College Basketball Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable model Over/Under for the Final Four.
• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• For March, model Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher are 56.2% (41-32-1).
• Purdue's performance versus top interior defenses versus all others shows noticeable splits. They are 5-8 on Overs when the opponent holds teams to 47% or under on two-point attempts for the year, and 18-7 overs in all other games. Connecticut is 2nd in the nation at 43% two-point defense, the best team that Purdue has played in that regard.
• Edey's height also matches up with Donovan Clingan at center, and both could neutralize the offensive advantages that shooters have getting open when defenses typically have to collapse more.

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable model Over/Under for the Final Four.
• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• For March, model Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher are 55.6% (40-32-1).
• Some model factors in this one include Purdue's two-point percentage defense and low foul rate.
• NC State's defensive numbers have been improved during their end-of-season run. While some of that has been poor opponent three-point shooting, they have also had better interior defense (47% for last eight wins, compared to just over 50% before) and defensive rebounding. 

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our roster trend and lineup analysis.
• Duke is a little better than their raw rating when looking at games with all five starters healthy, and they've answered the concerns after the NC State ACC loss with strong tournament performances (and that loss doesn't look nearly as bad in light of NC State's performance since.)
• Houston's raw rating is a little inflated by cupcake blowouts, and they are also still hampered by depth issue, particularly inside, which could be a factor against Duke's size. 
• Houston is 4-12 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread, compared to 13-5-2 ATS in all other games.

Staff notes:

• This prop is available at Caesars Sportsbook under "Future Bets" and "Total Big 12 Tournament Wins."
• Our average projection for Big 12 total wins is 12.75, providing some value on the Under here.
• We have often seen recently that the conferences that get the most high seeds tend to underperform expectations, as there could be an effect where variance from games in November and December are causing these conferences to be overvalued.
• Over the last three tournaments, six different conferences have had at least six teams seeded No. 8 or better in the NCAA Tournament. Those conferences averaged 8.2 wins in the NCAA Tournament, with none higher than 11 wins, despite having a lot of top seeds expected to advance far.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our lineup and roster trend analysis.
• Clemson is better than their raw rating with the current lineup fully healthy. Specifically, in games with Jack Clark healthy and in the starting lineup with the other four starters, Clemson averaged a Game Score of +18.4 (15 games) versus +11.1 (19 games) in all others. 
• Clemson is 10-5 ATS with Clark as a starter and 9-9-1 when he is not.
• Arizona's rating, meanwhile, is a little inflated by cupcake blowouts, as their average Game Score was +34.7 in the five easiest games on their schedule, +21.5 in all others, so just excluding those cupcake games drops the average rating by nearly two points.
• Arizona plays at a fast pace and gets on the offensive boards at a high rate, but Clemson has performed well against the fastest-paced offenses they have faced, who also have high Offensive Rebound rates, beating TCU outright in December as a dog, beating Alabama outright in November as a dog, and beating New Mexico by over 20 as a dog in the first round.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on lineup and game trends.
• Yale is coming off the outright win against Auburn, where a lot of extreme things happened for them. Auburn had a starter ejected early in the game, and Yale had the highest FT rate of any game all year, at 59.6% FTA/FGA ratio (Their season average was 27.8%, 311th in D1). 
• Yale also hit 45% from three, their fourth best shooting performance of the year (35% average), while winning despite Auburn shooting over 60% on two-point attempts.
• Going back to 2011, teams seeded No. 13 or lower who won in the First Round are 9-16 ATS in the Second Round. However, those that did it despite the three-point shooting being 31% or lower went 4-4 ATS (including Princeton last year) while everyone else went 5-12 ATS.
• So we will play against Yale's short term shooting performance and extreme outlier FTA rate from the First Round. 

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our roster and lineup trend analysis.
• We will continue to ride the "Texas A&M with Manny Obaseki" train here. Since Obaseki was inserted as a starter and the Aggies went to a three-guard lineup, the transformation has been remarkable. Texas A&M's average Game Score over that span is +21.9 (for reference, that's in the range of the top No. 1 seeds and their average over the full season). A team who was among the worst shooting teams in the country has been 39% from three over the last seven, while adding in their best outside shooter as a starter, and also a player who can dribble drive and open up opportunities for the other guards.
• Obaseki has averaged 16.8 points per game as a starter, while the team has averaged 85.1 points per game in his starts.
• A&M has had so many different lineups and lineup shifts that we see value, as the market is still tied to the Texas A&M overall numbers and season averages, and this team is noticeably different.  As one clear example, A&M will likely have three different starters than the first matchup in December (a 4-point Houston win). 
• Houston's rating is also slightly inflated by their ability to blow out much weaker opponents. In games with a spread of less than 10 points, they are 4-11 ATS this year (all as favorites), and are 7-11 ATS in road/neutral situations. 

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on roster trends as well as performance trends from past NCAA Tournaments.
• Oakland beat Kentucky 80-76 in a game they hit 48% from three and only 34% of their two-point attempts.
• Going back to 2011, there have been 24 different upsets by a No. 13 seed or lower, and there is a decent negative correlation between three-point shooting in the First Round, and performance compared to the spread in the next games.
• Overall, these lower seeds are only 9-15 ATS in the Second Round, but those who won while making 31% or fewer of their three-pointers went 4-4 ATS in the next game, while everyone else is 5-11 ATS.
• The NC State win over Texas Tech (by 13) provided another data point that this team is playing much better down the stretch, putting up five straight great performances. Further, in all games with Mohamed Diarra starting and DJ Horne playing, the team has an average rating of +13.5, versus +7.5 in all other games.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our roster trend and lineup analysis.
• Our adjusted tournament ratings, our raw predictive ratings, and other sites like Ken Pomeroy all have Colorado rated higher.
• Colorado's performance recently has improved, and they are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games, all in road/neutral situations, and the Pac-12 teams looked good on the first day of tournament action, opening the possibility that the conference teams are a bit undervalued looking at full season numbers.
• Florida just lost center Micah Handgloten to a broken leg on Sunday in the SEC title game. While they do have depth inside, the 7-footer is their best offensive rebounder, for a team that ranks 7th nationally in offensive rebound rate. Meanwhile, Colorado is 29th in def rebound rate, and with Handgloten out may be able to neutralize one of Florida's big strengths.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on our roster and lineup trends.
• UAB is playing substantially better with their current lineup and minute distribution.
• Since mid-January, when the team demoted guard Tony Toney, the least efficient player on offense in the rotation, they have been substantially better. Average game rating 0.0 in 16 games before, +8.9 since in 18 games.
• Christian Coleman, who has a great story, growing 8 inches after high school while working at WalMart, and taking a long route to D1 through NAIA and JUCO, has emerged at the end of his first year at UAB. Over the last five games, Walker has averaged 15.6 points a game, UAB's average Game Score is +16.4, and Walker was inserted in the lineup for all three wins in the American tourney.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our lineup and roster trend analysis and matchup analysis.
• Our adjustments after lineup reviews have Dayton as the slight favorite here by a point, while the betting line is the other way, with Nevada typically favored by -1 to -1.5 on the spread, and Dayton a small +number on the moneyline. We've posted the best number at US books, the second-best being +102 at DK, so shop around.
• We also like some of the matchup factors, including this one: Nevada is 3rd in the nation at FTA to FGA rate, at 46%, so they rely on getting to the foul line for a bigger portion of their offense. Dayton is 3rd in the nation on defense, only allowing 22% FTA to FGA rate.
• Add in that in these NCAA Tournament games, they might be officiated a little looser than some conferences are used to, and we like the team that doesn't foul, and forces long possessions defensively, against a team reliant on getting to the line. The most similar game last year was the 7/10 game between Texas A&M (45% FTA/FGA) against Penn State (26% FTA/FGA allowed), a game that Penn State won comfortably by 17 as a dog.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on roster trend analysis.
• Kent State has played better with their current lineup, and has put together two of their best performances in the MAC tournament.
• Akron has been struggling on offense. Their overall rating over the last six games has been lower, even though opponents have shot under 30% from three in the last 4 and 5 of the last 6. The issue is turnovers and overall offensive efficiency.
• Kent State ranks inside the top 100 in turnover rate, and we'll play the underdog who is peaking against a team that could be vulnerable and struggling on offense.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on roster trend analysis.
• Alabama's rating is a little inflated by being able to beat up on really bad teams, and their average rating against top competition is lower.
• Florida plays at pace like Alabama, and has had success in both games against the Tide in the regular season, winning by 18 in Gainesville and losing in OT at Alabama (and covering) in a game where they had a 9-point lead with six minutes left.
• So we will continue to fade this Alabama defense, which ranks outside the top 100 in efficiency, when getting points against them.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on roster trend analysis.
• Both teams are coming off OT wins in the quarterfinals, Utah State's margin ended up being 12 points in OT, against a depleted Fresno State team, but it was a much worse performance than San Diego State against host UNLV.
• Utah State was without starting freshman guard Mason Falslev, who missed the quarterfinal against Fresno State, and based on the coach's comments yesterday, is not likely to be ready a day later.

Staff notes:

• This is our top model pick for Thursday in CBB.
• Some of the model factors being picked up are related to Western Michigan's low rate of turnovers forced versus turnovers committed, and Ohio's advantage there.
• Ohio is 11-2 ATS against teams ranked outside the top 200 in offensive turnover rate, and only 5-12 against all others.
• Western Michigan is ranked 321st nationally in offensive turnover rate.
• Western Michigan did upset Ohio by 2 at home in their only meeting this year, one of the two non-covers for Ohio against poor turnover teams, but early foul trouble and an outside shooting percentage advantage actually negated the turnover advantage Ohio had (+8), and Ohio did almost come back from a 10-point deficit late with their ability to create pressure.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our lineup analysis and trends.
• Both teams are playing really well right now, but we show value on Texas Tech being better than perception based on recent lineup performance. Tech has overcome injuries, and the loss of Warren Washington (who has missed 4 straight and 6 of last 7) has resulted in a big minutes increase for sophomore Robert Jennings, who has responded with strong offensive rebound numbers.
• Over the last 10 games, Tech has an average Game Score of +15.4 (three points better than all other games) and three of their best performances of the year have come in the last three games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
• We also show slight value on this line in our adjust lineup spreads.
• Michigan State is 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS against teams in the top 50 at avoiding turnovers, and 16-7-1 ATS against all others. Minnesota ranks outside the top 200 in that category.
   

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on roster trend analysis, as these two teams have gone in the complete opposite direction over the last month.
• In my review notes, I wrote "has this Michigan team given up?" and it's a fair question in looking at their season. After a 5-5 ATS start, they are a woeful 3-18 ATS. 12 of the last 13 losses are by double digits, and the last 3 losses are by 30, 23, and then by 15 at home to Nebraska on Senior Night, in a game where they allowed Nebraska to shoot 72% on two-point attempts.
• Since January 20th, the average Michigan Game Score is -2.1, compared to +8.2 for all previous games, a steep drop of more than 10 points that is mostly not due to injury.
• Olivier Nkamhoua was lost for the season four games ago, and provides the best defender, and with him out, the two-point defense has been pretty bad.
• Penn State, meanwhile is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 under first year coach Mike Rhoades, and that run corresponds with point guard Kanye Clary being hurt, and then being dismissed from the team after returning as a backup. Ace Baldwin slid over to the point guard role full-time without Clary and the team has thrived.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick, and also a pick based on our roster trend analysis.
• These are two teams going in the opposite directions, and USC just won at Washington two weeks ago as part of their improved stretch. Washington just fired head coach Mike Hopkins at the conclusion of the regular season.
• With the current optimal starting lineup, USC is 10-4 ATS with an average game rating of +15.6 and is coming off an outright win over Arizona. They are 5-12 ATS with different lineups this year.

Staff notes:

• Charleston is the No. 1 seed and has the shortest odds to win the Coastal Athletic, and we still see value taking into account their current form.
• If you exclude the first four games of the year, when Charleston got off to a poor start, Charleston's average Game Score is +5.9, a +1.7 point improvement over the full season rating.
• Looking at the most similar games by lineup/minute usage, Charleston's average is +6.9, nearly 3 points better than the full season average.
• Charleston enters the CAA Tournament on a nine-game win streak and playing their best basketball of the year, and over the final four games they have won by an average of 17 points and covered the spread in all, by an average of 11 points.
• After running the CAA Conference simulations with Charleston's rating being about two points better than the season average, they win the tournament 36% of the time, providing value at the current line. (We would play this down to about +200).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable pick based on our lineup and roster trend analysis.
• East Tennessee State is a little better than their raw power rating with the current lineup. They performed worse when starter Karon Boyd was out, as they have limited depth and the players that played more minutes in his place were inefficient underclassmen.
• Since Boyd's return in late January, ETSU's average Game Score has been +0.9, versus -3.5 for all previous games. Three of their best Game Scores have come in the last two weeks, with two coming in the conference tournament.
• Samford's A.J. Staton-McCray, the team's leading defensive rebounder from the wing position, missed several games and has not started and played only 21 minutes off the bench in the last two tournament games. Samford rates poorly in defensive rebounding, and that's ETSU's strength (24th nationally, with Boyd being a big factor). So if Staton-McCray is limited again, the underdog ETSU Bucs could have a rebounding edge to stay in the game.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Houston is a 34% chance to win the Big 12 regular season.
• Houston has started 1-2 in conference with two consecutive road losses at top quality opponents, after starting the year 14-0, so we are getting a little dip here.
• The Big 12 is the toughest conference this year, and our projection is that even the best teams will finish with around 5-6 conference losses.
• We are getting line value specifically at FanDuel that we want to grab at the +340 price (FanDuel has Kansas as the favorite at +220). We show little value at other books, where the price is +175 at Caesars and +200 at BetMGM.

Staff notes:

• This is value we see based on the first night of results in college basketball, and this futures market not shifting noticeably.
• Purdue won their first game by 53 points over Samford, more than doubling them up, and while people may have a tendency to lump all these mid-majors together, Samford is not a bottom of D1 team, ranking inside our top 200, and finishing in a tie for first place last year in the Southern Conference.
• Meanwhile, Michigan State, who had our second-highest odds to win the Big Ten in the preseason, lost at home to James Madision in the season opener, dropping down from No. 5 to No. 20 in our power ratings. Michigan State was being hyped up in markets and polls, but hasn't finished above a No. 7 seed in three straight years entering this one, and there's a possibility that they were just overvalued.
• After these shifts, we project Purdue, who is the No. 1 team in our power ratings, to have over a 50% chance of winning the Big Ten regular season title, at odds where the break-even is 36.4%.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our lineup analysis and roster trends.
• USC has been substantially better with their preferred starting five. They have now gone 9-4 ATS with their best starting lineup, with a power rating of +14.4 in those games, versus 5-12 with a +2.0 power rating in all others.
• Over their last six, after star freshman point guard Isaiah Collier has returnd to the lineup, they have gone 4-2 with the only two losses coming in double OT (at Colorado) and by 3 at Washington State in a game they led throughout.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on our lineup and roster trend analysis.
• Connecticut is better than their full season rating if you exclude earlier games missed by Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan, and they should be at full strength today.
• Providence meanwhile has been a little worse than the full season rating without Bryce Hopkins.
• In the earlier meeting, Connecticut won by 9 even though they shot 4-of-23 from beyond the arc (Providence was 4-of-18), and Providence's two best players, Carter and Oduro, both scored 20 points.
• Connecticut's depth should be too much for Providence, and we would put this one at about 2.5 points higher based on the current lineups.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model pick for both spread and Moneyline (at -218) for Saturday, and you could play either.
• So far this year, our top-rated model spread picks are 53% and our top-rated model plays are 30-24 for +24.0 units.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our roster and lineup trend analysis.
• No team has been as impacted by injuries as much as Arkansas, as 13 different players have started at least one game and they have used countless lineup combinations, and that explains in part their disappointing season (and low overall power rating).
• But they have been noticeably better in the last 6 games, with the lineup of Battle/Mark/Ellis/Lawson + either Davis or Brazile (returning from injury and 7 missed games in a row).
• In games where 5 of those 6 start, they are at +9.0 Game Score for season, and only +2.1 in all other games.
• Meanwhile, Alabama is going the opposite direction, their defensive numbers have collapsed, and their rating is also inflated by some early season blowouts of their weakest opponents.
• Alabama should have Latrell Wrightsell, who played 8 minutes last game, back, but even with him Alabama doesn't rate as highly in looking at similar games with their projected lineup.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Friday in CBB, and also a play we like based on our review of the lineup trends.
• The current spread matches our full season numbers for these teams, but Elon lost starting point guard Rob Higgins and he has been out 7 straight games. Their worst Game rating was in the final regular season game, and also the 2nd and 3rd worst are over the last month and a half.
• Hampton's game results have been a little better with the current lineup from the last few games, so we think there's some value in these two teams being a lot closer in current rating.

Staff notes:

• Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
• At the time of posting, our models currently have this as a strong play up to +139.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Wednesday.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Sunday, and also a play based on our With or Without You analysis of player lineups and trends.
• Looking only at the top half of games where Belmont's lineup/minutes distribution was most similar to the most recent games, Belmont's average Game Score is +7.4, versus +1.7 across all games.
• Those similar games exclude games where Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Cade Tyson missed games, and where Isaiah Walker was starting and playing more minutes.
• With the currrent lineup over the last 7 games (the only time all year that lineup has been used), Belmont is 6-1 ATS and the last 5 wins have all come by 14 or more points outright.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on our "With Or Without You" lineup analysis and review of teams.
• St. Mary's is going for an undefeated WCC regular season, after beating Gonzaga by 2 on the road earlier this year, in a game where the Zags went only 3 of 14 beyond the arc, and still led all game until inside the final 4 minutes.
• Gonzaga has been about 4 points better since they made a lineup switch to Ben Gregg over inefficient Dusty Stromer in the starting lineup in mid-January.
• St. Mary's lost starter Joshua Jefferson, the best defensive rebounder, for the season three games ago. While they have been able to handle weaker opponents without him, this is not a deep team and this type of matchup is more likely to be impacted by his absence.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and studying the teams.
• USC has been a disappointment this year after having high preseason expectations. They have also battled a lot of injuries and lineup changes. When the preferred starting lineup of Collier/Ellis/Johnson/Rodman/Morgan have all started, USC is 8-3 ATS with an average rating of +14.3, and when they have started any other lineup, they are 5-12 ATS with an average rating of only +2.0.
• USC has had this lineup for the last four games, tied for the longest such stretch with the same starters, and have beat Utah, lost to Colorado and failed to cover by only a point, then beat UCLA as a road dog and just lost by 3 at Washington State as +8 dog, after leading all game, having a 9-point lead with 10 minutes left, and never trailing by more than 4 all game.
• So we think we are getting value on a USC team that is better with the current lineup healthy finally, with the power rating in line with their full season average across all lineups.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Friday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Tuesday, rated at over 59%, making it the highest-rated model play of the last seven days. 

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick for Sunday in CBB.
• Green Bay's best player, Noah Reynolds, missed Friday's game against IPFW, where they had their worst performance of the year and lost by 26 as a 2-point favorite. (He also missed the first match against Youngstown, when Green Bay pulled a big upset as an 11.5-point dog).
• Playable picks on road favorites so far this year are 169-141-4 ATS (54.5%). 

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
• Playable picks on road favorites so far this year are 166-137-4 ATS (54.7%). 

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Friday in CBB.
• Saint Peter's is 12-4 ATS in games where Corey Washington, the team's most efficient offensive player, plays, and only 2-5 ATS without him. They have covered the last two games by 13 points each since his return from a 5-game absence.
• Saint Peter's has an average power rating of -0.5 in games with Washington and -10.6 without him.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Thursday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday, and the current FanDuel line of 144.5 is offering a full point of value relative to our consensus line.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is currently our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday. The FanDuel line of 148.5 is also a full point of value over our consensus line of 147.5.

Staff notes:

• This is our top model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
• Iowa State is a strong home team, 12-2 ATS at home this year, including last Saturday's Staff Pick over TCU.
• Some model factors include Texas Tech's higher 3-point and free throw percentage make rate in the last seven games (versus full season) and Iowa State's defensive efficiency numbers, low opponent field goal attempts, and percentage of opponent attempts beyond the arc.

Staff notes:

• Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
• At the time of posting, our models currently have this as a strong play up to -235.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB, at lines where UCLA is a one-point favorite at other books in early releases.
• The DraftKings' line is providing extra line value at early release, with them as the underdog.
• Since an embarrassing 90-44 loss at Utah in early January, UCLA is 7-1 SU, and 6-1-1 ATS, with the only loss coming against Arizona.
• UCLA's average Game Score over the last 8 games is +15.4 (closer to their preseason rating expectation) compared to only +2.1 over the first 16 games.
• Freshman Brandon Williams has moved into the starting lineup over the last five games, and the team has continued its improved play, after starting 4 different players in that spot over the first 16 games of the season.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Wednesday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Staff notes:

• Top model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
• Iowa State is a high-pressure defense that defends the paint well, and creates turnovers. 46% of all FGA attempts against them are from beyond the arc.
• Iowa State shows a pretty strong split based on whether the opponent tends to shoot a high rate of threes or not for the full season. Against teams that rank in the top 100 in three-point rate, they are only 3-4 ATS, but against teams ranked in the bottom 100 in three-point rate, like TCU, they are 9-1 ATS, and the only non-cover was the last home game against Kansas, when a last second bucket for Kansas got the backdoor cover by 0.5 point.
• TCU has shot 43% from three in their last three games, a regression factor that is one of the model factors showing up.
• Iowa State is a strong home team, 11-2 ATS at home this year.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.
• Our models have had high confidence Under plays on 3 of the past 5 Colorado State games, going 3-0 on those plays.
• We're posting Under 144.5 at -114 odds, but this is available at 143.5 with -110 odds at other books. That's also a good play, according to our models. With about 2% of college basketbal totals pushing at whole numbers in this range, getting a full extra point for the -114 is worth it.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Tuesday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.
• The FanDuel line is providing a 0.5 point of value compared to the consensus line across sportsbooks.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated spread model pick for Saturday in CBB, rated above 55%, and the BetMGM line is 0.5 of value compared to the consensus we are seeing.
• Spread picks rated at over 55% are 37-29-1 so far this year (56%)

Staff notes:

• This is a top-rated spread pick, rated above 55% in both our Decision Tree and Similar Games model, and is also a top-rated moneyline pick if you would rather play the ML.
• Illinois-Chicago is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after an 8-2 ATS start in their first 10.

Staff notes:

• Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
• The -190 line is also a good value compared to some other U.S. books. Our models have it as a strong play up to -193.

Staff notes:

• Be careful: there is also an Oklahoma at Kansas State game today, with a total in the 140s. Make sure you are betting on the correct game.
• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today, at the consensus line of 144.0. FanDuel is offering 144.5 at a -112 payout, which is a slightly better value than 144.0 at a -110 payout, which is available at some other books.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Thursday).

Staff notes:

• Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
• The +180 line at BetMGM is also a good value compared to the market. Our models have it as a strong play down to +170.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Wednesday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model and spread pick for Saturday.
• Texas Tech has had an average rating of +15.5 in the last 9 games, since they lost Devan Cambridge for the season and switched to the current lineup, compared to+9.9 rating for the first 8 games.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated spread pick for Saturday in CBB, and the highest-rated Decision Tree model play.
• It is also rated at 59% in our Similar Games Model.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Saturday.
• Some of the key model factors include Pepperdine opponent's high three-point % for the season (37%) and opponents shooting a percentage on free throws in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday.
• Texas A&M got off to a strong start to the season, but has struggled to 9-6, dealing with lineup inconsistency, extreme poor shooting, and guard Tyrece Radford missing several games.
• A&M ranks 354th in three-point shooting percentage while Kentucky is 8th-best, providing a regression opportunity with both teams at extreme ends.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.
• This line of of 157.0 is higher than what we are currently showing as playable on our picks page (156.0) but this is the best line at the large US-based books. Given the positive line movement in our favor on this game since opening we still think it's a playable option, up to 157.5.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
• The +160 line at DraftKings is also a good value compared to the market. Our models have it as a strong play down to +144.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Friday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our second highest rated college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Saturday), and our top Over play.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Saturday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Friday).
• The line has moved slightly up from the opening line, indicating market agreement. But it hasn't moved so much that we think the value is gone.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our our top college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Wednesday).
• The line has moved slightly up from the opening line, indicating market agreement. But it hasn't moved so much that we think the value is gone.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Sunday).
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 53% over the past week.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our second strongest college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Wednesday), and still one of the strongest of the past week.
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 55% over the past week.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Wednesday).
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 55% over the past week.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Tuesday)
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 54% over the past week.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate heading into Monday, and 54% over the past week.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our strongest college basketball O/U model picks of the day.
• This game is also available at a line of 152 with payout odds of -110 at several major U.S. books. Our models project it as s trong play at that line as well.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our strongest college basketball O/U model pick of the day.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• College basketball totals began the season going Over at a high rate, due to markets underestimating the impact of the change to the block/charge rule. However over the past week the markets have seemed to overcorrect, with large upward line movements from the openers, but Unders winning at a higher rate 
• This is our strongest college basketball model Under pick of the day.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our strongest college basketball Over model pick of the day.
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 53% heading into Friday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our strongest college basketball O/U model pick of the day.
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 53% heading into Thursday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 56% heading into Tuesday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 56% heading into Sunday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
• The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 57% heading into Saturday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• Our models project this as a striong play still at 141.5, which is available at FanDuel, and 141.0, which is available at Caesars.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• NOTE: We originally listed the wrong game when posting this -- we listed Air Force's next game on November 10. We corrected it within a few minutes of posting. Hopefully nobody bet that (probably nobody was able to). In general, we will not be posting college basketball spread or total picks several days in advance.

Staff notes:

• We will close out the college basketball season by continuing to ride the Connecticut Huskies, who have been outperforming the market expectations significantly all tournament. 
• Connecticut is even better than their already impressive average power rating in games with lineup usage most similar to how they have distributed minutes in the NCAA Tournament.
• In the most similar games, which feature a heavy dosage of Andre Jackson compared to times earlier in the season when he was hurt, Connecticut's rating is a dominating +25.1. 
• Connecticut is tied for 2nd in our overall power ratings, before even accounting for lineup shifts and improvements, and are up to 1st overall in Ken Pomeroy's ratings. So this is a dominant title contender who happened to be a No. 4 seed, and is playing at an elite level.
• San Diego State has also played well in the NCAA Tournament, but their most similar performances with the lineup usage they have employed in the tournament is at +15.3, nearly 10 points lower.
• Both teams play a deep lineup and have versatility to adjust in game, the difference is Connecticut's offensive efficiency. Both are top 10 in defensive efficiency, but Connecticut is 3rd and San Diego State 68th in offensive efficiency.
• San Diego State is elite at three-point defense (28.1%) but Connecticut is 8-2 ATS against top 100 teams in three-point defense, and is 7-0 SU and ATS against top 20 defensive efficiency teams.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Under according to our models.
• Unders rated at 56% or better by our Decision Tree Model are 140-106-7 (56.9%) this season.
• Most of the model factors are related to shooting regression (Connecticut is at 41% from three in last three tournament games for example) and also rebounding impact, as Miami has had a lot of offensive rebounds in recent games, but Connecticut is good on the glass.

Staff notes:

• This is a plck based on our lineup analysis and team trends.
• Connecticut is even better than their already impressive average power rating in games with lineup usage most similar to how they have distributed minutes in the NCAA Tournament.
• In the most similar games, which feature a heavy dosage of Andre Jackson compared to times earlier in the season when he was hurt, Connecticut's rating is a dominating +26.1. 
• Connecticut is already 3rd in our overall power ratings, before even accounting for lineup shifts and improvements, and are up to 1st overall in Ken Pomeroy's ratings. So this is a dominant title contender who happened to be a No. 4 seed, and is playing at an elite level.
• Miami has also played better with their current lineup, but is well below UConn, and the biggest difference is on the defensive end. Connecticut ranks near the top in both offense and defense, while Miami has an elite offense, but is outside the top 100 in a lot of defensive metrics.

Staff notes:

• This a play based on our WOWY analysis and team trends.
• We'll largely copy our comment on UAB here from before our pick on them to win at Vanderbilt in the quarterfinal.
• UAB has played much better if we exclude a mid-season stretch when Jordan "Jelly" Walker was playing through an ankle injury and also missed games, and has an average rating of +13.5 in 20 games both before the first injury and after he fully returned, nearly three points better than full season ratings.
• UAB has also averaged a rating of over +14.0 points over the last nine games with mostly the same rotation, with the only poor performance coming against Florida Atlantic.

Staff notes:

• Using our Round Advancement Odds projections in our Bracket Picks we show a 73% chance this prop hits Over in 2023.
• This is a relatively wide open year where the top seeds have a lower chance to reach the Final Four than in recent past seasons.
• Numerous teams in the No. 4 to No. 9 range have a realistic chance to make a Final Four run.
• This prop will hit if any team reaches the Final Four seeded No. 9 or worse, or if a No. 8 reaches, as long as the other three are not all No. 1 seeds, and then numerous other combinations from there.
• Since the NCAA Tournament went to the play-in games in 2011, this prop would have hit 8 of 11 times, including last year when North Carolina reached the Final Four.
• It's also a fun multi-level prop that has you rooting for top seeds to lose and for Cinderella runs in the tournament.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on our WOWY and lineup analysis.
• Miami has been signficantly better with the rotation they have used in the NCAA Tournament, with much heavier minutes for the guards and starters all healthy, and in the most similar 25% of games they are nearly five points better than their season power rating average.
• Texas could be without Dylan Disu, who was in a walking boot on the bench in the Sweet 16 matchup after a foot injury.

Staff notes:

• Our current projection gives Connecticut a 36% chance of reaching the Final Four.
• Connecticut is currently No. 3 in our predictive power ratings, and the 13-0 Huskies are the most likely team to get a No. 1 seed (60%) in our bracketology projections.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on our WOWY and team trend analysis.
• Connecticut's performance has been dominant in the tournament, but with the current rotation, they have been playing at an elite level. We will just duplicate our comments from the pick in the Sweet 16 game.
• Connecticut's average game rating is about 3 points higher (now closer to 4 points higher after the Arkansas blowout) when using a rotation more similar to what they have used in the two tournament games so far, with heavy minutes for Andre Jackson, and more minutes for Nahiem Alleyne and Joey Calcaterra, and fewer for Hassan Diarra.
• We do have a futures pick on Connecticut from December to make Final Four (+300) and current game moneyline is about -135, but we also like this play independent from having that future in play based on matchup.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on our WOWY analysis, tournament power ratings and projections, and matchup factors.
• We have Florida Atlantic projected with a 40.2% chance of winning the matchup with Tennessee.
• Tennessee has performed worse against top offensive efficiency teams, going 10-8 SU and 5-13 ATS against teams ranked in the top 100 in KenPom's efficiency ratings, but 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS against all other opponents. Florida Atlantic is 30th in offensive efficiency.
• Tennessee has also performed relatively worse against top defensive rebounding teams, going 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS (the one cover being against Duke). Florida Atlantic is 43rd in that category, the best defensive rebound ranking of any team Tennessee has faced (just ahead of Colorado and Kentucky, teams they went 0-3 SU against as favorites.)
• The most similar offensive team to FAU is Missouri, in terms of overall offensive efficiency, pace, turnover rate, and volume of three point attempts, and Missouri scored 79 and 86 points in two wins against Tennessee as an outright dog.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread (-4.5) and moneyline pick for Thursday in the Sweet 16.
• Some model factors include Arkansas' high percentage of points from two-point shots and low three-point rate, against a team that rates highly in field goal percentage defense and blocks, Connecticut's opponents hitting a higher rate (37%) of threes in recent games, and Connecticut's high offensive efficiency in the last seven games.
• We also like this play based on lineup analysis, as Connecticut's average game rating is about 3 points higher when using a rotation more similar to what they have used in the two tournament games so far, with heavy minutes for Andre Jackson, and more minutes for Nahiem Alleyne and Joey Calcaterra, and fewer for Hassan Diarra.
• We do have a futures pick on Connecticut from December to make Final Four (+300) and current price is about +185, but we also like this play independent from having that future in play based on matchup.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on our WOWY and matchup analysis.
• UAB has played much better if we exclude a mid-season stretch when Jordan "Jelly" Walker was playing through an ankle injury and also missed games, and has an average rating of +12.7 in 25 games both before and after that stretch.
• Vanderbilt has been without center Liam Robbins for the last six games, and Myles Stute announced he was entering the transfer portal at the end of the SEC Tournament, and is not playing in the NIT.
• Vanderbilt has won two home games in the NIT, including a one-point win over Michigan, but they were outrebounded 39-23, and trailed by 8 in the final minute, against a Michigan team also down two starters in the game.
• UAB is the 8th-best team in the country at offensive rebound rate, and should have an advantage on the glass against an undersized Vanderbilt team.
   

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline pick (as well as spread pick) for Wednesday in the CBI Final.
• Eastern Kentucky has reached the final by winning three straight overtime games, including a 2OT game last night over Southern Utah.
• Model factors that favor Charlotte include their high offensive efficiency for the season, their advantage on the defensive boards, and Charlotte's low opponent assist-to-turnover ratio.
• Eastern Kentucky has also hit 40% of threes over the three OT wins, a regression candidate (32% for full season).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Under pick in the CBI semifinal between Radford and Charlotte.
• So far this year, playable Unders rated over 56% by the Decision Tree model are 139-106-7 (56.7%) and non-conference top playable Unders are 67-46-5 (59.3%). 
• These are two of the slowest paced teams in basketball, with Charlotte the second-slowest, and will need high efficiency on offense to go over at the projected pace.
• Radford has hit 48% of threes in the last three games, and opponents have hit 40%, a clear regression candidate.
• Other model impacts include Radford's low opponent rebounds, and Charlotte's low rebound totals in recent games; both teams' low FTA rate for the season; and Charlotte opponents' low assists totals and assists-to-turnover rates in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick in the NIT quarterfinal between North Texas and Oklahoma State.
• It's also a playable lean based on our WOWY analysis has Oklahoma State with an average power rating of +9.3 in the 13 games without guard Avery Anderson, while North Texas is at +10.5, excluding the first four games of the year, when Tylor Perry missed two games and they played two non-D1 schools. The game is at OSU but even with HCA added in there is value on the dog.

Staff notes:

• This prop is available under Sweet 16 and then under Xavier.
• Our projected Round Odds from our adjusted ratings for our Bracket Picks have Xavier with a 55.9% chance of reaching the Sweet 16.
• The break-even on this is 51.2%, so we are getting solid value on this prop.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model over/under pick for the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament.
• For the year, Unders rated above 56% are 139-105-6 (57%).
• Model factors include Connecticut's high offensive rebound percentage (1st in nation) vs. St. Mary's high defensive rebound percentage (2nd in nation), Connecticut's very high offensive efficiency in the last three games, and St. Mary's low opponent three-point attempt rate in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick for the NIT matchup on Sunday.
• It is also a play based on our WOWY lineup analysis.
• Oklahoma State's rating is lower on average since Avery Anderson's season-ending injury, +9.2 on average.
• Eastern Washington has four games without starting point guard Tyreese Davis (or where he left in the first five minutes) earlier this year that are pulling down their season average, but their average rating is +3.2 with him playing the full game.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
• Northwestern has been a solid underdog play all season, as they are 9-7 SU and 11-5 ATS when getting points. 
• Some model factors include UCLA's low number of 3 point attempts and points from 3 this season, Northwestern opponent's low number of points from 3 in recent games, and Northwestern's high steals per play. 

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on our WOWY adjusted team ratings and team trends.
• We show about one point of edge on this line based on adjusted ratings entering Thursday, with Iowa State being an overvalued No. 6 seed, and only valued at our No. 38 team in the tournament in our adjusted ratings entering the game.
• Pitt also gets an extra day's rest from playing in the First Four game in Dayton (because the committee scheduled all the No. 6 seeds at Friday sites), and that could be big as starting center Fed Federiko missed Tuesday's game and was a game-time decision, but now gets extra recovery time and is more likely to play with the game on Friday.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean but not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and analysis.
• Based on the full season ratings, Boise State would be a one-point favorite, and that's where it opened before moving to Northwestern as the slight favorite.
• Boise State has played relatively worse down the stretch, and their best guard Marcus Shaver has been playing through an ankle injury over the last two months. They have been below their full season power rating in 8 of the last 10.
• Northwestern is very good at avoiding turnovers and creating turnovers on defense, and teams with that profile have fared well in their first tournament game. Since 2011, teams in the top 40 nationally in turnover rate on both sides of the ball are 13-6 SU and ATS in the First Round.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean against the spread, and a playable model moneyline play on Maryland according to our models, if you would rather play the moneyline on this one.
• We are listing the spread pick as our official play since the extra half-point is available at DraftKings to get the full three points, and cover getting at least a push in all one-score game scenarios.
• Our WOWY analysis has these two teams dead even, so we also see some value on getting points in this fairly even matchup.
• One model factor here is actually Maryland's relatively high home power rating this year, as the market can sometimes overvalue the home/road splits in college basketball in a small sample size. Maryland is 13-4 ATS and 8-8 ATS in road/neutral, though they have done fine in neutral games.
• Other model factors include Maryland's low number of FGA allowed this year, their recent low 3 Point Attempts allowed, and Maryland's low number of turnovers in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick in this NIT game at Liberty.
• So far this year, playable Unders rated at 56% or higher by the Decision Tree Model are 134-105-6 (56.1%) and non-conference playable Unders rated there are 62-44-3 (58.5%).
• Some model factors include Liberty's low opponent made FGs per game this season, and both teams' high assist-to-turnover ratio in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This prop is available at FanDuel under "March Madness" and "To Make Men's Tournament."
• Clemson is currently tied atop the ACC at 10-3 in conference play, but we project them as having a greater than 50% chance of missing the tournament by Selection Sunday.
• Clemson is currently slotted as an 11-seed and one of the last at-large teams in on the Bracket Matrix. 
• They are currently projected out of the field in both our automated Bracketology, with a 26% chance of making it, and are also projected out in Jason Lisk's bracket (which will be released publicly next week) as the 5th team out.
• Clemson is only 64th in our predictive ratings, and 65th in the NET, and have played the worst strength of schedule of any team under realistic at-large consideration.
• They have also had three bad losses to South Carolina, Loyola-Chicago, and Boston College.
• Clemson is 2-2 against teams we currently project in the field, with "best" wins of home against Duke and at Pittsburgh. They play all three remaining games against projected tournament teams on the road.
• With their lower power rating, lack of top end wins, and poor strength of schedule, along with some bad losses, they project as the type of team that gets left out on Selection Sunday. 

Staff notes:

• This futures pick is made prior to the Duke-UNC game and official seeding for the ACC Tournament, so odds could shift.
• Our current automated projections have Duke at 19.7% to win the ACC Tournament across all scenarios.
• Duke is going to be either the No.4 or No. 5 seed depending on Saturday's results.
• Duke is also a bit undervalued based on earlier injuries and the team playing better down the stretch with the current healthy lineup.
• The projection if Duke is a No. 5 seed (with Miami as the No. 1 seed) is a 22.7% chance to win the tournament, and it goes up from there in scenarios where Duke finishes as the No. 4 seed, or Pittsburgh upsets Miami to get the No. 1 seed. So we see value regardless of how the scenarios play out, in some cases, even more value.

Staff notes:

• Based on overall season power ratings, Howard is below both Norfolk State and NC Central, and behind both in both market and our automated projection odds.
• However, there's a decent reason to think that Howard, who surged to finish 1st in the MEAC regular season by winning 10 of 12, is undervalued based on their current lineup.
• Howard destroyed Norfolk State by 20 in the season finale to claim the top seed, but the starting lineup used in that game has only been used 10 times, due to injuries and lineup shifts. But in an admittedly smaller sample size, have averaged a power rating of +3.0 (their season rating is -4.6).
• Since Maryland transfer Marcus Dockery was put in the starting lineup on January 7th, Howard has gone 12-3, and are 4 points better than the season average. Dockery has shot 46% from three and is one of the national leaders, and he has made over half of his deep shots since becoming the starting shooting guard.
• Two of the three losses since Dockery became starter were when starting center Steve Settle was out injured, but he returned for the Norfolk State win.
• Howard also has the much better draw, as Norfolk State and NC-Central are on the opposite side of the bracket, and if they are closer in quality to the team that has played since early January, are closer to 30% to win the tournament.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model over/under pick for Saturday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.4% of the time (129-104-6). 
• Some model impact factors include UMass-Lowell's good rebounding numbers and low fouls in recent games, and Vermont's extremely high offensive efficiency in recent games.

Staff notes:

• Southern Utah is both a top-rated playable spread and moneyline pick for Friday night, and we endorse either of them as an option, depending on your preference.
• Some of the model factors include Southern Utah's rate of drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line recently, their shooting efficiency in recent games, and the low number of threes this year.
• Utah Valley also has had extreme opponent three-point percentage (31%) compared to Southern Utah opponent's three-percentage (35%).

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and analysis. We also had a futures pick on Howard to win MEAC pre-tournament, and we will re-iterate a lot of the same points that we said before they went out and won their first game by 36 as an 8-point fave.
• There's a decent reason to think that Howard, who surged to finish 1st in the MEAC regular season by winning 10 of 12, is undervalued based on their current lineup.
• Howard destroyed Norfolk State by 20 in the season finale to claim the top seed, but the starting lineup used in that game has only been used 10 times, due to injuries and lineup shifts. But in an admittedly smaller sample size, have averaged a power rating of +3.0 (their season rating is -4.6). [It's now up to +4.5 with the current lineup after the quarterfinal.]
• Since Maryland transfer Marcus Dockery was put in the starting lineup on January 7th, Howard has gone 13-3, and are 5 points better than the season average. Dockery has shot 46% from three and is one of the national leaders, and he has made over half of his deep shots since becoming the starting shooting guard.
• Two of the three losses since Dockery became starter were when starting center Steve Settle was out injured, but he returned for the Norfolk State win.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Friday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 54.9% of the time (124-102-6). 
• Some model impact factors include Michigan State's extremely high effective field goal percentage in the last three games, Ohio State's rebounding, and Michigan State's two-point percentage defense in recent games.
• Ohio State has also played better defense in the last three weeks, turning around a run of poor performances. The one high-scoring game was against the Spartans, in a game where both teams combined to hit 23 three-pointers on over 50% shooting from deep.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday.
• Nevada has had two straight "bad" losses that have them on the edge of the bubble entering this game, and they have had 4 poor offensive games in the last 5, where they have struggled at two-point shooting and not getting offensive boards, while opponents have had more success on the boards. 
• San Jose State has been playing better down the stretch, and has been particularly good at getting offensive boards, which is a strong matchup factor in their favor here in the underdog role.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model spread pick but is a pick on both lineup WOWY (With or Without You) factors and trends.
• We also had Duke as a future to win the ACC tourney from last week (prior to the UNC win) but they have moved from that +500 original price down to the favorite at +300 at DraftKings, and a lot of the same rationale applies.
• Duke is a better team now, than the full season rating represents. They had a rough stretch of nine games from early December to late January when guard Jeremy Roach was injured and freshman center Dereck Lively was injured and playing limited minutes. They've been more than 2 points better than their season average if you exclude those games.
• Duke's 8-point home win over Pitt in the regular season came during that stretch, in a game Roach missed and Lively played 12 minutes.
• Over the last 5 seasons, favorites coming off a bye in a conference tourney at a neutral site, and playing a team that had to play the day before like No. 5 seed Pitt did, are 164-144-9 (53.2%).

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated model spread picks for Wednesday in CBB, and one where we also see value based on recent news and team trends.
• Texas Tech just suspended head coach Mark Adams on Sunday for statements he made to a player, and will likely be terminated after the season. Tech is not going to the NCAA Tournament at 16-15, unless they go on a 4-game run in the Big 12 tourney.
• West Virginia has surged in the last two weeks, winning three games and losing only to Kansas on the road by two points, to lock in their place in the tourney.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Over/Under for Tuesday in the Big Sky Tournament.
• We also like this Under based on matchup factors and team trends, particularly involving Weber State.
• Both of these teams rate highly in defensive rebounding, and poorly in offensive rebounding, which should limit second chance opportunities.
• Weber State rates poorly in three-point percentage allowed, but their Over/Under performance has been tight to how well opponents shoot from outside. Montana State is 309th nationally and 9th (out of 10) in conference play at three-point shooting, and their offense is built around scoring inside.
• Against teams who have averaged 33% or under from three-point range for the year, like Montana State, Weber State has gone Under 7 of 10 times, by an average of -10.6 points. All other Weber State games have gone Over 13 of 20 times.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.5% of the time (117-94-6). 
• Some model impact factors include Houston's low field goals allowed for the season, high offensive rebound rate, Memphis' recent high opponent two-point rate allowed, and Memphis' low rate of taking three-point shots in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.5% of the time (117-94-6). 
• Some model impact factors include Liberty's low possessions per game, Liberty's high assist-to-turnover ratio and low turnovers in recent games, and Kennesaw State's low opponent three-point percentage in recent games.

Staff notes:

• his is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.1% of the time (114-93-6). 
• Some model impact factors include PIttsburgh's high block rate on defense in recent games, and Miami's high number of points from inside the arc in recent games.

Staff notes:

• Our automated projections have UNC-Asheville with a 26.9% chance of winning the tournament, putting these odds right at break-even.
• However, there's also reason to think that UNCA is a value based on both their own performance and some potential injury factors for opponents.
• UNCA's power rating would be about a point higher if you excluded a stretch in December when shooting guard Fletcher Abee (42% from three) missed games.
• UNCA also struggled against the two best teams they faced (Arkansas, Dayton) with better athletes that can defend their shooters, but they excelled in conference play, shooting 41% from three in Big South play, and winning the conference by four games. They were 2 points better on average in games against Big South teams compared to their season power rating overall.
• Further, Gardner-Webb point guard Julien Soumaoro missed the last game (and most of the game before that) with an undisclosed injury, and his status is up in the air. Gardner-Webb is the strongest opponent (and 5 seed) on UNCA's side of the bracket and if they are injury-impacted that improves Asheville's chances of reaching the final.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
• So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.1% of the time (114-93-6). 
• Some model impact factors include Syracuse's recent high opponent shooting percentages in the last three games, Wake Forest's interior shooting, and both team having low rebound totals in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model spread pick but is a pick based on player news and team trends.
• Tennessee point guard Zakai Zeigler tore his ACL in Tuesday's game and is lost for the season. He is one of the national leaders in both assists and steals and is a key driver of Tennessee's pressure defense.
• Even with Ziegler, Tennessee was significantly better against poor offenses and struggled against better teams against the spread. Tennessee is only 4-10 ATS against top 100 offenses (Auburn is 76th) but 12-4 against all others ATS.
•  

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated playable spread model picks for Saturday, and also a play based on team trends.
• Texas A&M got off to a slow start with a lot of lineup shuffling, but over 21 games with the current lineup, has been more than 3 points better than the season average power rating.
• Alabama has struggled compared to their previous performances levels over the last three games, since the news broke that star Brandon Miller had driven a gun to the scene of a murder, and the program has been under intense media scrutiny.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean but not a model play, but is a play based on team trends and injury news.
• UMKC's Shemarri Allen suffered a season-ending injury three games ago, and UMKC has failed to cover those games by a combined 52 points. 
• UMKC has also struggled with Allen David Mukaba, the leading rebounder, missing time over the last month.