atlanta.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Johan Oviedo of Pittsburgh and Jose Berrios of Toronto.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Hunter Greene of Cincinnati and Lance Lynn of Chicago.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Mitch Keller of Pittsburgh and Shane McClanahan of Tampa Bay 
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Domingo German for New York vs. Cal Quantrill of Cleveland.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Ryne Nelson of Arizona vs. Austin Gomber for Colorado.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Thursday by our Similar Games Model.
• The pitching matchup is Andrew Heaney of Texas vs. Gerrit Cole of New York.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• This is also a playable pick by our Decision Tree and Power Ratings models.
• The starting pitcher matchup is Drew Smyly for the Cubs and Michael Wacha for San Diego.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• This is also a playable pick by our Decision Tree and Power Ratings models.
• The starting pitcher matchup is Mike Clevinger for the White Sox and Jose Berrios for Toronto.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top-rated play for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as our top play for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as our top play for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated Decision Tree model run line play for Friday in MLB.
• Our top-rated Decision Tree run line plays have shown solid ROI over the last three seasons in MLB, and will be highlighted in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as our top play for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top rated play for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated Decision Tree model run line play for Monday in MLB.
• Our top-rated Decision Tree run line plays have shown solid ROI over the last three seasons in MLB, and will be highlighted in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as the second-highest play by our Similar Games Model.
• It is also a top-rated play by our Decision Tree model for both the moneyline and run line.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top-rated Similar Games Model play for today in MLB.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our second-highest-rated Similar Games Model play for today in MLB.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and our top-rated Similar Games Model play for today in MLB.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated Decision Tree model run line play for Wednesday in MLB.
• Our top-rated Decision Tree run line plays have shown solid ROI over the last three seasons in MLB, and will be highlighted in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play by our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable pick according to our Similar Games Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable pick according to our Decision Tree Model.
• Over the last three years, our top Decision Tree Model run line picks have been among our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline pick according to our Similar Games model.
• Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.