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Past Picks

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Player Prop

Brock Purdy Over 12.5 Rushing Yards -110

Lost: 12 rush yards

49ers vs. Chiefs

Sun Feb 11 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Brock Purdy rushes for more than 12 yards in the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is similar to a prop we posted in our picks article, but without the H2H component with Patrick Mahomes. 
  • Purdy's rushing splits are heavily dependent on game script. When the 49ers are blowing teams out, he does not run. When it is a closer game, he does.
  • In the nine games the 49ers won by 14 or more points, Purdy ran only 15 total times for 33 yards.
  • In the nine games the 49ers lost, or won by less than 14 points, Purdy ran 35 times for 173 yards.
  • In this game with a 2-point spread, against a Chiefs team that rarely loses big with Mahomes at QB, we'll play on Purdy continuing his recent form on the ground (11 carries for 62 yards in the playoffs).

Pick published: Feb 11 1:36pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Player Prop

Travis Kelce to Score a TD +100

Lost: 0 TD

49ers vs. Chiefs

Sun Feb 11 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Travis Kelce scores at least one TD in the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
  • This particular prop is located under the "TD props" tab and the "Anytime Touchdown Scorer" link.
  • Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown in 13 of 17 playoff games with Patrick Mahomes at QB. When it turns to the postseason, the Chiefs turn to their best weapon in the red zone.
  • Our projections show slight value here at the +100 line available at FanDuel, with a 52.3% chance of scoring in this game.

Pick published: Feb 8 11:12am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Game Prop

Position Besides QB to Win Super Bowl MVP +200

Lost: Mahomes MVP

49ers vs. Chiefs

Sun Feb 11 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Someone besides a QB will be selected as Super Bowl MVP.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
  • This particular prop is located under the "Super Bowl MVP" tab and then scroll down past the individual player bets. 
  • A couple of years ago, we took a look at Super Bowl MVPs. One of the interesting things was the correlation between the Over/Under for the game and whether a QB won MVP. 
  • While 83% of SB MVPs have been quarterbacks when the pre-game Over/Under is 52.0 or higher, 60% of MVPs have been QBs when it is between 48.0 and 51.5 points, and 50% have been QBs when it has been 44.0 to 47.5 points.
  • Right now, the most common Over/Under is 47.5 points, and it has been hovering in that range all week.
  • So we think we are getting a little value at the +200 line on a non-QB winning, given the expected total and the amount of defensive and skill player talent that could garner the award in this game.

Pick published: Feb 8 11:12am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Team Prop

Chiefs Under 7.5 Players to Have a Reception -104

Lost: 8 players

49ers vs. Chiefs

Sun Feb 11 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Seven or fewer Kansas City Chiefs players will have a reception in the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
  • This particular prop is located under the "Receiving Props" tab and "Total Number of Kansas City Chiefs to Have a Reception."
  • For the full season, Kansas City has had at least 8 players record a reception in 15 of 19 games started by Patrick Mahomes. Why then, do we like the Under here?
  • It's taken most of the season, but Kansas City has started to consolidate the passing targets on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, while Isiah Pacheco has carried the backfield. Over the last four games with Mahomes starting, including the playoff matchups, the Under on this number would have hit three times. The one time it did not, six different players had exactly one catch, with three of those catching their only target of the game.
  • The offense has been better with more of the offense going through the Kelce and Rice combo, and we expect that trend to continue.
  • It also looks more likely that RB Jerick McKinnon (who was designated to return from IR) will not play, and WR Kadarius Toney will not be activate for the game. 

Pick published: Feb 8 11:12am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Player Prop

George Kittle Over 49.5 Receiving Yards -110

Lost: 4 yards

49ers vs. Chiefs

Sun Feb 11 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: George Kittle has more than 49 receiving yards in the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
  • This particular prop is located under the "Player Props" tab and the George Kittle Props section.
  • Our projection for Kittle is 59.2 receiving yards in the Super Bowl.
  • Kittle typically becomes a bigger part of the game plan in games where the matchup is expected to be closer, and he shows up more prominently in big games.
  • Over the last two seasons, Kittle has averaged 65.0 receiving yards in games where the pre-game spread was 7 points or lower, and only 43.2 yards in the games with larger spreads.
  • The strength of the Chiefs' secondary is also the two starting cornerbacks, and Kansas City's relative weakness at rush defense could also open up big play opportunities down the middle of the field, and matched up on linebackers and safeties, an area that Kittle excels.

Pick published: Feb 8 11:12am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Moneyline

Chiefs To Win +110

Won: 25-22

49ers vs. Chiefs

Sun Feb 11 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City wins the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • We highlighted some of our rationale for value on Kansas City as the game winner in our Super Bowl betting article. 
  • Our models are showing value at +119 on Kansas City, though that line is not typically available at US-based sportsbooks (it is at some offshores). We were waiting to see if we could find any better value until today in US markets, but this is the best available at BetMGM.
  • Some of our arguments/rationale for Kansas City is that while San Francisco has been the better team over the course of the full season, our ratings have Kansas City as the better side since after Thanksgiving, after the point at which SF all-pro safety Talanoa Hufanga was lost for the year, and the 49ers defense has been worse.
  • KC also concentrated the offense, increasing the share of snaps and targets to rookie WR Rashee Rice, and the team has played its best in the postseason.
  • Super Bowl teams that have played out of the Wild Card Round, often winning on the road, have a recent history of that improved form continuing in the Super Bowl, going 10-4 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1995.

Pick published: Feb 11 1:36pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 102

Player Future

Dak Prescott to Win NFL MVP +800

Lost: 2nd place behind Jackson

Dallas Cowboys

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Dak Prescott is selected as the NFL MVP at the end of the 2023 season.

Staff notes:

  • A few years ago, we published a look at MVP winners and performance in various team and stat categories. That was part of our analysis in identifying Patrick Mahomes as a value last year when he was not the betting market favorite.
  • The key categories, in order, are: team wins rank, total TDs (passing/rushing), Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Rank, Passer Rating Rank, Team Points Scored Rank, and Pass TD Rate Rank. The MVP winners at QB ranked on average at 3rd or better across those categories.
  • Dak Prescott actually ranks the highest, right now, across all these categories, well ahead of market favorite Jalen Hurts. Hurts ranks well below past winners in pass efficiency stats, and Prescott is the only QB who currently ranks top five in all of the most predictive MVP categories.
  • BetMGM (+800) is the best relative price, compared to FanDuel (+700) and DraftKings (+600) though we think the market is a little mispriced here.

Pick published: Nov 29 1:49pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Over/Under

Chiefs at Ravens Over 44.0 -115

Lost: 27 points

Sun Jan 28 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City and Baltimore combine for more than 44 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for the AFC Championship, rated at 54.5% at 44.5 points. 
  • You can play this elsewhere at 44.5, but you can currently get at DraftKings at 44.0 -115, and we think that's the slightly better play, considering that 44 points is one of the most common scores hit and can get you a push, as 3.8% of games from 2017-2021 ended on that total
  • Some of the Over model factors include Kansas City's low sack rate on offense, Kansas City's low turnover rate forced on defense in recent games plus Baltimore's low interception rate, and Baltimore's high rush rate and rush yards per game.

Pick published: Jan 26 3:52pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 319

Spread

Ravens -3.5 -115

Lost: 10-17

Chiefs at Ravens

Sun Jan 28 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baltimore wins the game by more than three points against Kansas City.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick (54%) at -4, and you can currently get -3.5 at some books.
  • Some model factors include Baltimore's defensive numbers, high rushing yards per game and Kansas City's low rate of rushing first downs. 

Pick published: Jan 26 3:52pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 320

Moneyline

Chiefs To Win +130

Won: 27-24

Chiefs at Bills

Sun Jan 21 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City wins the game against Buffalo in the Divisional Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick for the Divisional Round.
  • Kansas City has rarely been an underdog with Patrick Mahomes at QB in his career, but are 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS when getting points, including the SB win last year over Philadelphia.
  • Since 2002, underdogs of less than a field goal (KC is +2.5 currently) have a winning record in the playoffs at 23-22 (26-18-1 ATS). We have moneyline records back to 2010 in the playoffs, and since then, underdogs of 2.5 or fewer points are 16-12 SU for +6.4 units.

Pick published: Jan 19 10:00am ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 317

Spread

Buccaneers +6.5 -108

Lost: 23-31

Buccaneers at Lions

Sun Jan 21 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in the Divisional Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on team trends and matchup analysis.
  • Last week, we had a similar Staff Pick on the Rams against the Lions, The primary rationale was the poor performance of teams with poor passing defense numbers and similer teams to Detroit in the playoffs. Those concerns played out, but the Lions still won as the Rams failed to convert yards to points, settled for field goals, and made suboptimal coaching decisions, while outgaining the Lions by nearly 100 yards.
  • Detroit just allowed 357 passing yards and a 119.8 passer rating to Matthew Stafford in the Wild Card Round win, and that's the highest passer rating ever allowed by a team that advanced in the playoffs.
  • The five other teams who allowed the highest passer rating, and won, in the Wild Card Round went 0-5 both SU and ATS in the next game, losing by an average of 26 points in the Divisional Round.
  • Those pass defense numbers in the Wild Card Round were bad, but Detroit was near the bottom of the NFL in the regular season, ranking 29th in net yards per pass attempt allowed, 27th in TD passes allowed, and 27th in passing yards allowed in the regular season. So we will grab the points against a team with a very susceptible pass defense, when teams fitting that profile have generally failed to cover in the postseason.

Pick published: Jan 19 10:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 315

Spread

Rams +3.0 -104

Won: 23-24

Rams at Lions

Sun Jan 14 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Rams win the game or lose by fewer than 3 points in the Wild Card Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a Staff Pick based on review of the matchup.
  • In our "similar team" analysis for playoff teams, Detroit's most comparable teams performed poorly, with a weighted ATS% in the first playoff game of 34%.
  • The biggest factor is Detroit's defensive rank, particularly their pass defense, where they rank 27th in passing yards allowed, and 29th in net passing yards allowed per attempt (6.7), worst among playoff teams.
  • Since 2010, teams with a net pass yards per attempt allowed per attempt of 6.5 or worse are 3-9 SU and 3-9 ATS at home in the Wild Card Round, with the most recent being last year's Minnesota loss at home to the Giants.
  • The Rams also are better than their raw rating, if we account for the games Stafford was injured and missed. Further, the Rams were also worse without RB Kyren Williams (some which corresponded to Stafford being out.) With Williams and Stafford both in the lineup, the Rams are +5.4 (compared to -5.3 overall, and +2.3 for full season average).

Pick published: Jan 12 12:18pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 149

Spread

Browns -2.0 -110

Lost: 14-45

Browns at Texans

Sat Jan 13 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Cleveland Browns win the game by more than 2 points in the Wild Card Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model spread pick, but is a Staff Pick based on team analysis and trends.
  • The Cleveland Browns have started five (!!) different QBs this year, but have been playing better on offense with veteran Joe Flacco in his five starts. He's averaged 7.9 yards per pass (the other 4 averaged 6.4) and thrown 13 TD passes (11 combined for the others).
  • Teams with a QB who didn't start all year have provided playoff value in recent years. Since 2010, when the starting QB in a playoff matchup did not start in at least 4 of that team's games in the regular season, that team is 25-14-3 ATS.
  • The Texans' pass defense is a weak link, as they rank poorly in net yards per pass allowed (6.5 yards per pass), second-worst only to Detroit among playoff teams. Home teams in the Wild Card Round who have given up 6.5 net yards per pass or worse in the regular season are 3-9 SU and ATS since 2010.
  • C.J. Stroud has been a part of a wonderful revival in Houston as the second overall pick, but rookie QBs have a poor track record in their first start, and he's going against the team that ranks #1 in passing yards allowed. 
  • Going all the way back to 1978, teams with a 1st and 2nd round rookies making their playoff debut (so we are excluding the backups forced into starts) have gone 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS in the first game, underperforming the spread by an average of 6.3 points. All five top rookies to make the playoffs since 2011 have lost and failed to cover in their first playoff start.

Pick published: Jan 12 12:18pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 141

Player Future

Brandin Cooks Under 775.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 16 games, 657 yards

Dallas Cowboys

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Brandin Cooks will finish with fewer than 776 receiving yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our fantasy projection for Brandin Cooks is 626 receiving yards, nearly 150 yards of value.
  • Our projection is built based on team overall projection and projected role, player similarity comparisons, and market data from fantasy football drafts.
  • Brandin Cooks is currently WR42 in Underdog Best Ball Rankings, but has the same yardage prop total as Christian Kirk (WR27) and only 25 yards under Michael Pittman (WR28) showing a potential mis-price on Cooks value relative to the fantasy market data.
  • Optimism on Cook's role as the WR2 in Dallas is driving some of this optimism, but our "similar players" analysis, which also incorporates players with similar recent production, age, and market draft value, is much lower on Cooks. 
  • Of the top 20 most similar players, only four went over this total, and none of the 12 most similar reached 775 yards (29-31 year old receivers who saw a similar dropoff to Cooks last year, and were drafted in a similar range).

Pick published: Jun 1 5:59pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Player Future

Davante Adams Under 1300.5 Receiving Yards -110

Won: 17 games, 1144 yards

Las Vegas Raiders

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Davante Adams finishes with fewer than 1301 receiving yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Davante Adams is 1166 receiving yards in 2023.
  • Adams has put up more than 1,300 yards receiving in the last three seasons, which is why this total is higher.
  • Adams' total is equal to Tyreek Hill's at DraftKings, and only behind Justin Jefferson (and ahead of Ja'Marr Chase). Those other three guys are the top three wide receivers being drafted, while Adams' fantasy market ADP is at WR9.
  • Our similar player analysis also shows a risk of injury/drop-off as other elite wide receivers have slowed at about this age (most recently, Julio Jones at age 31). 
  • This is also an off-market line, as FanDuel has it at 1200.5. We don't see value at that FanDuel line but do at this higher number.

Pick published: Jun 23 4:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Team Future

Broncos Under 8.5 Season Wins -110

Won: 8-9

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Denver Broncos win fewer than 9 games in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Denver is 7.8 wins, and we give Denver a 60.3% chance of finishing with 8 or fewer wins.
  • Denver finished at 5-12 a year ago, and was dead last in points scored in the NFL. This large projected win total is due to an expected bounceback with Sean Payton taking over as head coach.
  • We still like the value on the Under here because of the number of outs. Those include the tough schedule, the possibility that Russell Wilson is in real decline at age 35, and that Payton's impact could be overvalued.
  • Wilson showed signs of decline his last year in Seattle, and then followed it up with the worst statistical year of his career.
  • Since 2000, Super Bowl coaches who took at least a year off before returning to coaching are 4-6 on win total overs, averaging 6.3 wins (versus 7.7 average win total).

Pick published: Jul 10 1:09pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Courtland Sutton Under 725.5 Receiving Yards -115

Lost: 16 games, 772 yards

Denver Broncos

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Courtland Sutton has fewer than 726 receiving yards during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our fantasy projection for Courtland Sutton is 637 yards, nearly 90 yards of under value.
  • Sutton is currently WR47 in the Underdog Best Ball Fantasy Rankings, but his yardage total at Caesars is 125 more yards than Rashod Bateman and 200 more than Elijah Moore, the two receivers closest to him in the rankings.
  • Nine of Sutton's 12 most similar player comps by age, recent production and market ranking went under 725 receiving yards, several going well under, and 6 of the 7 most similar went under.
  • Sutton may not feel that old, but he turns 28 this season, and has not been as explosive or productive since an ACL tear in 2020, playing in 32 of a possible 34 games over the last two years but only averaging about 50 receiving yards a game as a clear starter.
  • Sutton faces increased target competition, as Jerry Jeudy has emerged as the far more likely top receiver in Denver, the team drafted Marvin Mims and Tim Patrick returns from missing all of last year, Denver added a high-volume receiving back in Samaje Perine, and tight end Greg Dulcich is a potential second-year breakout candidate.

Pick published: Jun 1 5:59pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Player Future

Russell Wilson Under 24.5 Passing Touchdowns +100

Lost: 15 GS, 26 TDs

Denver Broncos

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Russell Wilson throws fewer than 25 touchdown passes in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Russell Wilson is 20.8 touchdown passes in 2023, over three touchdown passes worth of value.
  • Last year, Wilson threw only 16 TD passes (a career-low) in 15 starts. While there is some optimism about Wilson with the Broncos hiring head coach Sean Payton, we still see under value here.
  • Our projections are based on team projections tied to win totals and recent stats, as well as for QBs, some player similarity performances based on age.
  • Since 2010, there have been 14 QBs who were in their 30's and dropped to fewer than 1.3 TD passes per game in a season. Only three of the 14 managed at least 22 TD passes the next year (giving some leeway because of the extra 17th game compared to a lot of those players). 
  • While we think Wilson could bounce back under Payton, this number is still high for a veteran who showed signs of decline the last two years and will be 35 this season.

 

Pick published: Jun 29 5:45pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Under 625.5 Receiving Yards +105

Won: 16 games, 315 yards

Kansas City Chiefs

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Marquez Valdes-Scantling finishes with fewer than 626 receiving yards during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Valdes-Scantling is 439 yards, nearly 200 yards of under value.
  • Valdes-Scantling finished last year with 687 receiving yards while playing all 17 games, on an offense that led the NFL in passing yards (8th most all-time). 
  • He is the 4th KC wide receiver by best ball average draft position, and faces a lot of potential competition including Rashee Rice, Justyn Ross, and Justin Watson as an outside receiver. 
  • As a result, there are a lot of outs to this under, including injury, the offense being slightly less explosive overall, and Valdes-Scantling losing snaps and targets to younger competition.

Pick published: Aug 25 3:05pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Keenan Allen Under 85.5 Receptions -110

Lost: 13 games, 108 rec.

Los Angeles Chargers

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Keenan Allen has fewer than 86 receptions in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Allen is 76 receptions, 9.5 receptions of Under value.
  • Allen is 31 years old this season, and is coming off a year when he managed only 10 games played with hamstring injuries.
  • The team drafted Quentin Johnston in the first round, introducing more target competition to the offense.
  • Allen's comparables, which consist of similarly-aged players who were being drafted around WR18, had only one that finished with at least 86 catches (out of the top 12) and three others that were at 80 receptions (in a 16-game season) and the median catch total was 72 for the group.

Pick published: Jul 28 3:46pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

DJ Chark Jr. Under 725.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 15 games, 525 yards

Carolina Panthers

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: D.J. Chark has fewer than 726 receiving yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our fantasy projection for D.J. Chark is 575 yards, about 150 yards of under value. 
  • Chark signed a one-year deal with the Panthers this offseason, joining a crowded group looking to emerge with Carolina, after the team traded WR D.J. Moore to Chicago as part of the deal to acquire the first overall pick.
  • This is an Under play based on what looks like a mis-price of Chark relative to the market, and playing against the uncertainty in Carolina with the receiving situation, and how good the passing game will be with Bryce Young at QB as a rookie.
  • In Underdog Best Ball Fantasy Rankings, D.J. Chark is WR66, very similar to his WR62 rank in our PPR projections where we project him for 575 yards.
  • The Carolina wide receiver situation has veteran signings Chark and Adam Thielen, a second-round pick of Jonathan Mingo, and third-year receiver Terrace Marshall.
  • The fantasy market has Mingo and Thielen ahead of Chark, while our similar player analysis prefers both Mingo and Marshall based on age and performance of similar comps.
  • Regardless, it's a wide open situation, and it's far from certain that Chark emerges as the top receiver, or one of the top two, and he also has a lengthy injury history and is now age 27.
  • In a review of all teams in the last decade that had a top 10 pick at QB start as a rookie for majority of games, those 16 teams only produced 14 total WRs that got over 725 yards receiving. Only two (those with Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert at QB, and with Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd and Keenan Allen/Mike Williams) had two different receivers from the same team hit that mark.
  • So we see some serious under value and outs where the Panthers passing game may not produce any WRs that hit that mark, and further, Chark is far from certain to be the one that emerges.

Pick published: Jun 1 5:59pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Team Future

Eagles Under 11.5 Regular Season Wins -110

Won: 11-6

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Philadelphia Eagles win fewer than 12 games in the 2023 NFL regular season.

Staff notes:

  • We project the Philadelphia for 10.7 wins in 2023, and give them a 60.9% chance of finishing with 11 or fewer wins.
  • This is a slightly off-market line, as most books have the Eagles at 10.5 with higher juice on the over. BetMGM for example is at 10.5 -150/+125. So we like this play specifically if catching the 11.5 number, and see slight value on the 10.5 line at most books.
  • Philadelphia was one of the healthier teams in 2022 as measured by adjusted games lost, helping fuel their run to the Super Bowl.
  • The Eagles also lost both coordinators to head coaching jobs.
  • Teams like Philadelphia, who have a much higher volume of rushing TDs and rushing attempts compared to passing, tend to regress at a higher rate than teams built on higher volume passing (like Kansas City and Cincinnati) and while the market is somewhat accounting for this, there is still some potential value on playing against the Eagles, who benefited from some extreme game scripts a year ago.
  • Philadelphia played the 24th-most difficult schedule in 2022, and caught a schedule with a lot of bad quarterbacks and offenses a year ago, something else that should regress in 2023, as we currently project them with the 7th-most difficult schedule with matchups against the balanced AFC East and Kansas City in the non-conference games.

Pick published: May 17 3:07pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Jalen Hurts Over 21.5 Touchdown Passes -116

Won: 17 GS, 23 TD

Philadelphia Eagles

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Jalen Hurts throws more than 21 TD passes in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection on Jalen Hurts is 24.0 TD passes in 2022, about 2.5 TD passes of value.
  • We project some positive regression for Philadelphia in the passing game in terms of second half attempts and TD passes. Last year, the Eagles played with big leads in the second half of lots of games, and Hurts rarely passed late. He ended up throwing 22 TD passes last year (in 15 games) but 14 of those came in the first half of games, for 64% of his pass TDs coming before halftime.
  • For perspective, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert have averaged throwing 54% of their TD passes in the first half, and Hurts himself threw 55% of his career TD passes in the first half before last year.
  • The Eagles (25 TD passes, 32 rush TDs) were very rush TD heavy a year ago playing with those big leads, and while they will still score a lot of rush TDs, we see that balancing out a bit more with a tougher schedule in 2023.

Pick published: Aug 10 4:10pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Player Future

Daniel Jones Over 3200.5 Passing Yards -112

Lost: injured, 6 GS, 909 yards

New York Giants

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Daniel Jones passes for more than 3200 yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Daniel Jones is 3,603 passing yards in 2023.
  • Daniel Jones passed for a career-low 200 yards per game in 2022 (while throwing for just over 3,200 yards) as the New York Giants' receiving group was decimated. That forced him to become even more of a runner, as he ran for over 700 yards last season.
  • We see several positive regression signs for the passing game volume, as the team acquired TE Darren Waller, drafted Jalin Hyatt, and acquired Parris Campbell, to go with the return of second-year player Wan'Dale Robinson (only 6 games played as a rookie). 
  • While no one will confuse that with an elite receiving corps, it's a massive potential upgrade and one that should allow Jones to return to a more normal passing distribution.

Pick published: May 23 7:53pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

Giants to have a winning record +190

Lost: 6-11

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The New York Giants finish the 2023 regular season with more wins than losses.

Staff notes:

  • This prop can be found in the NFL section under "Team Futures" and then the "Winning Record" tab.
  • The break-even percentage for this prop is 34.5% chance, and our projections give the Giants a 40.4% chance of 9 or more wins in 2023.
  • The market is expecting some regression from the Giants after they made the playoffs last year at 9-7-1 in head coach Brian Daboll's first year.
  • We like the value on this prop because the Giants should be better in the passing offense this season. Last year, they did it with smoke and mirrors on offense at receiver and tight end.
  • This year, the team has added TE Darren Waller, WR Parris Campbell, drafted WR Jalin Hyatt, and had WR Wan'Dale Robinson only play 6 games because of injury. The team's leading receiver last season, Darius Slayton, is still on the roster but is 4th on the depth chart.
  • Brian Daboll has shown himself to be a good offensive coach, manufacturing offense a year ago without any WR depth, and this is a play on him expanding the offense with all the additions.

Pick published: Jul 10 1:09pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Trevor Lawrence Over 3875.5 Passing Yards -112

Won: 16 GS, 4016 yards

Jacksonville Jaguars

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Trevor Lawrence passes for more than 3875 yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Trevor Lawrence passing yards is 4,245, more than 350 yards of value.
  • Lawrence passed for 4,113 yards in 2022 while playing every game.
  • We project a slight uptick in his per-game passing production in 2023, based on our similar teams projections and based on his age and production last year. 
  • We also see other reasons to project a passing volume increase, including that Jacksonville's increase in passing volume over the second half of last season was masked by playing with the lead more (they averaged 2.0 more pass attempts over the last 10 games compared to the first 9, while going 7-3 in the last 10 and 3-6 in the first nine). 
  • The team also gets WR Calvin Ridley from his year-long suspension, giving the Jaguars a better receiving group overall with Ridley joining Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones.

Pick published: May 23 7:53pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Player Future

Travis Etienne Jr. Under 950.5 Rushing Yards -110

Lost: 17 games, 1008 yards

Jacksonville Jaguars

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Travis Etienne rushes for fewer than 951 yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Etienne is 868 rushing yards in 2023.
  • Last year, the Jaguars got rid of James Robinson after Week 6, and over the final 12 weeks, other than a week where he left the game early with an injury against Baltimore, Etienne got a really high workload. He accounted for over 80% of the team's running back rushes in games he played more than one quarter. 
  • The Jaguars had a lack of depth at running back a year ago, but drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round. Early reports are that Bigsby has looked really good at mini-camp.
  • So we project that while Etienne will still be the top option, the team will be more willing to give Bigsby carries to keep him fresh. 
  • Etienne also played every game a year ago, and averaged 5.1 yards per rush, so this Under can also hit with either worse health luck, and regression in yards per carry, in addition to reduced workload.

Pick published: Jun 23 4:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Raheem Mostert Under 525.5 Rushing Yards -115

Lost: 15 games, 1012 yards

Miami Dolphins

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Raheem Mostert rushes for fewer than 526 yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Raheem Mostert is 404 rushing yards.
  • We also think there is value here based on the potential for the Dolphins signing Dalvin Cook, who was released by the Vikings.
  • Mostert missed nearly all of the 2021 season, before bouncing back with nearly 900 yards last season as the lead back for Miami.
  • However, he is now 31 years old, and the team spent an early pick on Devone Achane, is rumored to be in the mix for Cook, and Jeff Wilson also joined the team mid-season last year and averaged over 50 yards a game, making for a very crowded situation compared to early last year.
  • Of the 12 most comparable players to Mostert by age, production, and market ranking (ADP), only three of them went over 525 rushing yards the next season.

Pick published: Jun 15 1:15pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Player Future

Rachaad White Under 750.5 Rushing Yards -115

Lost: 17 games, 990 yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Rachaad White finishes with fewer than 751 rushing yards during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection on White is 607 rushing yards, nearly 150 of rushing Under value.
  • Rachaad White had fairly mediocre rushing efficiency and per-play stats last year, but is being boosted up because of a perceived lack of competiton for touches in Tampa Bay.
  • In our similarity analysis, his comps (2nd year backs going in the same ADP range and rookie rate stats) performed poorly, with 10 of the 12 finishing with under 550 rushing yards.
  • Reports yesterday out of Tampa Bay were that undrated free agent rookie Sean Tucker, who fell in the draft cycle because of health concerns, was impressing coaches and was splitting first team reps with White.
  • Given White's poor comparable player performances that suggest he is vulnerable to being overvalued, along with these reports of an emerging rookie backup who is likely a better pure rusher, we see Under value on White here in a role closer to a platoon on a poor offensive team with Baker Mayfield now at QB.

Pick published: Aug 25 3:05pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Player Future

Alvin Kamara Under 600.5 Rushing Yards -115

Lost: 13 games, 694 yards

New Orleans Saints

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Alvin Kamara finishes with fewer than 601 rushing yards during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Alvin Kamara is 475 rushing yards, 125 yards of Under value.
  • This prop was finally posted after Kamara's suspension of three games was announced, and that suspension is accounted for in the line.
  • We still see Under value here because of Kamara's likely 2023 role upon his return for suspension.
  • In the last two years, Kamara has finished with over 200 rush attempts and over 800 rush yards, and had far fewer receptions than earlier in his career. But his primary backup was 32/33-year old Mark Ingram both seasons, and the Saints' second-leading rusher both years was "tight end" Taysom Hill.
  • The Saints have addressed that lack of depth by signing Jamaal Williams from Detroit, and drafting rookie Kendre Miller from TCU in the third round. Both project as more rushers than receivers, allowing Kamara to return to more of his pre-2021 role.
  • Those other two will have a chance to impress in the first three weeks with Kamara out, and we think the plan here is more of a committee approach when it comes to rush attempts, with Kamara freed up to be a higher volume receiver.
  • This same line is available at DraftKings, but the juice on Under is -130, so shop for your best line.

Pick published: Aug 25 3:05pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Team Future

Saints to Miss the Playoffs +165

Won: 9-8, missed playoffs

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The New Orleans Saints miss the playoffs after the 2023 NFL Regular Season.

Staff notes:

  • Our NFL projections give New Orleans a 53% chance of making the playoffs and a 47% chance of missing.
  • This line at DraftKings is even further off from what is available at some other sites, giving an implied break-even of 37.7% chance that the Saints miss the playoffs. 
  • New Orleans is the projected favorite in a weak NFC South, but there are reasons for fading them at this line.
  • Derek Carr signed with the Saints to be their starting QB after spending his career with the Raiders. Since 2003, there have been 26 cases where a veteran QB changed teams, and his new team was projected with a win total of 8 or more (the Saints are at 9.5).
  • Of those 26 teams, only 10 of them went over the win total, and only 9 of them made the playoffs, despite having an average win total of 9.1 (they finished with 8.2 wins on average, just over 50%).
  • If you throw out the Hall of Fame caliber veterans like Manning to the Broncos, Favre to the Vikings, and Brady to the Bucs, the success rate goes down even further. Those examples are more in line with Aaron Rodgers to the Jets, but are not similar to Derek Carr.
  • In general, our research has shown that teams with a new veteran QB are poor value in win totals, and the impact of a new veteran QB can be overvalued.

Pick published: May 17 3:07pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Desmond Ridder Over 2500.5 Passing Yards -112

Won: 13 GS, 2836 yards

Atlanta Falcons

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Desmond Ridder passes for more than 2500 yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Desmond Ridder is 3066 passing yards in 2023, a significant edge of over 500 yards compared to this opening line on FanDuel.
  • The Atlanta Falcons were 31st in the NFL in passing yards in 2022, with 2,927 combined passing yards between Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder.
  • Ridder started the final four games a year ago as a rookie, averaging 177 passing yards. He did so without star tight end Kyle Pitts playing in any of those four games and with a limited set of receiving options. 
  • Our projections for Ridder and the Atlanta passing game are based on the team win total, and similar teams and player comps, including teams with a new young QB taking over. 
  • Since 1990, there have been only nine cases that meet the following criteria: (1) a second-year QB who started fewer than 8 games the year before is taking over, (2) and that QB was drafted in rounds 2 through 4. 
  • Those QBs averaged 2849 passing yards and 14.1 games started, and those numbers were mostly from the 16-game era. Six of the nine passed for more than 2,500 yards. 
  • We see significant value in this passing yard total because of positive regression in the Atlanta game going from Mariota to a second-year Ridder, plus the young talent in the Atlanta offense. Ridder would only have to play 13 games and average just under 200 yards a start to get to this number.

Pick published: May 23 5:42pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

Falcons to Win NFC South +275

Lost: 7-10, 3rd place in South

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Atlanta finishes 1st in the NFC South in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections give Atlanta a 29% chance of winning the NFC South, while the break-even percentage at these odds is 26.6%.
  • We also like Atlanta here because there are some higher variance factors and value on a potential Falcons breakout.
  • Atlanta is changing QBs to second-year Desmond Ridder, who got four starts at the end of last season after replacing Marcus Mariota.
  • Our research has shown that there can be value on teams that have a new primary starter at QB, when that QB was already on the roster the year before.
  • Atlanta also has a young, talented offensive core that could be primed for a breakout, with 22-year old WR Drake London and 23-year old TE Kyle Pitts, both drafted in the first round. The team added the best RB prospect since Saquon Barkley, in Bijan Robinson of Texas, with the 8th overall pick.
  • Of the last 20 teams to spend a top 10 pick on a RB, 11 went over the win total, but more importantly for our purposes, they were higher variance and several had big breakouts, with eight of the 20 winning their division (with a preseason win total average of 7.0).

Pick published: May 12 2:27pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Player Future

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 950.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 16 games, 1515 yards

Detroit Lions

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Amon-Ra St. Brown finishes with over 950 receiving yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Amon-Ra St. Brown is for 1,165 yards, over 200 yards of value with this line. (the line at Caesar's is a bit higher, at 1000.5).
  • St. Brown is currently the WR9 in ADP at FantasyPros. The five receivers closest to him in ADP who have a posted receiving total at DraftKings are at an average of 1,145 yards, also nearly 200 yards higher than the number posted for St. Brown.
  • St. Brown has averaged 78 yards per game over his last 22 games, starting with the final six games of his rookie year, and is the clear top receiver for Detroit.
  • Jameson Williams, the Lions' first round pick a year ago, is also suspended for the first six games due to a gambling policy violation, so St. Brown should garner large target shares to start the year.
  • Of the 20 most comparable players by age, draft position, production, and ADP in our similar players database, 70% went over 1,000 yards receiving the next season.

Pick published: Jun 15 1:15pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Team Future

Vikings to Win NFC North +350

Lost: 7-10, 3rd place in North

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Minnesota Vikings finish in 1st place the NFC North in the 2023 NFL regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections give Minnesota a 29% chance of winning the NFC North, while these odds have an implied 22.2% break-even rate.
  • Our projection on Minnesota is on market, as we project them for 8.5 wins in a NFC North without a top contender.
  • The division odds offered at FanDuel and DraftKings do not seem to be tied to the win total projections, as Minnesota has a higher win total at all books than both Green Bay and Chicago, but is behind Green Bay at FanDuel in division odds, and even with Chicago at both books. So we think this is just a mis-price in the division winner market here relative to other betting markets.

Pick published: May 12 2:27pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Player Future

Joe Mixon Under 825.5 Rushing Yards -110

Lost: 17 games, 1034 yards

Cincinnati Bengals

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Joe Mixon rushes for fewer than 826 rushing yards during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Mixon is 749 rushing yards, about 75 yards of under value.
  • The one thing propping Mixon up is the perceived lack of competition now that Samaje Perine is gone to Denver (though no one expected Perine to have as many yards as he did in the preseason a year ago).
  • There's a decent chance that Joe Mixon just isn't very good any more. He finished with 814 rush yards a year ago despite a high volume of opportunities, because of poor efficiency.
  • He averaged only 1.5 rush yards after contact last year, which put him near the bottom of the league with other veterans like Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette, two guys still looking for an opportunity to play this season. Mixon took a pay cut to not get cut himself.
  • Mixon also has a bunch of off-the-field issues that could swing things against him if he starts poorly. You never know when the NFL would issue punishment, but since January, Mixon has been charged with a misdemeanor of aggravated meancing for alleging flashing a gun at a woman in a road rage incident right before the playoff game against Buffalo, and also has had a civil suit filed against him arising out of an incident where his sister's boyfriend fired at a teenage neighbor this March. 
  • Given the combination of risk factors in both on-field and off-field performance and that the Bengals could always decide to bring in another veteran, we see value on the Under here.

Pick published: Aug 10 4:10pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Joe Burrow to lead NFL in passing yards in 2023 +700

Lost: injured, 10 games, 2309 yards

Cincinnati Bengals

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Joe Burrow leads the NFL in gross passing yards for the 2023 NFL regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Last year, we hit with an early May pick of Patrick Mahomes to lead the league in passing, and a lot of the same rationale applies to our pick on Burrow as the value play in that category this season. Burrow has the highest projected passing yards in our player projections, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes, followed by Justin Herbert.
  • An analysis of the passing yards leaders over the last 11 years shows that over 80% of them were in the top five in passing yards per game the previous season, so this is not a feat that tends to come out of nowhere (in fact, Mahomes in his first starting season in 2018 and Dak Prescott in 2019 are the only two to finish 1st or 2nd in the category after having not ranked in the top 12 the previous season in yards per game).
  • Burrow was 2nd (to Mahomes) in passing yards per game last season, while his total number was a little lower because the Bengals only played 16 games.
  • The average passing yards leader played on a team that had a preseason win total of 10.1 wins (pro-rated to 17 games) and Cincinnati is at 11.5 wins entering the season.
  • Some subtle roster factors, include the age for RB Joe Mixon and expected decline, and having two elite wide receivers in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins who are entering their prime, leads us to project Burrow as a value play here, when Patrick Mahomes at +400 is at much lower odds.

Pick published: May 12 2:27pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Spread

Chargers -3.0 -110

Lost: 12-13

Chiefs at Chargers

Sun Jan 7 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Chargers win the game by more than 3 points in Week 18.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a recommendation based on motivation factors.
  • As we noted in our pick'em article for this week, when a team with a losing record is favored over a playoff-bound team in the final regular season week, going back to 2002, and the starting QB for the playoff team doesn't play the full game, the favorites (like the Chargers) have gone 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS. That includes Atlanta over Tampa Bay and Denver over the Chargers last year.
  • It's already been announced that Patrick Mahomes is sitting and Blaine Gabbert will start for KC. 
  • Other key veterans like Travis Kelce are only going to play until they hit milestones (16 yards to 1,000 for season) and this is going to be treated like a preseason game for KC, who has clinched the No. 3 seed.
  • This line has already moved to -3.5 at sharper books but is still currently available at 3 at some of them.

Pick published: Jan 7 10:19am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 482

Spread

Falcons +3.0 -110

Lost: 17-48

Falcons at Saints

Sun Jan 7 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Atlanta wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 18.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model spread pick for Week 18.
  • Some of the model factors in this one include New Orleans relatively poor recent rush defense, combined with Atlantas rushing attack (Atlanta ran for 228 yards against the Saints in the first meeting).
  • The Saints also have poor rushing offense numbers, and now RB Alvin Kamaras status is up in the air after an ankle injury.
  • Saints are 3-8-1 ATS as a favorite this year.

Pick published: Jan 7 10:18am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 457

Spread

Titans +4.5 -114

Won: 28-20

Jaguars at Titans

Sun Jan 7 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tennessee wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 18.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 18.
  • Model factors include Jacksonville's poor rushing efficiency numbers in both the last seven games and for full season, Tennessee's recent red zone defense numbers, and the Titans high rate of rushing touchdowns.

Pick published: Jan 7 10:18am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 474

Spread

Panthers +4.0 -110

Lost: 0-9

Buccaneers at Panthers

Sun Jan 7 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 18.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick (and our top moneyline pick if you would rather play for the outright win) for Week 18.
  • Since the start of 2013, teams that were shut out the week before, like Carolina, are 25-11-1 ATS the next week when they are underdogs. 
  • So far this year, teams that were shut out went 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the following week.

Pick published: Jan 7 10:19am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 480

Player Future

Lamar Jackson Under 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns -120

Won: 5 rushing TDs

Baltimore Ravens

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Lamar Jackson rushes for fewer than 7 touchdowns in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Lamar Jackson is 4.6 rushing touchdowns, nearly two touchdowns of under value here.
  • Lamar Jackson is coming off two years where he missed games, played in 24 total games, and had only five rushing touchdowns.
  • His career-high, seven touchdowns, would have narrowly cleared this number and both came in seasons when he had over 1,000 rushing yards.
  • The Ravens are changing offensive coordinators, and Lamar Jackson has already said he would run less under OC Todd Monken. The market adjusted to that with a downgrade in his rushing total, but not his rushing TD total.
  • Given his recent health history, aging into his mid-30's, and the likely emphasis on keeping him healthy and running less, we see value on Jackson not hitting this high rush TD total.

Pick published: Jun 29 5:45pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Diontae Johnson Under 875.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 717 yards

Pittsburgh Steelers

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Diontae Johnson finishes with fewer than 876 receiving yards during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Diontae Johnson is for 707 receiving yards for the 2023 season.
  • Johnson finished with 882 receiving yards last season, while playing in all 17 games, and having almost 150 targets. 
  • Our projection for Johnson is based not only on his own comps, but also the positive comparable players for the next two players on last year's Steelers team, 21-year old rookie George Pickens and 24-year old TE Pat Freiermuth.
  • Diontae Johnson will turn 27 before this season, and has averaged a paltry 6.4 yards per target over the last three seasons, and 6.0 last year, while commanding a high target share.
  • He needs to stay healthy and maintain that high target share (or dramatically increase his efficiency at age 27), and we see a higher likelihood of the more efficient younger players carving out a bigger role in their second and third years respectively.

Pick published: Jun 15 1:15pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Player Future

Dameon Pierce Under 900.5 Rushing Yards -115

Won: 416 yards

Houston Texans

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Dameon Pierce finishes with fewer than 901 rushing yards for the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Dameon Pierce is 830 rushing yards this year, about 70 yards of Under value.
  • Of the 12 most similar players in our similar player analysis, 9 of them rushed for fewer than 900 yards in the next season.
  • Those similar players are based on average fantasy draft position for the upcoming season, age, previous year stats, and NFL draft position and experience. 
  • Pierce had an extremely high rush share of the Texans' offense, accounting for 74% of all rush attempts in the first 13 games, and then missed the final 4 games last year with an ankle injury.
  • He had basically zero competition at RB a year ago, but the team added Devin Singletary from the Bills, and also has a new coaching staff and QB, creating more variance around Pierce continuing with the workload he had as a rookie.

Pick published: May 26 1:38pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Player Future

Michael Pittman Jr. Under 74.5 Receptions -120

Lost: 109 receptions

Indianapolis Colts

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Michael Pittman finishes with fewer than 75 receptions during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection is for 65 receptions for Pittman, 9.5 receptions of Under value.
  • This is a case where the projection on Pittman seems influenced by last year's stats, when it's very likely that how the Colts play on offense will be substantially different with a new coach and a rookie QB who will be a high-volume rusher.
  • Pittman finished with 99 receptions but only 9.3 yards per catch last year with Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, and Nick Foles playing at QB. That was a notable drop in yards per catch from his 12.6 and 12.3 marks in his first two years.
  • We are actually slightly above the DraftKings receiving yards number for Pittman, projecting him for more than the 800.5 yards. Our overall stat projection for Pittman has him as WR30 in our rankings, directly on market.
  • With Anthony Richardson at QB, the Colts project as a lower volume passing game, but one that should produce higher yards per catch numbers on big plays downfield. So we like the Under value here based on that style change for the offense.

Pick published: Jul 28 3:46pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Anthony Richardson to lead NFL in QB Rushing Yards +470

Lost: injured, 4 games, 136 yards

Indianapolis Colts

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Anthony Richardson leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards in the 2023 NFL regular season.

Staff notes:

  • We project Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson with over 800 rushing yards, one of three QBs we are projecting over that threshold (Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson are the others).
  • However, the prices for those other two are significantly lower, with Fields at +200 and Jackson at +240, and we see value as the market is likely undervaluing Richardson here as a rookie with no NFL track record.
  • Richardson is an elite runner, and had 1,055 rushing yards in 19 games the last two seasons (and remember, in college they include negative sack yards in the rushing total, unlike the NFL.)
  • In looking at the last 12 QB rushing leaders, three of them were rookies (Lamar Jackson, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton) and the last five have been a QB at age 23 or younger. 
  • There are also subtle factors that impact Richardson versus the other elite runners. Justin Fields and the Bears rarely passed last year, as they had no receivers, but they traded for D.J. Moore and Darnell Mooney returns from injury, so that could shift his rushing balance as Fields passes more. Jackson's Ravens have added Odell Beckham, rookie first rounder Zay Flowers, and get Rashod Bateman back from injury, and could pass more. 
  • Richardson, meanwhile, is going to be coached by Shane Steichen, who was the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia when Jalen Hurts led the NFL in QB rushing in his first year as a starter, and Richardson is not polished as a passer and should get a lot of designed runs and scrambles.

Pick published: May 12 2:27pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Moneyline

Packers To Win +100

Won: 33-10

Packers at Vikings

Sun Dec 31 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Green Bay wins the game in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline and spread pick in Week 17.
  • A few years ago, we wrote about teams going for the division sweep at home. At that time, teams that won the first division matchup on the road were only 44% ATS in the return home matchup. 
  • Minnesota won at Green Bay earlier in the year, but the situations have shifted. Minnesota is now starting their fourth QB, rookie Jaren Hall, who briefly started one game earlier but lasted only one quarter before getting hurt. 

Pick published: Dec 31 10:10am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 131

Spread

Eagles -12.5 -110

Lost: 31-35

Cardinals at Eagles

Sun Dec 31 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Philadelphia wins the game by more than 12 points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable spread pick in Week 17.
  • Since 2010, double-digit home faves in Week 16 or later are 66-4 SU and 37-30-3 ATS.
  • Philadelphia has failed to cover in four straight, but have had a poor turnover differential in that stretch and there is rebound potential against an inferior opponent.
  • Arizona placed their top WR Marquise Brown on IR this week, and QB Kyler Murray has missed practice most of the week with illness.

Pick published: Dec 31 10:10am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 120

Moneyline

Saints To Win +120

Won: 23-13

Saints at Buccaneers

Sun Dec 31 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Orleans wins the game at Tampa Bay in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable moneyline model pick in Week 17.
  • The Bucs can clinch the division with a win at home against the Saints, but this has been a division where the underdogs have prevailed. A few years ago, we wrote about teams going for the division sweep at home. At that time, teams that won the first division matchup on the road were only 44% ATS in the return home matchup. (The Bucs won in New Orleans back in Week 4, 26-9.
  • The home team is only 17-27 ATS since 2002 in the Bucs-Saints series, and the Saints are 14-7 SU and ATS in Tampa over the last 21 trips.

Pick published: Dec 27 5:01pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 121

Spread

Panthers +6.5 -108

Lost: 0-26

Panthers at Jaguars

Sun Dec 31 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model spread pick in Week 17.
  • Carolina put up their season-high in points and yards last week, but came up just short in a 33-30 loss to Green Bay. The Panthers have now out-gained their opponents in three straight games, and are 3-1 ATS over the last 4 games since firing coach Frank Reich, after a 1-8-2 ATS start.
  • Jacksonville, meanwhile, is on a downward trend and QB Trevor Lawrence is battling through injuries. The team has lost four straight after looking like a lock to make the playoffs, including losing the last two by more than two touchdowns to Baltimore and Tampa Bay. Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS over that span, with three of them failing to cover by more than 10 points.
  • They cannot effectively run the ball (no games of 100+ rushing yards in the last five, and averaging 3.6 yards per rush for the year). The Jaguars pass defense is also a bottom 10 unit, and they rank 29th in passing yards allowed.

Pick published: Dec 27 5:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 115

Spread

Commanders +3.0 -110

Won: 28-30

Commanders at Jets

Sun Dec 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick (and moneyline pick) for Week 16.
  • In this matchup of completely movable object (Washington's defense) versus utterly resistible force (the Jets offense), well take the plus-money and go against the worst offense in the league.
  • The laundry list of Jets ineptness on offense is endless. They are last in total yards, yards per drive, points per drive, and plays per drive. They are dead last in passing touchdowns (9) but make up for that by also being last in rushing touchdowns (4).

Pick published: Dec 24 10:28am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 465

Spread

Panthers +4.0 -108

Won: 30-33

Packers at Panthers

Sun Dec 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model spread pick for Week 16.
  • The line has been moving against the Packers, as they still have significant skill injuries, as Christian Watson is doubtful to play, and WR Jayden Reed and WR Dontayvion Wicks are questionable, and the team's roster moves suggest they are concerned about WR depth.
  • Packers also have S Darnell Savage as doubtful and CB Jaire Alexander as questionable.
  • Green Bay's defense is struggling on defense, getting gashed on the ground against the Giants and then lit up by Tampa Bay. The rush defense is faltering at 4.6 yards per carry allowed, and prior to the Tampa Bay game where they were motly beaten through the air, had given up at least 140 rushing yards in five straight.

Pick published: Dec 24 10:28am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 460

Spread

Falcons -3.0 -105

Won: 29-10

Colts at Falcons

Sun Dec 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Atlanta wins the game by more than 3 points in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is a borderline playable model pick, but is playable by the model odds (52%) if you can get the -3 line at below -110 payout odds, like the -105 currently availablle.
  • Indianapolis is a very popular side in this one in our pool data, and so far this year, when a team has had a +28% difference between win odds and popularity, and the line has moved more than a point, the team (like Atlanta) with line movement and low popularity is 7-4 SU and ATS this year.
  • So far this year, when one team is favored but the other team is drawing more than 60% of public picks, the unpopular favorite is 6-3.

Pick published: Dec 24 10:28am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 458

Spread

Jaguars +3.5 -108

Lost: 7-23

Ravens at Jaguars

Sun Dec 17 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jacksonville wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread (and moneyline) pick for Week 15.
  • For the second week in a row, playing against Baltimore as favorite, due to some extreme pass yards per completion and recent poor rush defense numbers, is showing up as a top model spread pick.
  • If you can get the line above a field goal, we prefer the spread to the moneyline play.
  • Jacksonville is coming off two straight poor defensive performances, losing close shootouts with Cleveland and Cincinnati.
  • The weather for this game could provide an impact, though the game is later in the day. A severe storm has moved through Florida and the SE United States, and there are heavy rains and strong winds in the aftermath.

Pick published: Dec 17 10:48am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 330

Spread

Commanders +6.5 -108

Lost: 20-28

Commanders at Rams

Sun Dec 17 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest rated model spread pick for Week 15.
  • Washington has been poor in the favorites role (1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS) while being a solid underdog play (5-3-1 ATS) for most of the year.
  • One reason that Washington has generally been better in the underdog role than as a favorite is likely because their defense ranks poorly (thus keeping even subpar offenses in the game against them), but their passing offense can be high variance with first-year starter Sam Howell, who leads the NFL in pass attempts.

Pick published: Dec 17 10:47am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 323

Moneyline

Bears To Win +146

Lost: 17-20

Bears at Browns

Sun Dec 17 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chicago wins the game against Cleveland in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline model pick for Week 15.
  • We have successfully picked the Bears as an upset play in each of their last two games in our Upset Picks articles (wins over Minnesota and Detroit) and will continue to ride them. The Bears defense has been playing much better and has held three of the last four opponents under 300 total yards and under 200 net passing yards.
  • After an 0-3 SU and ATS start where they lost each game by double digits, Chicago is 6-2-2 against the number, and have covered 4 straight as a dog, and three straight since Justin Fields returned from injury.

Pick published: Dec 14 3:05pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 309

Moneyline

Panthers To Win +134

Won: 9-7

Falcons at Panthers

Sun Dec 17 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game against Atlanta in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick for Week 15 (and spread pick).
  • This line has been moving downward and is at +2.5 at some places and +3 in others, so we are listing the moneyline as the recommended play, but you could also play the +3 if you can get it.
  • The weather in Charlotte is going to be very rough today, the total is at an extremely low 32.5, and there are high expected wind gusts and rain throughout the game.

Pick published: Dec 17 10:48am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 308

Spread

Giants +6.0 -110

Lost: 6-24

Giants at Saints

Sun Dec 17 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The New York Giants win the game or lose by fewer than 6 points in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread (and moneyline at +215) pick for Week 15.
  • The Giants have won three straight as underdogs with rookie Tommy DeVito taking over and becoming a national story.
  • The Saints scored 28 points last week, but did so while only gaining just over 200 yards of offense against Carolina, as QB Derek Carr continues to play in the aftermath of several injuries and having two concussions in a month.

Pick published: Dec 14 3:05pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 317

Moneyline

Broncos To Win +134

Won: 24-7

Broncos at Chargers

Sun Dec 10 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Denver wins the game at the LA Chargers in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 14.
  • The Chargers, quite frankly, are not very good on offense right now. Since WR Mike Williams suffered a season-ending injury, the team is averaging 17 first downs a game, something that has only gotten worse without WR Josh Palmer as well. First round pick Quentin Johnston has been a huge disappointment. Yes, the Chargers won last week, but did so with 6 total points  and a season-low 13 first downs on offense.
  • For the year, the Chargers are 29th in yards allowed and 15th in yards gained, but the two best offensive games by yards came in the first three weeks of the season.
  • Denver, meanwhile, is going the opposite way, having poor defensive numbers early, but being competitive since that start to climb back to 6-6. They are coming off a loss where they went -3 in turnovers at Houston, but should have value as a dog in this AFC West tilt.

Pick published: Dec 10 11:07am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 123

Over/Under

Vikings at Raiders Over 40.0 -112

Lost: 3 points

Sun Dec 10 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota and Las Vegas combine for more than 40 points in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Week 14.
  • Both of these teams are coming off a Week 13 bye, and the Vikings have announced that QB Josh Dobbs will get the start, and the team will also get back WR Justin Jefferson, who has missed seven straight games.
  • Both of these teams rate above average in yards per point on defense, and below average in yards per point on offense, meaning they have scored fewer and given up fewer than you would expect based on the yards profile.

Pick published: Dec 7 5:14pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 121

Spread

Rams +7.5 -115

Won: 31-37

Rams at Ravens

Sun Dec 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: LA Rams win the game or lose by fewer than 8 points in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick in Week 14.
  • The Rams won three straight after a mid-season slump, and have won the last two games by a combined 40 points, covering both comfortably. 
  • The Rams offense has been better since the return of RB Kyren Williams, rushing the ball well each of the last two games, and have also played better since Matthew Stafford returned from injury. 

Pick published: Dec 10 11:07am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 107

Moneyline

Buccaneers To Win +110

Won: 29-25

Buccaneers at Falcons

Sun Dec 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay wins at Atlanta in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 14.
  • Atlanta won a close game at Tampa Bay back in Week 7 as a slight underdog.
  • A few years ago, we wrote a research article on home division teams going for the sweep after winning on the road, and how they underperformed against the spread in the second game. 
  • The road team in a division game, seeking to avoid the sweep, was 55.3% ATS from 2008 to 2020.

Pick published: Dec 10 11:07am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars.

Rot# 113

Over/Under

Panthers at Saints Over 39.0 -110

Lost: 34 points

Sun Dec 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina and New Orleans combine for more than 39 points in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under pick for Week 14.
  • The Panthers' extremely low points per play and yards per pass in recent games are a model factor in this one.
  • The Saints have been averaging 390 yards per game over their last seven, but have underperformed in points scored relative to yards in recent games.

Pick published: Dec 10 11:07am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 111

Spread

Bears +3.5 -120

Won: 28-13

Lions at Bears

Sun Dec 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chicago wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for NFL Week 14.
  • This line is available at different places at either +3 or +3.5 with varying juice, but we prefer the +3.5 even at -120 in this case. Since 2010, 8.5% of games lined at +3 or +3.5 have finished at a 3-point loss margin. 
  • Among the model factors in this one are the later season home game for the underdog, Chicago's rush defense numbers, Chicago's high rate of rushing TDs to passing TDs, and Detroit's low rate of converting first downs by rush recently.

Pick published: Dec 7 5:14pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 110

Over/Under

Chiefs at Packers Over 42.5 -115

Won: 46 points

Sun Dec 3 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City and Green Bay combine for more than 42 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under pick for Week 13.
  • For the second week in a row, we get Kansas City at a low total, after their offense struggled to score points, particularly in the second half, in games in October and November, before breaking out last week. 
  • In eight games with Patrick Mahomes at QB, with a point total under 45, the Over is now 6-2 after last week.
  • Kansas City also finally concentrated their receiving targets/snaps on the relatively more efficient players last week, and rookie Rashee Rice saw career-highs with 10 targets, 8 receptions, and 107 yards.

Pick published: Dec 3 10:16am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 471

Spread

Eagles +3.0 -118

Lost: 19-42

49ers at Eagles

Sun Dec 3 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Philadelphia wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is currently our top-rated playable spread pick for Week 13.
  • Some books have this game now at +3 at increased juice, but see if you can get the +3 key number at -120 or better on juice. At below the +3, the moneyline is a higher-rated play.
  • We have a rare opportunity to grab a 10-1 team as a home underdog in this game.

Pick published: Nov 29 1:49pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 468

Spread

Panthers +3.0 +100

Push: 18-21

Panthers at Buccaneers

Sun Dec 3 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick for Week 13 in the NFL.
  • Carolina is playing the first game after firing head coach Frank Reich following a 1-10 start. Since 2010, interim coaches in game 1 are 16-10 ATS, as we detailed in this article from last year (they went 2-1 last year after that article was published).

Pick published: Dec 3 10:16am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 459

Spread

Bears +3.5 -115

Won: 12-10

Bears at Vikings

Mon Nov 27 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Chicago Bears win the game or lose by fewer than 4 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 12.
  • Chicago should have beaten Detroit in QB Justin Fields' first game back from injury, losing a two-score lead in the final four minutes.
  • The Bears rush defense numbers are a big model factor here, as they have been shutting down opponent rushing games, something that is of elevated importance for a Vikings' team now operating with Josh Dobbs at QB instead of Kirk Cousins. The Bears are allowing just over 3 yards per rush and under 60 rush yards a game over their last seven games.

Pick published: Nov 22 10:54am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 273

Spread

Chargers +3.5 -110

Lost: 10-20

Ravens at Chargers

Sun Nov 26 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: The LA Chargers win the game or lose by fewer than 4 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable spread pick in the Ensemble Forecast model for Week 12.
  • The Chargers fell to 4-6, with another close loss, and five of the losses have been by a field goal or less, so we like getting the hook at +3.5 at home in this game.
  • Baltimore's defense has been dominant, but less so in recent weeks, from their early season numbers.
  • Baltimore will be playing the first game without star TE Mark Andrews, and in the only other game without him this year, the team put up 265 total yards against Houston in Week 1, lowest of the season.

Pick published: Nov 22 10:54am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 272

Over/Under

Chiefs at Raiders Over 42.5 -110

Won: 48 points

Sun Nov 26 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City and Las Vegas combine for more than 42 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable Ensemble Forecast model Over/Under for Week 12.
  • Las Vegas has only allowed 16.0 points per game in the last four games with Antonio Pierce as interim head coach, but they are significantly outperforming what you would expect based on yards allowed, as they have still allowed 388 yards per game, and opponents are averaging a ridiculous 24.2 yards per point against them over that span. (For perspective, San Francisco is #1 for the year, at 19.1 yards allowed per point.)
  • Kansas City has not scored for three straight games in the second half, done in by a series of errors and turnovers near the opponent end, and our model is also picking up on their 1st quarter versus late game scoring splits.
  • In seven other games with Patrick Mahomes at QB, with a point total under 45, the Over is 5-2.

Pick published: Nov 26 10:35am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 269

Moneyline

Texans To Win +102

Lost: 21-24

Jaguars at Texans

Sun Nov 26 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Houston Texans win the game in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 12.
  • Houston is a slight home underdog in a game where they have a chance to complete the sweep of the Jags and move into first place in the AFC South.
  • The Texans overcame three interceptions and won last week, as the passing offense continues to excel in year 1 for QB C.J. Stroud.
  • The Texans have the pass efficiency advantage in this one, and their rushing offense has shown signs of life in the last two games with RB Devin Singletary carrying the load.

Pick published: Nov 22 10:54am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 252

Moneyline

Falcons To Win +110

Won: 24-15

Saints at Falcons

Sun Nov 26 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Atlanta wins the game against New Orleans in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick (and spread pick at +2) for Week 12.
  • Some of the model factors here include Atlanta's poor turnover margin and yardage profile relative to their points scored and allowed, due to turnover margin, New Orleans' poor rushing offense per play numbers, and Atlanta's high rate of rushing the football.

Pick published: Nov 26 10:35am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 262

Over/Under

Seahawks at Rams Over 46.5 -110

Lost: 33 points

Sun Nov 19 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Seattle and the LA Rams combine for over 46 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under for Week 11.
  • The Rams get Matthew Stafford back at QB after missing the GB game (and having a bye), and will face a Seattle defense that Stafford threw for over 330 yards against in Week 1, without WR Cooper Kupp.
  • Seattle had offensive line injuries in that first matchup that limited their offense, but should be healthier in this one, and are coming off a season-high 489 yards last week against Washington.

Pick published: Nov 19 9:47am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 469

Over/Under

Raiders at Dolphins Over 45.5 -110

Lost: 33 points

Sun Nov 19 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Las Vegas and Miami combine for over 45 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Week 11.
  • The Raiders have been the most significant overperformer in yards per point allowed on defense in the last three games, as opponents have gained over 25 yards for every point scored (the average across the league for the year is 15 yards per point). 
  • The Raiders have also drawn two poor offenses in the first two games of interim coach Antonio Pierce's tenure, playing low-scoring affairs with the Jets (down bad with Zach Wilson) and Giants (down worse with a 3rd stringer below Zach Wilson) but that changes today, and that should push the approach on both sides of the ball.
  • The Dolphins are coming off a bye, able to get healthy, and also get explosive RB De'Von Achane back from IR today, increasing the overall big play ability of this Dolphins offense.

Pick published: Nov 19 9:47am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 463

Spread

Packers +3.0 -110

Won: 23-20

Chargers at Packers

Sun Nov 19 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Green Bay wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 11.
  • Green Bay, losers of 5 of the last 6, have underperformed in points scored relative to yards, racking up over 390 yards of total offense in each of the last two games, but only scoring 39 combined points. Green Bay's rushing offense, in particular, is playing better now that Aaron Jones has returned.
  • The Chargers have overperformed in some regression areas like turnovers in recent games.
  • The Chargers poor offensive rush per play numbers are also a model factor in this one.

Pick published: Nov 19 9:47am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 456

Moneyline

Steelers To Win +100

Lost: 10-13

Steelers at Browns

Sun Nov 19 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh wins the game in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline Ensemble Forecast model pick, and also a play based on "fading the predictive ratings model extremes."
  • Over the last six weeks, underdogs who are rated under -20% cover odds with our predictive ratings model are 6-3 SU for +10.8 units, these are often games where injury info has shifted the line.
  • In this case, Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson is now out for the season, and the Browns plan to start rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who previously started the 28-3 loss to Baltimore where the Browns had a season-low 166 yards of offense.

Pick published: Nov 16 4:55pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 451

Spread

Cardinals +5.0 -112

Push: 16-21

Cardinals at Texans

Sun Nov 19 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is currently our top-rated playable Ensemble Forecast model spread pick in Week 11.
  • Houston is 0-3 ATS (and 1-2 SU) as a favorite while they are 4-2 SU as an underdog, including their last two wins.
  • Arizona is coming off a win in Kyler Murray's first start, and the overall season predictive rating is underrating Arizona because of the QB switch. Murray looked good in his return from knee injury, as he ran 6 times for 33 yards and a touchdown, and the team also got RB James Conner back from injury, and second-year TE Trey McBride is emerging as a potential top tight end.

Pick published: Nov 16 4:55pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 453

Spread

Broncos +7.5 -108

Won: 24-22

Broncos at Bills

Mon Nov 13 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Denver wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Week 10.
  • These are two teams going in opposite directions, and the Bills' defense has taken a lot of hits over the last month.
  • Buffalo hasn't had their bye yet, and have been in close games against inferior opponents since returning from the long London trip. They've lost starters Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano, and DaQuan Jones, and have several other defensive players on the injury report as questionable this week.
  • Their three best defensive games, by yards allowed, were the first three of the year, and since then, they've given up 374 yards per game and nearly 22 first downs a game.
  • Denver's defense got off to a horrific start, but has put up their best defensive perfomances in recent weeks, beating Kansas City and Green Bay before their bye, and holding the Chiefs down in the other matchup before that.

Pick published: Nov 8 5:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 265

Over/Under

Jets at Raiders Under 36.5 -110

Won: 28 points

Sun Nov 12 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: New York and Las Vegas combine for fewer than 37 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top-rated playable model Over/Under pick for Week 10.
  • The New York Jets rank 30th in scoring, and have been one of the worst teams in the NFL at scoring early in games. They've scored 8 total points in the first quarter so far this year.
  • Over the last two years, the Jets have gone Under in 12 of the 17 games that Zach Wilson has been the primary QB.
  • In this matchup between the Jets' struggling offense and the Raiders with Aidan O'Connell making his third career start, we expect a conservative game plan from both.
  • So far this year, in games with a total under 40, the Under has covered 15 of 23 times.

Pick published: Nov 12 9:31am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 264

Spread

Commanders +6.0 -105

Won: 26-29

Commanders at Seahawks

Sun Nov 12 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick at the +6 (-105) line currently commonly available.
  • Sam Howell of Washington has made great strides in the last two weeks of getting the ball out quicker (after being on pace to shatter the sack record) and that has helped the Washington offense as they nearly beat Philadelphia (and scored 31 points) and then won at New England.
  • That growth is also reflected in this stat, as Howell struggled early in the season with pressure, but excelled against the blitz in his last game.
  • Seattle has been inconsistent on offense (three games with 13 or fewer first downs and are coming off a poor offensive game at Baltimore.
  • With Seattle also ranking near the bottom of the league in first downs allowed, we like some value on Washington's pass game efficiency improvement and high volume passing attack.

Pick published: Nov 8 5:21pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 261

Over/Under

Texans at Bengals Under 47.0 -110

Lost: 57 points

Sun Nov 12 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati and Houston combine for fewer than 47 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Week 10.
  • In addition to the model factors, the teams both have injury issues at WR. Cincinnati's Tee Higgins and Houston's Nico Collins are both out, and Ja'Marr Chase is dealing with a back injury that has limited his practice, and he is questionable.

Pick published: Nov 12 9:31am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 246

Spread

Packers +3.0 +100

Lost: 19-23

Packers at Steelers

Sun Nov 12 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Green Bay wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 10.
  • The Steelers have been out-gained in all eight games so far this year, and by 790 yards for the season. They are 5-3 despite being outscored for the year, as they are 5-0 in one-score games.
  • The turnover margin is at an extreme end for a team that isn't good on offense or making teams play from far behind, as Pittsburgh ranks 1st in our adjusted turnover margin (+8 in turnovers, +2 in turnovers on downs, and +2 in missed field goals).
  • The Packers have had offensive skill injuries that have kept their full unit from playing together most of year, but just put up their highest total yardage game in last week's win, coinciding with RB Aaron Jones being healthy enough to have more than 10 carries in a game (he finished with 20) for the first time all year.

Pick published: Nov 8 5:21pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 251

Spread

Bengals -2.5 -110

Won: 24-18

Bills at Bengals

Sun Nov 5 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati wins the game by more than 2 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable Ensemble Forecast pick, but is playable as a "fade the power ratings" pick, as games where our predictive ratings model gives a team 40% or lower chance of covering are actually 14-7-1 ATS this year, often in cases where injuries or other circumstances are impacting spread.
  • In this case, Cincinnati's power rating is influenced by early terrible offensive performances while Joe Burrow was struggling while playing through a calf injury. Burrow was averaging a woeful 5.3 yards per attempt and threw only two touchdowns in his first four starts. In the last three, he is back to normal, with 7.5 yards per attempt and eight TD passes. So we see value when lines are incorporating those early injury results.
  • Buffalo's defense is going the other way, with several key injuries, and they have gone from allowing 253 yards per game in the first three games this season, to 370 yards per game over the last five. 

Pick published: Nov 5 9:21am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 474

Spread

Colts -2.0 -110

Won: 27-13

Colts at Panthers

Sun Nov 5 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Indianapolis Colts win by more than 2 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Ensemble Forecast Model spread pick for Week 9.
  • Carolina is coming off their first win of the year, but still ranks 31st in net yards per pass.
  • Carolina's rush defense also ranks near the bottom of the NFL, and unlike the last matchup against a poor rushing Houston team, Indianapolis has a good rushing offense that has been getting better as the year goes on, and Jonathan Taylor is getting worked in as the season goes on.
  • Indianapolis has 9 turnovers in the last three games, masking some of their offensive improvement, but they should have some turnover regression value.

Pick published: Nov 5 9:21am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 467

Spread

Falcons -3.5 -115

Lost: 28-31

Vikings at Falcons

Sun Nov 5 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Atlanta wins the game by more than 3 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick by our Ensemble Forecast Model, but is a play in a "fade predictive ratings" angle, and injury news.
  • So far this year, when our predictive ratings rate a team as having under 40% cover odds, they are 14-7-1 ATS. This is driven by lines that are off expectations, often because of injuries.
  • Minnesota is playing in their first game without Kirk Cousins at QB since he missed a December start against Green Bay in 2021 (that they lost 37-10), and Cousins has started nearly every game recently, starting 88 of the last 90 games for the franchise.
  • The Vikings are starting rookie Jaren Hall at QB, and traded for Josh Dobbs mid-week.

Pick published: Nov 5 9:21am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 454

Spread

Packers -3.0 -120

Won: 20-3

Rams at Packers

Sun Nov 5 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Green Bay wins the game by more than three points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 9.
  • The signs are pointing to Matthew Stafford missing the game, as the Rams signed another quarterback this week, and they also have their bye week next week, allowing more time off.
  • This spread likely doesn't reflect the full value of what the line will be if Stafford is officially ruled out, as the look-ahead line was -1.5 Rams before last Sunday, and Stafford should be worth more than 4.5 points compared to an unsettled and uncertain backup QB situation with Los Angeles.

Pick published: Nov 1 3:48pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 460

Over/Under

Titans at Steelers Over 36.5 -110

Lost: 36 points

Thu Nov 2 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tennessee and Pittsburgh score more than 36 combined points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under for Week 9.
  • Pittsburgh actually ranks 30th in total yards allowed, but is 19th in points allowed, thanks to forcing 15 turnovers. So there's regression toward their defensive yardage performance.
  • Tennessee now has Will Levis starting at quarterback, and he threw more TD passes in his first career start than the Titans had in their first six games combined. 

Pick published: Nov 1 3:48pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 309

Moneyline

Titans To Win +124

Lost: 16-20

Titans at Steelers

Thu Nov 2 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tennessee wins the game on Thursday Night Football in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model moneyline picks for Week 9.
  • Tennessee looked substantially different on offense, with Will Levis throwing four touchdown passes in his first start (Ryan Tannehill had two all season). Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has been a poor passing offense with our without Kenny Pickett, who said he would play on the short week with a rib injury. He has had more than one TD pass in one start in his career.
  • Pittsburgh leads the league in fumbles recovered (8) while being near the top of the NFL in fewest fumbles recovered by opponents (2). They rank at the top of our adjusted turnover margin metric, benefiting from 24 total turnovers/turnovers on downs/missed field goals so far, an area of regression.
  • That explains how a team that is getting outgained and has been outscored can still be 4-3. But the Steelers look overvalued, and theres a chance the Titans have found a better QB, and will have the much better passing offense in this matchup.

Pick published: Nov 1 3:48pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 309

Spread

Raiders +7.0 -108

Lost: 14-26

Raiders at Lions

Mon Oct 30 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Las Vegas wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Monday Night Football.
  • The Raiders are -10 in turnovers, worst in the NFL, and regression related to turnovers are part of the model factors.
  • The Raiders have really struggled in two losses started by backup QBs, and Jimmy Garoppolo is back this week (3-2 ATS in games he starts). 
  • The Lions will still be without RB David Montgomery, who gives the offense a different power run element that they lack otherwise, and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown was downgraded to questionable yesterday due to illness, and even if he plays, may not be at 100%.

Pick published: Oct 30 4:15pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 279

Over/Under

Chiefs at Broncos Over 45.5 -110

Lost: 33 points

Sun Oct 29 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City and Denver combine for more than 45 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Week 8.
  • These teams just played to a low-total game with 27 total points a couple of weeks ago.
  • Over the last eight years, when the first division matchup goes Under the total by at least 10 points, the rematch goes Over 60% of the time (66-44).
  • Snow is coming down in Denver early on Sunday AM, but the snowfall is expected to have stopped by game time, and wind is not expected to be high, so conditions are not such that scoring should be heavily impacted.

Pick published: Oct 29 9:41am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 271

Spread

Bengals +3.5 -115

Won: 31-17

Bengals at 49ers

Sun Oct 29 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bengals win the game or lose by fewer than 4 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick after the news and line move related to Brock Purdy.
  • Brock Purdy is entering concussion protocol after the Week 7 Monday Night game with Minnesota, and Sam Darnold is likely to start at QB for San Francisco, especially given the short week and that this is just emerging more than 24 hours after the last game ended.
  • So far this year, when our predictive rating has a game at 40% or lower (because the line has usually moved due to injuries), underdogs are 9-2 ATS if our Ensemble Forecast model is playable or a lean toward the underdog. 
  • San Francisco is also dealing with several other offensive injuries that have impacted the team in the last two losses, including Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams, and Christian McCaffrey (playing through injury).

Pick published: Oct 25 5:03pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 273

Spread

Falcons -2.5 -115

Lost: 23-28

Falcons at Titans

Sun Oct 29 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Atlanta wins the game by more than 2 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 8.
  • The Tennessee Titans will be without QB Ryan Tannehill and reportedly playing both rookie QB Will Levis and second-year QB Malik Willis (with Levis expected to start).
  • Atlanta has been a really good defensive team this year, ranking third in total yards allowed, and now getting a team with an unsettled QB situation.
  • Tennessee just traded away team leader and safety Kevin Byard, and are rumored to be in "sell" mode, and we could also be getting a motivation advantage for a team where some other veterans know they could be traded before next week's deadline.

Pick published: Oct 29 9:41am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 265

Spread

Patriots +8.5 -110

Lost: 17-31

Patriots at Dolphins

Sun Oct 29 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New England wins the game or loses by fewer than 9 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model spread pick for Week 8.
  • One of the major model factors is relative fumble recovery luck this year, as Patriots opponents have recovered 71% of fumbles in their games, while the Dolphins have recovered 68% of the fumbles in theirs.
  • Miami is dealing with several injury issues and changes in recent weeks, and isn't quite as explosive without RB De'Von Achane, while the Patriots are coming off their best offensive game of the year in the upset of Buffalo.

Pick published: Oct 29 9:41am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 261

Spread

Panthers +3.0 -110

Won: 15-13

Texans at Panthers

Sun Oct 29 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Week 8 as of today.
  • Winless Carolina will look to become the last team to get a win this season, coming off their bye week.
  • The Panthers' rush defense weakness is counteracted by the Texans' poor rushing efficiency (3.2 yards per carry).
  • Another area of regression in this matchup is related to turnovers, as Houston is +6, while Carolina is -3. In our adjusted turnover differential (which also looks at turnovers on downs and missed field goals), Houston is near the top (+8) and Carolina near the bottom (-11). Over the last two weeks, teams with the worst adjusted turnover differential in the matchup are 19-8 ATS.

Pick published: Oct 25 5:03pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 256

Spread

Vikings +6.5 -110

Won: 22-17

49ers at Vikings

Mon Oct 23 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick (and moneyline pick at +240) for Week 7.
  • San Francisco is dealing with several key injuries on offense coming off last week, as WR Deebo Samuel has been ruled out for multiple weeks, OL Trent Williams is doubtful, and RB Christian McCaffrey is questionable for the game, and could be limited even if he plays.
  • San Francisco leads the NFL in yards per point, scoring a point for every 12.1 yards gained this year, but any impact to their key offensive players could alter that efficiency.

Pick published: Oct 22 10:55am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 474

Over/Under

Packers at Broncos Under 45.0 -110

Won: 36 points

Sun Oct 22 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Denver and Green Bay combine for fewer than 45 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under pick for Week 7 according to our models.
  • These teams have gone Over in 7 of their 11 combined games so far this year.
  • However, these teams are last and 30th in offensive plays per game, with the totals going over because of opponent early scoring, and high points per yards gained and allowed.
  • Green Bay ranks 2nd overall in our points per yard metric, which is a stat subject to regression.
  • Denver had a historically bad start to the season defensively, but did show better in their last game against Kansas City.
  • Green Bay's low completion percentage (last in the NFL at 55.6%) is also a factor in our models for this Under.

Pick published: Oct 22 10:55am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 470

Spread

Cardinals +7.5 -105

Lost: 10-20

Cardinals at Seahawks

Sun Oct 22 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 7, and our highest-rated at the moment.
  • Seattle has over-performed relative to its yardage gained so far this season, as the Seahawks rank in the middle of the NFL in yards, but rank 5th in yards per point (while Arizona is 27th).
  • Arizona has played competitively this season, but has been plagued by second-half collapses. Theyve had a halftime lead in four of their six games so far, but have been outscored 98-30 after halftime. That includes getting outscored 20-0 after the break last week against the Rams, in a game where the yardage totals were pretty even for both teams.
  • Add in that Seattle has struggled as a bigger favorite in recent years (since 2017, the Seahawks are 5-13 ATS and only 10-8 SU when favored by 5 points or more at home), and well take the points in this divisional matchup.

Pick published: Oct 18 5:42pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 463

Over/Under

Raiders at Bears Under 38.5 -110

Lost: 42 points

Sun Oct 22 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Las Vegas and Chicago combine for fewer than 39 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under pick for Week 7 according to our models.
  • This game will feature backup rookie QB Tyson Bagent for Chicago, and aging veteran backup Brian Hoyer for Las Vegas, who last won a game as a starter in the NFL in 2016.
  • Las Vegas scored their season-high, 21 points, last week and has gone Under in 5 of 6.
  • Chicago had gone Over in their first 5 games, but those were with Justin Fields playing the full game in each.
  • We anticipate both teams will be conservative, settle for field goals, and try to avoid mistakes in this matchup given the starting QB situation for both teams.

Pick published: Oct 22 10:55am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 454

Moneyline

Falcons To Win +124

Won: 16-13

Falcons at Buccaneers

Sun Oct 22 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Atlanta wins the game against Tampa Bay in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated moneyline plays for Week 7 (and also a playable spread pick at +2.5).
  • Atlanta held Washington to just 13 first downs and under 200 total yards last week, but lost partly thanks to three interceptions.
  • In fact, several angles for this pick relate to possible regression around luck-related factors. Tampa Bay is +6 in turnover margin on the season, while Atlanta is -6. Atlanta has also underperformed in terms of points scored compared to yards gained.
  • Both of these teams rush defenses have been stout, but the Bucs have put up poor offensive performances in their two recent losses, with a rushing offense that ranks 32nd in the NFL.
  • That could put more pressure on QB Baker Mayfield, as the Atlanta defense is quietly playing well, ranking 4th overall in total yards allowed this season.

  •  

Pick published: Oct 18 5:42pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 451

Spread

Cardinals +7.0 -112

Lost: 9-26

Cardinals at Rams

Sun Oct 15 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Arizona Cardinals win the game or lose by fewer than 7 points in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is currently our top-rated spread pick for Week 6 in the NFL.
  • Some model factors include the Rams' low yards per carry and the Cardinals' high rushing yards and yards per carry so far, as well as the Rams' mediocre rush defense numbers.

Pick published: Oct 15 10:56am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 271

Spread

Patriots +3.0 -105

Lost: 17-21

Patriots at Raiders

Sun Oct 15 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: New England wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated playable spread pick for Week 6.
  • New England was shut out last week at home in embarrassing fashion, 34-0 to New Orleans. QB Mac Jones job is potentially in jeopardy. New England has put up two of its worst-ever performances with Bill Belichick as head coach.
  • Since the start of the 2013 season (last decade), teams that were shut out the week before and were an underdog the following week have gone 23-10-1 ATS over that span.
  • The Patriots are dead last in our adjusted turnover look at not only turnovers but turnovers on downs and missed field goals. They are near the bottom in turnovers, and have also converted only two-of-10 fourth downs and made only four of their eight field goal attempts.
  • This pick is getting points against Belichick's former assistant Josh McDaniels, who has arguably been the worst in-game strategic endgame coach this year, making several sub-optimal late decisions.

Pick published: Oct 11 4:36pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 269

Moneyline

Texans To Win +110

Won: 20-13

Saints at Texans

Sun Oct 15 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Houston wins the game against New Orleans in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick for Week 6.
  • Houston has covered in three straight, but with the point spread at only +1.5 our models see a little more value on the outright win moneyline than the spread at -110.
  • New Orleans is coming off a 34-0 shutout at New England where they forced three turnovers, had two turnovers on downs, and the Patriots missed a field goal, making it one of the most extreme turnover and miscue games of the season.
  • Model factors include New Orleans' low season yards per carry (3.4) and Houston allowing few passing touchdowns (a league-leading three allowed so far in five games).

Pick published: Oct 15 10:56am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 262

Moneyline

Commanders To Win +124

Won: 24-16

Commanders at Falcons

Sun Oct 15 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Washington has been a Jekyll-and-Hyde team this year, and are coming off an embarrassing performance, especially for the defense, where they allowed Chicago to roll, and WR D.J. Moore to have over 200 yards receiving and three touchdowns. Washington now ranks 31st in points allowed.
  • But they now get to play an Atlanta team that has not been very explosive and is not an agressive passing team. Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder only has four passing TDs this year, none longer than 15 yards (two were basically short passes behind the line to Bijan Robinson).
  • So well play on the better offense getting positive value, against a team that has yet to show consistency on that side of the ball, and for Washingtons defense to show a little better than their recent effort.

 

Pick published: Oct 11 4:36pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 253

Spread

Raiders -2.5 -108

Won: 17-13

Packers at Raiders

Mon Oct 9 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Las Vegas wins the game by more than 2 points on Monday Night Football.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 5.
  • This line has been moving in Las Vegas' favor, as we identified it as an Upset Pick last Wednesday when the Raiders were the slight dog. 
  • This is a game where the model and stat factors point to regression for both teams, in opposite directions. The Raiders have been among the worst in the league at turnovers, ranking dead last with a -9 turnover differential through four games.
  • Green Bay, meanwhile, ranks near the bottom of the league in yards, plays per drive, and yards per drive; the Packers also rank 26th in both first downs gained and first downs allowed. But they rank closer to average in actual scoring, thanks to being near the top of the league in red zone touchdown rate and by converting 100% of field goals so far.
  • Basically, Green Bay has had a lot of really poor drives, but has tended to score a touchdown on drives where they move the ball at all. Streaks like that probably cant last too much longer.
  • Packers RB Aaron Jones has also now been ruled out from playing in tonight's game.

Pick published: Oct 9 3:45pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 476

Spread

49ers -3.5 -110

Won: 42-10

Cowboys at 49ers

Sun Oct 8 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Francisco wins the game by more than 3 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model spread pick for NFL Week 5.
  • In this heavy weight NFC matchup, the San Francisco 49ers have been the more consistently efficient offense, while Dallas' margins have been inflated by a league-high four defensive and special teams scores.
  • San Francisco scored a TD on five of six actual possessions against Arizona (excluding end-of-half kneel downs). The 49ers are 2nd in the NFL in scoring on 56% of drives, but that even understates it, as they have had six possessions kneeling/running out the clock at the end of halves. They've scored on two-thirds of the drives they are trying to score.

Pick published: Oct 4 5:40pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 474

Over/Under

Chiefs at Vikings Over 52.5 -110

Lost: 47 points

Sun Oct 8 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota and Kansas City combine for more than 52 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our highest rated Over/Under picks for Week 5.
  • Over the last three years, playable Overs rated above 55% have covered 14 of 20 times.
  • Both of these teams rank near the bottom of the NFL in turnovers so far, something that has hurt their points scored. 
  • Model factors also include Kansas City's low percentage of points coming in the fourth quarter so far, Minnesota's high completion percentage allowed, Kansas City's low offensive sack rate, and Kansas City's low points allowed so far (15.0 per game).

Pick published: Oct 8 7:32am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 471

Spread

Panthers +10.0 -112

Lost: 24-42

Panthers at Lions

Sun Oct 8 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 10 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is our second-highest rated spread pick for Week 5.
  • Also playable at the common +9.5 -110 avaiable at most books.
  • Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown missed practice on Wednesday with an abdominal injury and would be a notable omission if he is out, as the Lions' best receiving threat.

Pick published: Oct 4 5:57pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 455

Over/Under

Saints at Patriots Over 39.0 -110

Lost: 34 points

Sun Oct 8 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Orleans and New England combine for more than 39 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable Over/Under pick for Week 5. Over the last three years, playable Overs rated above 55% have covered 14 of 20 times.
  • These teams have gone Under a combined 7 of their 8 games, but several regression factors point to value on the Over at this low total.
  • New Orleans is dead last in red zone TD efficiency, scoring a TD only 33% of the time so far. 
  • New England ranks 32nd and New Orleans 29th in yards per point scored so far, a measure that shows that both teams have scored fewer points than expected based on the yards gained.
  • New England just lost two key players that were a big part of why they rank 10th in yards allowed so far: CB Christian Gonzalez and LB Matthew Judon.

Pick published: Oct 8 7:32am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 461

Moneyline

Jaguars To Win +210

Won: 25-20

Jaguars vs. Bills

Sun Oct 8 • 9:30am ET

More info

How it wins: Jaguars win the game in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick for Week 5.
  • The London Jaguars got to stay in England for two straight weeks and welcome the Buffalo Bills this week. Buffalo has been rolling over the last three weeks, though the fickle shift of the turnover gods has been a part in just how dominant they have appeared.
  • After four turnovers in the opening loss to the Jets, things have swung wildly the other way, with Buffalo at +9 in turnovers over the most recent three games. Some of that extreme turnover performance is what our models are picking up.
  • We also like the potential value of the unknown situation of one team getting a travel advantage in London, something that has never happened before.

 

Pick published: Oct 8 7:32am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 451

Spread

Giants -1.5 -110

Lost: 3-24

Seahawks at Giants

Mon Oct 2 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: New York wins the game by more than 1 point in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 4.
  • These two teams actually have a very similar yardage differential profile, moreso than their point differential results and records would suggest, as Seattle has the third best adjusted turnover differential thanks to opponent 4th down fails, missed field goals, and turnovers, while the Giants haven't forced a turnover yet (and had things like a blocked FG returned for TD). 
  • Seattle also ranks highly in our yards per point measure while the Giants are near the bottom of the league, another stat that tends to regress. 
  • Seattle is also likely to be a very popular pick, as our early pool data shows over 70% of the public picking the Seahawks outright to win even though they are the underdog.
  • New York has struggled on offense against the 49ers and Cowboys, while racking up 26 first downs against the Cardinals. The Seahawks are 29th in yards and points allowed, and 30th in first downs allowed after three games.

Pick published: Sep 26 9:11pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 280

Spread

Raiders +6.5 -110

Lost: 17-24

Raiders at Chargers

Sun Oct 1 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Las Vegas wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model NFL pick for Week 4.
  • Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been ruled out (concussion) and rookie Aidan O'Connell is expected to start.
  • Garoppolo had six interceptions in his first three games, and the Raiders are a league-worst -7 in turnover margin, a regression category that is a factor in our models. 
  • Las Vegas is also dead-last in rushing yards, coming after Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL in rushing yards last year, had an extended hold out that resolved right before the season, but they draw a Chargers team that is 31st in total yards allowed, and was dead last in rush yards per carry last year.
  • While Garoppolo's absence may get the most attention, the Chargers have several key players out, as starting center Corey Linsley has an unspecified illness and was just placed on IR with a "non-emergent heart condition", defensive end Joey Bosa and safety Derwin James are both unlikely to play, and WR MIke Williams suffered a torn ACL last week. RB Austin Ekeler is also not expected to return this week.

Pick published: Oct 1 9:22am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 271

Spread

Patriots +7.0 -115

Lost: 3-38

Patriots at Cowboys

Sun Oct 1 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: New England wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model spread pick for Week 4.
  • New England has allowed 811 total yards, very similar to Dallas' 786, even though the Patriots have played the Eagles and Dolphins' offenses, while the Cowboys have played the Giants and Cardinals (both played the Jets). 
  • The difference is in turnovers and other high leverage plays that are less predictive, as Dallas is 1st in our adjusted net turnovers, while New England is near the bottom. 
  • Dallas also lost CB Trevon Diggs for the season and struggled in allowing some big plays to the Cardinals in the Week 3 loss.
  • Other model factors include the Patriots defensive efficiency at stopping both the run and pass in recent games, as well as fumble recovery rates.

Pick published: Sep 26 9:11pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 273

Spread

Vikings -4.5 -106

Won: 21-13

Vikings at Panthers

Sun Oct 1 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota wins the game by more than 4 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 4.
  • The Vikings have had terrible fumble luck, recovering only 1 of 12 total fumbles (by them or the opponent) in the first three games, as all have been close losses.
  • The Panthers' high fumble recovery rate in recent games, as well as the Vikings strong passing numbers and high rate of pass TDs, are other factors.

Pick published: Oct 1 9:22am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 255

Over/Under

Ravens at Browns Over 38.5 -110

Lost: 31 points

Sun Oct 1 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baltimore and Cleveland combine for more than 38 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under model pick for Week 4.
  • The Browns' defense has been dominant so far, but we'll play a little contrarian with this low total, for some positive scoring regression for both of these teams.
  • Some model factors include the Browns' low first downs per play and opponents' first downs per play, and the low percentage of scoring coming in the first quarter, where none of the previous three opponents have scored in the first quarter this year.
  • Over the last five years, games with a similar Over/Under (between 37.5 and 39.5) have gone 34-26 on the Over.

Pick published: Oct 1 9:22am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 259

Moneyline

Titans To Win +130

Won: 27-3

Bengals at Titans

Sun Oct 1 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Tennessee Titans win the game in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline (and spread pick at +2.5) in Week 4.
  • The Bengals won 19-16 last week, taking advantage of a LT injury for the Rams to shut down their offense and create lots of pressure last week, but the offense is still not clicking.
  • Some of the key model factors here including the Titans' strong rush defense (2.6 yards per carry allowed) and the Bengals' low rate of picking up first downs on the ground, Cincinnati's low passing yards totals in recent games, and the Titans' rush to pass splits.

Pick published: Oct 1 9:22am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 270

Moneyline

Rams To Win +124

Lost: 16-19

Rams at Bengals

Mon Sep 25 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Los Angeles Rams win the game at Cincinnati in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • This is also a line that is far off the expected moneyline based on full season power ratings (because of the uncertainty over Joe Burrow and his injury). Over the first two weeks, underdogs on the moneyline that are more than -10% off what we would expect based on power ratings are 5-2 for +5 units. (These also tend to be situations where injuries are impacting the line, beyond the base rating.)
  • Joe Burrow's status for this game is up in the air, but we like the pick whether he plays while still hurt (where the Bengals have been really bad on offense and he is averaging under 5 yards per attempt while limited) or Jake Browning, who has never completed a pass in the NFL and is 27 years old, starts instead.
  • The Rams are also a live dog, as they are 2nd in the NFL in total yards after two weeks and the offense has returned to form with a healthy Matthew Stafford, even without WR Cooper Kupp.

Pick published: Sep 20 5:49pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 479

Spread

Raiders -2.5 -110

Lost: 18-23

Steelers at Raiders

Sun Sep 24 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Las Vegas wins the game by more than 2 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast Model.
  • Early line movement has already pushed this line over the last two days, but we think there is still value if you can jump in while it is below the key "field goal" number.
  • Pittsburgh won on Monday Night, but it wasn't pretty and they benefited from two defensive scores. The offense ran zero plays inside the Cleveland 30-yard line.
  • Pittsburgh is still without their top possession receiver Diontae Johnson (who went on IR before Week 2) and the other starting WR George Pickens was limited in practice due to a hamstring injury. Given that this offense is already 31st in total yards after two weeks, any impacts to the starters provides value against them.

Pick published: Sep 20 5:53pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 476

Spread

Panthers +5.0 -110

Lost: 27-37

Panthers at Seahawks

Sun Sep 24 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is our second highest--rated model spread pick for Week 3 based on our Ensemble Forecast Model.
  • Seattle is also very popular in our spread pool data at over 70% of the picks on Seattle in ATS pools and over 96% picking Seattle to win the game outright.
  • The line however is moving against Seattle, and against that public popularity. That is a situation that has been profitable to play against in the past, and so far this year, when our data shows over 70% popularity on one side, and the line has moved the other direction, the unpopular side is 3-1 ATS.
  • Carolina is starting veteran Andy Dalton over first overall pick Bryce Young, but Dalton may be better able to exploit a Seattle defense that ranks 31st in yards and yards allowed per pass so far this year.

Pick published: Sep 24 10:32am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 469

Spread

Cardinals +12.5 -110

Won: 28-16

Cowboys at Cardinals

Sun Sep 24 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game or loses by fewer than 13 points against Dallas in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 3, before any news.
  • We are adding it as a Staff Pick to grab the line, now that it has been reported that Dallas' star cornerback Trevon Diggs suffered a torn ACL in practice today.
  • Our assessment is that Diggs is a valuable player, and if you think he is worth about 1-2 points, you are getting a little extra line value on an already large line, before the market has fully reacted.
  • Our models already favor Arizona with the large point spread because of some strong regression factors, including Dallas significantly outperforming their points so far relative to yards gained, and  having a +7 turnover margin through two games.

Pick published: Sep 21 4:39pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 472

Spread

Broncos +6.0 -110

Lost: 20-70

Broncos at Dolphins

Sun Sep 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Denver wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Week 3 based on our Ensemble Forecast Model.
  • Miami is also very popular in our spread pool data, and is the most popular spread pick on BetMGM.
  • The line however is moving against Miami, and against that public popularity. That is a situation that has been profitable to play against in the past, and so far this year, when our data shows over 70% popularity on one side, and the line has moved the other direction, the unpopular side is 3-1 ATS.

Pick published: Sep 24 10:32am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 461

Over/Under

Giants at 49ers Under 44.0 -110

Won: 42 points

Thu Sep 21 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Giants and 49ers combine for fewer than 44 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model Under for Week 3 of the NFL season.
  • The Giants will be without both RB Saquon Barkley and LT Andrew Thomas in this matchup.
  • San Francisco's Brandon Aiyuk has an injury and as of pick time is still uncertain for tonight (but given the short week is more likely to miss).
  • Given New York's struggles against a similarly-strong defensive unit in Dallas in the opener and the offensive injuries, this projects as a game where the offense will struggle, and the 49ers will likely be served by a more run-heavy approach to limit mistakes that would allow the Giants to win.

Pick published: Sep 21 12:37pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 302

Spread

Panthers +3.0 -102

Push: 17-20

Saints at Panthers

Mon Sep 18 • 7:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread and moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • The Saints are one of the most popular picks showing up in our public pool data, so this is a chance to play against public sentiment. In game winner pools, 87% of the public is picking the Saints, and in spread pools, it?s 72%, making the Saints the current most popular spread pick in ATS pools. (In Week 1, the five most popular spread picks went 1-4 ATS and 2-3 SU, all as favorites.)
  • The Panthers lost because of the -3 turnover margin, as they outgained Atlanta, and the defense held the Falcons to 221 total yards and 13 first downs.
  • The Saints hit some big plays (including a 41-yard bomb on third down to seal the win over the Titans) but only had 15 first downs in the 16-15 win, and struggled to run the ball (2.6 yards per carry) with Jamaal Williams, while Alvin Kamara is still suspended.

Pick published: Sep 13 5:11pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 290

Spread

Jets +8.5 -105

Lost: 10-30

Jets at Cowboys

Sun Sep 17 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The New York Jets win the game or lose by fewer than 9 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model plays for Week 2 in the NFL.
  • The line in this one immediately jumped 5-6 points from the look-ahead line on Monday, after the Aaron Rodgers injury.
  • This Jets team, though, is a strong defensive unit and one with playmaking skill players on offense (Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall) and this number jump may be too big a reaction (remember, just a year ago, it was Dallas in Week 2 who became a big underdog against Cincinnati because Dak Prescott was hurt and Cooper Rush was going to start).
  • Dallas also won 40-0 last week, but had only 265 yards of offense, and easily rank 1st in our yards per point measure, something that can be an indicator of regression.
  • There have been only five times in the last 15 years that a Week 1 team won and scored 30+ while having fewer than 300 yards, and they went 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS the next week. 

Pick published: Sep 17 10:58am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 283

Over/Under

Packers at Falcons Under 40.5 -115

Lost: 49 points

Sun Sep 17 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Green Bay and Atlanta combine for fewer than 41 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model Over/Under for Week 2 in the NFL.
  • Both of these teams were near the bottom of the league in pace of play in Week 1.
  • They both rank in the top 3 in yards per point in the first week, meaning they scored more points than you would expect on the yards they gained. Green Bay scored 38 points while gaining 329 yards and 15 first downs. Atlanta scored 24 points on 221 yards and 13 first downs. 
  • Atlanta has played a ball-control rush-heavy offense for last year and to start Week 1, and that style will likely dictate how Green Bay plays as well, especially with their injury situations.
  • Green Bay will still likely be without WR Christian Watson, who missed Week 1, and also looks unlikely to have RB Aaron Jones (127 yards and 2 TDs last week).

Pick published: Sep 17 10:58am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 266

Spread

Bengals -3.5 -105

Lost: 24-27

Ravens at Bengals

Sun Sep 17 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati wins the game by more than 3 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model spread pick, but we are recommending this because we think you can grab some line value based on Ravens' injuries.
  • Cincinnati is coming off a dreadful offensive performance, which can at least be partially excused because Joe Burrow got no practice time in the preseason with the calf injury, and the Browns have traditionally played him tough before last week. So you can get some Bengals' bounceback potential while they are relatively unpopular (the Bengals are the least popular of the 16 betting favorites in our pool data).
  • Baltimore has so many key injuries coming out of Week 1. They lost RB J.K. Dobbins to a season-ending injury. LT Ronnie Stanley and C Tyler Linderbaum both sustained injuries and their status is in doubt (Linderbaum got rolled up late on this play.) S Marcus Williams is out with a pectoral injury. And today, CB Marlon Humphrey didn't practice because of a foot injury. So we think it's more likely that this line moves against Baltimore as injury absences become official.

Pick published: Sep 13 5:11pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 278

Spread

Bears +3.0 -110

Lost: 17-27

Bears at Buccaneers

Sun Sep 17 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chicago wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of top playable spread picks for Week 2 in the NFL.
  • Our models are picking up several regression factors that could provide value on the underdog in this matchup.
  • Tampa Bay won in an upset at Minnesota in Week 1, but were outgained by 127 yards, and benefited from a +3 turnover margin.
  • Chicago was the opposite, losing as a slight favorite to Green Bay, as the yards in the 38-20 loss were pretty even. Green Bay only had 15 first downs but had some big plays and a pick-six, and the Bears were -2 in turnovers.
  • While Baker Mayfield is getting some praise for the road upset, he still only averaged 5.1 yards per attempt in his Bucs debut. The Bucs also had only 73 rush yards on 33 attempts, so the offense wasn't very efficient but just bunched its key plays together.

Pick published: Sep 12 3:57pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 271

Player Prop

Dallas Goedert Over 48.5 Receiving Yards -110

Lost: 6 rec, 22 yards

Vikings at Eagles

Thu Sep 14 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Dallas Goedert has more than 48 receiving yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Dallas Goedert had 0 catches in the Week 1 opener versus New England, and was only targeted once. It marked the first time since 2019 that the tight end had no catches.
  • This number is directly on where we would put Goedert's per-game average based on our preseason projections, but with the matchup against Minnesota and the likelihood that the Eagles' game plan seeks to establish Goedert early following last week's lack of usage, there is Over value.
  • After last week, head coach Nick Sirianni said: "This reminds me a lot of last year against the Lions," Sirianni said. "Smitty [WR DeVonta Smith] had no catches against the Lions last year. This year, it was Dallas. We can't go a game without getting him the football. He's too good of a playmaker but there are some things that the Patriots did that made it difficult for us to be able to get him some quick, easy touches."
  • After his previous lowest catch outing under Sirianni (Week 12 of 2021, 1 catch for 0 yards against the Giants), Goedert came back the next week and had one of the best games of his career, with 6 catches for 105 yards and 2 TDs against the Jets. 
  • Since Jalen Hurts became starting QB in 2021, Goedert has had 49 or more receiving yards in 18 of 32 games (56%).

Pick published: Sep 14 4:15pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Player Prop

Deonte Harty Over 17.5 Receiving Yards -110

Lost: 3 catches, 9 yards

Bills at Jets

Mon Sep 11 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Deonte Harty finishes with more than 17 receiving yards in Week 1 Monday Night Football.

Staff notes:

  • Deonte Harty is very likely the Bills' starting slot WR based on preseason usage, as he was on the field for 75% of the snaps with the first team offense in the August 19th game, ahead of guys like Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield.
  • You might remember Harty as Deonte Harris, as he changed his last name to honor his stepfather. He missed most of last year with a turf toe injury with the Saints, but had over 500 yards receiving in 2021, and went over 20 yards in 10 of 12 games played that year.
  • So we think we are getting some value here on this number for a guy who could play a significant amount of snaps in the slot for Buffalo, because of uncertainty, not playing much last year, and playing with a new team. This is a Bills team that struggled to replace the Cole Beasley role last year (with Isaiah McKenzie/Shakir/Jamison Crowder) and Harty could be serving in that vital role.
  • There's also matchup-related reasons to like Harty here. The Jets' Sauce Gardner is one of the best cover corners in the NFL, and should be matched up on the outside with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and the better opportunities might come for the Bills' slot and tight end spots.
  • Harty is a big YAC and quickness/speed guy and just needs a few opportunities to hit this number, maybe even one. 
  • We aren't listing it as an official play, but for a lot of the same reasons, we like Harty as a "any time TD scorer" for Buffalo at his longshot price (+650 at FD, +700 at DK). 

Pick published: Sep 11 2:38pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Player Future

J.K. Dobbins Over 750.5 Rushing Yards +100

Lost: 22 rush yards, torn Achilles out for year

Baltimore Ravens

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: J.K. Dobbins rushes for more than 750 yards during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Dobbins is 933 rush yards for the 2023 season, more than 180 yards of Over value.
  • Our projections put Dobbins at RB21 in half-PPR scoring, very similar to his RB20 ranking on Underdog Fantasy.
  • The yards total market has gone down here, but we see that as an overreaction based on vague reports of Dobbins sitting out most of training camp. Reading between the lines, Dobbins was having a "sit-in" in protest of his contract but is ready to play. Nothing about the Ravens actions (no rumored interest in free agent veterans for example) suggests they are worried about Dobbins.
  • Baltimore doesn't have any significant depth behind Dobbins, so he should get a good amount of carries.
  • Dobbins had 500 yards in only 8 games last year coming back from missing the entire 2021 season due to a knee injury, and the market may be a little low here on the past injury info and raw rushing totals. 

Pick published: Aug 25 3:05pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Justin Fields Any Time TD Scorer +155

Lost: 0 TD

Packers at Bears

Sun Sep 10 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Justin Fields scores a rushing or receiving TD in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • Last year, after the Bears switched up the offense for the New England game on Monday Night Football, he went on a streak of five straight games scoring a TD, until he suffered an injury that caused him to miss the Jets game (he only scored once after that while playing through injury.)
  • He comes into this game healthy, and with better weapons on the outside. Add in that the Bears are in a rivalry game and a slight favorite (a role they will likely not be in much over the year), so we project Fields to have a better than 40% chance of scoring.

Pick published: Sep 10 11:24am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Player Prop

Raheem Mostert Under 69.5 Rushing Yards -125

Won: 37 rush yards

Dolphins at Chargers

Sun Sep 10 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Raheem Mostert rushes for fewer than 70 yards in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This rushing prop is the sixth-highest of Week 1 at DraftKings, behind only Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, and Bijan Robinson.
  • This prop is as high as it is, likely, because (a) Jeff Wilson's injury likely makes Mostert the top running back in Miami to start the year, and (b) the Chargers rush defense was bad last year, allowing a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry.
  • The 31-year-old Mostert would have only gone over this total in only four of 16 games last year while operating as the lead back in Miami.
  • We'll play into the uncertainty with this big number that is close to where the top six backs in the NFL (by average fantasy draft position) are going. The Chargers rush defense could improve with better Week 1 health and offseason changes, such as signing Eric Kendricks and getting Joey Bosa, and the Dolphins could still operate a committee in Week 1 with rookie DeVon Achane and Salvon Ahmed also playing, so that Mostert doesn't get the expected volume needed.
  • We also have Miami as a playable Under, and they are missing left tackle Terron Armstead for this game.

Pick published: Sep 10 11:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Over/Under

Dolphins at Chargers Under 51.0 -110

Lost: 70 points

Sun Sep 10 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami and the LA Chargers combine for fewer than 51 points in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated Over/Under pick for Week 1 in the NFL.
  • Miami LT Terron Armstead has been officially ruled out for Sunday.
  • Miami averaged 16.3 points per game in the four games Armstead missed last season, and scored 17 in the game he left after 8 snaps. They averaged 26.3 points in all other games.

Pick published: Sep 8 8:22pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 474

Spread

Patriots +4.0 -105

Lost: 20-25

Eagles at Patriots

Sun Sep 10 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: New England wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model underdog spread pick for Week 1.
  • Over the last two NFL seasons, playable model underdog picks are 70-47-3 ATS (59.6%)
  • Philadelphia is coming off a Super Bowl season, and our models are a little lower than the market on the Eagles to start the year, based on some regression factors (extremely easy opponent schedule last year, injuries, rush-heavy team).
  • New England is coming off a year where they literally had a defensive coach (Matt Patricia) serving as offensive coordinator, and they have replaced him with an actual competent offensive coordinator in former Texans head coach Bill O'Brien, and that should provide value on the Patriots' offense relative to last year. 
  • New England is in a home underdog role, where they are 11-11 SU and 14-8 ATS under Bill Belichick.

Pick published: Sep 6 6:50pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 476

Moneyline

Browns To Win +110

Won: 24-3

Bengals at Browns

Sun Sep 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cleveland wins the game in Week 1 against Cincinnati.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top model plays on the moneyline for Week 1 and one of the picks featured in Wednesday's Upset Picks.
  • Cleveland has played well against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense in the past, including holding the Bengals to their lowest offensive output of the 2022 season.
  • Burrow is coming off a preseason where he suffered an early calf injury and had limited practice time.
  • There's some uncertainty upside on this Browns team as a home dog in the opener, as Deshaun Watson struggled in his late-season return last year after multiple years not playing, but the team could be a better passing team early in 2023.

Pick published: Sep 10 11:25am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 458

Spread

Cardinals +7.0 -110

Won: 16-20

Cardinals at Commanders

Sun Sep 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model underdog spread pick (and our top-rated moneyline play for Week 1, if you would rather play the moneyline).
  • Arizona is expected to be the worst team in the NFL this year, and QB Kyler Murray is starting the year on PUP, and the team is likely to start Josh Dobbs, who they acquired via trade two weeks ago, though they have not named a starter between he and rookie Clayton Tune.
  • Washington is the most popular spread pick in our pool spread data (with 77% of all pool players taking Washington) and is also being reported as an extremely popular spread pick by sportsbooks, yet the line has not budged.
  • Several trends point toward playing the uncertainty of opening day and the points here, while public sentiment is very down on Arizona.
  • Over the last 20 years, favorites of 4.5 or more points facing a Week 1 opponent with a new head coach are only 15-24 ATS.
  • Over that same span, only 13 Week 1 favorites of 4.5 or more had starting a QB who had started fewer than four games for the franchise. This could include cases like Trey Lance starting last year in San Franciscos opener, and also cases where a team had a veteran (acquired in the offseason via free agency or trade) who was the starter. That group went 7-5-1 SU. All other bigger Week 1 favorites (with QBs who had played more games for the franchise) were 94-30.
  • It rarely comes up, but in that same data set, only five favorites drew an underdog starting a backup QB because the starter was out with injury or suspension, and those favorites only went 2-3 SU.
  • Washington's Sam Howell is making his second career start in the NFL, Arizona has a new coach (Jonathan Gannon) and QB, and this game has a lot of uncertainty factors that favor taking the points.

Pick published: Sep 6 6:50pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 467

Spread

Texans +10.0 -110

Lost: 9-25

Texans at Ravens

Sun Sep 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Houston Texans win the game or lose by fewer than 10 points in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 1.
  • There are also several trends that favor Houston in this matchup.
  • Since 2003, there have been only 31 games where the Week 1 spread was 9 points or higher. Favorites are 26-5 SU but only 9-22 ATS in those games.
  • We have a database of coach and QB factors, and since 2003, there have been only 39 Week 1 games where a team was an underdog of 4.5 points while playing its first game with a new head coach. The underdog with the new head coach is 24-15 ATS over that span. 
  • There have been only 15 games where the underdog of 4.5 points or more was starting a rookie QB in Week 1 in the last 20 years. The team starting the rookie QB is 5-10 SU but 10-5 ATS.
  • Houston is now coached by former 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, and just named rookie QB C.J. Stroud as the Week 1 starter.
  • We have admittedly small sample sizes in these real-life cases of rookie QBs and coaches, but there is reason to believe that the market probably does overvalue certainty and teams/coaches/QBs it has seen before, and there is value on the new coaches and young QBs in their debut, when getting a lot of points. 
  • This line is at +9.5 to +10 at various books, so we would recommend grabbing the +10 if you can. It's fine to play at +9.5 but you should shop and wait to see if you can get the key 10 number if possible.

Pick published: Aug 29 5:38pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 455

Team Prop

Chiefs to have the most sacks +100

Won: 2 sacks to 0

Chiefs vs. Eagles

Sun Feb 12 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City finishes with more sacks than Philadelphia in the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • The Eagles are the slight favorite to have more sacks, because they led the NFL in sacks in the regular season with 70 (Kansas City also was near the top of the NFL, with 55).
  • However, sacks are also in large part a QB stat, and the Eagles also played a lot of quarterbacks who take sacks. In the 7 games against QBs with a sack rate of 6% or lower this season, the Eagles only averaged 2.4 sacks, and 4 of the 7 QBs were sacked 0 or 1 times.
  • Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts' sack rate (7.6%) is nearly double that of Mahomes (3.9%) this year, and the Chiefs' defense has performed well in terms of sacks against the more similar matchups to this one on the schedule, while the Eagles have not faced an offense similar to KC.
  • Patrick Mahomes has been one of the best in the NFL since his debut at avoiding sacks. In 93 career starts, Mahomes has only been sacked on 10% or more of his dropbacks in 5 of them.

Pick published: Feb 10 12:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Jalen Hurts Over 49.5 Rushing Yards -110

Won: 70 rushing yards

Chiefs vs. Eagles

Sun Feb 12 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jalen Hurts rushes for more than 49 yards in the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is a prop play based on the spread and total and playing on the scenario that the Eagles could be in a closer game than they have been for most games this the year.
  • Jalen Hurts has carried the ball far more in close games, averaging over 15 attempts a game in those decided by one score, compared to 7.8 attempts in all other games. The only game where Hurts has had a low rushing attempt total in single digits in a close game was the season finale, his first game back from the shoulder injury.
  • Hurts was Philadelphias leading rusher in four of the seven one-score games he played in.
  • If you want a related longer shot play where we see value, you can get Hurts to be the leading rusher for the game at +275 at PointsBet, as detailed in our Super Bowl props article.
     

Pick published: Feb 10 12:10pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Player Prop

Jalen Hurts Over 0.5 interceptions thrown +115

Lost: 0 interceptions

Chiefs vs. Eagles

Sun Feb 12 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jalen Hurts throws an interception in the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • Jalen Hurts has thrown only six interceptions all season, and has a low 1.3% interception rate.
  • However, in looking over past Super Bowl games, the interception rate for the quarterback entering the game has little relation to whether interceptions were thrown in the Super Bowl.
  • In fact, 80% of the quarterbacks in the last 20 years who had an INT rate of 1.5% or lower in the regular season threw a pick in the Super Bowl.
  • The last game without any interceptions thrown in the Super Bowl was all the way back in Rams vs. Titans in January of 2000.
  • Seventeen of the last 26 starting QBs in the Super Bowl have thrown a pick.
  • In a similarity analysis of teams most similar to the Eagles in the Super Bowl, nine of the ten QBs threw a pick, and it included a lot of rushing QBs and low volume passers in the regular season.

Pick published: Feb 10 12:05pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Player Future

Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP +140

Won: voted MVP

Kansas City Chiefs

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Patrick Mahomes is voted the AP NFL MVP at the end of the 2022 season.

Staff notes:

  • UPDATE: about an hour after we posted this pick, news broke that Jalen Hurts' status for next week is uncertain after a shoulder injury. That caused the market to get pulled temporarily, and it has re-opened at -300 to -350 for Mahomes depending on book. You can read our logic below on why we thought Mahomes should have been the favorite even before that news.
  • The NFL MVP race is most likely coming down to Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts with three games remaining.
  • A couple of years ago, we laid out a formula for predicting the NFL MVP based on the stat rankings, by looking at which categories were most correlated with the winner.
  • The six primary categories most correlated with MVP were, in order of importance/correlation: (1) Team Wins Rank (2) Total TDs Rank (Passing+Rushing/Receiving) (3) Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Rank (4) Passer Rating Rank (5) Team Points Scored Rank (6) Pass TD Rate Rank.
  • The winner in those six categories by lowest weighted rank average has won the MVP each of the last 12 seasons, except for the one year a non-QB won the award (Adrian Peterson in 2012).
  • Plugging those in this year (and using our projected wins for that category), Mahomes comes in with a weighted rank score of 2.1, Hurts at 3.2, and Josh Allen in third at 4.0.
  • The Eagles do have more wins, but the Chiefs have slightly more points scored per game, and Mahomes leads in total TDs (38 to 35) and has the edge in all the other rate categories as well.
  • The market is starting to shift, and you can find a variety of prices, but we believe the market is currently off overall, where Hurts is more commonly the favorite. 
  • BetMGM has the best price right now, but this is playable to Mahomes having a slight edge (up to -140) before the Week 16 games, as he looks like the QB who should be the favorite right now pending the final three week results.

Pick published: Dec 19 3:49pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Player Future

Christian McCaffrey Comeback Player of the Year +1600

Lost: 2nd, Geno Smith won

San Francisco 49ers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Christian McCaffrey wins the 2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award.

Staff notes:

  • Christian McCaffrey has played in only 10 combined games over the last two seasons after having numerous injuries, including two different ankle injuries, a shoulder injury, and muscle strains.
  • In the two seasons, prior to that, McCaffrey had over 4,300 total yards from scrimmage and scored 32 touchdowns.
  • McCaffrey, who is still only 26 years old, is a top five running back in the fantasy football average draft position market, and is top five in our projected stats for running backs as well.
  • For comparison on the value on McCaffrey, Derrick Henry (who missed half the season last year) has a similar ADP rank in fantasy football and similar overall projection in our rankings, but is +350 to win Comeback Player of the Year.
  • The price at FanDuel is also a bit off-market on McCaffrey and has him behind lots of players, as he is +800 at DraftKings.
  • This is a narrative award, and McCaffrey will have a good narrative if he stays healthy after two tough seasons, and just performs up to expectations. The quarterback with the shortest odds, Deshaun Watson, meanwhile, doesn't have a good narrative that is likely to embraced by voters (and still faces potential suspension). The odds are still long because another quarterback (Winston, Daniel Jones, Trubisky, Mariota) could surprise after either being injured or re-surfacing in a new role, but McCaffrey has better odds than this long shot number.

Pick published: May 19 5:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Spread

Chiefs +2.0 -110

Won: 23-20

Bengals at Chiefs

Sun Jan 29 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points in AFC Champ Game.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model play for the Conference Championship Round.
  • Kansas City opened as the favorite but the market moved to Cincinnati as the favorite on concern over Patrick Mahomes' ankle. That line peaked at -2.5 but has settled back.
  • As of right now, Patrick Mahomes is expected to play and be in a rare home dog role, and we'll take the points and discount based on the injury concerns.
  • Home underdogs in the Conference Champ Games since 2000 are 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS. 

Pick published: Jan 25 12:44pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 324

Custom Bet

AFC West Team To Win AFC +150

Won: KC wins 23-20 in AFC Champ

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: An AFC West team (the Chiefs or Chargers) wins the AFC Conference Championship.

Staff notes:

  • According to our automated predictions, there is a 41% chance that either Kansas City or the LA Chargers wins the AFC, above the 40% cutoff for positive value on this line.
  • In addition, the Chargers are likely better than their power rating based on past injuries and a points-to-yards profile that is underestimating them by looking at past point differential.
  • The Chargers also profile (with their pass-run distribution and pass profile) as the type of team capable of a run as a Wild Card.

Pick published: Jan 13 9:48am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Team Future

49ers to win NFC +200

Lost: 7-31 in NFC Champ game

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: San Francisco reaches the Super Bowl out of the NFC.

Staff notes:

  • San Francisco is currently the second-favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, behind Philadelphia, in the betting markets.
  • Our predictive power ratings have San Francisco rated as the top team in the NFC and second overall to Buffalo.
  • San Francisco finished the year ranked 1st in defensive yards allowed per game and points allowed per game.
  • Our similar playoff team analysis shows that teams with San Francisco's profile (point differential, yards on offense and defense, pass-run distribution) have performed very well, with 5 of the top 8 most similar playoff teams reaching the Super Bowl (2004 NE, 2010 PIT, 2017 PHI, 2019 SF, 2012 SF).

Pick published: Jan 10 4:11pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Spread

49ers -3.5 -110

Won: 19-12

Cowboys at 49ers

Sun Jan 22 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Francisco wins the game by more than 3 points in the Divisional Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model pick for the Divisional Round.
  • Both defenses are capable of creating turnovers, and Dallas' offense is certainly capable of putting up a really good performance. But this San Francisco team has been the more consistently dominant defense at stopping opponents (independent of turnovers), has been the more consistently dominant rushing team.
  • Dallas' relative weakness on defense is the rush defense, and San Francisco should have an advantage there and in the red zone with that advantage.

Pick published: Jan 22 10:06am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 318

Spread

Ravens +9.0 -110

Won: 17-24

Ravens at Bengals

Sun Jan 15 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baltimore wins the game or loses by fewer than 9 points in the Wild Card Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the Wild Card round.
  • Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson remains out, but his absence is already accounted in the line at this point, while several key players that sat out last week's game, like TE Mark Andrews and RB J.K. Dobbins, will play in this one.
  • Since 2002, home favorites in the playoffs are 13-11 SU and 8-16 ATS when playing a division foe.
  • Some model angles showing up are the Bengals having a low rush TD percentage in the last seven games, and the Ravens rush defense doing will in the last seven games, things that could play into red zone performance.

Pick published: Jan 13 3:14pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 149

Spread

Chargers -2.0 -110

Lost: 30-31

Chargers at Jaguars

Sat Jan 14 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Los Angeles Chargers win by more than 2 points in the Wild Card Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on our similar playoff teams and matchup analysis.
  • Jacksonville is a No. 4 seed out of the weakest division, had a much bettter points allowed (12th) than yards allowed (24th), and had a low preseason win expectation, and the most similar playoff teams to the Jaguars since 2003 underperformed both against the spread and straight up, averaging nearly 5 points worse than the spread.
  • The Charges had the opposite issue, ranking lower in points scored (13th) than yards gained (9th) and also dealing with several key offensive injuries that impacted regular season production. The Chargers' playoff comps averaged outperforming the spread by 4 points, and won and covered about 60% of the time in the first playoff game.
  • The Chargers ranked last in rush yards per carry allowed, but playoff teams that had allowed 4.8 yards per carry or higher in the regular season are 15-10 ATS in the playoffs in the last decade.

Pick published: Jan 11 2:56pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 143

Team Future

Bills to get AFC No. 1 Seed -200

Lost: No. 2 seed

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Buffalo Bills finish as the No. 1 seed in the AFC at the end of the regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for the Bills is 14.1 wins for the season, more than 3 wins higher than any team in the AFC other than Kansas City.
  • According to our simulations, the Bills have a 79.7% chance of getting the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
  • Buffalo already has head-to-head wins over the two teams we have projected for the next-highest wins in the AFC, in Kansas City and Baltimore, and would get the No. 1 seed if they finished tied on record with either, effectively giving them a two-game lead over KC and three-game lead over Baltimore.

Pick published: Oct 24 5:48pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Leader +900

Won: 5250 yards, 1st in NFL

Kansas City Chiefs

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections for the rushing yards and receiving yards are directly in line with the offered odds in those categories, but we see value on Patrick Mahomes in the passing category, as he has the highest projected passing yards in our player projections, ahead of Derek Carr and Justin Herbert.
  • This line is also slightly off-market, as some other books have Mahomes closer to +800 and as a co-favorite in the category.
  • An analysis of the passing yards leaders over the last decade shows that 80% of them were in the top five in passing yards per game the previous season, so this is not a feat that tends to come out of nowhere (in fact, Mahomes in his first starting season in 2018 and Dak Prescott in 2019 are the only two to finish 1st or 2nd in the category after having not ranked in the top 12 the previous season in yards per game).
  • Mahomes was 5th in passing yards per game last season, led the NFL in passing yards per game in 2020 (and would have led in yards if he hadn't sat Week 17), and also leads in yards per game over the last four seasons (301.7 yards per game).
  • The average passing yards leader played on a team that had a preseason win total of 10.0 wins (pro-rated to 17 games) and Kansas City is at 10.5 wins entering the season.
  • The Chiefs play a very tough schedule against lots of other good passing teams, which should lead to increased passing from Mahomes.
  • Of course, to win this award, the quarterback has to stay healthy and likely play every game, but if the Chiefs play near their win total expectation, he should be a favorite or co-favorite to lead the NFL.

Pick published: May 19 5:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Dallas Goedert Under 724.5 Receiving Yards -112

Won: 702 yards

Philadelphia Eagles

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Dallas Goedert has fewer than 725 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Goedert is 629 receiving yards, with 95 yards of value.
  • Goedert finished 2021 with 830 receiving yards, but we project value on the Under for several reasons.
  • First, the Eagles traded for WR A.J. Brown and Goedert now has more target competition, and even if the Eagles do pass a little more, Goedert's relative target share should go down.
  • Second, Goedert had a career high 14.8 yards per reception, allowing him to get to 830 yards despite only 56 catches. His career average over four seasons is 11.9 yards per reception.
  • So we like multiple outs here, in addition to injury risk at the tight end position, as Goedert can go under even with a similar number of catches if his yards per catch regresses, and can also go under by seeing less reception volume.

Pick published: Jul 14 1:00pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Player Future

Deebo Samuel Under 349.5 Rushing Yards +100

Won: 232 yards

San Francisco 49ers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Deebo Samuel has fewer than 350 rushing yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our current projection is for 211 rushing yards for Deebo Samuel.
  • Samuel had 365 rushing yards last season, on 59 rush attempts (6.2 ypc), which would have just barely cleared this total, and it seems like a ceiling outcome.
  • Injuries to the San Francisco RB corp last year created the necessity for Samuel to work more as a running back. Projected starter Raheem Mostert had only two carries, rookie Elijah Mitchell was the leading rusher while missing six games, Jeff Wilson missed eight games, rookie Trey Sermon disappointed and was inactive for half the season.
  • The running back health situation will likely be better in 2022, with the team drafting Tyrion Davis-Price, and all the other backs (Mitchell, Wilson, and Sermon) currently healthy.
  • Samuel also got a big contract this offseason after expressing displeasure with his usage as both a running back and receiver.
  • So while we project the team to still use Samuel as a playmaker occasionally out of the backfield, and project him to have more rushing yards than any other wide receiver, the team will likely be less incentivized, because of running back depth and his contract cost, to use him as heavily as last season.

Pick published: Aug 11 12:33pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Player Future

Elijah Mitchell Under 950.5 Rushing Yards -120

Won: 279 yards

San Francisco 49ers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Elijah Mitchell has fewer than 951 rushing yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Mitchell is 824 rushing yards, about 126 yards of value.
  • Mitchell, a 6th round rookie, finished with 963 rushing yards last year, leading San Francisco, while playing in 11 games.
  • However, he did miss six games with a variety of injuries (rib, shoulder, knee, concussion) while being used heavily in games he did play, as San Francisco's running back depth was impacted by an early season-ending injury to Raheem Mostert and fellow rookie Trey Sermon struggling.
  • Our projections have Mitchell as the RB26 in PPR formats, similar to his RB24 ranking in NFFC Drafts and RB23 in Underdog Best Ball formats.
  • The biggest issues here are San Francisco's running back usage patterns, and the differing situations from last season for Mitchell.
  • In Kyle Shanahan's five seasons as head coach in San Francisco, the team has had a different leading rusher each season.
  • San Francisco was also really thin at running back last year, and WR Deebo Samuel ended up being the second-leading rusher. The team drafted Tyrion Davis-Price in the 3rd round in this draft, and he projects as part of a running back platoon behind Mitchell.
  • FanDuel's line had opened at 975.5 but has already moved down to 900.5, but this line is currently available at DraftKings.

Pick published: Jul 7 11:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Trey Lance Over 21.5 Passing TDs -110

Lost: 0 TDs

San Francisco 49ers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Trey Lance throws at least 22 rushing touchdowns in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Lance is 23.5 passing touchdowns; he threw five TDs in only 71 pass attempts last year as a rookie, starting two games.
  • Lance was the 3rd overall pick in the NFL Draft, and should be the starter in San Francisco in 2022, though Jimmy Garoppolo's presence (until a trade) might be providing a little value right now as the market prices in that risk. When/if Garoppolo is healthy and traded the totals could rise.
  • Our player similarity and team models like the Lance Over here, as we've seen several recent breakout second-year performances at QB, including both Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson winning MVP.
  • Lance projects as a high-volume rusher and dual threat, but while his passing volume may be lower, he should have a high TD rate given his athletic ability and the talent around him.
  • The 49ers are at 10.0 wins in the betting market, and every starting QB on a team with a win total higher than San Francisco is listed at 31.5 or more pass TDs, so even with a reduced passing volume, there is big upside here on Lance to go over this low total.
  • Lance is also continuing to steam up in the Best Ball fantasy market, and we project momentum as he is officially declared the starter by the preseason, where these totals won't be available as we get closer to the season.

Pick published: Jun 30 6:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Team Future

Falcons To Score Fewest Points In NFL +600

Lost: Denver fewest points

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Falcons score the fewest points in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • In our fantasy football team projections, Atlanta is projected just above Houston and just below Seattle, for 31st in points scored on average.
  • However, we like Atlanta as the best value here based on quarterback and offense factors (and Seattle's projection could change upward if they acquire Baker Mayfield, which is still very possible, so that's why Atlanta is the safer play to be the lowest scoring at value).
  • To hit on a play like this, you are looking for the long-tail bad outcomes, not just the median outcome, and Atlanta profiles as a team with the most potential downward variance based on coach and QB situation.
  • In a review of teams that have finished last in scoring, six of the last eight had rookie QBs make a significant number of starts. Six of the last eight also had head coaches in their first or second year with the team.
  • Atlanta is making a big transition from Matt Ryan, who had started all but one game for the franchise in the last 12 years, and the quarterbacks will be some combination of journeyman Marcus Mariota, who last started a game three seasons ago, or third-round rookie Desmond Ridder.
  • Given that Atlanta has the second-lowest win total in the betting markets, the chances that Ridder sees significant playing time as a rookie are increased, and third-round rookie QBs are fairly high variance in outcome.
  • Atlanta was 26th a year ago in points scored, with Ryan at QB and in head coach Arthur Smith's first season, and starting wide receiver Calvin Ridley is now suspended indefinitely. Other than TE Kyle Pitts, this is a team with a lot of questions on offense.

Pick published: Jun 16 8:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Spread

Broncos -3.0 -115

Push: 31-28

Chargers at Broncos

Sun Jan 8 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Denver wins the game by more than 3 points in Week 18.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean but not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on likely motivations.
  • The Chargers clinch the No. 5 seed right before kickoff of the game, if Baltimore loses to Cincinnati in the early games.
  • The Chargers are likely to not play key players and play QB Justin Herbert at most for a short stretch if they have clinched the No. 5 seed, especially considering that they had several key offensive players miss time this year with injury.

Pick published: Jan 8 10:39am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 470

Moneyline

Browns To Win +128

Lost: 14-28

Browns at Steelers

Sun Jan 8 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cleveland Browns win the game in Week 18.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 18.
  • The Steelers are playing for a wild card spot, though they still need help. The Browns, meanwhile, get to try to spoil their rival's chances and end Steelers' head coach Mike Tomlin's streak of never having a losing season.

  • Pittsburgh has won five of its last six games, but they have all been tight games that came down to the wire. We will play on some of the pressure and other game results having an impact here, as well as a Browns' team that has underperformed but still may be motivated to ruin Pittsburgh's season.

  • Pittsburgh's mental approach could also be impacted by in-game updates from the results in the games that impact them (New England and Miami) if the results aren't going their way in those games late.

Pick published: Jan 8 10:50am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 461

Team Future

Dolphins to Make the Playoffs -175

Won: Dolphins Make Playoffs

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Miami Dolphins make the playoffs at the end of the 2022 season.

Staff notes:

  • Miami is off to a 2-0 start after wins over New England and Baltimore, after completing a big fourth quarter comeback against the Ravens.
  • Our current projections have Miami at 72% to make the playoffs after the 2-0 start.
  • The break-even moneyline on Miami to make the playoffs as of Monday, September 19 is -253 (check our season projections page for the most up-to-date estimate.)
  • Miami has gotten off to an explosive start on offense, and QB Tua Tagoavailoa has thrown for 739 yards in two games.
  • Going back to 2002, 35 of the 50 2-0 teams (70%) to score more than 56 points in the first two games and out-gain opponents by at least 100 total yards made the playoffs (or would have with a 7th spot available).
  • Six of the seven QBs since 2002 to start a year 2-0 while throwing for over 700 passing yards played on teams that reached the playoffs.



     

Pick published: Sep 19 2:35pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Team Future

Ravens AFC North Winner +210

Lost: Bengals win AFC North

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Ravens win the AFC North division in 2022.

Staff notes:

  • These are playable picks based on both our projection on Baltimore to win the division, and the uncertainty around Deshaun Watson's status for the season.
  • Watson was expected to serve a partial suspension this year, after sitting out all of last year in Houston, but escalating reports in papers like the New York Times increase the likelihood that he will be suspended for the entire season.
  • While books aren't offering win totals on Cleveland or wagers on them directly, you can still indirectly make wagers against the latest news on things like the AFC North winner, where Cleveland has been priced in the same range as Baltimore and Cincinnati to win the division. Some books have recently moved (FanDuel is at +175 on Ravens and +230 on Browns now) but these two have not changed in last month.
  • Our projections give the Ravens a 35.4% chance to win the AFC North and those odds should rise if Watson is officially suspended for the year.
  • Baltimore had been one of the best teams in the AFC the previous two seasons, but in 2021 they were ravaged by injuries, which included all of their running backs being injured pre-season, and Lamar Jackson missing the last five games of the season. So there's an injury bounce-back and value with Baltimore.

Pick published: Jun 9 4:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, William Hill.

Team Future

Patriots To Make Playoffs +160

Lost: Missed Playoffs

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Patriots make the 2022-23 NFL Playoffs.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection gives New England a 47% chance to make the playoffs in the AFC, and our break-even moneyline on New England is +113.
  • This line is also a little off-market, as other books have the New England to make playoffs price at closer to +140.
  • The New England Patriots were 2nd in the NFL in point differential a year ago, finishing at +159 points and 10 wins.
  • The market seems down on the Patriots based on the departure of Josh McDaniels and some offensive assistants to the Raiders, and Bill Belichick being coy about his plans on who is calling plays.

Pick published: May 19 5:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Mike Gesicki Under 55.5 Receptions -115

Won: 32 receptions

Miami Dolphins

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Mike Gesicki has fewer than 56 pass receptions during the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Initially, we had Gesicki projected for 54 receptions this year, not significantly different than this offering.
  • However, in the last week, Gesicki has played into the second half of a preseason game and said he was working on blocking more, whereas in the past he had been a receiver.
  • When asked about trade rumors regarding Gesicki, new head coach Mike McDaniels issued a non-denial when he said "I mean, the report is kind of misleading because there are probably just gonna be a lot of names on that report."
  • Given the smoke here, and possibility that Gesicki is used in a different role now that he has a new coach and Tyreek Hill is at WR, as well as the possibility he is moved, there is some value on the under.

Pick published: Aug 25 3:00pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Custom Bet

Texans Player Over 999.5 Receiving Yards -110

Lost: Cooks-699 yards

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Any Houston Texans player has at least 1000 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • The two most likely candidates to win this prop are WR Brandin Cooks and WR Nico Collins.
  • Our projection for Brandin Cooks is 1053 receiving yards, and for Nico Collins is 674 receiving yards.
  • With the news that rookie John Metchie, a second-round pick at WR out of Alabama, will miss the season after being diagnosed with cancer, there is little other target competition on the roster for these two starting wide receivers.
  • Houston is also projected with the lowest win total in the NFL, and they have no established running back, so they are likely to pass at a high rate given they will likely be trailing in several games.
  • Collins' upside as a second-year player who started to emerge as a starter at the end of the season, along with our projection on Cooks already being over the prop number, makes this playable.

Pick published: Aug 4 12:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Ja'Marr Chase At Least One 200-Yard Receiving Game +450

Lost: 0 200-yd games

Cincinnati Bengals

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Ja'Marr Chase has at least one 200-yard receiving game in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • 200-Yard Receiving Games are relatively rare (47 in the last 10 seasons, according to Pro Football Reference) but we still see value on playing these two props in unison.
  • Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase are consensus WR2 and WR3 in fantasy football rankings entering 2022, and at ages 23 and 22, respectively, entering the season, have lots of big play upside.
  • Jefferson has never had a 200-yard game so far in two seasons (181 is his career high) while Chase had two of them as a rookie, including a 266-yard game against the Chiefs.
  • Over the last decade, wide receivers who were ranked in the top 5 in consensus fantasy rankings entering the season have accounted for 14 of the 200-yard receiving games, among 13 different player-seasons (Calvin Johnson did it twice in 2012).
  • That means in the last 10 years, wide receivers with preseason expectations like Jefferson and Chase achieved a 200-yard receiving game in 26% of seasons (13 of 50).
  • If we use that as a baseline expectation, that means there is value at about +300 for each player.
  • By playing them together, you have about a 50% chance of hitting on at least one of them this season.

Pick published: Aug 4 12:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Michael Thomas Over 799.5 Receiving Yards -115

Lost: 171 yards

New Orleans Saints

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Michael Thomas has at least 800 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Michael Thomas is 868 receiving yards, and he is ranked as the 34th WR in our PPR rankings, and is WR30 in the FantasyPros ADP.
  • What makes this Over playable on Thomas specifically at BetMGM is the conditions offered, where they say that the bet is void if the player does not play in Week 1.
  • This prop total is virtually identical to that offered at DraftKings (800.5) but DraftKings wagers are action as long as the player plays at any point during the season.
  • Our projection on Thomas includes a slightly increased risk of missed games, since he is coming off not playing at all in 2021, and played only seven games in 2020.
  • However, if the bet is going to void anyway if he is hurt or unable to play in Week 1, that reduces some of the downside injury risk of Thomas returning after being out a year and a half.
  • If Thomas is healthy enough to play to start the season, that should increase the edge on this Over, and our projected number in that scenario would rise.

Pick published: Jul 21 7:00am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Player Future

Joe Burrow Under 34.5 Passing TDs -120

Lost: 35 TDs

Cincinnati Bengals

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Joe Burrow throws fewer than 35 rushing touchdowns in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Burrow is 29.3 passing touchdowns, and he finished last year with 34 in 16 games played.
  • Burrow led the NFL in yards per attempt last year, and a whopping eight of his touchdown passes in the regular season last year were 50 yards or more. For perspective, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes each had one regular season pass TD of 50 or more yards in 2021.
  • As a result, we see some regression value on the Under here if Burrow just has a few less big plays that end in touchdowns.
  • Also, this pass TD total is high relative to the Bengals' win total in the betting markets (9.5 implied). Burrow is one of seven QBs with a Passing TD total of 34.5 or more, but the Bengals have the lowest expected wins of that group of QBs, and are on average more than 1.0 wins lower than the other six teams.
  • The odds on Under have already been moved to -120 in the few hours that this prop has been live.

Pick published: Jun 30 6:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Jameis Winston Under 27.5 Passing TDs -110

Won: 4 TDs

New Orleans Saints

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Jameis Winston throws fewer than 28 rushing touchdowns in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Winston is 23.1 passing touchdowns; he finished last year with 14 in 7 games played.
  • Winston was a low-volume passer last year before his knee injury, but had an abnormally high TD rate (8.9%) compared to his career average and compared to most QBs with his Yards per Attempt (only 7.3). This number seems inflated by incorporating his most recent TD rate in a limited sample size of games.
  • In a review of the eight other starting quarterbacks since 2002 to have a TD rate of 6.5% or higher on between 150 and 350 pass attempts, they averaged 22.9 touchdowns and a 4.7% TD rate the next season.
  • Winston's career TD rate is 5.0%, and in order to reach 27.5 touchdowns at that rate he would need to stay healthy and get to 550 pass attempts, which would have been 12th most for any quarterback in 2021 (the Saints fell to 30th in pass attempts last season as a team).
  • This total is also a little high compared to the Saints' win total expectation (implied 8.4 in betting markets currently), especially considering the Saints' strong defense in 2021. Similar teams in win totals market like Miami, Arizona, and New England have QB Pass TD props of 25.5, 25.5, and 23.5 respectively.

Pick published: Jun 30 6:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Lamar Jackson Under 3750.5 Passing Yards -110

Won: 2242 yards

Baltimore Ravens

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Lamar Jackson passes for at fewer than 3751 yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Jackson is 3543 Passing Yards, more than 200 yards of value below the prop number.
  • Jackson's career high in passing yards is 3127, in 2019.
  • He was on pace to shatter that in 2021, and was throwing at a high rate per game, until an injury cost him the final five games of the season.
  • However, last year's Ravens team was decimated at running back before the season began. Despite missing games, Jackson finished tied for the most rushing attempts, and none of the top four running backs in attempts in 2021 are even on the roster now.
  • Jackson also saw his INT rate rise dramatically and his efficiency drop with the increased pass volume, and that, along with the return of running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, has us projecting a return to the more balanced pass-run ratio the Ravens have had in previous years with Jackson at QB.
  • As a result, there is good Under value here, both with his risk of injury as a running quarterback, and also that the team will seek to return to what worked more effectively in terms of pass volume.

Pick published: Jun 30 6:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Tom Brady Under 4699.5 Passing Yards -110

Won: 4694 yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Tom Brady passes for at fewer than 4700 yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • This player prop pick is made in conjunction with our Tampa Bay team Under pick, as even though there are scenarios where one pick wins and the other loses, the two picks are correlated.
  • Tom Brady led the NFL in pass attempts and passing yards a year ago, setting a career-high in both categories in the 17-game season at age 44.
  • However, with the recent retirement announcement by TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Chris Godwin still rehabbing from his December ACL injury, and WR Antonio Brown being cut by the Bucs, three of the four leading receivers from last year's team are unlikely to be playing early in the season.
  • That means lots of turnover for Tom Brady and his receivers, and when you add in Brady's own retirement then un-retirement, and the abrupt coaching change in Tampa, there is lots of uncertainty entering the season in Tampa Bay.
  • FanDuel also just released several NFL QB prop lines, and their offered line on Brady is 4500.5 passing yards, so you are getting some line value here by grabbing this DraftKings line while it is still up.
  • Our current projected passing yards for Brady is 4569 yards, which could be adjusted further down if it's confirmed that Godwin will be inactive to start the season.

Pick published: Jun 23 3:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Pat Freiermuth Under 60.5 Receptions -120

Lost: 63 receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Pat Freiermuth has fewer than 61 pass receptions during the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection on Freiermuth is for 53 receptions this season.
  • Last year, Freiermuth had exactly 60 receptions and 497 receiving yards (for a paltry 8.3 yards per catch) while playing with QB Ben Roethlisberger.
  • We see value on the Under this year, though, for a variety of reasons.
  • Pittsburgh was 4th in the NFL in pass attempts last year with Roethlisberger, but is switching to a combination of Mitch Trubisky and rookie Kenny Pickett, and should see a decrease in passing volume.
  • Further, in the last week, we've seen plenty of buzz about the emergence of 2nd-round rookie George Pickens, who put up several highlight catches in the first preseason game with the starters.
  • While Pickens' props are not currently available at DK, this is a correlated bet that his emergence creates even more target competition in the offense, and impacts Freiermuth's upside in receptions.
  • Last year, Freiermuth had only 7 catches in 3 games where WRs Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Juju Smith-Schuster played, averaged 4.0 in games where one was out, and had 5 catches on a season-high 9 targets in the one game where only Diontae Johnson was active.
  • With three quality receivers in Johnson, Claypool, and now Pickens to start the year, that should mean reduced opportunity for Freiermuth.
  • We also see value on the Freiermuth receiving yards Under (555.5 yards) but there is a better possibility he could see an uptick in yards per catch with different passers compared to last season.

Pick published: Aug 11 1:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Diontae Johnson Under 1000.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 882 yards

Pittsburgh Steelers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Diontae Johnson has fewer than 1001 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Johnson is 889 receiving yards, with 111.5 yards of value.
  • Pittsburgh has ranked 4th and 1st the last two seasons in total pass attempts, with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback.
  • We project a shift in passing volume for Pittsburgh transitioning to either Mitch Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett at QB, and have the team projected for more than 100 fewer pass attempts than 2021.
  • Johnson has been the biggest beneficiary of that high volume passing, but the potential for a passing volume decrease and a shift in his usage provides value on this Under.

Pick published: Jul 14 1:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Najee Harris Under 1199.5 Rushing Yards -130

Won: 1038 yards

Pittsburgh Steelers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Najee Harris has fewer than 1200 rushing yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Harris finished his rookie season with exactly 1,200 rushing yards in 17 games played.
  • This line, though, is a little high based on the risk of injury and uncertainty with the Pittsburgh offense with a QB change.
  • The odds on Under have moved from -115 to -130 since this prop was opened, though the total has stayed the same so far.
  • Harris is 5th in our projected rushing yards with 1,099 rushing yards and 4th in total yards from scrimmage among running backs, which is in line with the fantasy market average draft position data. He?s also 5th in odds to win the rushing title at several sports books, so we are on market their in our relative projection.
  • Harris? most similar players averaged 14.1 games played in the next season.
  • We do project positive regression in Harris' Yards Per Carry (3.9 last year), but that is offset by accounting for the injury risk.
  • This is a playable pick because even if he is healthy for all 17 games, the Under could still hit, and if Harris misses games it is a likely winner.

Pick published: May 26 1:00pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Player Future

Justin Fields Under 3399.5 Passing Yards +100

Won: 2242 yards

Chicago Bears

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Justin Fields passes for at fewer than 3400 yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing yard projection for Justin Fields is 3,182 yards.
  • Fields had a high 11% sack rate as a rookie, and ran the ball over six times a game, while averaging 180 passing yards in 10 starts as a rookie.
  • Fields projects as a high volume rushing quarterback and a low-volume passer in Chicago's offense, particularly considering the lack of passing weapons around him.
  • Add in some slight risk that Fields is not the starter all year on a bad team, or that he gets injured as a rushing quarterback, and the Under is playable, particularly with even odds.

Pick published: May 26 1:00pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Player Future

Breece Hall Over 4.5 Rushing TDs -135

Lost: 4 rush TDs

New York Jets

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Breece Hall scores at least 5 rushing touchdowns in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our current projection for Hall is for an average of 6.8 rushing touchdowns in 2022, and we have him ranked as the 15th RB in PPR formats.
  • Hall was the 36th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and the first running back selected.
  • In preliminary ADP data, Hall is going as RB18 in NFFC high stakes drafts and RB20 in Underdog Fantasy Best Ball drafts.
  • We have ADP (Average Draft Position) data going back to 2010, and the 17 prior rookie running backs to have an ADP between 11 and 24 (average: RB17) in that span went Over 4.5 rushing TDs on 11 occasions (64.7%) with an average of 6.1 rushing touchdowns scored.
  • The last five rookies with a similar ADP went over 4.5 rush TDs (Najee Harris, David Montgomery, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, and Royce Freeman).
  • Hall is projected as the lead back in New York ahead of Michael Carter, but even if he is in a committee situation, the 6'1", 220 lb. Hall projects as the goal line back of the duo, compared to the much smaller Carter, who is more of a receiving back.

Pick published: May 13 11:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Custom Bet

Any 2021 4th Place Team To Win Division -200

Won: Jaguars win AFC South

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: At least one team that finished 4th (last) in their division in 2021 wins their division in 2022. That's the Jets, Broncos, Ravens, Jaguars, Giants, Seahawks, Lions, or Panthers.

Staff notes:

  • Line currently available at DraftKings Sportsbook under "Team Specials" and the "mixed" tab, all the way at the bottom of the menu.
  • Based on our odds for each of these teams to win its division, our estimate is that there is a 69.5% chance that at least one of these teams wins its division.
  • The break-even odds needed to make this playable are 66.7%.

Pick published: Jul 21 7:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Team Future

Jaguars To Win AFC South +350

Won: Jaguars win division

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South in 2022.

Staff notes:

  • Jacksonville won against the Indianapolis Colts 24-0 in Week 2 to move to 1-1;
  • While the Tennessee-Buffalo game result is still pending, the Jaguars are the only team so far in the AFC South with a win, and that was in division against the preseason favorite.
  • This specific payout odds recommendation is based on the current line on Monday pre-Titans result, so check our Season Predictions page to see the updated odds if you are checking after the Monday night result.
  • As of now, we project Jacksonville with a 27% chance of winning the AFC South, a division where we currently do not project any team for a winning record. The break-even moneyline for the Jags to win the South is +272.
  • Jacksonville has a new coach (with a history of success) and a second-year QB who was drafted 1st overall in Trevor Lawrence, so after seeing he and the team get off to a much better start in 2022, there is some value on playing on this young Jags team based on how others have started.

Pick published: Sep 19 2:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Team Future

Titans to Win AFC South -115

Lost: Jaguars win division

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Tennessee Titans win the AFC South.

Staff notes:

  • This is an off-market, lower odds line compared to other books. (DraftKings, for example, is at -160).
  • Our projection is a 64% chance that the Titans win the AFC South after sweeping the Colts on Sunday.
  • Further, the Colts announced that they were starting Sam Ehlinger instead of Matt Ryan at QB for the rest of the year.

Pick published: Oct 24 5:43pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Player Future

Travis Etienne Jr. Over 319.5 Receiving Yards -112

Lost: 316 yards

Jacksonville Jaguars

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Travis Etienne Jr. has at least 320 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Etienne is 389 receiving yards, with 70 yards of value.
  • Etienne is currently steaming up in average draft position value in fantasy markets, as he is up to RB16 in Underdog Best Ball and he has been RB17 in NFFC drafts over the last month.
  • Some of that movement is related to no setbacks reported for Etienne, who missed all of 2021 with a foot injury after being drafted in the first round, and some is related to the market realization that James Robinson will not be 100 per cent after a late December Achilles tear, and could be limited for the first half of the season.
  • Etienne also projects as an all-purpose receiving back in the NFL, so even if he gets platoon duties, he will likely still play a prominent receiving role. Etienne had 588 receiving yards his last year at Clemson, in 12 games.
  • We may adjust our projection upward on Etienne to match further market or injury news, but even before that, Etienne is a value at this price.

Pick published: Jul 14 1:00pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Player Future

Treylon Burks Under 869.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 444 yards

Tennessee Titans

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Treylon Burks has fewer than 870 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our current projection for Burks is for an average of 753 receiving yards in 2022, and we have him ranked as the 45th WR in PPR formats.
  • Burks was drafted 18th overall by the Tennessee Titans, the fifth wide receiver selected.
  • Burks' projection is based on his projected role, market data on where Burks is going in early drafts, and historical rookie comparisons.
  • He will likely fill the top wide receiver role early on for Tennessee, after the team traded A.J. Brown, at least while veteran Robert Woods works back from a knee injury early in the year.
  • However, Burks' historical comps aren't all that impressive, and he rated below average athletically among taller wide receivers (6'1" or taller) since 2011 in several important categories, including 40-yard time, vertical jump, and three-cone time.
  • Of the most similar players to Burks in the last decade by draft position, age, height/weight, and Combine/athletic testing data, only two of the 10 had more than 869 receiving yards (pro-rated to 17 games).
  • The five most similar rookies to Burks in this analysis are Laquon Treadwell, N'Keal Harry, Michael Floyd, Brian Quick, and DeAndre Hopkins. Three of those five were major busts who produced less than 200 receiving yards as rookies.

Pick published: May 13 11:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Ryan Tannehill Under 3700.5 Passing Yards -110

Won: 2536 yards

Tennessee Titans

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Ryan Tannehill passes for at fewer than 3701 yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Tannehill is 3464 Passing Yards, and the 236.5 yards of value is the largest of any of the 27 released QB Passing Yard props on DraftKings.
  • Tannehill has been a low volume passer but efficient in Tennessee, finishing with 3734 and 3819 passing yards the last two years while playing virtually every snap and accounting for 99.2% of all Titans pass attempts the last two seasons. Logan Woodside's three pass attempts in 2020 are the only QB throws not by Tannehill over that span.
  • We like the Under value here for several reasons, starting with star WR A.J. Brown being traded to Philadelphia and the team having lots of turnover in the receiving corp.
  • The Titans also drafted QB Malik Willis in the third round, and while Willis is raw and not likely to supplant Tannehill as the starter without an injury, Willis being used in sub-packages and getting some playing time is very possible, especially late in the year.
  • Tannehill barely cleared this total each of the last two years while playing nearly every snap, and when you add injury risk, personnel changes, and the addition of Willis, there are a lot of outs to going Under on this total.

Pick published: Jun 30 6:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Future

Derek Carr Over 4300.5 Passing Yards -112

Lost: 3522 yards

Las Vegas Raiders

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Derek Carr passes for at least 4301 yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • While we generally tend to lean Under on season prop totals (because of injury risk and other forms of negative variance that the public underrates), this one offers too much value compared to our passing projections.
  • We are currently projecting Carr for 4,664 passing yards in 2022, including the risk of injury. We have him projected for 95% of the pass attempts with Las Vegas this year, a number in line with the median for pocket passers like Carr who are established starters.
  • Our overall fantasy rank on Carr (QB14) based on his projected stats is in line with the fantasy market, as he is QB14 on Underdog Fantasy in average draft position, and QB13 in FantasyPros Expert Consensus rankings.
  • This line has also already moved from 4250.5 to 4300.5 since opening a couple of days ago.
  • Carr is positioned to be among the league leaders in passing yards, as he set a career-high in attempts at age 30 a year ago, and the team has now added star WR Davante Adams to go with TE Darren Waller (missed six games last season) and slot WR Hunter Renfrow.
  • Las Vegas is also projected with a win total that puts them around .500, but plays in a tough AFC West with lots of good offenses, where they will need to be pass-heavy to compete.
  • New head coach Josh McDaniels has coordinated a couple of low-volume passing offenses the last two years, but that is attributable to the Patriots going from Tom Brady to Cam Newton at quarterback, and then to a rookie in Mac Jones. He only has two other years (out of 14 as a head coach or coordinator) where his teams were outside the top 12 in pass volume, and those involved starting QB suspensions or injuries.
  • Along with the addition of Adams, reports on RB Josh Jacobs' likely diminished role with the team also suggest this could be a pass-focused offense in 2022. (Jacobs has averaged only 5.5 yards per target as a receiver for his career.)

Pick published: Jun 23 3:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Player Future

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 6.5 Rushing TDs -135

Won: 3 rushing TDs

Kansas City Chiefs

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Clyde Edwards-Helaire scores fewer than 7 rushing touchdowns in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Edwards-Helaire rushing TDs is 3.7 in 2022.
  • Edwards-Helaire has not been featured near the goal line in his first two years, with four TDs in each season, and we are banking on that role not changing significantly in 2022.
  • Edwards-Helaire had 44% of the running back rushing attempts the last two seasons in Kansas City, but only 13 of 40 attempts (33%) inside the opponent 5-yard line, and only 10 of 60 attempts (17%) in short-yardage situations (3rd/4th down with 2 or less to go).
  • Darrel Williams is now gone to Arizona, but the team signed Ronald Jones from Tampa Bay (17 rush TDs in last three years) and re-signed veteran Jerick McKinnon at running back.
  • As an aside, this is the biggest individual edge at rush TD, but the DraftKings lines on rush TDs are generally high on most running backs and there is systemic value on the Under here.

Pick published: Jul 7 11:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Patrick Mahomes Over 39.5 Passing Attempts -114

Lost: 26 attempts

Chiefs at Raiders

Sat Jan 7 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Patrick Mahomes attempts more than 39 passes in Week 18.

Staff notes:

  • The Kansas City Chiefs are playing to clinch the No. 1 seed and get a bye in the AFC Playoffs against the Raiders, and Mahomes should be a big part of the game plan anyway.
  • Mahomes also has an outside chance of setting the NFL single-season passing record, needing 430 yards to pass Peyton Manning's 2013 mark. 
  • Mahomes is also playing to clinch the NFL MVP award with a big final week performance, as he is currently the heavy favorite.
  • As a result of all that, we expect Kansas City to be very pass heavy early, especially given the matchup, and throw at a rate even higher than his median pass attempts per game (39).
  • The Raiders are also 28th in net yards per pass allowed, 29th in total pass yards allowed, and 30th in interceptions, with only 6 all year.

Pick published: Jan 7 11:44am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

Raiders To Make Playoffs +175

Lost: Eliminated in Week 17

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Raiders make the 2022-23 NFL Playoffs.

Staff notes:

  • Based on our odds, the break-even for Las Vegas to make the playoffs is +154.
  • The Raiders made the playoffs last year at 10-7, despite a negative point differential.
  • Las Vegas overcame several offensive issues and the mid-season firing of head coach Jon Gruden, and has majorly upgraded the receiving weapons in new head coach Josh McDaniels' first year.
  • The team acquired All-Pro WR Davante Adams from Green Bay, and star tight end Darren Waller missed six games last year (but still finished as the second-leading receiver).
  • The Raiders are in the toughest division in the NFL entering the season, and are projected in fourth place, but have enough potential in a crowded AFC to provide value at this line.

Pick published: Aug 11 12:34pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Team Future

Chargers Under 9.5 Season Wins +100

Lost: 10 wins as of Week 17

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Los Angeles Chargers win fewer than 10 games in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections show value on both this win total Under as well as the Chargers to miss playoffs prop at DraftKings (+120 to miss). 
  • This is the higher value play, though, because of the risk the Chargers are more likely to make the playoffs while going 9-8, rather than miss at 10-7.
  • Our win total projection for the Chargers is 8.6 wins following their loss to Seattle to drop to 4-3. 
  • Based on the win distributions in our simulations, there is a 68.5% chance the Chargers finish with 9 or fewer wins. 
  • The upcoming schedule for the Chargers is a difficult one, and we project 6 of their 10 upcoming opponents with a current higher power rating than the Chargers, before adjusting for home field.
  • Los Angeles has also suffered several key injuries, including DE Joey Bosa, OT Rashawn Slater and CB J.C. Jackson. WR Keenan Allen is trying to come back from an injury, and WR Mike Williams just suffered a high ankle sprain that could keep him out multiple games.
     

Pick published: Oct 24 5:22pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Over/Under

Vikings at Packers Under 48.5 -118

Lost: 58 points

Sun Jan 1 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota and Green Bay combine for 48 or fewer points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under for Week 17.
  • The Vikings and Packers face off in a key game for the Packers' playoff hopes while Minnesota is still playing for playoff positioning in the NFC.
  • Minnesota games have been wild of late, with lots of late scoring and game environments that result in shootouts.
  • But the points per play and yards per point profiles of these two teams suggest their is value on the Under in this divisional matchup.
  • Both teams have also been creating turnovers at a high rate recently, another factor.
  • Green Bay's defense has allowed only 43 total first downs in their last three games.
  • Green Bay's offense has outperformed their points scored based on yardage profile in the last three games, ranking 7th in yards per point in the last 3, compared to 22nd for the year.

Pick published: Jan 1 9:21am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 128

Spread

Rams +6.5 -110

Lost: 10-31

Rams at Chargers

Sun Jan 1 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Rams win the game or lose by fewer than 7 points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 17.
  • The Rams have turned around their running game, as they ranked near the bottom of the NFL at mid-season, but have had over 110 rushing yards in four of the last six games. RB Cam Akers, who struggled early in the year coming back from an Achilles injury and was inactivated for a stretch, has put together the two best games since his injury.
  • Akers gets a Chargers team that struggles to stop the run (5.3 yards per carry allowed).
  • The Chargers also just clinched a wildcard spot, and their opportunity to significantly improve their playoff positioning is not high as they are likely going to be in the 5th or 6th slot. So the motivation edge could belong to the team that is rejuvenating what looked like a lost season, and coming off a 51-14 shellacking of Denver.
  • This game is technically a road game for the Rams but is played in their home stadium.

Pick published: Jan 1 9:25am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 129

Spread

Eagles -6.5 -110

Lost: 10-20

Saints at Eagles

Sun Jan 1 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Philadelphia wins the game by more than 6 points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model pick for Week 17 in the NFL.
  • The Eagles are playing to clinch the NFC East and the conference No. 1 overall seed in this game.
  • The team hasn't ruled out QB Jalen Hurts from playing in Week 17 after missing the last game against Dallas.
  • Some of the factors our models are picking up are the extreme difference in rushing production, as the Saints have struggled to run the ball over the last 7 games, and to get first downs via rush, while the Eagles are a dominant running team.

Pick published: Dec 27 10:01am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 110

Spread

Colts +5.5 -110

Lost: 10-38

Colts at Giants

Sun Jan 1 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Indianapolis wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick in Week 17.
  • The Giants are not a good passing team, and while they have thrived in an underdog role this year, this is the first time they have been favored since a November home loss to Detroit six games ago.
  • Some of the factors the models are picking up include the Giants poor rush defense in the last seven games, compared to the Colts having good rush defense numbers, and the Colts' extreme turnover rate.

Pick published: Jan 1 8:58am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 121

Spread

Panthers +3.5 -110

Lost: 24-30

Panthers at Buccaneers

Sun Jan 1 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick but is a pick based on team trends.
  • After last week's win over Detroit, the Panthers are now 5-5 SU and 7-3 ATS with Steve Wilks as interim coach. That includes a big upset of Tampa Bay back in Week 7, when they held the Bucs to three total points.
  • Tampa Bay's offense has struggled all year, and rank 28th in points in points scored, and following a 2-0 start, they are 5-8 SU and an incredible 1-11-1 ATS. The last time the Bucs scored more than 23 points was back in a Week 4 loss to Kansas City; the last time they crossed 400 total yards was in Germany against Seattle in early November.
  • Carolina has the better running game by a mile (Tampa Bay still ranks last in yards and yards per carry), and the pass defenses for both teams are very good, especially down the stretch for Carolina. Meanwhile, Carolina QB Sam Darnold is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt in his four starts, while the Bucs' Tom Brady is plodding along at 6.2 yards per attempt this year.

Pick published: Jan 1 9:07am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 103

Spread

Cowboys -10.0 -110

Won: 27-13

Cowboys at Titans

Thu Dec 29 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Dallas Cowboys win the game by more than 10 points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean but not a playable model pick, but is a staff pick based on likely team motivations and participation.
  • The Tennessee Titans cannot improve or diminish their playoff chances, which come down to a Week 18 matchup with Jacksonville for the AFC South title.
  • Titans RB Derrick Henry did not practice yesterday, and with the game on a short week, and having no impact on their chances, he is at high risk of missing game.
  • There's also a good chance that some other players "rest" for the Week 18 game.
  • The Titans have lost and failed to cover in five straight games.
  • Rookie QB Malik Willis, who started the last game for an injured Ryan Tannehill, has been very bad, completing just over 50% of his passes, for 4.5 yards per attempt, and has yet to throw a touchdown pass in three starts.

Pick published: Dec 27 9:39am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 101

Team Future

Cowboys To Miss Playoffs +240

Lost: Playoffs Clinched

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Cowboys make the 2022-23 NFL Playoffs.

Staff notes:

  • Based on our preseason odds, the break-even for Dallas to miss the playoffs is +192.
  • The Eagles have improved this offseason with the addition of star WR A.J. Brown, and we now project them with basically the same chance to win the NFC East as the Cowboys.
  • Dallas, meanwhile, is facing some concerns at wide receiver. The team let veteran WR Amari Cooper go to Cleveland this offseason, and injuries have impacted the receiving position. Michael Gallup had a knee injury last year and is not expected to start the season active.
  • The team signed James Washington from Pittsburgh, but he fractured his foot at the start of camp.
  • As of right now, the starting depth chart for Week 1 is CeeDee Lamb, followed by third-round rookie Jalen Tolbert, and Noah Brown, who had a career-high 184 receiving yards last season.
  • These offensive concerns create more variability in how Dallas starts the season.
  • This line is also a bit off-market, as most books have Dallas priced closer to +200 to miss the playoffs.

Pick published: Aug 11 12:35pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Player Future

Tee Higgins Over 975.5 Receiving Yards -120

Won: 1022 yards as of Week 16

Cincinnati Bengals

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Tee Higgins has at least 976 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • You can also get Higgins at FanDuel at 1000.5 Receiving Yards -110, a very similar play in terms of value.
  • Our projection for Higgins is 1136 receiving yards, about 160 yards of value.
  • Higgins finished with 1091 yards last year while missing three games in the regular season.
  • The 23-year-old Higgins is 12th in our PPR rankings, similar to his position in Underdog Fantasy drafts where he is the 10th WR taken on average.
  • Higgins has the 15th highest receiving yard total on DraftKings right now, behind several wide receivers going behind him in fantasy drafts.

Pick published: Jul 7 11:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Team Future

Panthers Over 5.5 Wins -125

Won: 6 wins as of Week 16

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Panthers win at least 6 games in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • The FanDuel line is a little under market, as most books have this at Carolina 6.0 wins with -110 on both sides, and it is still playable at the latter line as well if you cannot obtain the 5.5.
  • Our projection for the Panthers is 6.5 wins in 2022.
  • Carolina, like New York, was a team that had quarterback injury issues and poor backup QB play that impacted their season.
  • The Panthers got off to a 3-0 start a year ago, but key injuries derailed the team and it went into a major slide, and only four players started every game a year ago.
  • The biggest injuries were 1st round pick CB Jaycee Horn tearing his Achilles in Week 3, and star running back Christian McCaffrey going down with another injury the same week.
  • The defense was among the league leaders in yards and sacks at the time of Horn's injury, and went into a slide after the injury.
  • Sam Darnold averaged 7.6 yards per attempt in four games played with Christian McCaffrey, and 5.5 yards per attempt in all other starts.
  • Our win totals research showed that teams with returning starting quarterbacks that missed five or more starts the previous year provide value against win totals, and that was before Dallas (Dak returning) and Cincinnati (Burrow returning) were two of the biggest win total value plays of 2021.

Pick published: May 13 11:00am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Over/Under

Seahawks at Chiefs Under 49.5 -110

Won: 34 points

Sat Dec 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Seattle and Kansas City combine for fewer than 50 points in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model over/under pick for Week 16.
  • Seattle will also be without WR Tyler Lockett, and it will be the first game all year wher Seattle will be without one of its top two WRs Lockett or Metcalf, and it is not a deep receiving corp (Marquise Goodwin as the WR3 has 387 yards total).
  • Kansas City has committed 5 turnovers in the last two weeks that have impacted opponent scoring. As a result, the Chiefs have given up 52 points, but the last two opponents have only averaged 270 total yards.

Pick published: Dec 23 3:37pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 466

Over/Under

Bills at Bears Over 50.0 +299

Lost: 48 points

Sat Dec 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Buffalo and Chicago combine for more than 50 points in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is an alternate game line available at + odds at DraftKings.
  • Our models have a playable Over on the 40.0 market line for this game.
  • That Over/Under has been driven down by the weather concerns for Chicago, where cold and winds could impact the game, and the current forecast is for the wind chill to be below zero at game time.
  • However, our research into the coldest games shows the potential for some outlier value on alternate lines in the coldest wind chill games.
  • Since 2002, there have been 26 games played at a wind chill of +2 degrees Fahrenheit or lower, and the Over and Under are even in those games (so the market is aware of weather impacts and they are likely priced in for the median result).
  • However, 8 of the 26 went Over by 16 or more points (31%) so when games have gone Over, there has been a tendency for them to show higher variance and go Over by a larger amount in these weather games.
  • Chicago games had gone Over the total in seven straight games before last week's Under against Philadelphia, and the defense has allowed at least 25 points in seven straight games.
  • Both teams have mobile running quarterbacks who can make plays with their feet, and can still generate offense even at lower passing volume. 
  • So while it's a longer shot play, we think there is some value in these teams having some outlier qualities that could lead to scoring in these conditions.
  • We are specifically playing the alternate over below the key number of 51 since that is the most common point total of any single score. 

Pick published: Dec 23 3:52pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 461

Over/Under

Bengals at Patriots Over 41.5 -110

Lost: 40 points

Sat Dec 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati and New England combine for more than 41 points in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model playable Over/Unders for Week 16.
  • The weather report for Foxboro has improved, with high winds from overnight Friday expected to slow down throughout the day on Saturday, and we've seen the market start to rebound back upward.
  • The Patriots' run game has started to get healthy again, and just had over 200 yards against the Raiders, and they have scored 24 or more in three of the last four games.
  • The Patriots D has feasted on bad quarterbacks, but against some of the top QBs like Joe Burrow has given up points and yards. Over the last eight games, they have given up 30 points per game in games against Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Josh Allen, and Kirk Cousins, and 9 points per game in games against Zach Wilson (2x), Colt McCoy, and Sam Ehrlinger.

Pick published: Dec 23 1:12pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 459

Spread

Panthers +2.5 +100

Won: 37-23

Lions at Panthers

Sat Dec 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on pick popularity data and team trends.
  • Detroit is the most popular spread pick in our public pool pick data at -2.5 (80% popularity). Over the last five weeks, teams with 75% or higher popularity in spread pools in our data, where the line does not move in that teams favor from the mid-week line, are 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS.
  • The Panthers pass defense has been playing at a high level since Steve Wilks took over as interim coach, and are 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight games. 
  • Detroit has turned their season around by winning 6 of 7, but there are a few indicators that show some negative regression potential. They've been outgained by 142 yards over that span, but have benefited from a +9 turnover differential, and have been converting third downs at a high rate, by passing rather than rushing.
  • This is the first time Detroit has been a road favorite since playing at Carolina in 2020. 

 

Pick published: Dec 23 3:20pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 458

Player Prop

Brock Purdy Under 216.5 Passing Yards -114

Lost: 234 yards

Commanders at 49ers

Sat Dec 24 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Brock Purdy passes for fewer than 217 yards in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • Based on the 37.5 point total and the 7-point spread, our passing projection for this game is about 22 yards below the offered prop line.
  • San Francisco's defense has given up only 11.0 points per game over the last seven games, which leads to lower passing volume in the second half when playing with the lead.
  • After coming off the bench and throwing 37 times, Purdy has 21 and 26 pass attempts in his two starts so far, for 402 total passing yards in those starts. He is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt.
  • Unless the Washington team has an offensive explosion, this feels like another low-volume passing game for the rookie, and he will have to have really high pass efficiency to get over this total.

Pick published: Dec 23 3:29pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

Giants Over 7.0 Wins +105

Won: 8 wins as of Week 15.

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Giants win at least 8 games in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our 2022 regular season projection for the Giants is 7.6 wins.
  • New York's results from last season are dragged down by atrocious play from backup quarterbacks after Daniel Jones was injured, as the team went 0-6 and scored fewer than 10 points a game to end the season.
  • The team average Yards per Attempt was 5.8 overall, but Jones averaged 6.7 yards per attempt.
  • The Giants also had several injuries in the receiving corp that impacted the offense, and Saquon Barkley was not as effective in his first year returning from a knee injury.
  • Finally, while this may be hard to quantify, former coach Joe Judge was a terrible leader, and new head coach Brian Daboll is likely a massive upgrade in both offensive philosophy and overall temperament/leadership.
  • Add all those factors and this is a team that should be better than what the raw numbers from a year ago look like, and could at least bounce back toward respectability.

Pick published: May 13 11:00am ET, available at that time at William Hill.

Spread

Giants +4.5 -110

Won: 20-12

Giants at Commanders

Sun Dec 18 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: New York Giants win the game or lose by fewer than 5 points in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 15.
  • Before last season, we wrote about the lack of home field advantage in NFC East division games. Going back to 2002, home teams had won around 51% of home games, and covered the spread less than 46% of the time. Specific to the Giants-Commanders rivalry, the home team since 2002 is 21-19-1 SU and 18-23 ATS.
  • The teams may look like they are going in opposite directions, but thats exaggerated by schedule (the Giants have been handled by the Cowboys and Eagles in the last four games) and close game luck.
  • Washington also has extreme fumble luck in their recent run. A lot of their 6-1-1 stretch can be summed up with better turnover luck, and going 4-1-1 in close games.

Pick published: Dec 15 11:41am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 303

Team Future

Steelers Over 5.5 Season Wins +125

Won: 6 wins as of Week 15

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh wins more than 5 games in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have started 1-3, and our current automated projection for PIttsburgh is 5.9 wins, already showing some value on the Steelers.
  • In addtion, the team just benched QB Mitch Trubisky at halftime of the loss to the Jets, and put first-round rookie Kenny Pickett in the game. While they haven't announced him as the starter for this week, we anticipate he will be.
  • Trubisky was averaging only 5.6 yards per attempt, and Pittsburgh's season-high in passing yards was 204 with him as starter. 
  • PIckett already, in one half, showed the ability to push the ball down the field and averaged 9.2 yards per attempt in his first half playing. He did throw three picks but one was on the final desperation play, and two others were deflected.
  • In addition, the latest news is that T.J. Watt is hoping to return by Week 6, and he is a major difference maker. 
  • With the switch to Pickett opening up the offense more, the potential return of Watt, and head coach Mike Tomlin's history of success, we think there is some value in Pittsburgh being much better in the second half of the season and reaching this low total.

Pick published: Oct 4 10:46am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Team Future

Lions Under 6.0 Season Wins -115

Lost: 7 wins as of Week 15

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Detroit Lions win fewer than 6 games during the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Detroit fell to 1-5 after Sunday's loss to Dallas, and our projection is for Detroit to win 4.8 games this year.
  • Based on our win distribution for Detroit, there is a 66.1% chance of 5 or fewer wins, and another 16.1% chance of exactly 6 wins and a push.
  • With this line at DraftKings set at 6.0 instead of 5.5, it basically means that Detroit has to have a winning record over the final 11 games to result in a loss on the Under.
  • Detroit's offense should see some improvement when they get healthier, as RB D'Andre Swift has missed multiple games, as has WR Amon-Ra St. Brown.
  • However, the defense is the worst in the NFL, ranking dead last in points allowed per game, yards per game, and net yards per pass allowed.

Pick published: Oct 24 5:31pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Over/Under

Bengals at Buccaneers Over 46.5 -110

Won: 57 points

Sun Dec 18 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati and Tampa Bay combine for more than 46 points in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under pick for Week 15.
  • In addition, most of the injury news has gone against both defenses as we approach the game.
  • Cincinnati will be thin in the secondary, as CB Mike Hilton is out and CB Jalen Davis is doubtful, and they will also be missing starting DE Trey Hendrickson.
  • Tampa Bay has several defensive players who are questionable, and will be without DT Vita Vea, DE Carl Nassib, CB Jamel Dean. 

Pick published: Dec 18 11:00am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 327

Player Prop

Desmond Ridder Over 0.5 interceptions -138

Lost: 0 Interceptions

Falcons at Saints

Sun Dec 18 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Desmond Ridder throws at least one interception in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • Desmond Ridder is making his first career start for Atlanta, after being drafted in the 3rd round of this year's NFL Draft.
  • Going back to 2010, 16 rookies made their first start in Week 10 or later, who were drafted outside the first two rounds. Eleven of them threw at least one interception, and six of them threw multiple interceptions in their debut.

Pick published: Dec 18 10:51am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Spread

Colts +3.5 -110

Won: 36-39

Colts at Vikings

Sat Dec 17 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Indianapolis wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model spread pick but is a pick based on team trends and public popularity.
  • Minnesota is the second-most popular spread pick all season, according to our pool pick data, at 83% on the opening Minnesota -4.5 line.
  • So far this year, when a team has had 75%+ spread popularity according to our public pick pool data, and the point spread line has still moved against them, they are 5-10 ATS and only 7-8 SU (all as favorites).
  • Minnesota has now been outscored.(by 1 point) on the year despite having a 10-3 record, and ranks dead last in yards allowed. They have allowed 800 more yards than they have gained so far this year, so that their points profile is actually better than the underlying play.
  • Minnesota has allowed five straight opponents to have over 400 total yards and over 300 net passing yards.
  • While the Colts' offense hasn't been great, it's been dependent on schedule, where they played a lot of tough defenses. The four best yardage games have come against teams ranking in the bottom 10 overall in defensive yards allowed, and Matt Ryan and the passing game should have way more opportunities than normal.

Pick published: Dec 16 1:00pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 307

Over/Under

49ers at Seahawks Under 43.0 -110

Won: 34 points

Thu Dec 15 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Francisco and Seattle combine for fewer than 42 points in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Under pick according to our models. 
  • San Francisco's defense has been dominant, not allowing more than 17 points in the last six games played, and averaging 10.7 points allowed.
  • Recent 49ers games have gone over because of their offense, but injuries could impact some of that.
  • QB Brock Purdy, who replaced the injured Jimmy Garoppolo, is questionable for tonight with an oblique strain, and didn't finish Sunday's game. Recently signed Josh Johnson could be the fourth QB to start for SF this year.
  • Star WR and all-around weapon Deebo Samuel also suffered an injury and is out.
  • Seattle should have RB Kenneth Walker back, but SF has been dominant against the rush, ranking 1st in yards per carry and rush yards allowed, and has been even better over the last six against the run. 

Pick published: Dec 15 10:37am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 302

Player Future

Justin Jefferson At Least One 200-Yard Receiving Game +550

Won: 223 yards in Week 14

Minnesota Vikings

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Justin Jefferson has at least one 200-yard receiving game in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • 200-Yard Receiving Games are relatively rare (47 in the last 10 seasons, according to Pro Football Reference) but we still see value on playing these two props in unison.
  • Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase are consensus WR2 and WR3 in fantasy football rankings entering 2022, and at ages 23 and 22, respectively, entering the season, have lots of big play upside.
  • Jefferson has never had a 200-yard game so far in two seasons (181 is his career high) while Chase had two of them as a rookie, including a 266-yard game against the Chiefs.
  • Over the last decade, wide receivers who were ranked in the top 5 in consensus fantasy rankings entering the season have accounted for 14 of the 200-yard receiving games, among 13 different player-seasons (Calvin Johnson did it twice in 2012).
  • That means in the last 10 years, wide receivers with preseason expectations like Jefferson and Chase achieved a 200-yard receiving game in 26% of seasons (13 of 50).
  • If we use that as a baseline expectation, that means there is value at about +300 for each player.
  • By playing them together, you have about a 50% chance of hitting on at least one of them this season.

Pick published: Aug 4 12:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Team Future

Ravens Over 2.5 AFC North Division Wins -180

Won: 3 division wins as of 12/11

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Ravens win at least 3 divison games against AFC North opponents in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • The AFC North Division wins market is only available at Caesars/William Hill Sportsbook as most books are not offering that division right now because of Cleveland QB uncertainty.
  • Baltimore had been one of the best teams in the AFC the previous two seasons, but in 2021 they were ravaged by injuries, which included all of their running backs being injured pre-season, and Lamar Jackson missing the last five games of the season. So there's an injury bounce-back and value with Baltimore.
  • Baltimore's season win total (9.5, with odds ranging from -130 to -150 on Over) is a little less attractive than the division win prop at Caesars, since the latter is more of a concentrated play against the Browns' situation, as games against the Browns make up one-third of the outcome.
  • We project the odds that the Ravens win the AFC North (35.6% and potentially higher) as greater than their odds of winning fewer than three AFC North games (less than 30% based on our current game projections) and see value on both of these correlated plays.

Pick published: Jun 9 4:00pm ET, available at that time at William Hill.

Spread

Panthers +4.0 -110

Won: 30-24

Panthers at Seahawks

Sun Dec 11 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and against public popularity.
  • Seattle is the most popular spread pick in our public pool pick data all year in the NFL, with 82% of the public taking Seattle.
  • Since head coach Matt Rhule was fired and Steve Wilks took over, the Panthers are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS
  • Carolinas defense (and particularly the pass defense) has been very good over the last seven games. Opposing starting QBs are averaging only 6.5 yards per attempt since Wilks took over coaching duties. Carolina has held five of the last six opponents under 350 yards in regulation, with the only exception being the Bengals.
  • Seattle, meanwhile, has underperformed point spread expectations in its last three games. On offense, running back Kenneth Walker sustained an injury in the last game and will miss this game, as will backup Deejay Dallas. 
  • The defense ranks 30th in yards allowed, and nearly allowed a limited Rams team with backups at key positions on offense to score 27 points last week.

Pick published: Dec 11 9:25am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 121

Over/Under

Vikings at Lions Under 52.5 -106

Lost: 57 points

Sun Dec 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota and Detroit combine for fewer than 53 points in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under pick for Week 14, and the highest-rated cover odds play all season in the NFL.
  • Minnesota and Detroit both rank in the top 5 in yards per point (scoring more than expected based on yards gained on offense) for the full season, and also in the most recent three games, providing an area of regression against this high total.

Pick published: Dec 7 12:01pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 106

Spread

Browns +5.5 -110

Lost: 10-23

Browns at Bengals

Sun Dec 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Cleveland Browns win the game or lose by fewer than 6 points in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick in Week 14.
  • The Browns defensive front has had success against the Bengals with Joe Burrow, sacking him 17 times in 4 games, including 5 in the earlier Browns win as an underdog this season.

Pick published: Dec 11 9:37am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 113

Player Prop

Geno Smith Under 247.5 Passing Yards -110

Lost: 367 yards

Seahawks at Rams

Sun Dec 4 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Geno Smith passes for fewer than 248 passing yards in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • The total in this game is only 41 points, and with the Rams expected to struggle to score points, that should impact how aggressive Seattle is.
  • With DT Aaron Donald out, expect Seattle to run the ball with Kenneth Walker at a high rate if playing with the lead.
  • Our passing model sees about 30 yards of value on the Under in this game.
  • Geno Smith's passing over/unders have been correlated with Seattle's wins or losses. He has gone Under his passing total in 4 of 6 wins, and over in 4 of 5 losses.

Pick published: Dec 4 9:55am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Spread

Seahawks -7.5 -110

Lost: 27-23

Seahawks at Rams

Sun Dec 4 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Seattle wins the game by more than 7 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 13.
  • The Rams have a host of key injuries and because of draft pick trades and roster construction are not a deep team. 
  • Star DT Aaron Donald now has what is believed to be a high ankle sprain, QB Matthew Stafford has had two concussinos in a month, WR Cooper Kupp is on IR, and WR Allen Robinson was just declared out for the year.
  • In last week's game with Bryce Perkins at QB, the Rams had only 198 total yards, and averaged less than 3 net yards per pass.
  • Seattle has lost the last two games, but they were in close contests and Seattle will have a significant offensive edge going against the Rams' poor offensive line, likely backup quarterbacks, and the two best receivers out for LA.

Pick published: Nov 29 3:52pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 467

Over/Under

Packers at Bears Over 44.5 -110

Won: 47 points

Sun Dec 4 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Green Bay and Chicago combine for more than 44 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model play, but is a play based on player news and trends.
  • Chicago QB Justin Fields has practiced each of the last two days and does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's contest, returning after missing last week.
  • The Bears have gone Over in 6 straight games, since they switched the offense to more of a run-based style like the Ravens to take advantage of Fields' skills.
  • The Bears' defense has allowed 27 or more points in five straight games since trading away LB Roquan Smith and are arguably the weakest defense in the NFL right now.
  • The Bears have scored 24 points or more in Fields' last five games, and he has scored at least one rushing touchdown in each of them.
  • The Packers have put up 380 or more yards in four of their last five games, but have underachieved in scoring.
  • Green Bay ranks 31st in rush yards allowed and 29th in rush yards per attempt (5.0) particularly struggling in games against mobile QBs.

Pick published: Dec 2 4:50pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 465

Player Prop

Christian Kirk Over 60.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 104 yards

Jaguars at Lions

Sun Dec 4 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Christian Kirk has more than 60 receiving yards in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing projection model shows value on the Over in passing in this game for Jacksonville with the high point total and close game spread between the Jags and Lions.
  • Kirk has accounted for 27% of Jacksonville's receiving yards this year, and we project the Jags for over 270 passing yards in this game.
  • The Detroit Lions have struggled with wide receivers recently, with 7 different WRs getting 75 or more yards in their last 5 games.
  • That includes several slot receivers posting big numbers, and Kirk is moved around in the Jacksonville offense and lines up in the slot on a good percentage of snaps.

Pick published: Dec 4 10:08am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Player Prop

Russell Wilson Under 224.5 Passing Yards -115

Won: 189 yards

Broncos at Ravens

Sun Dec 4 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Russell Wilson passes for fewer than 225 yards in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • The Denver Broncos are projected to score only 15.25 points this week, based on the 40 point total and being a 9.5 point underdog, and this passing total provides over 30 yards of value for that point expectation.
  • Wilson is coming off a season-low 142 passing yards against Carolina as the Denver offense continues to struggle.

Pick published: Dec 4 9:38am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Spread

Texans +7.0 -105

Lost: 14-27

Browns at Texans

Sun Dec 4 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Houston wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is our hgihest-rated playable spread pick for NFL Week 13.
  • The Cleveland Browns have actually been pretty good on offense with Jacoby Brissett at QB, ranking 5th in yards per game, while the defense has been below average in most categories.
  • QB Deshaun Watson is expected to make his first career start with the Browns after an 11-game suspension for his off-field conduct, after sitting out all of the 2021 season.
  • His first start comes in Houston, where he played, and there are emotional factors at play in addtion to the questions about Watson in a game for first time in nearly two years.

Pick published: Nov 29 3:26pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 464

Player Prop

Josh Allen Over 7.5 Rushing Attempts -105

Won: 8 rush attempts

Bills at Patriots

Thu Dec 1 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Josh Allen rushes the ball more than 7 times in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • Josh Allen has rushed the ball an average of 7.3 attempts per game, and had over 7.5 rush attempts in exactly half of his games over the last two seasons.
  • However, he runs more in games that are expected to be closer contests. In 15 games where the Bills were favored by less than seven points over that span, he has averaged 8.8 rush attempts and had at least 8 attempts in 10 of 15 games.
  • He's had double digit rush attempts in four games this year and all four were on the road.
  • This is a big game for Buffalo's division winning chances and playoff seeding chances playing at fellow AFC East opponent New England, and we project Allen will be more willing to run in this game to sustain drives.

Pick published: Dec 1 12:29pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Team Future

Vikings Over 8.5 Wins -130

Won: 9-2 after Week 12

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Vikings win at least 9 games in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for the Vikings is 8.9 wins in 2022.
  • Vikings lines have moved up at some sports books, where they are now 9.0 wins with slight juice on the Over, but you can still get 8.5 at FanDuel (-130) and PointsBet (-135).
  • This is playable based both on the extra half win compared to the market (with the juice not totally counteracting that), and on head coaching trends.
  • In our fantasy football team projections, the Vikings' most similar teams included those with a new head coach, established pocket quarterback, and similar passing and points allowed numbers the year before.
  • The 25 most similar teams went 15-8-2 against the Over/Under, and the six most similar went 4-1-1, with the only non-cover missing by 0.5 win and finishing 8-8.
  • In our win totals research, teams with a first-time head coach (particularly younger head coaches) and teams where the previous coach had been there five or more years (and thus there was stability) outperformed expectations.
  • First-time head coaches (2003-2021) are 49-37-3 (56.5%) against the Over/Under.
  • Coaches taking over a team when the previous head coach had been in place for five or more years are 25-15-1 (62.2%) since 2003.
  • After two consecutive years of just missing the playoffs, the Vikings replaced Mike Zimmer, who had been in Minnesota since 2014, with 37-year-old Kevin O'Connell, who comes from Sean McVay's offensive staff.

Pick published: Jun 2 12:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

Buccaneers Under 11.5 Wins -110

Won: 5-6 after Week 12

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Buccaneers win fewer than 12 games in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Tampa Bay is projected for 11.0 wins by our models, showing value on the Under.
  • In addition, there is a lot of offensive uncertainty and turnover with the receiving group, with key injuries and new faces compared to last season, in light of Chris Godwin returning from a knee injury and Rob Gronkowski's retirement.
  • Addendum on 8/1: Pro bowl center Ryan Jensen suffered a significant injury that could keep him out for months, creating even more potential issues on offense.

Pick published: Jun 23 3:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Player Future

Jaylen Waddle Over 925.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 963 yards after Week 12

Miami Dolphins

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Jaylen Waddle has at least 926 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Waddle is 1053 receiving yards, about 128 yards of value.
  • Yes, Miami acquired Tyreek Hill and that will eat into Waddle's target share some, but it will also likely lead to expanded overall receiving numbers and better coverage situations.
  • Waddle had over 100 receptions in 2021 as a rookie despite missing a game, so even a slight regression in receptions can still hit this number, if his yards per catch bumps up.
  • Last year, Waddle averaged only 9.8 yards per catch, however, that was dragged down by 5.5 games with Jacoby Brissett at QB where he averaged a paltry 8.0 yards per reception and had fewer receptions per game.
  • Given his historical comps and his draft status as well as his rookie year production, we are projecting this total as a value on Waddle.

Pick published: Jul 7 11:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Patrick Mahomes Under 288.5 Passing Yards -110

Lost: 320 yards

Rams at Chiefs

Sun Nov 27 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Patrick Mahomes passes for fewer than 289 yards in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • Mahomes has had 290 or more passing yards in six straight, explaining the high total, but this is a pick based on the huge spread and low Rams' expected point total based on starting a third-string QB. 
  • That could impact Mahomes' passing volume and pushing ball down the field, as the Rams' offense will be limited and the Chiefs will likely recognize that the Rams likely need to create turnovers to succeed.
  • Our passing model projects 20 yards of value on this under based on the likely game script and spread in this game.

Pick published: Nov 27 10:35am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Spread

Jaguars +4.0 -110

Won: 28-27

Ravens at Jaguars

Sun Nov 27 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jacksonville wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick for Week 12 according to our models.
  • Baltimore's passing offense has been impacted by injuries after a hot start, and Lamar Jackson has had only six touchdown passes in his last seven games, and has been under 7.0 yards per attempt in six of seven.
  • Jacksonville is only 1-6 in close games but has outscored opponents on the year, and the only game they lost by more than 8 was in the last game at KC before the bye.
  • Jacksonville has poor fumble recovery luck (35%) and a poor turnover margin in the last seven games, providing some positive regression potential our models are picking up.

Pick published: Nov 23 1:02pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 252

Over/Under

Broncos at Panthers Over 35.0 -110

Lost: 33 points

Sun Nov 27 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Denver and Carolina combine for more than 35 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under model pick for Week 12.
  • This is the lowest NFL total since Baltimore-Pittsburgh was also 35 in Week 17 of 2019, and the lowest total in a non-final regular season week game since Cleveland-Pittsburgh (33.5) in Week 12 of 2012.
  • Since 2010, games with an Over/Under of 36.0 or lower have gone Over 16 times versus 8 Unders.

Pick published: Nov 21 5:23pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 253

Over/Under

Buccaneers at Browns Over 42.5 -110

Lost: 40 points

Sun Nov 27 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay and Cleveland combine for more than 42 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model pick for NFL Over/Unders in Week 12.
  • Tampa Bay has gone Under in 8 of 10 games but Cleveland games have gone Over 7 times, Under 2 times, and one push.
  • Tampa Bay ranks 29th and Cleveland 22nd in yards per point scored, so both have underperformed their point expectation based on yards gained through 11 weeks.
  • Tampa Bay has struggled to run the ball this year, ranking 32nd in rush yards and yards per carry, but had their season-high in the win over Seattle before the bye, with rookie RB Rachaad White having his first career 100-yard game. 
  • The Bucs have battled offensive injuries all year, but are arguably the healthiest they have been on offense so far this year coming off the bye week.
     

Pick published: Nov 22 7:53am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 257

Over/Under

Bengals at Titans Over 43.0 -110

Lost: 36 points

Sun Nov 27 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati and Tennessee combine for more than 43 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Cincinnati RB Joe Mixon is out for the game, which should drive Cincinnati to be more pass-heavy than normal with Samaje Perine and Chris Evans as the backs. 
  • The matchup also dictates that Cincinnati will probably want to try to pass the ball against Tennessee's defensive front.
  • The Titans' defensive front is capable of sacks and creating turnovers, while the Bengals can create big plays, both outcomes which can drive points in this game.
  • The Titans are finally getting healthier in the pasising game, and Ryan Tannehill just had a season-high 333 passing yards in the last game against Green Bay.

Pick published: Nov 27 10:27am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 259

Player Prop

Tony Pollard Over 61.5 Rushing Yards -120

Lost: 60 yards

Giants at Cowboys

Thu Nov 24 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tony Pollard rushes for more than 61 yards in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • Tony Pollard has had 80+ rushing yards in each of the last four games.
  • Even in the last game against Minnesota with Ezekiel Elliott returning, Pollard had as many rushing attempts as Elliott (15) and nearly doubled him up in rushing yards (80 to 42).
  • Pollard also put up over 100 receiving yards last week and is Dallas' best playmaker, and we don't think his role diminishes in this Thanksgiving spotlight game.
  • Our team projection for Dallas overall rushing yards is 137.5 based on the spread and over/under, so Pollard would have to account for less than half that projection to hit this Over.

Pick published: Nov 24 10:11am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Jimmy Garoppolo Under 31.5 Pass Attempts -105

Won: 29 attempts

49ers vs. Cardinals

Mon Nov 21 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jimmy Garoppolo attempts fewer than 32 pass attempts in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • With the news that Arizona QB Kyler Murray is out and Colt McCoy is starting, the spread has moved to -10 for San Francisco.
  • Based on our passing model, using the spread/total and San Francisco's pass-run splits, we project Jimmy Garoppolo for 28.5 attempts, three attempts of value.
  • Since the start of the 2020 season, Garoppolo has thrown fewer than 31 pass attempts in 7 of 8 games where the 49ers were favored by 6 or more points entering the contest, as San Francisco tends to pass at lower volume when expected to win.
  • We also show value on the passing yards under, but that one is more vulnerable to big plays with yards after catch from San Francisco playmakers even if they pass at lower volume.

Pick published: Nov 21 11:39am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Over/Under

Chiefs at Chargers Over 52.0 -110

Won: 57 points

Sun Nov 20 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City and the LA Chargers combine for more than 52 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is our second-highest Over/Under model pick for Week 11 in the NFL.
  • So far this year, Over/Unders with estimated cover odds of 55% have gone 9-2-1 and playable Over/Unders have gone 32-19-3.
  • The Chargers should have both starting WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the lineup, and the two haven't played most of a game together since Week 1.
  • Neither has played the last two weeks (and Allen only briefly in Game 7 since Week 1), and the Chargers went Under in both of the last two games.
  • The Chiefs also went Under the last two weeks, in two home games where they were bigger favorites, but are 3-1 on Overs on the road this year.

Pick published: Nov 20 8:50am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 469

Over/Under

Bengals at Steelers Over 39.5 -114

Won: 67 points

Sun Nov 20 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati and Pittsburgh combine for more than 39 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated Over/Under model pick for Week 11 in the NFL.
  • So far this year, Over/Unders with estimated cover odds of 55% have gone 9-2-1 and playable Over/Unders have gone 32-19-3.
  • Cincinnati has had two of its highest yardage games in the last three games.
  • Pittsburgh, coming off its bye with rookie QB Kenny Pickett, had its highest yardage and first down total this year.
  • In the first matchup this year, Pittsburgh's defense created 5 turnovers, and Cincinnati managed only 20 points despite 432 total yards. 
  • The weather forecast for this game is cold, but no precipitation and moderate wind, so not conditions that should impact scoring. 

Pick published: Nov 20 8:40am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 473

Spread

Steelers +5.0 -107

Lost: 30-37

Bengals at Steelers

Sun Nov 20 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model spread pick for Week 11 in the NFL right now.
  • Pittsburgh just got DE T.J. Watt back last week, for the first time since his performance in the upset against the Bengals in Week 1, and held the Saints to 10 points and generated 2 turnovers (after having none in previous three games.)
  • The Steelers are 9-6-1 in games Watt plays over the last two years, and 1-8 in games he has missed.
  • The Bengals' offensive performances have been correlated with the quality, or lack thereof, of the defensive fronts they have faced, as the Cincinnati offensive line can struggle against good pass rushers, but Joe Burrow and company can exploit weaker defenses with time to throw.

Pick published: Nov 15 9:49am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 474

Spread

Bears +3.0 -110

Push: 24-27

Bears at Falcons

Sun Nov 20 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chicago wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable spread pick according to our model but is a staff play based on team trends.
  • Chicago has lost three straight games, including two close losses in the last two weeks, but has scored 31 points per game over the last four weeks, after embracing using QB Justin Fields as more of a designed runner.
  • Atlanta's offense is going the other way, as they have finished with 315 or fewer yards in 5 of the last 6 games. They have also been outgained by over 800 yards this year, and have finished with fewer total yards than the opponent in 9 straight games.
  • Atlanta's defense is not good, ranking 31st in total yards, and while they have been relatively better against the run than the pass, they haven't played any running quarterbacks this year.
  • So while Chicago's defense has also struggled recently, the offense is rolling and we'll take the much better offense getting points.

Pick published: Nov 15 10:13am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 465

Player Prop

Justin Fields to Score a TD +110

Won: 4-yard rush TD

Bears at Falcons

Sun Nov 20 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Justin Fields scores a rushing or receiving TD in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • Justin Fields has scored six rushing touchdowns this year, scoring in exactly half the Bears' games so far.
  • However, since the team switched the offense to a more "Ravens-style" approach to put utilize Fields as a runner more, four weeks ago, he has averaged 12.5 rush attempts, 116.7 rush yards, and scored in every game. 
  • Bears RB Khalil Herbert, second on the team with four rushing touchdowns, was recently placed on IR, further increasing Fields' role as a likely runner near the goal line.
  • Atlanta is 31st in total yards allowed and 28th in rushing touchdowns allowed (13). 

Pick published: Nov 20 9:16am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Jalen Hurts Under 238.5 Passing Yards -110

Won: 190 yards

Eagles at Colts

Sun Nov 20 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jalen Hurts passes for fewer than 239 yards in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • Our Over/Under models have this game as a playable Under, and our passing yards model also shows Under value on this passing total given the spread/total and Philadelphia pass splits.
  • Hurts started the year with three straight games with over 30 pass attempts, but has only attempted that many once in the last six games, so he more than likely needs to have high efficiency to hit this number.
  • The Eagles just lost TE Dallas Goedert, who was placed on the IR, and that could also impact Hurts' efficiency.
  • Coming off the first loss of the season, we also expect the Eagles to try to get Hurts going as a runner again, as he has failed to top 30 rushing yards in each of the last four games.

Pick published: Nov 20 9:25am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Spread

Commanders +11.0 -110

Won: 32-21

Commanders at Eagles

Mon Nov 14 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game or loses by fewer than 11 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated spread model pick for Week 10 at +10.5, but you can also still find it for +11 at some books.
  • Before the 2021 season, we wrote about the small home field advantage in the NFC East divisional games, and adding in the results since then, home teams in games involving New York/Philadelphia/Washington are 52-68-2 ATS (43.4%) since 2002.
  • Philadelphia's turnover margin per game (+1.9) is more than double any other team this year and a possible source for regression, since only one team since 1978 (Washington, 1983) has finished with a better turnover margin than that over a full season.
  • Washington has played better on defense since their first loss to Philadelphia, holding 5 of the last 6 opponents under 325 total yards.

     

Pick published: Nov 8 10:42am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 265

Over/Under

Cowboys at Packers Over 42.5 -110

Won: 59 points

Sun Nov 13 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Dallas and Green Bay combine for more than 42 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model over/under play for Week 10, with 57.5% cover odds.
  • In addition, Green Bay just lost arguably their best defender, Rashan Gary, to a season-ending injury.
  • Dallas, after playing more conservatively and relying on the defense while QB Dak Prescott was out, started to show their offensive explosiveness in their last game before the bye, hitting their season high in points, yards, passing yards, and rushing yards against the Bears.
  • Green Bay significantly underperformed their expected points last week, as Aaron Rodgers threw two costly interceptions, and the Packers only managed 9 points while gaining 389 yards, above their season average of 345.

Pick published: Nov 8 10:50am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 261

Spread

Vikings +6.5 -105

Won: 33-30

Vikings at Bills

Sun Nov 13 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick at +6, and if you can get the +6.5 still available at some books, grab it.
  • Bills QB Josh Allen is being evaluated for a ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) and nerve injury to his right elbow. The team said they would update on Wednesday.
  • If Allen misses this game, or is limited or impacted with an injury to his throwing elbow, this line is a huge value, and is a decent price regardless on the Vikings.

Pick published: Nov 8 10:57am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 253

Player Prop

Jared Goff Over 225.5 Passing Yards -110

Won: 236 yards

Lions at Bears

Sun Nov 13 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jared Goff passes for more than 225 yards in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing yards model shows more than 20 yards of over value on Goff in this game, based on the spread and the 48.5 over/under total, one of the higher totals of the week.
  • The Bears defense has given up 552 passing yards and 9.7 yards per pass attempt allowed the last two weeks, and has traded away both DE Robert Quinn and LB Roquan Smith, impacting the defense.
  • Goff and the Lions have battled lots of injuries on offense that has impacted continuity, but he has still gone over the passing yards prop in 5 of 8 games.
  • His lowest yardage total game was last week, when he threw only 26 passes in a low-scoring game against Green Bay where Detroit played with the lead most of the game.
  • The Chicago offense is clicking and the Bears are scoring, which should push the scoring environment and increase Detroit's passing volume compared to last week.

Pick published: Nov 13 8:54am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Spread

Saints +2.0 -110

Lost: 13-27

Ravens at Saints

Mon Nov 7 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Saints win the game or lose by fewer than 2 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model spread pick for Week 9.
  • The Ravens are also dealing with multiple offensive injuries, as WR Rashod Bateman was placed on IR, and TE Mark Andrews is doubtful to play.
  • It might be about time to put the Saints as a buy-low candidate after their showing last week in a 24-0 win over Las Vegas. They were wrecked by injuries over the first seven weeks, including QB Jameis Winston, RB Alvin Kamara missing time, CB Marshon Lattimore and WRs Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. They also played four games in an 19-day stretch in October, including a trip to London.
  • New Orleans is currently dead last in turnover margin entering this game, while Baltimore is tied for third. Some regression to the mean there would benefit New Orleans.

Pick published: Nov 6 7:53am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 474

Team Future

Seahawks Over 5.5 Season Wins +110

Won: 6 wins and counting, Wk 9

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Seattle wins more than 5 games during the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our current projection for Seattle is 6.5 wins, a full win of value over the offered line.
  • Seattle is already 2-2, so you need them to finish 4-9 or better the rest of the way to win this bet.
  • The Seahawks' offense has been playing really well, and they currently rank in the top 5 in pass efficiency (net yards per attempt) and rushing yards per carry.
  • Seattle is 30th in our predictive power ratings, yet we are still showing strong value on this number. They rate better in systems, like Football Outsiders' DVOA, that have per-play components given the pass efficiency numbers on offense.  

Pick published: Oct 4 10:56am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Player Prop

Derek Carr Over 249.5 Passing Yards -115

Won: 259 Yards

Raiders at Jaguars

Sun Nov 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Derek Carr passes for more than 249 yards in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • After three straight weeks of higher passing yard totals to start the year, Derek Carr has been under 250 yards for four games straight, but we are projecting a bounceback in Week 9.
  • Las Vegas has had a lot of injuries and turnover in the receiving group in recent weeks, and also were impacted by illness last week prior to their poor performance at New Orleans.
  • Based on the spread and the point total, we project Carr to have 270 passing yards this week against the Jaguars.
  • The Jaguars have allowed three straight QBs to go over the passing yard number, and that's despite the Jaguars losing all three games, so this is not dependent on game script and opponents chasing the score and passing at a high rate late. 
     

Pick published: Nov 6 8:38am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Gerald Everett Over 48.5 Receiving Yards -120

Lost: 36 Yards

Chargers at Falcons

Sun Nov 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Gerald Everett finishes with more than 48 receiving yards in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on the Chargers' injury situation plus the Atlanta defense.
  • The Chargers will be without both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at WR, and their depth has also been hit hard by injuries. That leaves WR Josh Palmer, TE Gerald Everett, and WR Michael Bandy (4 career catches) as the top options.
  • Everett has averaged 43.6 yards, and exceeded this yardage total in 4 of 7 games played so far.
  • With the injury situation, he should see an even larger target share than normal.
  • Atlanta's defense has been really bad against the pass, ranking dead last in yards allowed (307 per game), and allowing multiple big games per week to opposing receivers.

Pick published: Nov 6 8:19am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Spread

Raiders -1.5 -106

Lost: 20-27

Raiders at Jaguars

Sun Nov 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Las Vegas wins by more than 1 point in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but a trends/player info pick.
  • The Raiders are coming off getting shut out in Week 8 against New Orleans.
  • Since the start of the 2017 season, teams that were shut out the week before are 20-9-3 ATS, including the Colts' outright win over Kansas City in Week 3 this year.
  • Las Vegas was also hit by illness last week, at the end of the week head coach Josh McDaniels said ""We had a little bug going through the team. Most of our guys are getting on the other side of it. Knock on wood that we don't end up with another four or five of us getting it, but I think most everybody will be back."
  • That included star WR Davante Adams (1 catch, 3 yards) who missed multiple practices last week, so it's at least a partial explanation that the Raiders played poorly because of that impact across the team, and are a potential value bounce-back.

Pick published: Nov 1 2:15pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 465

Spread

Panthers +7.0 -110

Lost: 21-42

Panthers at Bengals

Sun Nov 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model pick in early Week 9 spread lines, and the line has already moved from opening at 8 points down to 7 points since opening.
  • The Panthers have actually played better since the firing of former head coach Matt Rhule, and the offense has been more productive with P.J. Walker at QB (7.7 YPA) in place of Baker Mayfield (6.3 YPA).
  • Cincinnati struggled on offense on Monday Night in the first game without star WR Ja'Marr Chase, and he will be out for this game.
  • Even with Chase, Cincinnati was far more explosive on offense going against the two worst teams (New Orleans and Atlanta) in terms of pass rush pressure and pass defense, but has struggled against other opponents because of offensive line issues.
  • While Carolina does not rate highly in sacks, they are closer to average in net yards per pass and hurry and pressure rate stats.

Pick published: Nov 1 12:02pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel, PointsBet.

Rot# 463

Over/Under

Dolphins at Bears Over 43.5 -114

Won: 67 points

Sun Nov 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami and Chicago combine for 43 or more points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under pick according to our models.
  • In addition, the Chicago Bears have traded away DE Robert Quinn and LB Roquan Smith in the last week, and just gave up 49 points to Dallas, and the Bears have one of the worst defenses in the NFL now.
  • Miami has averaged 26 points a game in the five games Tua Tagoavailoa played all game at QB, compared to 16.0 points per game in the other three.
  • Chicago is playing better on offense recently and embracing their rushing QB in Justin Fields and their strong running game, as they have had their three highest yardage games in the last three, with 20+ first downs in each.
  • The weather in Chicago looks like it will be unseasonably warm in early November for this week, and not an issue that should impact offenses.

Pick published: Nov 1 12:51pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 455

Player Prop

Justin Fields Over 169.5 Passing Yards -120

Lost: 123 Yards

Dolphins at Bears

Sun Nov 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Justin Fields passes for more than 169 yards in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing yards model has Fields projected for 194 passing yards, nearly 25 yards of value.
  • After a historically poor passing start to the season, Fields has had more than 170 yards passing in 4 of the last 5 games.
  • The defense also traded away two of its best players in recent weeks, and the point total in this game is climbing reflecting the Bears' likely poor defense.
  • Chicago also traded for WR Chase Claypool to give Fields another receiving option.
  • The Dolphins are capable of pushing the score and requiring the Bears to pass enough to hit this low total.
  • Opponent QBs have gone over the yardage total in 5 of 8 games, but it is 5 of 6 in the games that Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa starts, as the two most recent unders came in games the Dolphins trailed throughout and the team played without Tua, so the opponent did not pass much late.

Pick published: Nov 6 8:47am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Spread

Browns +3.0 -110

Won: 32-13

Bengals at Browns

Mon Oct 31 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Browns win the game or lose by fewer than 3 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top playable spread pick according to our models in Week 8.
  • Further, Adam Schefter just reported that Bengals star WR Ja'Marr Chase is dealing with a hip injury that could keep him out 4-6 weeks, and his loss could have an impact on the Bengals' big play offense. 
  • If you can still find this at +3.5 take it, but it's good at +3 which is where the spread moved immediately upon the news coming out, at many books.

Pick published: Oct 27 4:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 278

Spread

Giants +3.0 -110

Lost: 13-27

Giants at Seahawks

Sun Oct 30 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The New York Giants win the game or lose by fewer than 3 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • Our models have this as the top playable spread pick in Week 8 as of Tuesday morning.
  • The New York Giants moved to 6-1 and the Seahawks to 4-3 as two of the biggest surprises of the year.
  • Some factors that our models like include the Giants' ability to control the ball in the second half of games, and the high rushing yards per game and per play compared to Seattle's defense.
  • The Giants are still undervalued because they do not put up flashy passing stats and are winning with ball control, but the offense continues to improve while they put up wins, and they are coming off a Daniel Jones game with 202 yards passing and 107 yards rushing as the team racked up a season-high 27 first downs.
  • The Giants have also been in seven close games this year so grabbing the number while it is at the key 3 point line is important.

Pick published: Oct 25 10:04am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 269

Spread

Texans -1.0 -110

Lost: 10-17

Titans at Texans

Sun Oct 30 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Houston wins the game by more than 1 point in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is now our top model pick after a line move, following the news that Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is out.
  • Rookie QB Malik Willis is starting for Tennessee, a player who has rushing ability but is raw as a passer.
  • Our models are picking up that teams like the Texans (and their poor overall power rating) who have spreads like this perform well on average (likely because of injury-related impacts on the spread). 
  • The Texans have also matched up well with the Titans recently, including 2-0 ATS last year with an outright win as a big underdog, and then losing by only a field goal in the rematch.

Pick published: Oct 30 10:03am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 268

Player Prop

DJ Moore Over 58.5 Receiving Yards -110

Won: 152 yards

Panthers at Falcons

Sun Oct 30 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: DJ Moore has more than 58 receiving yards in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • With the trades of RB Christian McCaffrey and WR Robbie Anderson from Carolina, Moore is the lone established receiving threat and should get an outsized share of the Panthers' passing volume.
  • Moore had a season-high 7 catches and 69 yards last week in the game without those two. 
  • Atlanta is 32nd in pass yards allowed this year through seven games.
  • 12 different starting wide receivers have had at least 60 yards receviing so far against Atlanta (Jarvis Landry, Cooper Kupp, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Donovan People-Jones, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd).

Pick published: Oct 30 10:56am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Spread

Panthers +4.5 -107

Won: 34-37

Panthers at Falcons

Sun Oct 30 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our models.
  • Atlanta is near the bottom of the NFL in both yards for and against, and has been outgained by 688 yards for the season.
  • Atlanta's offense has been worse without RB Cordarrelle Patterson (on IR the last three games) as they have averaged 5.8 fewer points per game, and 94.3 fewer yards per game.
  • The Atlanta pass defense is dead last in sacks, and last in pressure rate, while teams are throwing  at a high rate and averaging the 3rd-best net yards per pass against in the NFL.
  • Carolina is coming off its best offensive performance, with QB P.J. Walker in his second start, as he averaged 8.1 yards per attempt against Tampa Bay.

Pick published: Oct 26 11:14am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 257

Over/Under

Cardinals at Vikings Under 49.0 -110

Lost: 60 points

Sun Oct 30 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona and Minnesota combine for fewer than 49 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest rated Over/Under for Week 8.
  • Several regression factors are contributing to value on the Under in this game.
  • Minnesota is dead last in opponent TD rate in the red zone (80%) so far this year.
  • Arizona has four defensive touchdowns so far this year, boosting their scoring numbers, including two pick-sixes against the Saints that allowed them to get to 42 points on only 326 total yards last week.
  • Arizona rates last in net yards per pass on offense, and has not been making many explosive plays this year.
  • Arizona opponents have scored on a league-best 46% of all offensive possessions.

Pick published: Oct 26 10:59am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 264

Spread

Cardinals +3.5 -107

Lost: 26-34

Cardinals at Vikings

Sun Oct 30 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top model plays against the spread for Week 8, at 55% cover odds.
  • Minnesota is off to a 5-1 start, but the last four wins have all come in close games that could have gone either way.
  • One big factor our model is picking up is the high opponent yards per play that Minnesota is surrendering as a favorite entering this game.
  • Minnesota has been outgained by nearly 300 yards through the first 6 games, and ranks 31st in net yards per pass allowed.

Pick published: Oct 25 9:04am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 263

Player Prop

Tony Pollard Over 77.5 Rushing Yards -115

Won: 131 yards

Bears at Cowboys

Sun Oct 30 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tony Pollard rushes for more than 77 yards in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • Tony Pollard will be the lead back for the Dallas Cowboys this week with Ezekiel Elliott unlikely to play.
  • In a game with a 10 point spread and a 42.5 point total, we project Dallas for 134 rushing yards as a team this week.
  • Pollard, who has averaged 5.6 yards per carry this year, and has been arguably the best back on Dallas for the last two years, should see a high percentage of carries in this matchup, and we project him as one of the highest yardage rushers of the week, with a projection of 91 yards.

Pick published: Oct 30 10:29am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Spread

Patriots -2.5 -115

Won: 22-17

Patriots at Jets

Sun Oct 30 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New England wins the game by more than 2 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but a pick based on trends and player news.
  • This division game in New York is the type that has had little home field advantage (close proximity rivals who both play outdoors) and the Patriots specifically have played well in New York under Belichick, going 14-8 ATS.
  • The Patriots have had turnover issues, but are positive regression candidates based on their high INT rate, and opponent fumble rate (The Bears recovered all 5 of their own fumbles last week).
  • The Jets lost RB Breece Hall last week, and he was the big play threat that was providing a big chunk of offense and preventing them from having QB Zach Wilson throw a lot in recent weeks.
  • The Jets will also be without WR Corey Davis who leads the team in receiving yards.

Pick published: Oct 30 9:57am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 265

Over/Under

Broncos vs. Jaguars Over 39.0 -110

Lost: 38 points

Sun Oct 30 • 9:30am ET

More info

How it wins: Denver and Jacksonville combine for more than 39 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top playable model picks for Over/Unders in Week 8.
  • Denver and Jacksonville have both significantly underachieved their scoring when comparing it to yards gained so far this season.
  • Denver is 32nd in points scored but 23rd in yards, while Jacksonville is 16th in points and 7th in yards.
  • Denver is dead last in red zone touchdown rate on offense (23.5%) while ranking first in red zone touchdown rate on defense (25.0%).
  • Those are regression candidates to provide value on these teams scoring more than expected against this lowest total of the week.

Pick published: Oct 26 10:49am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 251

Over/Under

Dolphins at Lions Over 51.5 -110

Won: 58 points

Sun Oct 30 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami and Detroit combine to score more than 51 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under pick per our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Both teams have had their offensive numbers impacted by injuries this year, as Miami lost QB Tua Tagovailoa for 2.5 games to concussion, and Detroit has been without several key players recently.
  • Detroit should have RB D'Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown for the Week 8 matchup, and the Lions scored 95 points in the first three games with both active.
  • Detroit's defense ranks as the worst in the NFL, dead last in yards and points allowed.
  • Miami's offense has the playmakers to make this a track meet, and Detroit's offense can make explosive plays if their best offensive weapons return.

Pick published: Oct 26 9:54am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 261

Moneyline

Colts To Win +135

Lost: 10-19

Colts at Titans

Sun Oct 23 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Indianapolis wins the game in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick according to our models.
  • A couple of years ago, we wrote an article about home teams (like Tennessee here) seeking a division sweep.
  • Adding in the results since that article was written, teams like the Titans who are going for the sweep after winning game 1 on the road as a small dog (4 or less) and are favored by 4 or less in the rematch are only 16-21 SU and 14-23 ATS since 2008.
  • In addition, the Colts offense is getting healthy and will likely have RB Jonathan Taylor back, a week after they scored 34 points and put up 29 first downs against the Jaguars.

Pick published: Oct 18 2:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 455

Spread

49ers +3.0 -107

Lost: 23-44

Chiefs at 49ers

Sun Oct 23 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The San Francisco 49ers win the game or lose by fewer than 3 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • Our models show this as a playable spread pick (at +3) and moneyline pick for Week 7.
  • San Francisco is a team that has played to competition level recently and has played better as an underdog (8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS) than in the favorite role (13-15 SU, 12-16 ATS).
  • The 49ers also rank top 5 in both pass offense and defense efficiency by net yards per pass, giving them the pass efficiency edge in this game as an underdog.
  • Another factor that our models like is San Francisco's extremely low YPC allowed (3.3, 1st in NFL)  going against this Chiefs offense.

Pick published: Oct 18 2:52pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 470

Spread

Browns +6.5 -110

Won: 20-23

Browns at Ravens

Sun Oct 23 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Cleveland Browns win the game or loss by fewer than 7 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model pick against the spread in Week 7.
  • Games in the AFC North (played outdoors by teams within geographic proximity) have tended to show low home field advantage. Since 2002, AFC North home teams have covered 46.2% of the time in division games.
  • Home division favorites of 5 or more have only covered 40% of the time (35-53-2), with Baltimore specifically going only 8-18-1 ATS in division home games when favored by 5 or more points in that span.
  • Some other positive regression factors that our models are picking up include Cleveland's turnover margin and low turnover forced rate so far, and Baltimore's low penalty rate.

Pick published: Oct 18 3:10pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 459

Over/Under

Jets at Broncos Under 37.0 -110

Won: 25 points

Sun Oct 23 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: New York and Denver combine for fewer than 37 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top playable model picks for Week 7.
  • QB Russell Wilson is now out for the Broncos, and Brett Rypien will be starting.
  • Denver ranks 32nd in points per game, but 4th in points allowed so far.
  • The Jets have won their last three games with more conservative game plans, and have averaged only 25 pass attempts per game with Zach Wilson at QB.
  • New York has also held three straight opponents under 300 total yards and the defensive line is emerging.
  • Despite one of the lowest blitz rates in the NFL, the Jets rank top 5 in several pass rush categories, including knockdown rate and pressure rate. 
  • All these factors point to a defensive approach from both teams.

Pick published: Oct 23 10:28am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 466

Player Prop

Geno Smith Under 260.5 Passing Yards -115

Won: 210 Yards

Seahawks at Chargers

Sun Oct 23 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Geno Smith passes for fewer than 261 yards in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • Based on our passing yard model, there is about 20 yards of Under value on this prop based on the spread and total.
  • The Chargers rank 12th in net yards per pass allowed but are 31st in rush yards per carry (5.6) so far this year. This could lead Seattle to focus on establishing the run more with Kenneth Walker while playing on the road as underdogs.
  • Smith has also shown more willingness to run in recent weeks, and is coming off a game where he was sacked 5 times, and Seattle may look to get the ball out quicker on shorter throws in response.

Pick published: Oct 23 10:38am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Player Prop

Lamar Jackson Over 211.5 Passing Yards -120

Lost: 120 Yards

Browns at Ravens

Sun Oct 23 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Lamar Jackson passes for more than 211 yards in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing yards model shows about 19 yards of Over value on this prop based on the spread and total and Baltimore's projected pass/run distribution.
  • Our Over/Under model also has this as a playable total pick at BAL/CLE Over 46.0
  • Baltimore WR Rashod Batemen is expected to play today after missing the last two games with a foot injury. 
  • Bateman is Baltimore's top receiver and deep threat, and Jackson's yards per attempt has been higher in four games with Bateman (7.6) versus two without (6.0).
  • Cleveland is also a Staff Pick against the spread, making this a correlated wager with that spread play, as Jackson is more likely to throw a higher number of passes if Baltimore doesn't cover the spread of -6.5.



     

Pick published: Oct 23 10:56am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Player Prop

Joe Burrow Under 283.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 481 Yards

Falcons at Bengals

Sun Oct 23 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Joe Burrow passes for fewer than 284 passing yards in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing yards model shows about 19 yards of Under value on this based on the spread, total, and Bengals projected pass-run distribution.
  • Atlanta is 31st in pass attempts faced so far, and 30th in third down conversion percentage allowed, two areas that explain why this total is pushed to the highest of the week in the passing prop market at most books.
  • But that provides an area for regression downward, as Atlanta's pass numbers (291.2 per game allowed) are pushed up by pass volume against, including several games where Atlanta played with a big lead despite being an underdog.
  • Our Over/Under models also give an Under lean on the total.

Pick published: Oct 23 11:09am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Rondale Moore Over 4.5 Receptions -155

Lost: 1 reception

Saints at Cardinals

Thu Oct 20 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Rondale Moore finishes with more than 4 receptions in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • Rondale Moore plays the slot role in the Arizona offense, and this role has generated volume this year.
  • Moore missed the first 3 games with injury, when Greg Dortsch played that position, and then they split the role in Week 4 in Moore's return.
  • Overall, the two have averaged 6.2 receptions and 55.3 yards per game, with Moore totaling 13 catches the last two weeks while getting healthier.
  • Arizona WR DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension this week, but leading receiver Marquise Brown suffered an injury, so Moore should still have a starting role as the slot receiver.
  • Arizona is also currently thin at RB with James Conner and Darrel Williams out, and could use more short designed passes in place of the running game.

Pick published: Oct 20 12:52pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Spread

Broncos +5.0 -105

Won: 16-19

Broncos at Chargers

Mon Oct 17 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Denver wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top playable spread and moneyline pick according to our models for Week 5.
  • The Chargers are also the most popular spread pick in football pools so far this week, and the most over-picked team (relative to their win odds) according to our Football Pick'em Picks data.
  • 94% of the public is picking them to win outright. (So far this year, when there is at least a 30% difference between win odds and pick popularity in our data, the favorite is 1-3 straight up.)
  • Denver has significantly underperformed this year, and is coming off an ugly Thursday Night performance against Indianapolis where they only managed nine points.
  • The Broncos are 31st in points scored after five weeks, but they are a better (18th) in terms of yards gained. That makes for some positive regression potential for Denver.
  • As bad as Denver has been, over the long term, NFL teams don't score a touchdown on only 21% of their red zone trips, as the Broncos have done so far this year.

 

Pick published: Oct 12 5:10pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 275

Player Prop

Jalen Hurts Under 235.5 Passing Yards -115

Won: 155 Yards

Cowboys at Eagles

Sun Oct 16 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: jalen Hurts passes for fewer than 236 yards in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing model has a lean Under here for Hurts based on the point total, of about 20 yards.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have allowed only one quarterback to pass for more than 212 yards (Stafford) and that was in a game with a very high number of pass attempts for the Rams.
  • The Eagles have had more rush attempts than pass attempts and figure to be run heavy in this one unless they are down by multiple scores.
  • With both pass defenses ranking in the top 3 in net yards per pass allowed we expect a more balanced and conservative offensive game plan from the teams.
     

Pick published: Oct 16 7:08am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Over/Under

Jaguars at Colts Over 41.5 -110

Won: 61 points

Sun Oct 16 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jacksonville and Indianapolis combine for more than 41 points in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under according to our models.
  • This line is commonly available at 42.0 at most books, which is playable, but if you can still get the 41.5 grab it.
  • These teams combined for only 24 points in Week 2 as the Jaguars shutout the Colts, but the Colts were without their two best receivers.
  • When picking against the Jags last week, we noted they were outperforming in yards per point. That regressed with a vengeance in Week 5, as they had 422 total yards but scored only 6 points.
  • The Colts are dead last in yards per point right now, significantly underperforming, and they rate 30th in red zone TD rate.
  • There's regression value for more points to be scored as both teams underperformed and failed to get a touchdown last week, keeping this total down.

Pick published: Oct 11 4:52pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 255

Spread

Panthers +10.5 -110

Lost: 10-24

Panthers at Rams

Sun Oct 16 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 11 points in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our models have this as a playable spread pick (53% to cover).
  • This LA Rams team has really struggled on the offensive line, cannot run the ball, and gives up sacks, making them a good option to play against particularly when laying points. 
  • The Rams are 26th in yards and 29th in points scored so far, and have a negative point and yardage differential for the year.
  • Carolina just fired head coach Matt Rhule, and QB Baker Mayfield will miss the game with an ankle injury, but we are not sure either of those things are negative factors for Carolina because Mayfield has been very bad this year. (We will add a note on how teams have done in game 1 after firing a coach later).

Pick published: Oct 11 12:52pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 267

Over/Under

Bengals at Saints Under 43.5 -110

Lost: 56 points

Sun Oct 16 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati and New Orleans combine for fewer than 44 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model pick for an Over/Under in Week 6.
  • The injury news has mostly come down against the offenses in this game, as the Saints will be without their top three wide recievers after Chris Olave has been ruled out this morning (in addition to Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry still being out), and WR Tee Higgins for the Bengals is a game-time decision with an ankle injury.
  • In addition, the Saints' underlying defensive stats are far better than the scoring stats show, as they have been victimized by a few big plays but have been really good and rank highly in third down and red zone defense.
  • Finally, the Bengals have shown a tendency to run the ball more heavily early in games, if not efficiently with Joe Mixon.

Pick published: Oct 16 7:31am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 254

Moneyline

Saints To Win +110

Lost: 26-30

Bengals at Saints

Sun Oct 16 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Orleans wins in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • UPDATE: Most of the injury and player availability news after we made this pick has been negative for the Saints. We no longer recommend this pick, though it will still count in our historical win-loss records.
  • This is a playable money line pick and with the spread fluctuating between 1.5 and 2 points we'll prefer the moneyline to paying juice on the points.
  • The Saints are a little undervalued right now on defense, just looking at their points allowed. They are about average in yards allowed per game, but rank worse (25th) in points allowed at 25.6 per game.
  • Interestingly, the Saints' third-down defense and red-zone defense have been really good. The culprit has been a handful of big plays, as half of the 12 touchdowns scored against New Orleans have been on plays of 40 yards or longer. That includes a couple of defensive scores, but also a big 69-yard run last week by Seattle's Kenneth Walker.
  • Saints QB Jameis Winston returned to practice on Wednesday after two weeks off, but the big variable here is the New Orleans wide receiver situation, but we like grabbing some potential moneyline value before that news is finalized.
  • Cincinnati RB Joe Mixon is averaging only 3.1 yards per carry, yet Cincinnati continues to be run-heavy on early downs despite that inefficiency.
  • Bengals WR Tee Higgins has battled injuries, and even though he was active last week on a limited snap count, he saw zero targets, and the offense isn't clicking right now.

Pick published: Oct 12 5:16pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 254

Player Prop

Kyler Murray Over 257.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 222 yards

Cardinals at Seahawks

Sun Oct 16 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kyler Murray passes for more than 257 yards in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is the second-highest point total on the board (50.5) this week, and even with our over/under models showing value on the Under, we still show nearly 20 yards of value on the passing yards going over here.
  • Seattle's pass defense is dead last in efficiency and net yards per pass against, and has allowed four of five teams to average over 8 yards per pass attempt (San Fran at 7.7 was only team that did not so far).
  • Arizona is also without RBs James Conner and Darrel Williams, leaving Eno Benjamin, more of a combo threat, as the only healthy normal rotation running back available. As a result of that injury situation we expect Arizona to be more pass heavy..

Pick published: Oct 16 7:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

George Pickens Over 47.5 Receiving Yards -115

Lost: 27 yards

Buccaneers at Steelers

Sun Oct 16 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: George Pickens has more than 47 receiving yards in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • George Pickens has been the most productive receiving option for Pittsburgh since Kenny Pickett took over at QB 6 quarters ago. 
  • Pickens was a revelation in the preseason and looked like a future star with his athletic ability, but got off to a slow start with Mitchell Trubisky unable to get him (or anyone else) the ball consistently.
  • This receiving number is close to in line with his season average, but he's had games of 102 and 81  yards with Pickett pushing the ball downfield.
  • We'll play on this connection between the two rookies being real, and for Pickens to continue to emerge.
     

Pick published: Oct 16 7:14am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Isiah Pacheco Over 21.5 Rushing Yards -130

Lost: 0 Yards

Raiders at Chiefs

Mon Oct 10 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Isaih Pacheco rushes for more than 21 yards in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • Pacheco has accounted for approximately 30% of the Chiefs rushing yards (and attempts) through four games.
  • Our projection for the Chiefs rushing yard over/under is 108.4 against the Raiders.
  • That would project Pacheco for 32.5 yards against the Raiders, over 10 yards of value.
  • After mostly being used in late game/reserve situations the first three weeks, the rookie Pacheco matched Clyde Edwards-Helaire with 6 first half rush attempts last week against Tampa Bay, en route to a 63-yard day, and could be in line for a bigger early role going forward.

Pick published: Oct 9 9:50am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Jimmy Garoppolo Under 221.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 253 yards

49ers at Panthers

Sun Oct 9 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jimmy Garoppolo passes for fewer than 222 yards in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing yards model show over 20 yards of value on the Under for Garoppolo.
  • The total for this game is the lowest of the week, 39.5, and San Francisco is a larger road favorite at 6.5 points. That puts San Francisco's opponent, Carolina, tied for the second-lowest implied point total at 16.5 points this week.
  • The Panthers are 32nd in plays run so far, and San Francisco is 23rd, so this projects as a game played at a slow pace and with a reduced number of plays.
  • Carolina's pass defense has been pretty good this year, ranking in the top 10 in net yards per pass. Only one opponent has passed for more than 207 yards, and that was New Orleans throwing 41 times while trailing by multiple scores the entire second half.
  • Given Carolina's offensive struggles and San Francisco's strong pass defense, we project a low-volume pass approach from the 49ers this week, as they try to limit mistakes.
     

Pick published: Oct 7 12:17pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Spread

Cowboys +4.5 -110

Won: 22-10

Cowboys at Rams

Sun Oct 9 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Dallas wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • The Rams offensive line is struggling, as they rank 30th in rush yards and have allowed 16 sacks (Stafford is on pace for a career-high sack rate right now at 9.6% of all dropbacks)
  • Dallas, meanwhile, ranks third in points allowed, has not allowed 20 points in any game yet this year, and has generated 15 sacks in 4 games (tied for 2nd-most in NFL).
  • We'll grab the underdog getting over a field goal in a matchup where they should have a decided advantage on the line when the Rams are on offense. 

Pick published: Oct 4 9:38am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 475

Moneyline

Commanders To Win +110

Lost: 17-21

Titans at Commanders

Sun Oct 9 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is right on the edge of playable according to our models.
  • This same pick was featured in our Week 5 Upset Picks article, where our picks are 8-4 SU so far this year through four weeks. 
  • Since that was posted, the line has moved further in Washington's direction, but we still like this value.
  • Tennessee is 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed so far (7.7), better than only Miami (7.8) and Seattle (8.2). That's even more worrisome considering that the Titans have played only one team (Buffalo) in the upper third of the league in passing.
  • The Titans are one of the most popular picks according to our pool picks data, as the public is picking them heavily in game-winner (85%) and spread pools (77%), while we have seen line movment go against them.

Pick published: Oct 6 5:06pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 464

Spread

Texans +7.0 -105

Won: 13-6

Texans at Jaguars

Sun Oct 9 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Houston wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our highest-rated model plays for Week 5 against the spread.
  • Jacksonville has a really nice point differential (+38) after four games, but ranks first, in yards per point margin. This represents how points are related to yards gained and Jacksonville is way overperforming and a candidate for regression.
  • Jacksonville is also not used to the favorite role here. The last two times they were favored were two outright losses to Houston last season, and they've lost four in a row as a betting favorite and haven't won a game when favored since the 2019 season.
  • We'll grab this line while it's at the key number of 7 in a matchup where the Texans have played well recently.

Pick published: Oct 4 9:50am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 455

Player Prop

Zach Wilson Over 218.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 210 yards

Dolphins at Jets

Sun Oct 9 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Zach Wilson passes for more than 218 yards in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing model shows over 30 yards of value on Wilson's over here.
  • The point total in this game, 45.5, is slightly above average for the week, and this really low passing total is off line with the expected points in this game combined with the Jets pass-run profile.
  • The Jets have thrown the most passes in the NFL, and even in Wilson's return last week, he threw 36 passes in a game that was closer to situation-neutral compared to the first three weeks (where the Jets trailed by a lot in each game). 
  • Miami could be without starting corner Xavien Howard in addition to still missing Byron Jones, and if Howard plays he may not be 100%.
  • Miami is a blitz-heavy team who should bring pressure against Wilson, but that creates volatility and we look for there to be opportunities for big plays both ways in this game.

Pick published: Oct 7 12:29pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Spread

Giants +8.0 -110

Won: 27-22

Giants vs. Packers

Sun Oct 9 • 9:30am ET

More info

How it wins: The New York Giants win the game or lose by fewer than 8 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model pick against the spread for Week 5.
  • We were waiting to hear about QB Daniel Jones' status for the game on Sunday morning in London after he had an ankle injury last week, and backup Tyrod Taylor left the game with a concussion.
  • Now that it's confirmed QB Jones will start for the Giants we are moving it to the Staff Picks.
  • It's currently available at some books at the +8 for now, but is playable at +7.5 as well.

Pick published: Oct 7 3:38pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 451

Player Prop

Josh Allen Under 41.5 Rushing Yards -115

Lost: 42 yards

Steelers at Bills

Sun Oct 9 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Josh Allen rushes for fewer than 42 yards in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • Josh Allen's rushing production is correlated with the type of matchup he is facing, and he runs less when the Bills are a heavier favorite.
  • Since the start of 2021, in 13 games where Bills were favored by 6 or more, Allen averaged 5.7 rush attempts for 36.8 yards, while in 10 games where the spread was 4.5 or lower, he averaged 9.2 rush attempts and 61.3 yards.
  • Allen is coming off consecutive road games at Miami and Baltimore where he ran the ball 19 total times, and the Bills have a key showdown against Kansas City next week where they are likely to ask Allen to make lots of plays with his feet.
  • The Bills are favored by 14 points in this matchup with Pittsburgh, with QB Kenny Pickett making his first career start, and we project Buffalo to game plan fewer designed runs for Allen in this matchup and save him for higher leverage games.

Pick published: Oct 7 1:11pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Player Prop

Chase Claypool Under 32.5 Receiving Yards -120

Lost: 50 yards

Steelers at Bills

Sun Oct 9 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chase Claypool has fewer than 33 receiving yards in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • We have an Under lean on Pittsburgh's passing yards in this game, with Kenny Pickett making his first career start against the Bills defense, in a game where the Steelers are 14-point underdogs, and project Pittsburgh for 189 yards passing.
  • Chase Claypool has been falling behind other Pittsburgh receivers, over his last eight games played, he's averaging a woeful 4.2 yards per target.
  • When Pickett replaced Mitch Trubisky at QB for the start of the second half last week, Claypool was the target of his first pass attempt, but it was deflected off Claypool's hands and was intercepted.
  • Claypool was not targeted again, and finished with 0 receptions. Meanwhile, rookie George Pickens emerged with his first 100-yard receiving game, with most coming in the second half with Pickett at QB.
  • Claypool also saw his snaps fall from over 90% in the first three weeks to 73% in Week 4.
  • So we'll play against Claypool as the fourth option, and one that could be in decline, in a tough game environment at Buffalo.

Pick published: Oct 9 10:29am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Spread

Seahawks +4.5 -110

Won: 48-45

Seahawks at Lions

Sun Oct 2 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Seattle wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable pick according to our models at 56.2% cover odds.
  • Detroit also has some injury concerns to key offensive skill players. RB D'Andre Swift is likely to miss the game with a shoulder injury, and while WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has avoided a serious long-term ankle injury, that doesn't mean he will be playing this week, and his status is very much in doubt.
  • Detroit is 27th in both rushing yards allowed and rushing yards per carry allowed, a factor that could keep a team like Seattle, that wants to run the ball and not rely on passing constantly, in the game.
  • Seattle's pass D has been bad so far this year, but if they are catching Detroit without their two best playmakers healthy, they can compete.

Pick published: Sep 27 3:37pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 261

Spread

Patriots +10.5 -110

Won: 24-27

Patriots at Packers

Sun Oct 2 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The New England Patriots win the game or lose by fewer than 11 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model pick with 53% cover odds according to our Ensemble Forecast.
  • It's also a play against overreaction to the Mac Jones' injury. 
  • These two teams have very similar yardage profiles through three weeks, and Green Bay's offense has not been explosive. 
  • The primary difference in the Patriots' start has been a terrible tunover margin, where Jones had thrown five interceptions and the Patriots have eight overall, 31st in the NFL.
  • Belichick is 6-5 SU and 9-2 ATS as a dog of 7.5 or more since 2000, including an outright win in Jimmy Garoppolo's first start in Week 1 of 2016, with Tom Brady suspended.

Pick published: Sep 27 3:37pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 275

Player Prop

Baker Mayfield Over 204.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 197 yards

Cardinals at Panthers

Sun Oct 2 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baker Mayfield passes for more than 204 yards in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • Based on our player prop model using spread and over/under, we project Mayfield for 239.5 passing yards in this game, 34 yards of value.
  • Through three games, Mayfield has thrown only 81 passes and is completing a career-low 51.9 percent (career: 61.2)
  • The Carolina Panthers have also run only 51.3 plays per game (excluding sacks) so far, well below expectation through three weeks.
  • An examination of the 10 most similar teams since 2010 by pass plays and total plays run, scoring, and opponent total plays through three games shows that eight of the 10 went over this pass yard total in Week 4, and saw their total plays run move upward.
  • So we see some positive regression potential if the Panthers can just move closer to league average in plays run.
  • In addition, the Cardinals are dead last in Net Yards per Attempt allowed (8.0) after three games, so Mayfield can hit this number on increased efficiency in additon to increased volume.

Pick published: Sep 29 7:55pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Over/Under

Browns at Falcons Over 47.5 -110

Lost: 43 points

Sun Oct 2 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cleveland and Atlanta combine for more than 47 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our playable Over/Under picks according to our models for Week 4.
  • In addition, Browns DE Myles Garrett has been ruled out for this game following a Monday car accident.
  • The Browns were thin on defensive line in Week 3, with DE Jadeveon Clowney out (he is questionable as of now to play today) and are also without starting DT Taven Bryan today. 
  • All three Falcons games so far have had at least 50 points scored and Atlanta is giving up 27 points per game.
  • Given potential pass rush issues for Cleveland, we like this game to continue that trend, with the Browns able to move the ball against the Falcons D, but Atlanta's playmakers having time to generate big plays against a weakened pass rush without Garrett.

Pick published: Oct 2 8:38am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 269

Player Prop

Marcus Mariota Over 215.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 139 yards

Browns at Falcons

Sun Oct 2 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Marcus Mariota passes for more than 215 yards in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • We also added Cleveland/Atlanta Over and this is a correlated bet with that staff pick.
  • Even before our lean to the game total Over, though, our player prop model shows value on Mariota's passing yards, projecting him for 237.9 yards given the game total and spread.
  • With Browns star DE Myles Garrett now officially ruled out, we like Mariota to have more time in the pocket to make some plays downfield to weapons like WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts.
     

Pick published: Oct 2 8:55am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Darnell Mooney Over 35.5 Receiving Yards -120

Won: 94 yards

Bears at Giants

Sun Oct 2 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Darnell Mooney has more than 35 receiving yards in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • Darnell Mooney only has 27 receiving yards all season on 4 catches, driving this number down.
  • Mooney still has 25% of the Bears' targets, which is right on our preseason projection for his usage. 
  • The Bears are on pace for the lowest passing yards since 1978 right now, but we expect some positive regression in that category.
  • Our projection for Mooney is 46.5 yards in this game, about 11 yards of value. 
  • While we also show value on Fields very low Over of 146.5 yards, we see the better play is that the Bears are likely to make getting the ball to their best play-making WR, Mooney, a priority with how much they have under-utlized him so far.

Pick published: Oct 2 10:14am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Spread

Bengals -3.5 -110

Won: 27-15

Dolphins at Bengals

Thu Sep 29 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati Bengals win by more than 3 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • Our models do not have this as a playable spread, but we are making this a staff pick based on injury news and trying to grab value on a short rest week for both teams.
  • Miami QB Tua Tagoavailoa left the game briefly on Sunday after a hit, where there was speculation that it could be a head injury but the team said it was a back injury. (You be the judge.)
  • Tagoavailoa isn't practicing yet this week, and comments by head coach Mike McDaniel were curious at best, saying he was going to try to play, but also that he would be limited in practice and questionable if the game was on Sunday.
  • Several other key players are not practicing yet, though the coach said he thinks "most, if not all" will play.
  • Miami was also just out-gained by Buffalo significantly despite winning, so there is some value in playing against the 3-0 team that isn't as good as their record, with a lot of injury question marks.
  • We have already seen this line moving to 4 at a lot of books, so shop around for your best line.

Pick published: Sep 27 3:37pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 102

Spread

Jaguars +7.0 -107

Won: 38-10

Jaguars at Chargers

Sun Sep 25 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Jacksonville Jaguars win the game or lose by fewer than 7 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick (53.8%) according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • The Jaguars are coming off a 24-0 win over Indianapolis in Week 2, and looking far more competent this year under HC Doug Pederson compared to the Urban Meyer disaster a year ago.
  • Last year's first overall pick, QB Trevor Lawrence, is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt (after averaging 6.0 as a rookie) and has found a connection with new WR Christian Kirk.
  • Chargers QB Justin Herbert suffered fractured rib cartilage in the Thursday Week 2 game at Kansas City. While he could still play through the painful injury by Sunday, we'll grab this line at a touchdown for value against either a limited Herbert or backup QB Chase Daniel.

Pick published: Sep 20 10:23am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 479

Player Prop

Tua Tagovailoa Over 253.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 186 yards

Bills at Dolphins

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tua Tagoavailoa passes for more than 253 yards in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • Based on the current spread (-5) and 53.5 point total, our player prop model projects Tua for 279.5, 26 points of Over value.
  • Tagoavailoa has gone over his prop total in both of the first two weeks with WR Tyreek Hill now on the team and with new coach Mike McDaniel, and Miami has been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL through two weeks.
  • Buffalo has a lot of defensive injuries, and will be without starting S Micah Hyde and CB Dane Jackson, and could also be missing S Jordan Poyer on Sunday.
  • That thin secondary opens opportunity for big plays by Miami's receiving super duo of Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Pick published: Sep 23 1:15pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Carson Wentz Under 36.5 Pass Attempts -115

Lost: 43 attempts

Eagles at Commanders

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carson Wentz attempts fewer than 37 official pass attempts in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • So far this year, Wentz has attempted 87 pass attempts through two games, but our models show value on the Under here with Washington in the underdog role.
  • Wentz is projected for 32.5 pass attempts in our model, a value of 4 attempts. 
  • Washington ranks third in third-down conversions at 56%, behind only Buffalo and Philadelphia, a factor that has contributed to them running more than 10 more plays than their opponents in both games.
  • They also trailed Detroit by double digits starting in the late first quarter of Week 2 and chased the game at high attempts all day.
  • Teams have passed at a high rate against the Eagles so far while trailing, but the Eagles rate top 5 in pass efficiency D. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is allowing 6.2 yards per carry so far this year.
  • Washington is more likely to adopt a more balanced attack given those factors, and is also at risk of regression in third down rates and extending drives that increase pass attempts.

Pick published: Sep 23 1:24pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Over/Under

Eagles at Commanders Under 47.5 -107

Won: 32 points

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Philadelphia and Washington combine for fewer than 48 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable total pick according to our Ensemble Forecast Model, with 53.1% cover odds.
  • This pick is a correlated bet with the Carson Wentz pass attempts Under staff pick.
  • The matchup looks like one where the Commanders might adopt more of a run-pass balance approach given how explosive the Eagles offense is, combined with their strong pass defense but rush D that has given up big plays.
  • Both teams rank in the top 3 in third down conversion rate early in the year, an area of regression potential and value, where the scoring will go down if both teams see their third down rates regress toward league average.
  • Both are also in the top 10 in red zone TD rate, and Washington is tied for best in the league so far, scoring a TD on 6 of 6 drives that reached the opponent 20. That is unsustainable and an area of value potential on the total.

     

Pick published: Sep 25 10:19am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 476

Player Prop

Davante Adams Over 84.5 Receiving Yards -115

Lost: 36 yards

Raiders at Titans

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Davante Adams has more than 84 receiving yards in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on the injury to Las Vegas slot WR Hunter Renfrow, who will miss Week 3, as well as the illness status of RB Josh Jacobs.
  • Adams only had 2 catches last week, after a big Week 1 debut with the Raiders, so we are also playing on a bounce back and the team focusing on getting him the ball early.
  • With Renfrow out (tied for 2nd-most targets on team so far), that opens up more target opportunities and increases the odds of slot usage for Adams.
  • Last week, Bills WR Stefon Diggs also lit up this Titans secondary, which is missing multiple pass rushers.

Pick published: Sep 25 11:09am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Player Prop

Chase Edmonds Over 31.5 Rushing Yards -115

Lost: 21 yards

Bills at Dolphins

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chase Edmonds rushes for more than 31 yards in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • With the Bills' defense depleted and focused on stopping the explosive Miami WRs, there will be opportunities for Edmonds to make plays and also get rushing volume to keep the Bills' offense off the field.
  • Our projection is for 42.6 yards for Edmonds, more than 10 yards of value.
  • Edmonds has 17 rush attempts, leading Miami so far, but is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry through two weeks, well below his career 4.6 YPC, also providing some value on positive regression in his yards per rush against this prop.

Pick published: Sep 25 11:15am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Spread

Bengals -6.0 -114

Won: 27-12

Bengals at Jets

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Cincinnati Bengals win by more than 6 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest rated model pick against the spread on Sunday morning, at 55.3% cover odds.
  • This line has been moving up from 4.5 points earlier in the week.
  • We like the matchup of the Bengals WR against the Jets secondary, as the Jets haven't faced a high volume of passes so far because they have trailed most of the both games, but they rank in the bottom 5 in net yards allowed.
  • The Bengals WR duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should be a matchup problem, and the Bengals should have an opportunity for big plays.
  • Cincinnati's 0-2 start, and their loss last year in an upset at the Jets, should have them focused and ready to play aggressively in this game.

Pick published: Sep 25 11:20am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 465

Spread

Colts +6.5 -110

Won: 20-17

Chiefs at Colts

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Indianapolis Colts win the game or lose by fewer than 7 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Colts a 52.6% chance of covering this line.
  • The Chiefs are an extremely popular pick so far. In spread pool data from PoolGenius, 84% of the public is taking the Chiefs -6.5, easily the largest discrepancy so far this year, and an indication of public sentiment on this game.
  • So far this year, teams with >70% ATS pool pick popularity are 2-5 ATS.
  • Indianapolis is coming off getting shutout by the Jacksonville Jaguars, in a game where they were missing their top two wide receivers (Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce).
  • Since the start of the 2017 season, teams coming off getting shutout the week before are 19-9-3 ATS.
  • The Indianapolis passing game was horrific without Michael Pittman, but we are grabbing this on the likelihood that he is back for Week 3. Rookie Alec Pierce, who also missed the last game with a concussion, profiles as the deep threat for this offense.

Pick published: Sep 21 12:38pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 472

Spread

Panthers +3.0 -110

Won: 22-14

Saints at Panthers

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Carolina Panthers win the game or lose by fewer than 3 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our Decision Tree, Similar Games, and Predictive Ratings models. 
  • We want to jump on this line before it gets too pricey at the 3-point spread, or moves below a FG. Right now, most books have the juice heavier on taking the underdog, so shop around.
  • Carolina has lost two close games to start 0-2, but rank 3rd in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt allowed on defense.
  • Saints QB Jameis Winston was revealed to play on Sunday with four fractured vertebrae, and he took 6 sacks while also throwing 3 interceptions and averaging less than 6 yards per attempt on Sunday against Tampa Bay.
  • Winston was 1-for-7 with two interceptions on passes listed as "deep" in the play-by-play for Sunday's game. 
  • So we are playing on the Panthers' D and against Winston's health status and ability to make throws while playing through the back injury.
     

Pick published: Sep 20 10:07am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 468

Moneyline

Texans To Win +125

Lost: 20-23

Texans at Bears

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Houston Texans win the game in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest rated value against the Moneyline, according to the Ensemble Forecast model.
  • While neither of these teams have been very good on offense so far in 2022, and are among the bottom teams in the NFL, the Bears' passing offense has been downright putrid.
  • Chicago QB Justin Fields has taken a sack on over 15% of his dropbacks, and the Bears have totaled 153 net passing yards in two games. 
  • Given that the spread is under the 3 points currently, at 2.5, the better value is to just play the Texans to win outright in Texans' head coach Lovie Smith's return to Chicago, where he coached from 2004-2012. 

Pick published: Sep 20 9:53am ET, available at that time at PointsBet, DraftKings.

Rot# 477

Player Prop

Kirk Cousins Under 279.5 Passing Yards -115

Won: 221 yards

Vikings at Eagles

Mon Sep 19 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kirk Cousins passes for fewer than 280 yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • The Over/Under has been moving down in this game, from the 51.5 points earlier last week to now at 49.0 points.
  • As a result, our player prop model which uses both spread and total as inputs has Kirk Cousins down to 255.2 passing yards, over 24 yards of value on the Under. 
  • Cousins passed for 277 yards in Week 1.
  • So far this year, when our model is 20 or more yards Under the passing yard prop line, QBs are 5-2 on the Under, and official Staff Picks on game pass yards props are 2-1 in 2022. 

Pick published: Sep 19 1:50pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Player Prop

Stefon Diggs Over 74.5 Receiving Yards -110

Won: 148 yards

Titans at Bills

Mon Sep 19 • 7:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Stefon Diggs has at least 75 receiving yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • We show slight value on Diggs at this prop line in a neutral situation with all Bills WR active.
  • However, news came out yesterday that fellow starting WR Gabe Davis injured his ankle in practice on Saturday, and Mike Garofolo of NFL Network described him as "more on the doubtful side of questionable."
  • Our projected target share for Davis on the year is 19.7%, and the betting market has him at about 19% of Allen's pass yard prop right now, so Davis being out or limited opens up a bigger target share opportunity for Diggs in this game.
  • So we will grab this line before news is finalized on Davis, since the price is fine even if Davis plays with the injury, but will be great value if he is out.
  • (You can also play the Gabe Davis yardage prop Under, but if he is inactive that becomes a No Bet and the upside isn't there as much as a result).

     

Pick published: Sep 19 1:23pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Spread

Falcons +10.5 -107

Won: 27-31

Falcons at Rams

Sun Sep 18 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Falcons lose by fewer than 11 points or beat the Rams by any score in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast Model give the Falcons a 53.5% chance of covering the spread.
  • The Rams really struggled on the offensive line in the season opener, as Stafford was sacked seven times (in 48 drop backs) and they averaged less than three yards per carry.
  • There are also concerns about the offense, receiver depth, and running back situation, for a team laying so many points.
  • Atlanta blew a late 26-10 lead against New Orleans, but was a pleasant surprise in Week 1.
  • The Falcons gained over 400 yards against the Saints defense, and the defense also frustrated the Saints for three quarters, sacking Jameis Winston four times. Atlanta lost the game by a point but won first downs 26 to 18.
  • Given all the Matthew Stafford offseason elbow news, the way the Rams looked on offense in the opener, and the Falcons showing signs of life, we are adding this early pick above the key number of 10 points.

Pick published: Sep 13 4:30pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 277

Spread

Patriots -1.0 -110

Won: 17-14

Patriots at Steelers

Sun Sep 18 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Patriots beat the Steelers by at least 2 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast Model gives New England a 55.2% chance of covering the spread.
  • New England is coming off a loss in the opener, and Belichick is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in Week 2 coming off an opening loss.
  • Pittsburgh was atrocious on offense last week, but got the win over Cincinnati thanks to a +5 turnover margin and several kicking miscues.
  • The Steelers also lost 2021 Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt to a torn pectoral muscle.

Pick published: Sep 13 4:30pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 275

Spread

Jets +6.0 -110

Won: 31-30

Jets at Browns

Sun Sep 18 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Jets lose by fewer than 6 points or beat the Browns by any score in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast Model gives the Jets a 54.9% chance of covering the spread.
  • The Jets lost by 15 to the Ravens but out-gained Baltimore by over 100 yards in the opener, and were ahead in yards even before the late fourth quarter garbage time.
  • They were done in by a couple of big passing plays from Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, but this week's opponent with QB Jacoby Brissett lacks a potent passing game.
  • The Browns averaged 4.3 yards per pass attempt in the win at Carolina, a year after Brissett averaged a woeful 5.7 yards per attempt as a replacement starter in Miami.
  • We'll play against the favorite with a bad passing attack that likes to grind things out, and on the team that performed better in Week 1 than the score indicates.

Pick published: Sep 13 4:30pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 265

Player Prop

Joe Burrow Under 267.5 Passing Yards -115

Won: 199 yards

Bengals at Cowboys

Sun Sep 18 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Joe Burrow passes for fewer than 268 yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our projected passing yards for Burrow is 239.4, about 28 yards of Under value, the largest passing Under compared to our model projections for Week 2.
  • Burrow threw 53 pass attempts last week, and for over 300 yards, but that was in a game where the Bengals trailed all game and were chasing to catch up.
  • He also threw four interceptions, and we anticipate that the Bengals may be a little more conservative today coming off those interceptions and playing an opponent in Dallas, who is starting a backup quarterback.

Pick published: Sep 18 8:53am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

DJ Moore Over 58.5 Receiving Yards -110

Lost: 43 yards

Panthers at Giants

Sun Sep 18 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: D.J. Moore has at least 59 receiving yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our models have both sides projected for over the passing prop numbers in this game, but see the biggest individual value on Moore's Over for yards.
  • We project Moore for 71.2 receiving yards, a value of 12.7 yards over the prop.
  • Moore had only 43 yards on 3 catches (6 targets) last week as fellow WR Robbie Anderson had the biggest game and caught a 75-yard bomb from new QB Baker Mayfield.
  • However, Moore is one of the best young receivers in the game, and has had 59 or more receiving yards in 31 of 48 games started since the start of the 2019 season, so this number seems a little low and maybe an (over)reaction to one game with Mayfield at QB.

Pick published: Sep 18 8:55am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Jonathan Taylor Over 16.5 Receiving Yards -125

Lost: 9 yards

Colts at Jaguars

Sun Sep 18 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jonathan Taylor has at least 17 receiving yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Taylor had 14 receiving yards last week, but did have four receptions and seven total targets in the passing game.
  • Washington running backs (the team that played Jacksonville last week) had 10 combined catches for 92 receiving yards.
  • With star WR Michael Pittman out, it's not clear which other WRs will see the biggest target opportunities, but one projectable thing is that Taylor will be on the field for a lot of snaps, and more targets should be funneled to the backs with Pittman not playing.

 

Pick published: Sep 18 8:56am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Khalil Herbert Over 23.5 Rushing Yards -115

Won: 38 yards

Bears at Packers

Sun Sep 18 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Khalil Herbert rushes for at least 24 yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Herbert had 9 rush attempts to 17 for David Montgomery, but Herbert was more explosive, leading the Bears with 45 rush yards to Montgomery's 26 in Week 1.
  • Herbert also had a higher YPC than Montgomery last year (4.2 to 3.8) as a rookie.
  • There were plenty of rumblings in the offseason about Herbert gaining a bigger role, with the Bears having a new coaching staff, and Montgomery was even taking special teams reps.
  • Based on our preseason projection percentages for the Bears' backfield and the projected team yards in this game, we project Herbert for 34.5 rush yards, an 11-yard value.
  • There's also a real possibility that Herbert continues to add more rushing share and close the gap with Montgomery on opportunities coming off last week's performance.

 

Pick published: Sep 18 8:58am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Over/Under

Bengals at Cowboys Under 42.0 -110

Won: 37 points

Sun Sep 18 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Bengals and Cowboys combine for fewer than 42 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast Model gives this game a 54.8% chance of going Under, the largest Under value of Week 2.
  • This is a correlated bet with our Joe Burrow Under on Passing Yards in the player props.
  • Coming off a week with four interceptions, we project Cincinnati to be more balanced and conservative, especially playing against Dallas starting Cooper Rush at QB.
  • This line has already been moving at some books this morning, with about half showing the total now at 41.5 points.

Pick published: Sep 18 9:20am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 282

Over/Under

Buccaneers at Saints Under 44.0 -107

Won: 30 points

Sun Sep 18 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Bucs and Saints combine for fewer than 44 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast Model gives this game a 54.3% chance of going Under.
  • In addition, we are adding this as a staff pick based on the player news.
  • Saints RB Alvin Kamara and Bucs WR Chris Godwin are both out. Bucs WR Julio Jones is a game-time decision. And while Bucs WR Mike Evans, WR Russell Gage, and RB Leonard Fournette are all expected to play, they have all been on the injury report and missed practices this week.

Pick published: Sep 18 9:22am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 272

Player Prop

Mike Williams Over 66.5 Receiving Yards -120

Won: 113 Yards

Chargers at Chiefs

Thu Sep 15 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Mike Williams has at least 67 receiving yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Chargers WR Mike Williams is coming off a disappointing 2 catches for 10 yards in the season opener.
  • Williams has gone over 67 receiving yards in 5 of the last 8 matchups with KC, including a 7 catch, 122 yard, 2 TD game in the first contest of 2021.
  • Williams' partner, WR Keenan Allen, is missing this game with a hamstring injury, opening up more target opportunities for Williams.
  • Chiefs rookie starting CB Trent McDuffie was just placed on the IR with a hamstring injury suffered in Week 1, impacting the Chiefs' secondary.
  • We have a slight lean on the Chargers' passing total going over in this one, but see the biggest value on Williams, who we project for 77.5 receiving yards with Allen out.

Pick published: Sep 15 2:45pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Spread

Steelers +6.5 -110

Won: 23-20

Steelers at Bengals

Sun Sep 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Steelers lose by fewer than 7 points or beat the Bengals by any score in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Steelers a 56% chance of covering the spread.
  • The Steelers-Bengals rivalry is one that has shown no home field advantage over a lengthy period of time. Since 2002, the home team is only 17-25 SU and 17-24-1 ATS in this series.
  • Pittsburgh is 18-4 SU and 15-6-1 over the last 20 years in Cincinnati, and is 6-2 SU as a road dog over that time period.

Pick published: Sep 1 5:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet.

Rot# 461

Spread

Giants +5.5 -110

Won: 21-20

Giants at Titans

Sun Sep 11 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Giants lose by fewer than 6 points or beat the Titans by any score in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Giants a 55% chance of covering the spread.
  • The Giants were one of our preseason over picks in our Preseason Staff Picks, while the Titans have a lot of negative red flag factors entering the season.
  • New York was substantially worse at the end of last season when QB Daniel Jones was out injured, and the team made what looks like a substantial coaching upgrade in firing Joe Judge and hiring former Bills OC Brian Daboll.
  • Tennessee overachieved expectations a year ago, going 12-5 with a point differential more in line with a 10-7 team.
  • The Titans also traded away star WR A.J. Brown this offseason, and has major turnover on offense.
  • On September 1st, DE Harold Landry, who led the team in sacks in 2021, tore his ACL and will now miss the rest of the season, adding a late impact to the team that they haven't been able to prepare for or address in the offseason.

Pick published: Sep 1 5:00pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 477

Spread

Eagles -4.5 -114

Lost: 38-35

Eagles at Lions

Sun Sep 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Eagles beat the Lions by at least 5 points in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This line is moving and ranges between 4.5 to 5.5 at various books, and is also playable at -5.Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Eagles a 55% chance of covering the spread.
  • This line has been moving from the 3.5-point spread at the start of the week.
  • Lions pro bowl center Frank Ragnow is questionable with a groin injury, starting RG Tommy Kraemer hasn?t practiced all week with a back injury, and G Halapoulivaati Vaitai (25 starts the last two years) is starting the year on PUP, so Detroit could have significant interior line issues going against Philadelphia?s defense.

Pick published: Sep 10 1:30pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 465

Player Prop

Baker Mayfield Over 31.5 Pass Attempts -105

Lost: 27 Attempts

Browns at Panthers

Sun Sep 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baker Mayfield has at least 32 pass attempts in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • You can also get 30.5 (-130) at DraftKings.
  • Our prop model for pass attempts, based on spread/total and our team stat projections, is for 35.4 pass attempts for Mayfield.
  • In seven games last year with Christian McCaffrey playing, the Panthers exceeded 32 pass attempts in five of them, including three wins. The two lowest pass attempt games came with Cam Newton at QB.
  • Baker Mayfield is playing his former team, and we anticipate that getting a healthy Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore involved in the short passing game will be a big part of the gameplay.
  • We show value on passing yards and completions as well, but the attempts prop is the highest value play here.

Pick published: Sep 10 1:56pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Player Prop

Elijah Moore Over 52.5 Receiving Yards -115

Lost: 49 Yards

Ravens at Jets

Sun Sep 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Elijah Moore has at least 53 receiving yards in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • Elijah Moore is a second-year breakout that we project as a fringe top 25 WR this year.
  • In his last 6 games played last year, he averaged 65.3 receiving yards and scored 5 touchdowns, before missing the final five weeks of the season.
  • In the only game where Joe Flacco started last year, Moore had a career-high 8 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown.

Pick published: Sep 10 1:57pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Moneyline

Vikings To Win -104

Won: 23-7

Packers at Vikings

Sun Sep 11 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Vikings beat the Packers in Week 1.

Staff notes:

Pick published: Sep 11 7:31am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 476

Player Prop

Tua Tagovailoa Over 231.5 Passing Yards -115

Won: 270 Yards

Patriots at Dolphins

Sun Sep 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tua Tagovailoa passes for at least 232 yards in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing yards model based on spread/total/team projection is for 262.8 passing yards.
  • This is the largest difference between our model and the offered lines for all of Week 1, over 31 yards of value.
  • It comes down to this: either Miami is mis-priced as a favorite of 3.5 points in a game with a 46 point total, and 24.75 expected points, or this prop is too conservative.
  • Tua did pass for less than 210 yards in both games against New England last year, at low pass attempt volume, and New England was top 4 in most passing defense categories a year ago.
  • Miami added WR Tyreek Hill in the offseason, and is slightly ahead of New England in the futures markets, and is playing this game at home, so in this case, we'll go with the more robust team spread and totals market, versus a small sample of games and results from last year.

Pick published: Sep 11 7:32am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Mike Evans Over 66.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 71 yards

Buccaneers at Cowboys

Sun Sep 11 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Mike Evans has at least 67 receiving yards in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • We are projecting Mike Evans for 78 yards in the Sunday Night Football game.
  • At least early in the season, Evans should see a larger target share than normal because of Tampa Bay's injury situation.
  • Rob Gronkowski is no longer playing, Chris Godwin is expected to be active but on a snap count in his first game back from a December ACL tear, and WR Russell Gage missed multiple weeks with a hamstring injury and is questionable to play on Sunday night as well.
  • Evans is the one established receiver who has worked with Brady in the past and should see a full complement of snaps.

Pick published: Sep 11 7:34am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Player Prop

Matthew Stafford Over 270.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 240 Yards

Bills at Rams

Thu Sep 8 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Matthew Stafford passes for at least 271 yards in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast model has the Rams/Bills Over 52.0 as a playable pick, so there's value on a higher scoring game.
  • Our player prop passing model, which utilizes the spread and total, and also our team stat projections, projects Stafford for 284.1 yards, about 14 yards of value.
  • The Bills led the NFL in net passing yards allowed last season and feasted on poor quarterbacks, but in their five highest Over/Under games (49.0 or higher) all five went over.
  • Star cornerback Tre'Davious White missed the last eight games of last year (including the playoffs) and is starting on the PUP list.
  • Patrick Mahomes (378 passing yards) and Tom Brady (363 passing yards), the two other star quarterbacks Buffalo has faced recently, both had big games against the Bills without White.

Pick published: Sep 7 6:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Player Prop

Cooper Kupp Over 89.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 128 Yards

Bills at Rams

Thu Sep 8 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cooper Kupp has at least 90 receiving yards in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This is a correlated bet with the Stafford passing prop, for a lot of the same reasons offered above.
  • In addition, the top wide receivers paired with those elite passers had big games against the Bills, with Tyreek Hill, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans all going for at least 90 yards.
  • Further, Rams third wide receiver Van Jefferson has been ruled out for the game, and the Rams' running backs (Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson) have been nursing injuries through the preseason, so we expect a more concentrated passing attack on Kupp, Allen Robinson, and tight end Tyler Higbee in this game.
  • Kupp incredibly had 19 games last year (out of 21 total including the playoffs) where he reached 90 or more receiving yards, in his first year with Stafford at QB.

Pick published: Sep 7 6:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.