Now that the NCAAB season has ended, we are re-evaluating the Staff Picks feature and will provide an update to subscribers when ready. If you have feedback or suggestions, please let us know here.

Past Picks

NCAAB picks are 238-217-5, for +21.3 units of profit (assuming 1 unit risked on every pick).

Have feedback or requests? Let us know »

Over/Under

Purdue vs. Connecticut Under 144.0 -112

Won: 135 points

Mon Apr 8 • 9:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Purdue and Connecticut combine for fewer than 144 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model Over/Under for the Final Four.
  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • For March, model Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher are 56.2% (41-32-1).
  • Purdue's performance versus top interior defenses versus all others shows noticeable splits. They are 5-8 on Overs when the opponent holds teams to 47% or under on two-point attempts for the year, and 18-7 overs in all other games. Connecticut is 2nd in the nation at 43% two-point defense, the best team that Purdue has played in that regard.
  • Edey's height also matches up with Donovan Clingan at center, and both could neutralize the offensive advantages that shooters have getting open when defenses typically have to collapse more.

Pick published: Apr 8 7:03pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 676

Over/Under

NC State vs. Purdue Under 146.5 -110

Won: 113 points

Sat Apr 6 • 6:09pm ET

More info

How it wins: NC State and Purdue combine for fewer than 147 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model Over/Under for the Final Four.
  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • For March, model Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher are 55.6% (40-32-1).
  • Some model factors in this one include Purdue's two-point percentage defense and low foul rate.
  • NC State's defensive numbers have been improved during their end-of-season run. While some of that has been poor opponent three-point shooting, they have also had better interior defense (47% for last eight wins, compared to just over 50% before) and defensive rebounding. 

Pick published: Apr 6 5:24pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 674

Spread

Clemson +3.5 -108

Lost: 82-89

Clemson vs. Alabama

Sat Mar 30 • 8:49pm ET

More info

How it wins: Clemson wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points against Alabama.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trends and lineup analysis.
  • We will largely just copy and update the notes from our previous Clemson pick in the Sweet 16:
  • Clemson is better than their raw rating with the current lineup fully healthy. Specifically, in games with Jack Clark healthy and in the starting lineup with the other four starters, Clemson averaged a Game Score of +18.9 (16 games) versus +11.1 (19 games) in all others. 
  • Clemson is 11-5 ATS with Clark as a starter and 9-9-1 when he is not.
  • Alabama plays at a fast pace and gets on the offensive boards at a high rate, but Clemson has performed well against the fastest-paced offenses they have faced, who also have high Offensive Rebound rates, beating TCU outright in December as a dog, already beating Alabama outright in November as a road dog, beating New Mexico by over 20 as a dog in the first round, and beating Arizona by 5 as a 7-point dog in the last game..

Pick published: Mar 30 2:06pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 653

Team Future

Marquette To Make the Elite Eight +205

Lost: in Sweet 16 to NC State

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Marquette Reaches the Elite Eight in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This prop is available at FanDuel under the "Elite Eight" tab, and then "Marquette to Make 2024 Tournament Elite Eight" - YES.
  • Our projected odds for Marquette is 36.3% to make the Elite Eight, while the break-even for the +205 line is 32.8%.
  • We think there is some variance upside here with Marquette, where the market is reduced on Marquette because of recent injuries, but if they can get through the first weekend, this team has the potential to be one of the top teams in the tournament. Based on our lineup review, this team is +19.0 when all five starters play, +14.8 when one is out and +7.0 (1 game) when two starters are out.
  • We also think Tyler Kolek is ready to play after taking 2.5 weeks off with the oblique injury, as reports today were that he was looking like himself in practice.

Pick published: Mar 20 11:41pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Spread

Creighton +3.5 -110

Lost: 75-82

Creighton vs. Tennessee

Fri Mar 29 • 10:09pm ET

More info

How it wins: Creighton wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points against Tennessee.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our roster trend and matchup analysis.
  • Our review of lineups and adjustments has this line closer than the 3.5 spread (about 1.7 point difference) with a big factor being excluding some games where Creighton did not have all starters healthy.
  • In addition, this looks like the type of matchup that has given Tennessee relative problems. Tennessee's results show a strong relationship to the quality of the opponent defense, and they have performed worse relative to expectations against better defenses.
  • Against top 30 defenses in Ken Pom (Creighton is 23rd), Tennessee is only 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS. They are also 3-4 ATS against 31-75 ranked defenses, compared to 13-6-1 ATS against all others.

Pick published: Mar 29 12:06pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars.

Rot# 641

Spread

Duke +4.5 -114

Won: 54-51

Duke vs. Houston

Fri Mar 29 • 9:39pm ET

More info

How it wins: Duke wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points against Houston.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our roster trend and lineup analysis.
  • Duke is a little better than their raw rating when looking at games with all five starters healthy, and they've answered the concerns after the NC State ACC loss with strong tournament performances (and that loss doesn't look nearly as bad in light of NC State's performance since.)
  • Houston's raw rating is a little inflated by cupcake blowouts, and they are also still hampered by depth issue, particularly inside, which could be a factor against Duke's size. 
  • Houston is 4-12 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread, compared to 13-5-2 ATS in all other games.

Pick published: Mar 29 12:06pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 645

Custom Bet

Under 13.5 Big 12 Tournament Wins -110

Won: 7 wins for Big 12

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: The Big 12 finishes with fewer than 14 wins in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This prop is available at Caesars Sportsbook under "Future Bets" and "Total Big 12 Tournament Wins."
  • Our average projection for Big 12 total wins is 12.75, providing some value on the Under here.
  • We have often seen recently that the conferences that get the most high seeds tend to underperform expectations, as there could be an effect where variance from games in November and December are causing these conferences to be overvalued.
  • Over the last three tournaments, six different conferences have had at least six teams seeded No. 8 or better in the NCAA Tournament. Those conferences averaged 8.2 wins in the NCAA Tournament, with none higher than 11 wins, despite having a lot of top seeds expected to advance far.

Pick published: Mar 20 11:41pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Spread

Clemson +7.0 -110

Won: 77-72

Clemson vs. Arizona

Thu Mar 28 • 7:09pm ET

More info

How it wins: Clemson wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points against Arizona.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our lineup and roster trend analysis.
  • Clemson is better than their raw rating with the current lineup fully healthy. Specifically, in games with Jack Clark healthy and in the starting lineup with the other four starters, Clemson averaged a Game Score of +18.4 (15 games) versus +11.1 (19 games) in all others. 
  • Clemson is 10-5 ATS with Clark as a starter and 9-9-1 when he is not.
  • Arizona's rating, meanwhile, is a little inflated by cupcake blowouts, as their average Game Score was +34.7 in the five easiest games on their schedule, +21.5 in all others, so just excluding those cupcake games drops the average rating by nearly two points.
  • Arizona plays at a fast pace and gets on the offensive boards at a high rate, but Clemson has performed well against the fastest-paced offenses they have faced, who also have high Offensive Rebound rates, beating TCU outright in December as a dog, beating Alabama outright in November as a dog, and beating New Mexico by over 20 as a dog in the first round.

Pick published: Mar 28 12:57pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 637

Spread

San Diego St. -5.5 -110

Won: 85-57

Yale vs. San Diego St.

Sun Mar 24 • 9:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Diego State wins the game by more than 5 points against Yale.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on lineup and game trends.
  • Yale is coming off the outright win against Auburn, where a lot of extreme things happened for them. Auburn had a starter ejected early in the game, and Yale had the highest FT rate of any game all year, at 59.6% FTA/FGA ratio (Their season average was 27.8%, 311th in D1). 
  • Yale also hit 45% from three, their fourth best shooting performance of the year (35% average), while winning despite Auburn shooting over 60% on two-point attempts.
  • Going back to 2011, teams seeded No. 13 or lower who won in the First Round are 9-16 ATS in the Second Round. However, those that did it despite the three-point shooting being 31% or lower went 4-4 ATS (including Princeton last year) while everyone else went 5-12 ATS.
  • So we will play against Yale's short term shooting performance and extreme outlier FTA rate from the First Round. 

Pick published: Mar 24 3:11pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 838

Spread

Texas A&M +8.5 -105

Won: 95-100

Texas A&M vs. Houston

Sun Mar 24 • 8:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game or loses by fewer than 9 points against Houston.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our roster and lineup trend analysis.
  • We will continue to ride the "Texas A&M with Manny Obaseki" train here. Since Obaseki was inserted as a starter and the Aggies went to a three-guard lineup, the transformation has been remarkable. Texas A&M's average Game Score over that span is +21.9 (for reference, that's in the range of the top No. 1 seeds and their average over the full season). A team who was among the worst shooting teams in the country has been 39% from three over the last seven, while adding in their best outside shooter as a starter, and also a player who can dribble drive and open up opportunities for the other guards.
  • Obaseki has averaged 16.8 points per game as a starter, while the team has averaged 85.1 points per game in his starts.
  • A&M has had so many different lineups and lineup shifts that we see value, as the market is still tied to the Texas A&M overall numbers and season averages, and this team is noticeably different.  As one clear example, A&M will likely have three different starters than the first matchup in December (a 4-point Houston win). 
  • Houston's rating is also slightly inflated by their ability to blow out much weaker opponents. In games with a spread of less than 10 points, they are 4-11 ATS this year (all as favorites), and are 7-11 ATS in road/neutral situations. 

Pick published: Mar 24 3:11pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 835

Team Future

Houston to Miss Sweet 16 +320

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Houston Does Not Reach the Sweet 16 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This prop is available at FanDuel under the "Sweet 16" tab, and then "Houston to Make 2024 Tournament Sweet 16" - NO.
  • Our projected odds for Houston is 69.5% to make and 30.5% to miss the Sweet 16, while the break-even for the +320 line is 24.4%.
  • We believe there is some edge in this based on the recent quality of both Nebraska and Texas A&M, one of whom will be the second round opponent. Both teams are better than their overall season power rating based on the current lineups.
  • Houston also has an X-factor forward J'Wan Roberts being limited in the Big 12 tournament by a knee bone bruise, something that could impact his performance. The team is also thin at the forward position after injuries to the bench, so Roberts not being 100% increases the risk of an upset.

Pick published: Mar 20 11:41pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

Alabama To Miss Sweet 16 -115

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Alabama Does Not Reach the Sweet 16 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This prop is available at FanDuel under the "Sweet 16" tab, and then "Alabama to Make 2024 Tournament Sweet 16" - NO.
  • Our projected odds for Alabama is 42.9% to make and 57.1% to miss the Sweet 16, while the break-even for the -115 line is 53.5%.
  • We have been fading Alabama recently because of their poor defensive performance over the last month. They have been injury-impacted with Latrell Wrightsell and Rylan Griffen missing games down the stretch, but it's not promising that they will turn it around to respectable defense.
  • Since 2011, there have been 18 teams who were top 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, and were inside the top 20 in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offense rankings, and outside the top 70 in adjusted defense. Of those 18, 33% lost in Round 1, including several notable big upsets, and only 39% reached the Sweet 16.
  • Alabama finished 3rd in Ken Pomeroy's offensive efficiency but 113th in defensive efficiency, and finished that poorly despite opponents hitting only 32% from three on the year.

Pick published: Mar 20 11:41pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

North Carolina To Miss Sweet 16 +164

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: North Carolina Does Not Reach the Sweet 16 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This prop is available at FanDuel under the "Sweet 16" tab, and then "North Carolina to Make 2024 Tournament Sweet 16" - NO.
  • Our projected odds for North Carolina is 59.2% to make and 40.8% to miss the Sweet 16, while the break-even for the +164 line is 37.9%.
  • We like this prop based on the quality of the second round draw, where either Michigan State or Mississippi State rank as tougher than average teams out of the No. 8/9 area.
  • North Carolina is also a below average No. 1 seed by overall strength. They rank 8th in our tournament rankings (and 9th at KenPom). No. 1 seeds who have been power rated outside the top 4 in our rankings entering the tournament have only averaged 2.2 wins going back to 2010, compared to 3.4 for all other No. 1 seeds.

Pick published: Mar 20 11:41pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Spread

Marquette -4.5 -108

Lost: 81-77

Colorado vs. Marquette

Sun Mar 24 • 12:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Marquette wins the game by more than 4 points against Colorado.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model pick for Sunday.
  • Some of the model factors include Colorado's low 3-point rate, and Marquette is 10-4-1 ATS against teams outside the top 200 in three-point rate (compared to 11-9 ATS all others).
  • Colorado also rates poorly in turnovers on offense, while Marquette is one of the best in the nation at forcing turnovers. We see a big advantage there as Colorado is 0-4 ATS this year against teams inside the top 50 in defensive turnover rate, and Marquette is 10-5 ATS against teams outside the top 150 in turnover rate.
  • This Marquette team also got Tyler Kolek back healthy, and after a slow first half, they turned it on as a team in the second half against Western Kentucky, and look to be back at full strength.

Pick published: Mar 24 11:47am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 830

Spread

Oregon +4.5 -105

Lost: 73-86

Oregon vs. Creighton

Sat Mar 23 • 9:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oregon wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points against Creighton.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday and also a play based on roster trends.
  • Oregon put up a third straight dominant performance against a high-level tournament team, now beating Arizona, Colorado, and South Carolina, the first two who are still playing this weekend.
  • Oregon has faced a lot of injuries this year, and this recent run started a few games earlier when they shifted their distribution on offense, concentrating usage on their three best players, N'Faly Dante, Jermaine Couisnard, and Jackson Shelstad. Those three combined for 74 of the 87 (with Couisnard going for 40) in the win over South Carolina.
  • It presents a strength on strength here, as Creighton also plays a shorter bench, and we have a great big man matchup here between Dante and Ryan Kalkbrenner of Creighton. Since the start of March, Dante has made 58-of-69 shots and has averaged 19.8 points a game over this run.

Pick published: Mar 23 12:34pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 793

Spread

NC State -5.5 -120

Won: 79-73

Oakland vs. NC State

Sat Mar 23 • 7:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: NC State wins the game by more than 5 points against Oakland.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trends as well as performance trends from past NCAA Tournaments.
  • Oakland beat Kentucky 80-76 in a game they hit 48% from three and only 34% of their two-point attempts.
  • Going back to 2011, there have been 24 different upsets by a No. 13 seed or lower, and there is a decent negative correlation between three-point shooting in the First Round, and performance compared to the spread in the next games.
  • Overall, these lower seeds are only 9-15 ATS in the Second Round, but those who won while making 31% or fewer of their three-pointers went 4-4 ATS in the next game, while everyone else is 5-11 ATS.
  • The NC State win over Texas Tech (by 13) provided another data point that this team is playing much better down the stretch, putting up five straight great performances. Further, in all games with Mohamed Diarra starting and DJ Horne playing, the team has an average rating of +13.5, versus +7.5 in all other games.

Pick published: Mar 23 12:33pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 796

Spread

Wisconsin -5.5 -105

Lost: 61-72

James Madison vs. Wisconsin

Fri Mar 22 • 9:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wisconsin wins the game by more than 5 points against James Madison.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model pick for Friday in the NCAA Tournament, and also a pick based on lineup trends.
  • Wisconsin had a down stretch in Big Ten conference play, after a really strong start. And then they closed strong, including the OT win over Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament.
  • That conference stretch corresponded with backup PG Kamari McGee missing 11 straight games, and also some extreme opponent three point rate performance. 
  • Wisconsin's depth at point guard after McGee is thin, as Chucky Hepburn had to play more minutes, and Max Klesmit would have to fill that role if Hepburn needed a break while McGee was out.
  • Since McGee's return and the Badgers having a full rotation, they have averaged a Game Score of +21.2 (elite top seed level) while finishing 5-1 ATS.
  • Wisconsin finished 14th in opponent 3-point FG% against in Big Ten play (out of 14) and as a result ranks near the bottom of Division 1 at 37% allowed. 
  • James Madison is at the other extreme, 2nd in 3 point % against (29%), and that started in their OT win over Michigan State in the first game, where the Spartans went a dreadful 1-for-20 from deep. 

Pick published: Mar 22 11:25am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 762

Spread

Charleston +9.5 -104

Lost: 96-109

Charleston vs. Alabama

Fri Mar 22 • 7:35pm ET

More info

How it wins: Charleston wins the game or loses by fewer than 10 points against Alabama.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on a roster trend analysis and matchup review.
  • Alabama has been struggling on defense, all year, but particularly down the stretch, going 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS over their final 10, with the last 5 non-covers coming by double digits vs the spread.
  • If you look at their defensive performances, their three worst have all come since the last week of February. The only two (out of the last 10 games) that were better than their season average, just barely, were in games their opponents shot 17% and 20% from three. So unless Charleston has really bad shooting luck from outside, they have a really good chance to light up this Alabama defense.
  • Charleston is also playing better than their raw season numbers, after a slow start at 1-3. They've won 12 in row. Three of their best five offensive performances for the year have come since February 29th.

Pick published: Mar 18 9:45am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 783

Spread

Colorado +1.5 -110

Won: 102-100

Colorado vs. Florida

Fri Mar 22 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points against Florida.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our roster trend and lineup analysis.
  • Our adjusted tournament ratings, our raw predictive ratings, and other sites like Ken Pomeroy all have Colorado rated higher.
  • Colorado's performance recently has improved, and they are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games, all in road/neutral situations, and the Pac-12 teams looked good on the first day of tournament action, opening the possibility that the conference teams are a bit undervalued looking at full season numbers.
  • Florida just lost center Micah Handgloten to a broken leg on Sunday in the SEC title game. While they do have depth inside, the 7-footer is their best offensive rebounder, for a team that ranks 7th nationally in offensive rebound rate. Meanwhile, Colorado is 29th in def rebound rate, and with Handgloten out may be able to neutralize one of Florida's big strengths.

Pick published: Mar 22 11:25am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 769

Spread

UAB +6.5 -110

Won: 65-69

UAB vs. San Diego St.

Fri Mar 22 • 1:45pm ET

More info

How it wins: UAB wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points against San Diego State.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on our roster and lineup trends.
  • UAB is playing substantially better with their current lineup and minute distribution.
  • Since mid-January, when the team demoted guard Tony Toney, the least efficient player on offense in the rotation, they have been substantially better. Average game rating 0.0 in 16 games before, +8.9 since in 18 games.
  • Christian Coleman, who has a great story, growing 8 inches after high school while working at WalMart, and taking a long route to D1 through NAIA and JUCO, has emerged at the end of his first year at UAB. Over the last five games, Walker has averaged 15.6 points a game, UAB's average Game Score is +16.4, and Walker was inserted in the lineup for all three wins in the American tourney.

Pick published: Mar 22 11:25am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 785

Spread

Drake +1.5 -120

Lost: 61-66

Drake vs. Washington St.

Thu Mar 21 • 10:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Drake wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points against Washington State.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean, and a play based on recent lineup and roster trends and other factors.
  • This particular line is off some other movement, where Drake has moved to a slight favorite at other books this morning, you can also play it at -1, but we are listing this one in case you can still grab at FanDuel.
  • Drake is better than their full season number. If we isolate the games by lineup similarity to their recent usage in the MVC Tournament, and exclude the eight most dissimilar games (due to player injuries and minute distribution) their average rises to +11.7, two points better than the season average.
  • Washington State was playing well in most of Pac-12 play, up until their big upset of Arizona in Tucson. Since that result, though, they closed 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS, and their average Game Score was +8.9, nearly four points below the season average.
  • There's a lineup-related reason, as they suddenly started playing their two posts far less and playing a smaller lineup. The combo of Oscar Cluff and Rueben Chinyelu have averaged only 27 minutes in that run, compared to a combined 39 minutes in the previous 6. We cannot find an injury-related reason for the shift, but it has maintained through Pac-12 play. The biggest issue in the decline is also defense, particularly opponent shooting on two-point attempts.
  • As an additional factor, we also like that this game is played in Omaha, a short two-hour drive across I-80, while Washington State is traveling from the Pacific Time Zone.

Pick published: Mar 18 9:45am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 745

Moneyline

Dayton To Win +110

Won: 63-60

Nevada vs. Dayton

Thu Mar 21 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Dayton wins the game against Nevada in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our lineup and roster trend analysis and matchup analysis.
  • Our adjustments after lineup reviews have Dayton as the slight favorite here by a point, while the betting line is the other way, with Nevada typically favored by -1 to -1.5 on the spread, and Dayton a small +number on the moneyline. We've posted the best number at US books, the second-best being +102 at DK, so shop around.
  • We also like some of the matchup factors, including this one: Nevada is 3rd in the nation at FTA to FGA rate, at 46%, so they rely on getting to the foul line for a bigger portion of their offense. Dayton is 3rd in the nation on defense, only allowing 22% FTA to FGA rate.
  • Add in that in these NCAA Tournament games, they might be officiated a little looser than some conferences are used to, and we like the team that doesn't foul, and forces long possessions defensively, against a team reliant on getting to the line. The most similar game last year was the 7/10 game between Texas A&M (45% FTA/FGA) against Penn State (26% FTA/FGA allowed), a game that Penn State won comfortably by 17 as a dog.

Pick published: Mar 21 3:51pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 754

Spread

Morehead St. +11.5 +100

Lost: 69-85

Morehead St. vs. Illinois

Thu Mar 21 • 3:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Morehead State wins the game or loses by fewer than 12 points against Illinois.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick for Thursday's First Round, and it's also a play based on trend analysis.
  • Illinois is a top 10 offensive team but their defensive numbers are very poor for a top at-large, and they rank near the bottom of D1 in turnovers forced.
  • Recent high seeds with that profile have underachieved. 2021 2 seed Ohio State losing to Oral Roberts is a prominent example, but it also includes 2021 2 seed Iowa not covering in first round, then getting blown out by Oregon, 2018 4 seeds Arizona and Wichita State losing outrgiht to Buffalo and Marshall respectively.

Pick published: Mar 18 9:45am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 743

Spread

Kent St. +4.5 -110

Won: 61-62

Kent St. vs. Akron

Sat Mar 16 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kent State wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points against Akron.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trend analysis.
  • Kent State has played better with their current lineup, and has put together two of their best performances in the MAC tournament.
  • Akron has been struggling on offense. Their overall rating over the last six games has been lower, even though opponents have shot under 30% from three in the last 4 and 5 of the last 6. The issue is turnovers and overall offensive efficiency.
  • Kent State ranks inside the top 100 in turnover rate, and we'll play the underdog who is peaking against a team that could be vulnerable and struggling on offense.

Pick published: Mar 16 3:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 627

Spread

Texas A&M +2.5 -110

Lost: 90-95

Texas A&M vs. Florida

Sat Mar 16 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points against Florida.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean, and a pick based on roster trends.
  • One word: Obaseki. Okay, more than one, but after a terrible stretch through SEC play where they really struggled on defense, Buzz Williams went to a true-3 guard offense, inserting Manny Obaseki to play as a starter with Tyrece Radford and Wade Taylor. 
  • The results have been huge, a Game Score over +22, scoring over 80 points a game, and the three combining for 75 in the win over Kentucky yesterday. Obaseki (40% from three) has brought an element this team was lacking, as they were really struggling on offense playing a bigger player at the 3 with Radford and Taylor all year, who was a worse shooter.

Pick published: Mar 16 3:00pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 615

Spread

Florida +4.5 -108

Won: 102-88

Florida vs. Alabama

Fri Mar 15 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points against Alabama.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on roster trend analysis.
  • Alabama's rating is a little inflated by being able to beat up on really bad teams, and their average rating against top competition is lower.
  • Florida plays at pace like Alabama, and has had success in both games against the Tide in the regular season, winning by 18 in Gainesville and losing in OT at Alabama (and covering) in a game where they had a 9-point lead with six minutes left.
  • So we will continue to fade this Alabama defense, which ranks outside the top 100 in efficiency, when getting points against them.

Pick published: Mar 15 6:07pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 825

Spread

San Diego St. -4.5 -115

Won: 86-70

San Diego St. vs. Utah St.

Fri Mar 15 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Diego State wins the game by more than 4 points against Utah State.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on roster trend analysis.
  • Both teams are coming off OT wins in the quarterfinals, Utah State's margin ended up being 12 points in OT, against a depleted Fresno State team, but it was a much worse performance than San Diego State against host UNLV.
  • Utah State was without starting freshman guard Mason Falslev, who missed the quarterfinal against Fresno State, and based on the coach's comments yesterday, is not likely to be ready a day later.

Pick published: Mar 15 6:07pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 867

Spread

Boston College +5.5 -110

Lost: 60-66

Boston College vs. Virginia

Thu Mar 14 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boston College wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 against Virginia.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trend analysis and lineup trends.
  • Virginia has really struggled on offense down the stretch, with four really poor performances on offense in the last 7 games. The average Game Score has only been +3.6 over that span, after being over +11 in all games prior.
  • Boston College is coming off a 21-point win over Clemson in the previous round. Three of BC's best four Game Scores have come in the last four contests. While some of that has been driven by poor opponent 3-point rates, they have also dominated on the offensive glass for four straight games, and limited opponents to under 48% on two-point shots in all four, after doing that only three times in ACC play up until that point.

Pick published: Mar 14 5:57pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 733

Spread

Stanford +8.0 -108

Lost: 62-79

Stanford vs. Washington St.

Thu Mar 14 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Stanford wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points against Washington St.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trend analysis and lineup trends.
  • Stanford is better with the current lineup playing. In the 13 games with the current lineup (which starts with freshman point guard Kanaan Carlyle taking over, and excludes the three games missed by Spencer Jones), the Cardinal have a +7.8 rating versus +4.6 in all other games.
  • Washington State has had a great season, and has been better overall since Jaylen Wells became a starter. However, they closed poorly after the Arizona upset win at Tucson, and it has largely been because of defense. The last four opponents have had an effective field goal percentage of 52.8% or better (and it is not driven by extreme outside shooting splits), after holding 8 of the 9 previous opponents under 50% effective FG%.

Pick published: Mar 14 5:57pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 779

Spread

Kansas State +8.0 -110

Lost: 57-76

Kansas State vs. Iowa State

Thu Mar 14 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas State wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points against Iowa State.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trend analysis and matchups.
  • Our raw power rating difference (7.8) is very similar to the game line but we have reason to believe that there is value on Kansas State when digging in.
  • Iowa State's rating is a bit inflated by their performance against cupcakes. Against the weakest 8 opponents in the non-conference, they had an average Game Score of +27.0 vs. +16.8 in all other games.
  • Iowa State was substantially better at home than road/neutral situations this year, Iowa State's average home Game Score was +23.8 and road/neutral was +13.8 (average venue expectation should be adjusted for in the Game Score, so these are extreme splits after already accounting for that).
  • Since K-State went to starting lineup switch to go with more guards, starting Dai Dai Ames and bringing David N'Guessan off the bench, their average rating is +12.4 over 11 games, versus +8.8 for all previous games.

Pick published: Mar 14 5:57pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 755

Spread

Ohio -9.5 -110

Won: 82-55

Western Michigan vs. Ohio

Thu Mar 14 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ohio wins the game against Western Michigan by more than 9 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • Some of the model factors being picked up are related to Western Michigan's low rate of turnovers forced versus turnovers committed, and Ohio's advantage there.
  • Ohio is 11-2 ATS against teams ranked outside the top 200 in offensive turnover rate, and only 5-12 against all others.
  • Western Michigan is ranked 321st nationally in offensive turnover rate.
  • Western Michigan did upset Ohio by 2 at home in their only meeting this year, one of the two non-covers for Ohio against poor turnover teams, but early foul trouble and an outside shooting percentage advantage actually negated the turnover advantage Ohio had (+8), and Ohio did almost come back from a 10-point deficit late with their ability to create pressure.

Pick published: Mar 14 5:57pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 718

Spread

Texas Tech +3.5 -110

Won: 81-67

Brigham Young vs. Texas Tech

Thu Mar 14 • 12:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas Tech wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points against BYU.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our lineup analysis and trends.
  • Both teams are playing really well right now, but we show value on Texas Tech being better than perception based on recent lineup performance. Tech has overcome injuries, and the loss of Warren Washington (who has missed 4 straight and 6 of last 7) has resulted in a big minutes increase for sophomore Robert Jennings, who has responded with strong offensive rebound numbers.
  • Over the last 10 games, Tech has an average Game Score of +15.4 (three points better than all other games) and three of their best performances of the year have come in the last three games.

Pick published: Mar 14 10:44am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 752

Spread

Michigan St. -6.5 -110

Won: 77-67

Minnesota vs. Michigan St.

Thu Mar 14 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Michigan State wins the game by more than 6 points against Minnesota.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • We also show slight value on this line in our adjust lineup spreads.
  • Michigan State is 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS against teams in the top 50 at avoiding turnovers, and 16-7-1 ATS against all others. Minnesota ranks outside the top 200 in that category.
     

Pick published: Mar 14 10:44am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 736

Spread

Penn St. -6.5 -110

Won: 66-57

Michigan vs. Penn St.

Wed Mar 13 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Penn State wins the game by more than 6 points against Michigan.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trend analysis, as these two teams have gone in the complete opposite direction over the last month.
  • In my review notes, I wrote "has this Michigan team given up?" and it's a fair question in looking at their season. After a 5-5 ATS start, they are a woeful 3-18 ATS. 12 of the last 13 losses are by double digits, and the last 3 losses are by 30, 23, and then by 15 at home to Nebraska on Senior Night, in a game where they allowed Nebraska to shoot 72% on two-point attempts.
  • Since January 20th, the average Michigan Game Score is -2.1, compared to +8.2 for all previous games, a steep drop of more than 10 points that is mostly not due to injury.
  • Olivier Nkamhoua was lost for the season four games ago, and provides the best defender, and with him out, the two-point defense has been pretty bad.
  • Penn State, meanwhile is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 under first year coach Mike Rhoades, and that run corresponds with point guard Kanye Clary being hurt, and then being dismissed from the team after returning as a backup. Ace Baldwin slid over to the point guard role full-time without Clary and the team has thrived.

Pick published: Mar 13 8:40am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, Caesars.

Rot# 688

Spread

Arkansas -6.0 -110

Lost: 90-85

Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas

Wed Mar 13 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arkansas wins the game by more than 6 points against Vanderbilt.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our roster trend analysis.
  • Arkansas has played much better recently after a year full of lineup turnover and inconsistency and injuries.
  • In the most similar games to their recent rotation usage, they are +3 points better than the full season average.
  • In the last 7 games with the current lineup, they are 6-1 ATS and a +15.6 Game Score average, similar to their preseason expectation.
  • The only bad performance they have had during that stretch was against Vanderbilt, in what was Vandy's single best Game Score result of the season. Trevon Brazile for Arkansas fouled out after only 17 minutes of playing in that game, and Arkansas had to use different post rotations due to foul trouble.

Pick published: Mar 13 8:40am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 698

Spread

Southern California -3.5 -102

Won: 80-74

Southern California vs. Washington

Wed Mar 13 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: USC wins the game over Washington in the Pac-12 Quarterfinals.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick, and also a pick based on our roster trend analysis.
  • These are two teams going in the opposite directions, and USC just won at Washington two weeks ago as part of their improved stretch. Washington just fired head coach Mike Hopkins at the conclusion of the regular season.
  • With the current optimal starting lineup, USC is 10-4 ATS with an average game rating of +15.6 and is coming off an outright win over Arizona. They are 5-12 ATS with different lineups this year.

Pick published: Mar 13 8:40am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 671

Team Future

Gonzaga to win WCC Tournament -140

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Gonzaga wins the WCC Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Gonzaga has been playing much better since Ben Gregg was inserted in the lineup for Dusty Stromer, putting up a 20.0 Game Score (for perspective, a typical No. 1 seed will be around there or just above it for the season) in 8 of the last 14 games.
  • Saint Mary's is injury-impacted, losing the Josh Jefferson for the season on February 10th. 
  • For the same reasons we had Gonzaga as a Staff Pick to win at St. Mary's as an underdog in the season finale, we like Gonzaga here, and our estimates are 63% to win the WCC tournament.

Pick published: Mar 11 12:37pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Team Future

Charleston to win Coastal Athletic Conference Tournament +225

Won

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Charleston wins the 2024 Coastal Athletic Conference Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Charleston is the No. 1 seed and has the shortest odds to win the Coastal Athletic, and we still see value taking into account their current form.
  • If you exclude the first four games of the year, when Charleston got off to a poor start, Charleston's average Game Score is +5.9, a +1.7 point improvement over the full season rating.
  • Looking at the most similar games by lineup/minute usage, Charleston's average is +6.9, nearly 3 points better than the full season average.
  • Charleston enters the CAA Tournament on a nine-game win streak and playing their best basketball of the year, and over the final four games they have won by an average of 17 points and covered the spread in all, by an average of 11 points.
  • After running the CAA Conference simulations with Charleston's rating being about two points better than the season average, they win the tournament 36% of the time, providing value at the current line. (We would play this down to about +200).

Pick published: Mar 4 5:27pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Spread

Milwaukee +3.5 +100

Lost: 76-83

Milwaukee vs. Oakland

Tue Mar 12 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Milwaukee wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in the Horizon League final.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on our lineup trend analysis.
  • Milwaukee is better than their full season power rating (and the spread is in line with our full season rating for both teams), because of numerous injuries and lineup changes and the current lineup being an improvement over their previous performance.
  • The team's best player and point guard BJ Freeman missed 8 games and didn't start in 5 others while working back from injury, and the team is better when he is fully healthy.
  • Milwaukee also replaced several inefficient shooters with better offensive players, due to both injury and ineffectiveness, and the current lineup is much better at surrounding Freeman with guys that can hit shots. 
  • As a result, we would put this at closer to Milwaukee +1.5 and see it as a playable opportunity on current form due to current lineup improvement.

Pick published: Mar 12 6:30pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 623

Spread

East Tennessee St. +9.5 -105

Won: 69-76

East Tennessee St. vs. Samford

Mon Mar 11 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: East Tennessee State wins the game or loses by fewer than 10 points in Southern Conf Final.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable pick based on our lineup and roster trend analysis.
  • East Tennessee State is a little better than their raw power rating with the current lineup. They performed worse when starter Karon Boyd was out, as they have limited depth and the players that played more minutes in his place were inefficient underclassmen.
  • Since Boyd's return in late January, ETSU's average Game Score has been +0.9, versus -3.5 for all previous games. Three of their best Game Scores have come in the last two weeks, with two coming in the conference tournament.
  • Samford's A.J. Staton-McCray, the team's leading defensive rebounder from the wing position, missed several games and has not started and played only 21 minutes off the bench in the last two tournament games. Samford rates poorly in defensive rebounding, and that's ETSU's strength (24th nationally, with Boyd being a big factor). So if Staton-McCray is limited again, the underdog ETSU Bucs could have a rebounding edge to stay in the game.

Pick published: Mar 11 12:37pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars.

Rot# 865

Team Future

Florida Atlantic to win American Conference regular season title +140

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Florida Atlantic gets the No. 1 seed in the American Conference after winning the regular season title.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections in the American are 49% for Florida Atlantic versus 30% for Memphis to win the conference. 
  • We have Florida Atlantic power-rated as the better team, while Memphis is ranked higher in the human polls, and is the betting market favorite slightly over FAU, so we like getting plus odds here on FAU.
  • You can also read Ken Pomeroy's blog post on Memphis' ranking here, as further support on why we think we are getting a little value here based on public overrating Memphis.

Pick published: Jan 17 4:27pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Team Future

Houston to win Big 12 regular season title +340

Won

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Houston gets the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 tournament after winning regular season title.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Houston is a 34% chance to win the Big 12 regular season.
  • Houston has started 1-2 in conference with two consecutive road losses at top quality opponents, after starting the year 14-0, so we are getting a little dip here.
  • The Big 12 is the toughest conference this year, and our projection is that even the best teams will finish with around 5-6 conference losses.
  • We are getting line value specifically at FanDuel that we want to grab at the +340 price (FanDuel has Kansas as the favorite at +220). We show little value at other books, where the price is +175 at Caesars and +200 at BetMGM.

Pick published: Jan 17 4:27pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

North Carolina Central to win MEAC regular season title +250

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: NC Central gets the No. 1 seed in the MEAC tournament after winning regular season title.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections give NC Central a 42% chance of winning the MEAC regular season title.
  • Our review of the "With or Without You" scores for NC Central also shows some potential value on them being better than their overall rating. They had multiple games without key players, including starting point guard Fred Cleveland. But in games where the guard trio of Cleveland, Po'Boigh King, and Ja'Darius Harris all start and play significant minutes (including the most recent 6 games), their rating is +0.2, versus -7.1 in the other games, and -3.3 rating across all games.
  • They also have a win in hand against conference co-favorite Norfolk State, who they just beat on January 8th.

Pick published: Jan 17 4:27pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Team Future

Alabama to Win SEC regular season title +370

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Alabama earns the No. 1 seed in the 2024 SEC Tournament by winning the regular season title.

Staff notes:

  • The current projection for Alabama is a 40% to win the SEC regular season title, after starting conference play 4-0.
  • Alabama is one of three SEC teams ranked inside our top 7 in the predictive power ratings, and is also rated No. 7 in Ken Pomeroy's ratings.
  • This FanDuel line is off-market from some other books, where Alabama is +180 to win at Caesars and +210 at DraftKings.
  • The SEC is a tough conference, and there's plenty of competition with Auburn and Tennessee at the top, but we would play this down to +235 (30% break-even odds)

Pick published: Jan 17 4:27pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

Purdue to win Big Ten regular season title +175

Won

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Purdue finishes 1st in the Big Ten Conference and earns the No. 1 seed entering the Big Ten tourney.

Staff notes:

  • This is value we see based on the first night of results in college basketball, and this futures market not shifting noticeably.
  • Purdue won their first game by 53 points over Samford, more than doubling them up, and while people may have a tendency to lump all these mid-majors together, Samford is not a bottom of D1 team, ranking inside our top 200, and finishing in a tie for first place last year in the Southern Conference.
  • Meanwhile, Michigan State, who had our second-highest odds to win the Big Ten in the preseason, lost at home to James Madision in the season opener, dropping down from No. 5 to No. 20 in our power ratings. Michigan State was being hyped up in markets and polls, but hasn't finished above a No. 7 seed in three straight years entering this one, and there's a possibility that they were just overvalued.
  • After these shifts, we project Purdue, who is the No. 1 team in our power ratings, to have over a 50% chance of winning the Big Ten regular season title, at odds where the break-even is 36.4%.

Pick published: Nov 7 2:10pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Team Future

Southern California to win Pac-12 regular season title +350

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: USC wins the Pac-12 regular season title and earns the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Our automated projections have USC at 23.6% to win the Pac-12, making them the second-favorite behind Arizona.
  • USC won their season opener last night in impressive fashion over Kansas State, 82-69, in a game where they went on an early 14-2 run and led by double digits throughout, holding Kansas State to 37% effective field goal percentage. 
  • Freshman point guard Isaiah Collier, one of the top recruits in the nation, had an impressive debut, scoring 15 points in the first half, and backed up some of the hype about this incoming freshman class for USC. 
  • USC now is inside our top 10 in power rating, and we see the Pac-12 as a two-horse race between USC and Arizona, with UCLA expected to take a step back with so many key losses, and see relative value on USC here, if the depth, size, and Collier at point guard all come together.

Pick published: Nov 7 2:10pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Spread

Southern California +8.5 -110

Won: 78-65

Arizona at Southern California

Sat Mar 9 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: USC wins the game or loses by fewer than 9 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our lineup analysis and roster trends.
  • USC has been substantially better with their preferred starting five. They have now gone 9-4 ATS with their best starting lineup, with a power rating of +14.4 in those games, versus 5-12 with a +2.0 power rating in all others.
  • Over their last six, after star freshman point guard Isaiah Collier has returnd to the lineup, they have gone 4-2 with the only two losses coming in double OT (at Colorado) and by 3 at Washington State in a game they led throughout.

Pick published: Mar 9 9:15am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 728

Spread

Connecticut -9.5 -110

Won: 74-60

Connecticut at Providence

Sat Mar 9 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Connecticut wins the game by more than 10 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on our lineup and roster trend analysis.
  • Connecticut is better than their full season rating if you exclude earlier games missed by Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan, and they should be at full strength today.
  • Providence meanwhile has been a little worse than the full season rating without Bryce Hopkins.
  • In the earlier meeting, Connecticut won by 9 even though they shot 4-of-23 from beyond the arc (Providence was 4-of-18), and Providence's two best players, Carter and Oduro, both scored 20 points.
  • Connecticut's depth should be too much for Providence, and we would put this one at about 2.5 points higher based on the current lineups.

Pick published: Mar 9 9:15am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 705

Spread

Southern Utah -5.0 -110

Won: 68-59

Southern Utah at Texas Rio Grande Valley

Sat Mar 9 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Southern Utah wins the game by more than 5 on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model pick for both spread and Moneyline (at -218) for Saturday, and you could play either.
  • So far this year, our top-rated model spread picks are 53% and our top-rated model plays are 30-24 for +24.0 units.

Pick published: Mar 9 9:15am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 701

Spread

Arkansas +14.5 -110

Won: 88-92

Arkansas at Alabama

Sat Mar 9 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arkansas wins the game or loses by fewer than 15 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our roster and lineup trend analysis.
  • No team has been as impacted by injuries as much as Arkansas, as 13 different players have started at least one game and they have used countless lineup combinations, and that explains in part their disappointing season (and low overall power rating).
  • But they have been noticeably better in the last 6 games, with the lineup of Battle/Mark/Ellis/Lawson + either Davis or Brazile (returning from injury and 7 missed games in a row).
  • In games where 5 of those 6 start, they are at +9.0 Game Score for season, and only +2.1 in all other games.
  • Meanwhile, Alabama is going the opposite direction, their defensive numbers have collapsed, and their rating is also inflated by some early season blowouts of their weakest opponents.
  • Alabama should have Latrell Wrightsell, who played 8 minutes last game, back, but even with him Alabama doesn't rate as highly in looking at similar games with their projected lineup.

Pick published: Mar 9 9:15am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 603

Spread

Ball St. +5.5 -110

Lost: 70-80

Ball St. at Bowling Green

Fri Mar 8 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ball State wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model pick for Friday, and also a play based on lineup analysis.
  • Ball State's average Game Score has been much better once we account for the earlier games Davion Bailey missed, and Ball State just put up a strong performance to get a win in the last game despite being without leading scorer Bashir Jihad, who missed with back tightness after a fall in the previous game. Ball State is now playing to earn a spot into the MAC Tournament in this game and it's a de facto playoff game for them.

Pick published: Mar 8 12:48pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 859

Spread

Hampton +3.5 -105

Won: 56-55

Hampton vs. Elon University

Fri Mar 8 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Hampton wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Friday in CBB, and also a play we like based on our review of the lineup trends.
  • The current spread matches our full season numbers for these teams, but Elon lost starting point guard Rob Higgins and he has been out 7 straight games. Their worst Game rating was in the final regular season game, and also the 2nd and 3rd worst are over the last month and a half.
  • Hampton's game results have been a little better with the current lineup from the last few games, so we think there's some value in these two teams being a lot closer in current rating.

Pick published: Mar 8 12:48pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 879

Moneyline

Belmont To Win -110

Lost: 62-67

Belmont vs. Northern Iowa

Fri Mar 8 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Belmont wins the game on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a play based on our lineup analysis.
  • Belmont has been playing at a substantially higher level over the last 9 games (they were also a successful staff pick last Sunday, and are 8-1 ATS after yesterday's game, covering over half by double digits).
  • That change corresponds with point guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie returning from a month-long injury to start conference play, and joining a new starting lineup rotation, that has only been in use for these four games.
  • Belmont's offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have been stellar during this run, and we are willing to bet on the chemistry and improvement of this current lineup not being reflected fully in the line. Belmont is averaging a Game Score of +11.5 (at-large tournament quality) in the last 9 games versus -1.1 for the previous 23 with different lineups and with Gillespie's injury.
  • We list this as a moneyline play here, but it is playable at the more common -1 (-110) spread available at other books.

Pick published: Mar 8 12:48pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 871

Moneyline

Texas State To Win +148

Won: 75-59

Texas State vs. Southern Miss

Thu Mar 7 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas State wins the game against Southern Miss on Thursday, March 7.

Staff notes:

  • Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
  • At the time of posting, our models currently have this as a strong play up to +139.

Pick published: Mar 7 12:06pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 779

Over/Under

Saint Joseph's at Richmond Under 144.5 -110

Won: 139 points

Wed Mar 6 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Saint Joseph's and Richmond combine for fewer than 144.5 points on Wednesday, March 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Wednesday.

Pick published: Mar 6 12:28pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 676

Over/Under

Loyola (MD) at Navy Over 131.5 -115

Lost: 112 points

Tue Mar 5 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Loyola-Maryland and Navy combine for more than 131 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is tied for our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Tuesday. You can also play this at the more common 132.5 Over -110 available at other books.

Pick published: Mar 5 5:04pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306519

Over/Under

Bowling Green at Western Michigan Over 143.5 -110

Lost: 138 points

Tue Mar 5 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bowling Green and Western Michigan combine for more than 143 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is tied for our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Tuesday, and this number is getting a 0.5 point of value versus our consensus line.

Pick published: Mar 5 5:04pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 607

Spread

Florida Gulf Coast -3.5 -110

Lost: 63-69

Queens University of Charlotte at Florida Gulf Coast

Mon Mar 4 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida Gulf Coast wins the game by more than 3 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model spread pick, but is a pick based on our With Or Without You analysis and lineup trends.
  • Florida Gulf Coast hosts Queens in the 7 vs. 8 game in the first round of the Atlantic Sun tonight.
  • FGCU's current lineup has been used for the last 12 games (other than senior night, when two quickly came off the bench), and over that span they are 9-3 ATS and -0.2 Game Score, compared to -8.0 Game Score average for the first 19 games.
  • Isaiah Thompson and Cyrus Largie had both missed games in the middle of the season, when the team struggled, and they are better with the current lineup, while the current spread is in line with the full season rating.

Pick published: Mar 4 5:27pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306662

Spread

Belmont -10.5 -110

Won: 83-66

Evansville at Belmont

Sun Mar 3 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Belmont wins the game by more than 10 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Sunday, and also a play based on our With or Without You analysis of player lineups and trends.
  • Looking only at the top half of games where Belmont's lineup/minutes distribution was most similar to the most recent games, Belmont's average Game Score is +7.4, versus +1.7 across all games.
  • Those similar games exclude games where Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Cade Tyson missed games, and where Isaiah Walker was starting and playing more minutes.
  • With the currrent lineup over the last 7 games (the only time all year that lineup has been used), Belmont is 6-1 ATS and the last 5 wins have all come by 14 or more points outright.

Pick published: Mar 3 8:53am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 846

Spread

Gonzaga +2.5 -105

Won: 70-57

Gonzaga at Saint Mary's

Sat Mar 2 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Gonzaga wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on our "With Or Without You" lineup analysis and review of teams.
  • St. Mary's is going for an undefeated WCC regular season, after beating Gonzaga by 2 on the road earlier this year, in a game where the Zags went only 3 of 14 beyond the arc, and still led all game until inside the final 4 minutes.
  • Gonzaga has been about 4 points better since they made a lineup switch to Ben Gregg over inefficient Dusty Stromer in the starting lineup in mid-January.
  • St. Mary's lost starter Joshua Jefferson, the best defensive rebounder, for the season three games ago. While they have been able to handle weaker opponents without him, this is not a deep team and this type of matchup is more likely to be impacted by his absence.

Pick published: Mar 2 8:43am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 801

Spread

Southern California +4.5 -110

Won: 82-75

Southern California at Washington

Sat Mar 2 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: USC wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and studying the teams.
  • USC has been a disappointment this year after having high preseason expectations. They have also battled a lot of injuries and lineup changes. When the preferred starting lineup of Collier/Ellis/Johnson/Rodman/Morgan have all started, USC is 8-3 ATS with an average rating of +14.3, and when they have started any other lineup, they are 5-12 ATS with an average rating of only +2.0.
  • USC has had this lineup for the last four games, tied for the longest such stretch with the same starters, and have beat Utah, lost to Colorado and failed to cover by only a point, then beat UCLA as a road dog and just lost by 3 at Washington State as +8 dog, after leading all game, having a 9-point lead with 10 minutes left, and never trailing by more than 4 all game.
  • So we think we are getting value on a USC team that is better with the current lineup healthy finally, with the power rating in line with their full season average across all lineups.

Pick published: Mar 2 8:43am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 695

Over/Under

Air Force at Utah St. Under 137.5 -110

Won: 132 points

Fri Mar 1 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Air Force and Utah State combine for fewer than 137.5 points on Friday, March 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Friday.

Pick published: Mar 1 12:09pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars.

Rot# 892

Spread

DePaul +19.5 -110

Lost: 58-91

DePaul at Xavier

Wed Feb 28 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: DePaul wins the game or loses by fewer than 20 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • In addition, we like this play based on recent form and news.
  • Xavier coach Sean Miller has been rumored as a candidate to move to Ohio State after the Buckeyes fired Chris Holtmann on Feb. 14th. Xavier has played poorly in the last three games, and over the last 10 games, Xavier has an average power rating of only +5.7, compared to +13.4 in the first 17 games.
  • DePaul has been slightly better (by about 3 points on average) in games that point guard Chico Carter has played, though he has gone 0-10 from three-point range in the last three games since returning from a rib injury that caused him to miss 7 straight Big East games.

Pick published: Feb 27 5:04pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 701

Over/Under

Bucknell at Loyola (MD) Over 131.5 -110

Lost: 114 points

Wed Feb 28 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bucknell and Loyola (MD) combine for more than 131.5 points on Wednesday, February 28.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Wednesday.

Pick published: Feb 27 7:14pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306519

Spread

Utah St. -10.5 -110

Lost: 77-73

Utah St. at Fresno St.

Tue Feb 27 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah State wins the game by more than 10 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
  • Playable picks on road favorites so far this year are 170-144-5 ATS (54.1%). Road favorites rated above 55.0%, like Utah State, have gone 19-10 ATS this year.
  • Fresno State is very thin, having lost two starters for the season in the last three weeks, and center Enoch Boakye has also missed the last two games and his status is unknown. If Boakye misses the game, Fresno State will have be playing walk-ons off the bench, and have no one taller than 6'7" playing.

Pick published: Feb 27 5:04pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 657

Over/Under

Ball St. at Central Michigan Over 133.5 -115

Won: 150 points

Tue Feb 27 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ball State and Central Michigan combine for more than 133 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Tuesday, rated at over 59%, making it the highest-rated model play of the last seven days. 

Pick published: Feb 26 4:56pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 605

Spread

Texas A&M-CC -12.0 -105

Push: 91-79

Texas A&M-CC at Houston Christian

Mon Feb 26 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M Corpus Christi wins the game by more than 12 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Monday in CBB.
  • Playable picks on road favorites so far this year are 170-144-4 ATS (54.1%). 
  • In the 14 games (including 10 of last 11) that Texas A&M Corpus Christi has played with their current starting lineup, they have a +4.4 average Game Score, versus -6.0 in the other 13 games.

Pick published: Feb 26 4:56pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306645

Spread

Youngstown St. -5.5 -112

Won: 71-59

Youngstown St. at Green Bay

Sun Feb 25 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Youngstown State wins the game by more than 5 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • Green Bay's best player, Noah Reynolds, missed Friday's game against IPFW, where they had their worst performance of the year and lost by 26 as a 2-point favorite. (He also missed the first match against Youngstown, when Green Bay pulled a big upset as an 11.5-point dog).
  • Playable picks on road favorites so far this year are 169-141-4 ATS (54.5%). 

Pick published: Feb 25 11:32am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 845

Over/Under

Army at Bucknell Over 123.5 -110

Lost: 95 points

Sun Feb 25 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Army and Bucknell combine for more than 123 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Sunday.

Pick published: Feb 25 11:32am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306623

Over/Under

Sam Houston St. at Texas-El Paso Over 140.5 -105

Lost: 119 points

Sat Feb 24 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Sam Houston and UTEP combine for more than 140 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Pick published: Feb 24 10:49am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 787

Over/Under

Central Michigan at Miami (OH) Over 132.5 -110

Won: 148 points

Sat Feb 24 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Central Michigan and Miami (Ohio) combine for more than 132 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Pick published: Feb 24 10:49am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 665

Spread

High Point -11.5 -105

Won: 74-59

High Point at Charleston Southern

Sat Feb 24 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: High Point wins the game by more than 11 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
  • Playable picks on road favorites so far this year are 166-137-4 ATS (54.7%). 

Pick published: Feb 24 10:49am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 306571

Spread

Baylor +2.5 -106

Lost: 76-82

Houston at Baylor

Sat Feb 24 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baylor wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated playable model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, playable picks on home underdogs are 20-12-1 ATS.
  • Houston is 1-5 ATS in Big 12 conference games in their first year in the conference, and have shown a strong performance split on opponent quality, playing 7.2 points worse after adjusting for expectations, when playing the top 16 toughest games on the schedule versus the 10 easiest opponents.

Pick published: Feb 24 10:49am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 608

Spread

Saint Peter's +1.5 -108

Won: 70-65

Saint Peter's at Mount St. Mary's

Fri Feb 23 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Saint Peter's wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Friday in CBB.
  • Saint Peter's is 12-4 ATS in games where Corey Washington, the team's most efficient offensive player, plays, and only 2-5 ATS without him. They have covered the last two games by 13 points each since his return from a 5-game absence.
  • Saint Peter's has an average power rating of -0.5 in games with Washington and -10.6 without him.

Pick published: Feb 23 2:02pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 873

Over/Under

Central Conn. St. at Wagner Over 125.0 -108

Won: 145 points

Thu Feb 22 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Central Connecticut State and Wagner combine for more than 125 points on Thursday, Fedbruary 22.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Thursday.

Pick published: Feb 22 1:15pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306533

Over/Under

Bucknell at Holy Cross Over 135.5 -110

Lost: 132 points

Wed Feb 21 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bucknell and Holy Cross combine for more than 135.5 points on Wednesday, February 21.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for Wednesday.

Pick published: Feb 21 12:40pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 306505

Over/Under

Wofford at Chattanooga Under 145.0 -102

Lost: 146 points

Wed Feb 21 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wofford and Chattanooga combine for fewer than 145 points on Wednesday, February 21.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for Wednesday.

Pick published: Feb 20 6:42pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 676

Over/Under

Texas Christian at Texas Tech Under 147.0 -110

Lost: 163 points

Tue Feb 20 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: TCU and Texas Tech combine for fewer than 147 points on Tuesday, February 20.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for Tuesday.

Pick published: Feb 20 12:31pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 640

Spread

Miami (Pick) -110

Lost: 77-85

Miami at Boston College

Sat Feb 17 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami wins the game against Boston College on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our highest-rated model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
  • Miami is not a deep team and has dealt with a lot of missed games among the starters with injury.
  • The current starting lineup of Nijel Pack, Wooga Poplar, Matthew Cleveland, KyShawn George and Norchad Omier have had only three games all year where all were in the starting lineup.
  • Freshman KyShawn George just missed all of one game and most of the other with injury, but returned to the lineup in the last game.
  • In the 10 games where George starts and plays at least 20 minutes, Miami's power rating is +14.1, compared to +7.4 in all other games, so there could be some value in Miami's lineup being better than their full season numbers.
  • Miami opponents have made 40% of threes (49-of-123) over the last five games, much higher than the full season rate of 31%, and provides another area of positive regression potential for Miami.

Pick published: Feb 16 4:17pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 695

Over/Under

Louisiana State at South Carolina Under 144.5 -110

Won: 127 points

Sat Feb 17 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: LSU and South Carolina combine for fewer than 145 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday, and the current FanDuel line of 144.5 is offering a full point of value relative to our consensus line.

Pick published: Feb 16 4:17pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 682

Over/Under

Marquette at Connecticut Under 148.5 -110

Won: 134 points

Sat Feb 17 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Marquette and Connecticut combine for fewer than 149 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is currently our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday. The FanDuel line of 148.5 is also a full point of value over our consensus line of 147.5.

Pick published: Feb 16 4:17pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 668

Spread

Iowa State -7.5 -105

Won: 82-74

Texas Tech at Iowa State

Sat Feb 17 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State wins the game by more than 7 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Iowa State is a strong home team, 12-2 ATS at home this year, including last Saturday's Staff Pick over TCU.
  • Some model factors include Texas Tech's higher 3-point and free throw percentage make rate in the last seven games (versus full season) and Iowa State's defensive efficiency numbers, low opponent field goal attempts, and percentage of opponent attempts beyond the arc.

Pick published: Feb 16 4:17pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 602

Moneyline

San Diego St. To Win -220

Won: 81-70

New Mexico at San Diego St.

Fri Feb 16 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Diego State wins the game against New Mexico on Friday, February 15.

Staff notes:

  • Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
  • At the time of posting, our models currently have this as a strong play up to -235.

Pick published: Feb 15 6:51pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 896

Over/Under

Minnesota at Purdue Under 146.5 -110

Lost: 160 points

Thu Feb 15 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota and Purdue combine for fewer than 146.5 points on Thursday, February 15.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Thursday).

Pick published: Feb 15 12:22pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 778

Spread

UCLA +1.5 -120

Won: 64-60

Colorado at UCLA

Thu Feb 15 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UCLA wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB, at lines where UCLA is a one-point favorite at other books in early releases.
  • The DraftKings' line is providing extra line value at early release, with them as the underdog.
  • Since an embarrassing 90-44 loss at Utah in early January, UCLA is 7-1 SU, and 6-1-1 ATS, with the only loss coming against Arizona.
  • UCLA's average Game Score over the last 8 games is +15.4 (closer to their preseason rating expectation) compared to only +2.1 over the first 16 games.
  • Freshman Brandon Williams has moved into the starting lineup over the last five games, and the team has continued its improved play, after starting 4 different players in that spot over the first 16 games of the season.

Pick published: Feb 14 5:18pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 802

Over/Under

Merrimack at Stonehill Over 130.5 -110

Lost: 129 points

Thu Feb 15 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Merrimack and Stonehill combine for more than 130.5 points on Thursday, February 15.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Thursday).

Pick published: Feb 15 12:19pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 306541

Over/Under

South Carolina at Auburn Under 137.5 -110

Lost: 162 points

Wed Feb 14 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: South Carolina and Auburn combine for fewer than 137.5 points on Wednesday, February 14.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Wednesday).

Pick published: Feb 14 12:48pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 700

Over/Under

Jacksonville at Kennesaw St. Under 153.5 -110

Won: 127 points

Wed Feb 14 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jacksonville and Kennesaw State combine for fewer than 153.5 points on Wednesday, February 14.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Wednesday).

Pick published: Feb 14 12:46pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 306518

Spread

Penn St. +3.5 -110

Lost: 72-80

Michigan St. at Penn St.

Wed Feb 14 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Penn State wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick (and moneyline pick) for Wednesday.
  • Penn State's leading scorer, Kanye Clary, missed a couple of games with a facial injury, and Penn State actually surged to two of their best performances. Veteran point guard Ace Baldwin (transfer from VCU) took over the full point guard duties and has had 29 assists in the last two games, and Clary came off the bench in the last two.
  • Penn State is 4-0 ATS the spread with the current lineup and has put up their two best Game Scores all year.

Pick published: Feb 14 5:18pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 656

Over/Under

Florida State at Virginia Tech Under 151.5 -110

Lost: 158 points

Tue Feb 13 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida State and Virginia Tech combine for fewer than 151.5 points on Tuesday, February 13.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Tuesday)

Pick published: Feb 13 12:09pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 644

Over/Under

Georgetown at Creighton Under 150.5 -108

Lost: 166 points

Tue Feb 13 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgetown and Creighton combine for fewer than 150.5 points on Tuesday, February 13.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Tuesday).

Pick published: Feb 12 6:10pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 630

Over/Under

Minnesota at Iowa Under 154.5 -110

Lost: 175 points

Sun Feb 11 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota and Iowa combine for fewer than 154.5 points on Sunday, February 12.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Sunday.

Pick published: Feb 11 12:17pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 862

Spread

Incarnate Word -3.5 -110

Lost: 83-86

Incarnate Word at Houston Christian

Sat Feb 10 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Incarnate Word wins the game by more than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated playable model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
  • Houston Christian opponents have shot 62% from two-point range over the last three games, 

Pick published: Feb 10 11:06am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 306595

Over/Under

Buffalo at Georgia Southern Under 149.5 -108

Lost: 163 points

Sat Feb 10 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Buffalo and Georgia Southern combine for fewer than 150 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Pick published: Feb 10 10:53am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 676

Over/Under

New Orleans at Texas A&M Commerce Over 147.5 -106

Won: 172 points

Sat Feb 10 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Orleans and Texas A&M Commerce combine for more than 147 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Pick published: Feb 10 10:53am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306571

Spread

Iowa State -7.0 -110

Won: 71-59

Texas Christian at Iowa State

Sat Feb 10 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State wins the game by more than 7 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Top model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Iowa State is a high-pressure defense that defends the paint well, and creates turnovers. 46% of all FGA attempts against them are from beyond the arc.
  • Iowa State shows a pretty strong split based on whether the opponent tends to shoot a high rate of threes or not for the full season. Against teams that rank in the top 100 in three-point rate, they are only 3-4 ATS, but against teams ranked in the bottom 100 in three-point rate, like TCU, they are 9-1 ATS, and the only non-cover was the last home game against Kansas, when a last second bucket for Kansas got the backdoor cover by 0.5 point.
  • TCU has shot 43% from three in their last three games, a regression factor that is one of the model factors showing up.
  • Iowa State is a strong home team, 11-2 ATS at home this year.

Pick published: Feb 10 10:53am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 670

Over/Under

San Jose St. at Colorado St. Under 144.5 -114

Won: 113 points

Fri Feb 9 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Jose State and Colorado State combine for fewer than 143.5 points on Friday, February 9.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.
  • Our models have had high confidence Under plays on 3 of the past 5 Colorado State games, going 3-0 on those plays.
  • We're posting Under 144.5 at -114 odds, but this is available at 143.5 with -110 odds at other books. That's also a good play, according to our models. With about 2% of college basketbal totals pushing at whole numbers in this range, getting a full extra point for the -114 is worth it.

Pick published: Feb 9 12:22pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 890

Over/Under

San Diego St. at Air Force Under 134.5 -110

Lost: 141 points

Tue Feb 6 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Diego State and Air Force combine for fewer than 134.5 points on Tuesday, February 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Tuesday).

Pick published: Feb 5 6:03pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 662

Over/Under

Boise St. at Colorado St. Under 141.0 -115

Won: 137 points

Tue Feb 6 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boise State and Colorado State combine for fewer than 141 points on Tuesday, February 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Tuesday).

Pick published: Feb 5 5:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 650

Moneyline

Texas To Win -130

Lost: 65-70

Iowa State at Texas

Tue Feb 6 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas wins the game against Iowa State on Tuesday, February 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
  • The -130 line is slightly better than our consensus from global books. Our models have it as a strong play up to -138.

Pick published: Feb 5 6:07pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 642

Over/Under

Colorado St. at Fresno St. Under 139.5 -110

Won: 134 points

Sat Feb 3 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado State and Fresno State combine for fewer than 140 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.
  • The FanDuel line is providing a 0.5 point of value compared to the consensus line across sportsbooks.

Pick published: Feb 3 10:29am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 820

Over/Under

Cincinnati at Texas Tech Under 142.5 -110

Lost: 147 points

Sat Feb 3 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati and Texas Tech combine for fewer than 143 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is a top-rated college basketball O/U model play for today.
  • The FanDuel line of 142.5 is providing a point of value compared to the consensus line across books, but our play is rated at 141.5, so if that is all you have available, you can play that number.

Pick published: Feb 3 10:29am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 746

Moneyline

Southern Miss To Win +115

Lost: 55-60

Southern Miss at Texas State

Sat Feb 3 • 5:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Southern Miss wins the game against Texas State on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top-rated spread and moneyline pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Our top-rated moneyline picks are +16.1 units (45 games) so far this season.

Pick published: Feb 3 10:29am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 723

Spread

Troy -2.5 -110

Won: 78-74

Troy at Georgia St.

Sat Feb 3 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Troy wins the game by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated spread model pick for Saturday in CBB, rated above 55%, and the BetMGM line is 0.5 of value compared to the consensus we are seeing.
  • Spread picks rated at over 55% are 37-29-1 so far this year (56%)

Pick published: Feb 3 10:29am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 675

Spread

Southern Illinois -2.5 -106

Won: 74-71

Southern Illinois at Illinois-Chicago

Sat Feb 3 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Southern Illinois wins the game by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top-rated spread pick, rated above 55% in both our Decision Tree and Similar Games model, and is also a top-rated moneyline pick if you would rather play the ML.
  • Illinois-Chicago is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after an 8-2 ATS start in their first 10.

Pick published: Feb 3 10:29am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 631

Over/Under

San Jose St. at Nevada Under 142.5 -110

Lost: 150 points

Fri Feb 2 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Jose State and Nevada combine for fewer than 142.5 points on Friday, February 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today.

Pick published: Feb 2 12:12pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 890

Over/Under

San Diego at San Francisco Under 150.5 -110

Lost: 174 points

Thu Feb 1 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Diego and San Francisco combine for fewer than 150.5 points on Thursday, February 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today.

Pick published: Feb 1 12:09pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 838

Over/Under

Idaho State at Northern Colorado Under 148.5 -115

Lost: 177 points

Thu Feb 1 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Idaho State and Northern Colorado combine for fewer than 148.5 points on Thursday, February 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Thursday).

Pick published: Jan 31 7:30pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 774

Moneyline

Morehead St. To Win -190

Won: 68-49

Morehead St. at Tennessee St.

Thu Feb 1 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Morehead State beats Tennessee State on Thursday, February 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
  • The -190 line is also a good value compared to some other U.S. books. Our models have it as a strong play up to -193.

Pick published: Feb 1 12:17pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 781

Over/Under

Bellarmine at Kennesaw St. Under 150.0 -115

Lost: 191 points

Thu Feb 1 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bellarmine and Kennesaw State combine for fewer than 150 points on Thursday, February 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Thursday).

Pick published: Jan 31 7:31pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306546

Over/Under

Northern Iowa at Bradley Under 138.5 -112

Lost: 154 points

Wed Jan 31 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Northern Iowa and Bradley combine for fewer than 138.5 points on Wednesday, January 31.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Wednesday).

Pick published: Jan 30 7:17pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 702

Over/Under

Fresno St. at UNLV Under 141.5 -115

Lost: 147 points

Tue Jan 30 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Fresno State and UNLV combine for fewer than 141.5 points on Tuesday, January 30.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Tuesday, at the consensus line of 141.0. The 141.5 with -115 payout odds it roughly the same as 141.0 with -110 odds, which is also available at several books.

Pick published: Jan 30 12:03pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 660

Over/Under

Oklahoma State at Kansas Under 144.5 -112

Won: 137 points

Tue Jan 30 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oklahoma State and Kansas combine for fewer than 144.5 points on Tuesday, January 30.

Staff notes:

  • Be careful: there is also an Oklahoma at Kansas State game today, with a total in the 140s. Make sure you are betting on the correct game.
  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today, at the consensus line of 144.0. FanDuel is offering 144.5 at a -112 payout, which is a slightly better value than 144.0 at a -110 payout, which is available at some other books.

Pick published: Jan 30 12:07pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 652

Over/Under

Temple at East Carolina Over 135.5 -110

Lost: 134 points

Sun Jan 28 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Temple and East Carolina combine for more than 135 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Sunday, at the consensus line of 136.0. Caesars is offering the best line available, but can play to 136.5.

Pick published: Jan 28 11:37am ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 861

Over/Under

Cal Poly SLO at Hawaii Over 125.5 -110

Won: 156 points

Sat Jan 27 • 11:59pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cal Poly and Hawaii combine for more than 125 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Pick published: Jan 27 11:50am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 831

Moneyline

Liberty To Win -225

Lost: 62-73

Liberty at Jacksonville St.

Sat Jan 27 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Liberty wins the game against Jacksonville State on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a highly-rated moneyline play for Saturday.
  • Over the last three seasons, our highest-rated moneyline plays have gone 73-58 SU for +27.8 units. 

Pick published: Jan 27 11:50am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 739

Over/Under

South Carolina Upstate at Gardner-Webb Under 142.5 -112

Lost: 145 points

Sat Jan 27 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: SC Upstate and Gardner-Webb combine for fewer than 143 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Pick published: Jan 27 11:50am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 306582

Over/Under

Detroit Mercy at Green Bay Over 138.5 -105

Won: 142 points

Sat Jan 27 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Detroit and Green Bay combine for more than 138 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Pick published: Jan 27 11:50am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 625

Spread

Manhattan +8.0 -110

Lost: 70-82

Manhattan at Canisius

Fri Jan 26 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Manhattan wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Friday in CBB.
  • Our roster analysis also shows that Manhattan finally ended a five-game non-cover streak (and not covering 7 of 8), but that the starting lineup they used in last game finally played together for first time, after a stretch where multiple starters missed games and the team has dealt with lots of inconsistency.
  • Meanwhile, Canisius has failed to cover seven straight now, and has lost each of the last three, performing far worse than their season averages. Starter Siem Uijtendaal missed the last two games and his status is uncertain for tonight.

Pick published: Jan 26 3:52pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 883

Over/Under

William & Mary at Hofstra Under 144.5 -110

Won: 119 points

Thu Jan 25 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: William & Mary and Hofstra combine for fewer than 144.5 points on Thursday, January 24.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Thursday).

Pick published: Jan 24 5:52pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars.

Rot# 764

Moneyline

Gardner-Webb To Win +180

Won: 76-64

Gardner-Webb at Longwood

Wed Jan 24 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Gardner Webb beats Longwood on Wednesday, January 24.

Staff notes:

  • Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
  • The +180 line at BetMGM is also a good value compared to the market. Our models have it as a strong play down to +170.

Pick published: Jan 24 12:37pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 306515

Over/Under

Murray St. at Bradley Under 141.5 -110

Won: 134 points

Wed Jan 24 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Murray State and Bradley combine for fewer than 141.5 points on Wednesday, January 24.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Wednesday).

Pick published: Jan 23 6:42pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 680

Over/Under

Boston College at Virginia Tech Under 148.5 -110

Won: 147 points

Tue Jan 23 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boston College and Virginia Tech combine for fewer than 148.5 points on Tuesday, January 23.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 23 12:34pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 656

Over/Under

Texas A&M Commerce at Lamar Under 147.5 -110

Won: 141 points

Mon Jan 22 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M-Commerce and Lamar combine for fewer than 147.5 points on Monday, January 22..

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 22 6:27pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 306644

Moneyline

Texas Tech To Win -130

Won: 85-78

Brigham Young at Texas Tech

Sat Jan 20 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas Tech wins the game against BYU on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model and spread pick for Saturday.
  • Texas Tech has had an average rating of +15.5 in the last 9 games, since they lost Devan Cambridge for the season and switched to the current lineup, compared to+9.9 rating for the first 8 games.

Pick published: Jan 20 11:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 750

Spread

Presbyterian +11.5 -110

Won: 70-80

Presbyterian at Longwood

Sat Jan 20 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Presbyterian wins the game or loses by fewer than 12 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated spread pick for Saturday in CBB, and the highest-rated Decision Tree model play.
  • It is also rated at 59% in our Similar Games Model.

Pick published: Jan 20 11:24am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, Caesars.

Rot# 306571

Over/Under

Wofford at UNC Greensboro Under 141.5 -115

Won: 141 points

Sat Jan 20 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wofford and UNC Greensboro combine for fewer than 141.5 points on Saturday, January 20.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Pick published: Jan 19 8:52pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 718

Over/Under

Maine at NJIT Over 136.0 -110

Lost: 134 points

Sat Jan 20 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Maine and NJIT combine for more than 136 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for Saturday.

Pick published: Jan 20 11:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306561

Over/Under

Baylor at Texas Under 146.5 -105

Lost: 148 points

Sat Jan 20 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baylor and Texas combine for fewer than 147 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for Saturday.

Pick published: Jan 20 11:24am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 616

Over/Under

Louisville at Wake Forest Under 152.5 -110

Lost: 155 points

Sat Jan 20 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Louisville and Wake Forest combine for fewer than 152.5 points on Saturday, January 20.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Pick published: Jan 19 8:50pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 620

Over/Under

Eastern Washington at Weber St. Under 146.5 -110

Lost: 158 points

Thu Jan 18 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Eastern Washington and Weber State combine for fewer than 146.5 points on Thursday, January 16.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 18 12:26pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, PointsBet.

Rot# 812

Over/Under

Texas Rio Grande Valley at Texas-Arlington Under 157.0 -110

Lost: 164 points

Thu Jan 18 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UT Rio Grande Valley and UT Arlington combine for fewer than 157 points on Thursday, January 18.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Thursday).

Pick published: Jan 17 7:42pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 786

Over/Under

Wichita St. at Florida Atlantic Under 153.5 -110

Lost: 163 points

Thu Jan 18 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wichita State and Florida Atlantic combine for fewer than 153.5 points on Thursday, January 18.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Thursday).

Pick published: Jan 17 7:39pm ET, available at that time at Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 756

Over/Under

Texas-San Antonio at Tulsa Over 153.5 -110

Won: 185 points

Wed Jan 17 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UTSA and Tulsa combine for more than 153.5 points on Wednesday, January 17.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 17 12:10pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 711

Over/Under

St. John's at Seton Hall Under 146.5 -110

Won: 145 points

Tue Jan 16 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: St. John's and Seton Hall combine for fewer than 146.5 points on Tuesday, January 16.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 16 1:53pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 642

Over/Under

Rider at Marist Over 132.5 -110

Won: 143 points

Sun Jan 14 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Rider and Marist combine for more than 132 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 14 10:31am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 829

Over/Under

UAB at Florida Atlantic Under 152.0 -110

Lost: 159 points

Sun Jan 14 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UAB and FAU combine for fewer than 152 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today.

Pick published: Jan 14 10:31am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 816

Spread

Pepperdine -1.5 -110

Won: 83-77

Pepperdine at San Diego

Sat Jan 13 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pepperdine wins the game by more than 1 point on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Saturday.
  • Some of the key model factors include Pepperdine opponent's high three-point % for the season (37%) and opponents shooting a percentage on free throws in recent games.

Pick published: Jan 13 10:43am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 793

Over/Under

Southern California at Colorado Over 151.5 -110

Lost: 126 points

Sat Jan 13 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: USC and Colorado combine for more than 151 points.

Staff notes:

  • ****NOTE: this was mistakenly posted as an Over instead of Under, per our models****
  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 13 10:43am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 799

Spread

Mississippi State -1.5 -108

Lost: 74-82

Alabama at Mississippi State

Sat Jan 13 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Mississippi State wins the game by more than 1 point on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday.
  • Mississippi State recently got center Tolu Smith back from an offseason foot injury, and beat Tennessee mid-week in his first start of the season, which is why our power ratings would show Alabama as the favorite in this game (since most of the game results were without Smith).

Pick published: Jan 13 10:43am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 780

Spread

Texas A&M -3.0 -110

Won: 97-92

Kentucky at Texas A&M

Sat Jan 13 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game by more than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday.
  • Texas A&M got off to a strong start to the season, but has struggled to 9-6, dealing with lineup inconsistency, extreme poor shooting, and guard Tyrece Radford missing several games.
  • A&M ranks 354th in three-point shooting percentage while Kentucky is 8th-best, providing a regression opportunity with both teams at extreme ends.

Pick published: Jan 13 10:43am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 658

Over/Under

Syracuse at North Carolina Over 157.0 -110

Won: 170 points

Sat Jan 13 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Syracuse and North Carolina combined for more than 157 points.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.
  • This line of of 157.0 is higher than what we are currently showing as playable on our picks page (156.0) but this is the best line at the large US-based books. Given the positive line movement in our favor on this game since opening we still think it's a playable option, up to 157.5.

Pick published: Jan 13 10:43am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 613

Over/Under

Portland at Saint Mary's Under 135.5 -110

Lost: 147 points

Thu Jan 11 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Portland and St. Mary's combine for fewer than 135.5 points on Thursday, January 10.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.
  • This line of 135.5 is a half point higher at Caesars than at most other books. We think it's playable at 135 as well.

Pick published: Jan 11 12:07pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 838

Over/Under

Winthrop at Presbyterian Under 141.0 -108

Lost: 152 points

Wed Jan 10 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Winthrop and Presbyterian combine for fewer than 141 points on Wednesday, January 10.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today.

Pick published: Jan 10 2:09pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306512

Over/Under

Yale at Brown Over 136.5 -110

Won: 150 points

Tue Jan 9 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Yale and Brown combine for more than 136.5 points on Tuesday, January 9.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 9 12:37pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 631

Spread

North Carolina A&T +5.5 -104

Lost: 59-77

North Carolina A&T at Elon University

Sat Jan 6 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Carolina A&T wins or loses by fewer than 6 points against Elon.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • NC A&T is a vastly better team since Jason Murphy joined the team. He missed the first nine games waiting on an eligibility ruling after transferring from D2. In the 9 games without him, they were 0-9 SU and 4-5 ATS. In 5 games with him, they are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning three times outright as underdogs.
  • By our WOWY analysis, they are 12.6 points better in the games with him than without him.
  • Murphy has impacted the team's rebounding, as he posted 10 boards in each of the last two games, and NC A&T had only one game with an offensive rebound rate of 25% or higher without him, but has done that four times in four games with him.
  • Elon rates 271st in defensive rebounding, similarly in rebounding efficiency to Campbell, who NC A&T just beat by 14 as a 2.5-point dog.

Pick published: Jan 6 10:38am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 751

Over/Under

St. Francis (PA) at Wagner Over 129.5 -108

Lost: 127 points

Sat Jan 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: St. Francis and Wagner combine for more than 129 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 6 10:47am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306507

Spread

St. Francis (PA) +3.5 -108

Lost: 56-71

St. Francis (PA) at Wagner

Sat Jan 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: St. Francis wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points against Wagner.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Wagner has failed to cover in 4 of its last 5, including last 3 as favorite, as it is dealing with some injuries.
  • Guard Zaire Williams has been out, and Guard Rahmir Moore has been out since the third game, and based on this tweet it sounds like both are out a while. They are 2 of the 3 returning starters from last season.

Pick published: Jan 6 10:38am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306507

Over/Under

Rutgers at Iowa Over 152.5 -110

Won: 163 points

Sat Jan 6 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Rutgers and Iowa combined for more than 152 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 6 10:47am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 609

Over/Under

Eastern Washington at Washington Under 159.0 -110

Won: 139 points

Thu Dec 21 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Eastern Washington and Washington combine for fewer than 159 points on Thursday, December 21.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Dec 21 9:22am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 768

Over/Under

North Carolina A&T at Coastal Carolina Under 155.5 -110

Lost: 167 points

Thu Dec 21 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Carolina A&T and Coastal Carolina combine for fewer than 155.5 points on Thursday, December 21.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Dec 21 9:21am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 746

Over/Under

Stetson at Florida International Under 148.0 -110

Push: 148 points

Tue Dec 19 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Stetson and FIU combine for fewer than 148 points on Tuesday, December 19.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Tuesday).

Pick published: Dec 18 7:22pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 306512

Moneyline

Portland St. To Win +160

Won: 75-72

Portland St. at Fresno St.

Mon Dec 18 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Portland State beats Fresno State on Monday, December 18.

Staff notes:

  • Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
  • The +160 line at DraftKings is also a good value compared to the market. Our models have it as a strong play down to +144.

Pick published: Dec 18 7:17pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 885

Over/Under

Western Carolina at South Carolina Upstate Under 147.5 -110

Won: 123 points

Sat Dec 16 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Western Carolina and USC Upstate combine for fewer than 147.5 points on Saturday, December 16.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Pick published: Dec 15 6:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 306542

Over/Under

Belmont at Samford Under 170.5 -110

Lost: 192 points

Sat Dec 16 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Belmont and Samford combine for fewer than 170.5 points on Saturday, December 16.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Pick published: Dec 15 6:55pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 638

Over/Under

Eastern Michigan at Michigan Under 147.0 -110

Lost: 149 points

Sat Dec 16 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Eastern Michigan and Michigan combine for fewer than 147 points on Saturday, December 16.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Pick published: Dec 15 6:53pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 630

Over/Under

Connecticut vs. Gonzaga Under 149.5 -110

Won: 139 points

Fri Dec 15 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UConn and Gonzaga combine for fewer than 149.5 points on Friday, December 15.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Friday).

Pick published: Dec 14 5:34pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings.

Rot# 894

Over/Under

Furman at Tulane Under 173.5 -110

Lost: 227 points

Thu Dec 14 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Furman and Tulane combine for fewer than 173.5 points on Thursday, December 14.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our top college basketball O/U model play for today.
  • Over the previous 5 seasons plus the beginning of this one, Unders on totals in the 170s have gone 33-25-1 (56.8%).

Pick published: Dec 14 12:29pm ET, available at that time at Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 876

Over/Under

Cal Poly SLO at Weber St. Over 126.5 -110

Won: 128 points

Sat Dec 9 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cal Poly and Weber State combine for more than 126.5 points on Saturday, December 9.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our second highest rated college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Saturday), and our top Over play.

Pick published: Dec 8 4:49pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 733

Over/Under

Saint Mary's at Colorado St. Under 138.0 -110

Won: 125 points

Sat Dec 9 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: St. Mary's and Colorado State combine for fewer than 138 points on Saturday, December 9.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Saturday).

Pick published: Dec 8 4:45pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 698

Over/Under

Army at Harvard Over 131.5 -110

Won: 134 points

Fri Dec 8 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Army and Harvard combine for more than 131.5 points on Friday, December 8.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Friday).
  • The line has moved slightly up from the opening line, indicating market agreement. But it hasn't moved so much that we think the value is gone.

Pick published: Dec 7 5:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 306581

Over/Under

Southern Methodist at Arizona State Over 139.5 -110

Won: 150 points

Wed Dec 6 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: SMU and Arizona State combine for more than 139.5 points on Wednesday, December 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our our top college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Wednesday).
  • The line has moved slightly up from the opening line, indicating market agreement. But it hasn't moved so much that we think the value is gone.

Pick published: Dec 5 8:32pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 749

Over/Under

Weber St. at Utah Valley Over 125.5 -110

Lost: 124 points

Tue Dec 5 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Weber State and Utah Valley combine for more than 125.5 points on Tuesday, December 5.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Tuesday).

Pick published: Dec 4 5:56pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 633

Over/Under

Coppin St. at Navy Over 123.5 -110

Won: 127 points

Sun Dec 3 • 1:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Coppin State and Navy combine for more than 123.5 points on Sunday, December 3.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Sunday).
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 53% over the past week.

Pick published: Dec 2 7:22pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306581

Over/Under

Wagner at Stony Brook Over 126.5 -110

Lost: 119 points

Sat Dec 2 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wagner and Stony Brook combine for more than 126.5 points on Saturday, December 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate heading into Monday, and 53% over the past week.

Pick published: Dec 2 2:18pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 306541

Over/Under

Sam Houston St. at Arizona State Over 138.0 -110

Won: 139 points

Wed Nov 29 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Sam Houston State and Arizona State combine for more than 138 points on Friday, November 29.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our second strongest college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Wednesday), and still one of the strongest of the past week.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 55% over the past week.

Pick published: Nov 28 4:39pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 705

Over/Under

California Baptist at Southern Utah Over 140.5 -110

Won: 157 points

Wed Nov 29 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cal Baptist and Southern Utah combine for more than 140.5 points on Friday, November 29.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Wednesday).
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 55% over the past week.

Pick published: Nov 28 4:36pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 703

Over/Under

Utah St. at Saint Louis Over 147.0 -110

Won: 157 points

Tue Nov 28 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah State and Saint Louis combine for more than 147 points on Tuesday, November 28.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Tuesday)
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 54% over the past week.

Pick published: Nov 27 5:54pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 621

Over/Under

Manhattan at Fordham Over 134.0 -110

Won: 154 points

Mon Nov 27 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Manhattan and Fordham combine for more than 134 points on Monday, November 27.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate heading into Monday, and 54% over the past week.

Pick published: Nov 27 12:47pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 857

Over/Under

Northern Illinois at DePaul Over 151.5 -114

Won: 168 points

Sat Nov 25 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Northern Illinois and DePaul combine for more than 151.5 points on Saturday, November 25.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our strongest college basketball O/U model picks of the day.
  • This game is also available at a line of 152 with payout odds of -110 at several major U.S. books. Our models project it as s trong play at that line as well.

Pick published: Nov 25 10:18am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 639

Over/Under

Winthrop at Georgia Over 145.5 -115

Won: 147 points

Fri Nov 24 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Winthrop and Georgia combine for more than 145.5 points on Friday, November 24.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our strongest college basketball O/U model pick of the day.

Pick published: Nov 24 1:59pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306617

Over/Under

Boise St. vs. Virginia Tech Under 143.0 -115

Lost: 157 points

Thu Nov 23 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boise State and Virginia Tech combine for fewer than 143 points on Thursday, November 23.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • College basketball totals began the season going Over at a high rate, due to markets underestimating the impact of the change to the block/charge rule. However over the past week the markets have seemed to overcorrect, with large upward line movements from the openers, but Unders winning at a higher rate 
  • This is our strongest college basketball model Under pick for Thursday.

Pick published: Nov 22 6:54pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 776

Over/Under

High Point vs. Hofstra Under 153.5 -110

Lost: 189 points

Wed Nov 22 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: High Point and Hofstra combine for fewer than 153.5 points on Wednesday, November 22.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • College basketball totals began the season going Over at a high rate, due to markets underestimating the impact of the change to the block/charge rule. However over the past week the markets have seemed to overcorrect, with large upward line movements from the openers, but Unders winning at a higher rate 
  • This is our strongest college basketball model Under pick of the day.

Pick published: Nov 22 1:04pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 712

Over/Under

Akron vs. Drake Under 142.5 -110

Won: 138 points

Tue Nov 21 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Akron and Drake combine for fewer than 142.5 points on Tuesday, November 21.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • College basketball totals began the season going Over at a high rate, due to markets underestimating the impact of the change to the block/charge rule. However over the past week the markets have seemed to overcorrect, with large upward line movements from the openers, but Unders winning at a higher rate 
  • This is our strongest college basketball model Under pick of the day.

Pick published: Nov 21 12:45pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 640

Over/Under

Jacksonville St. at North Alabama Over 143.5 -110

Lost: 120 points

Sat Nov 18 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jacksonville State and North Alabama combine for more than 143.5 points on Saturday, November 18.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our strongest college basketball O/U model pick of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% heading into Friday.

Pick published: Nov 18 1:56pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 306545

Over/Under

Sam Houston St. at Mississippi Over 132.5 -110

Won: 137 points

Fri Nov 17 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Sam Houston State and Mississippi combine for more than 132.5 points on Friday, November 17.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our strongest college basketball Over model pick of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 53% heading into Friday.

Pick published: Nov 17 8:38am ET, available at that time at Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 827

Over/Under

Long Beach St. at Michigan Under 160.5 -110

Lost: 180 points

Fri Nov 17 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Long Beach State and Michigan combine for fewer than 160.5 points on Friday, November 17.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our strongest college basketball O/U model pick of the day.

Pick published: Nov 17 8:32am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 796

Over/Under

Bryant at Boston U Over 137.5 -114

Won: 174 points

Thu Nov 16 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bryant and Boston combine for more than 137.5 points on Thursday, November 16.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our strongest college basketball O/U model pick of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 53% heading into Thursday.

Pick published: Nov 16 9:54am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306583

Over/Under

Pacific at Nevada Over 149.5 -110

Lost: 127 points

Wed Nov 15 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pacific and Nevada combine for more than 149.5 points on Wednesday, November 15.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 55% heading into Wednesday.

Pick published: Nov 15 10:01am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 707

Over/Under

Evansville at SE Missouri St. Over 150.0 -110

Lost: 133 points

Wed Nov 15 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Evansville and Southeast Missouri State combine for more than 150 points on Wednesday, November 15.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 55% heading into Wednesday.

Pick published: Nov 15 9:58am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 693

Over/Under

Appalachian St. at Oregon St. Over 135.0 -110

Won: 152 points

Tue Nov 14 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Appalachian State and Oregon State combine for more than 135 points on Tuesday, November 14.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 56% heading into Tuesday.

Pick published: Nov 14 11:07am ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 669

Over/Under

Merrimack at Maine Over 127.5 -110

Won: 136 points

Sun Nov 12 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Merrimack and Maine combine for more than 127.5 points on Sunday, November 12.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 56% heading into Sunday.

Pick published: Nov 12 11:59am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars.

Rot# 306549

Spread

Utah St. +5.5 -110

Lost: 66-72

Utah St. at Bradley

Sat Nov 11 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah State loses by fewer than 5.5 points, or wins the game, against Bradley on Saturday, November 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is both a spread analytical model play, and a predictive ratings play.
  • Bradley upset UAB in their first game, but UAB shot only 62% from the free throw line, and 16% from the three point line, so the Braves may be slightly overvalued.

Pick published: Nov 11 2:28pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars.

Rot# 653

Over/Under

Drexel at Winthrop Over 137.5 -110

Won: 146 points

Sat Nov 11 • 5:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Drexel and Winthrop combine for more than 137.5 points on Saturday, November 11.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 57% heading into Saturday.

Pick published: Nov 11 2:20pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 306523

Over/Under

Alabama A&M at North Alabama Over 140.5 -110

Won: 150 points

Thu Nov 9 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Alabama A&M and North Alabama combine for more than 140.5 points on Thursday, November 9.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • Our models project this as a striong play still at 141.5, which is available at FanDuel, and 141.0, which is available at Caesars.

Pick published: Nov 8 8:08pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306563

Spread

Florida A&M +36.5 -110

Lost: 54-105

Florida A&M at Creighton

Tue Nov 7 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida A&M loses by fewer than 36.5 points against Creighton on Tuesday, November 7.

Staff notes:

  • Our preseason ratings show Florida a7M as a good value in this game, and have historically done well when showing value in both teams' first game of the season when the market may be a touch softer.
  • The line opened at -29, and is back to -35.5 at some books, so we're getting this at close to the best price that has been available.

Pick published: Nov 7 8:01pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 306521

Over/Under

Sacramento State at Nevada Under 138.0 -110

Lost: 140 points

Tue Nov 7 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Sacramento State and Nevada combine for fewer than 138 points on Tuesday, November 7.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.

Pick published: Nov 7 6:14pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 622

Over/Under

CSU Northridge at Stanford Under 146.0 -110

Lost: 167 points

Mon Nov 6 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cal State Northridge and Stanford combine to score fewer than 146 points on Monday, November 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top model play of the night.
  • It's available at multiple other major American books at a line of 145.5, and we'd play it at that line also.

Pick published: Nov 6 6:16pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 892

Over/Under

Portland St. at Air Force Under 133.0 -110

Won: 117 points

Mon Nov 6 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Portland State and Air Force combine for fewer than 133 points on Monday, November 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • NOTE: We originally listed the wrong game when posting this -- we listed Air Force's next game on November 10. We corrected it within a few minutes of posting. Hopefully nobody bet that (probably nobody was able to). In general, we will not be posting college basketball spread or total picks several days in advance.

Pick published: Nov 6 8:09pm ET, available at that time at Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 874

Over/Under

SE Missouri St. at Grand Canyon Under 142.5 -110

Lost: 155 points

Mon Nov 6 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: SE Missouri State and Grand Canyon combine for fewer than 142.5 points on Monday November 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.

Pick published: Nov 6 8:08pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 864

Over/Under

Dartmouth at Duke Under 143.5 -112

Lost: 146 points

Mon Nov 6 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Dartmouth and Duke combine for fewer than 144 points on Monday, November, 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.

Pick published: Nov 6 8:08pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 860

Spread

Connecticut -7.5 -102

Won: 76-59

San Diego St. vs. Connecticut

Mon Apr 3 • 9:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Connecticut wins by more than 7 points in the national title game.

Staff notes:

  • We will close out the college basketball season by continuing to ride the Connecticut Huskies, who have been outperforming the market expectations significantly all tournament. 
  • Connecticut is even better than their already impressive average power rating in games with lineup usage most similar to how they have distributed minutes in the NCAA Tournament.
  • In the most similar games, which feature a heavy dosage of Andre Jackson compared to times earlier in the season when he was hurt, Connecticut's rating is a dominating +25.1. 
  • Connecticut is tied for 2nd in our overall power ratings, before even accounting for lineup shifts and improvements, and are up to 1st overall in Ken Pomeroy's ratings. So this is a dominant title contender who happened to be a No. 4 seed, and is playing at an elite level.
  • San Diego State has also played well in the NCAA Tournament, but their most similar performances with the lineup usage they have employed in the tournament is at +15.3, nearly 10 points lower.
  • Both teams play a deep lineup and have versatility to adjust in game, the difference is Connecticut's offensive efficiency. Both are top 10 in defensive efficiency, but Connecticut is 3rd and San Diego State 68th in offensive efficiency.
  • San Diego State is elite at three-point defense (28.1%) but Connecticut is 8-2 ATS against top 100 teams in three-point defense, and is 7-0 SU and ATS against top 20 defensive efficiency teams.

Pick published: Apr 3 12:49pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 712

Over/Under

Miami vs. Connecticut Under 149.5 -110

Won: 131 points

Sat Apr 1 • 8:49pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami and Connecticut combine for fewer than 150 points in the Final Four matchup.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Under according to our models.
  • Unders rated at 56% or better by our Decision Tree Model are 140-106-7 (56.9%) this season.
  • Most of the model factors are related to shooting regression (Connecticut is at 41% from three in last three tournament games for example) and also rebounding impact, as Miami has had a lot of offensive rebounds in recent games, but Connecticut is good on the glass.

Pick published: Mar 27 2:52pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 704

Spread

Connecticut -5.5 -110

Won: 72-59

Miami vs. Connecticut

Sat Apr 1 • 8:49pm ET

More info

How it wins: Connecticut wins the game by more than 5 points in the Final Four.

Staff notes:

  • This is a plck based on our lineup analysis and team trends.
  • Connecticut is even better than their already impressive average power rating in games with lineup usage most similar to how they have distributed minutes in the NCAA Tournament.
  • In the most similar games, which feature a heavy dosage of Andre Jackson compared to times earlier in the season when he was hurt, Connecticut's rating is a dominating +26.1. 
  • Connecticut is already 3rd in our overall power ratings, before even accounting for lineup shifts and improvements, and are up to 1st overall in Ken Pomeroy's ratings. So this is a dominant title contender who happened to be a No. 4 seed, and is playing at an elite level.
  • Miami has also played better with their current lineup, but is well below UConn, and the biggest difference is on the defensive end. Connecticut ranks near the top in both offense and defense, while Miami has an elite offense, but is outside the top 100 in a lot of defensive metrics.

Pick published: Mar 27 2:36pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 704

Spread

UAB -1.5 -110

Won: 88-86

Utah Valley vs. UAB

Tue Mar 28 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: UAB wins the NIT semifinal on Tuesday by more than a point.

Staff notes:

  • This a play based on our WOWY analysis and team trends.
  • We'll largely copy our comment on UAB here from before our pick on them to win at Vanderbilt in the quarterfinal.
  • UAB has played much better if we exclude a mid-season stretch when Jordan "Jelly" Walker was playing through an ankle injury and also missed games, and has an average rating of +13.5 in 20 games both before the first injury and after he fully returned, nearly three points better than full season ratings.
  • UAB has also averaged a rating of over +14.0 points over the last nine games with mostly the same rotation, with the only poor performance coming against Florida Atlantic.

Pick published: Mar 24 12:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 664

Custom Bet

Over 11.5 Combined Seeds of Final Four Teams -145

Won: 23, combined seed number

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: The combined seeds of the four teams to reach the Final Four adds up to more than 11.5.

Staff notes:

  • Using our Round Advancement Odds projections in our Bracket Picks we show a 73% chance this prop hits Over in 2023.
  • This is a relatively wide open year where the top seeds have a lower chance to reach the Final Four than in recent past seasons.
  • Numerous teams in the No. 4 to No. 9 range have a realistic chance to make a Final Four run.
  • This prop will hit if any team reaches the Final Four seeded No. 9 or worse, or if a No. 8 reaches, as long as the other three are not all No. 1 seeds, and then numerous other combinations from there.
  • Since the NCAA Tournament went to the play-in games in 2011, this prop would have hit 8 of 11 times, including last year when North Carolina reached the Final Four.
  • It's also a fun multi-level prop that has you rooting for top seeds to lose and for Cinderella runs in the tournament.

Pick published: Mar 16 1:25am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Spread

Miami +4.0 -110

Won: 88-81

Miami vs. Texas

Sun Mar 26 • 5:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in the Elite Eight on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on our WOWY and lineup analysis.
  • Miami has been signficantly better with the rotation they have used in the NCAA Tournament, with much heavier minutes for the guards and starters all healthy, and in the most similar 25% of games they are nearly five points better than their season power rating average.
  • Texas could be without Dylan Disu, who was in a walking boot on the bench in the Sweet 16 matchup after a foot injury.

Pick published: Mar 26 10:28am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 655

Team Future

Connecticut To Make Final Four +300

Won: 82-54 over Gonzaga

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Connecticut Reaches the Final Four in the 2023 Men's Basketball Tournament.

Staff notes:

Pick published: Dec 27 4:29pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Spread

Connecticut -2.0 -110

Won: 82-54

Connecticut vs. Gonzaga

Sat Mar 25 • 8:49pm ET

More info

How it wins: Connecticut wins the game by more than 2 points on Saturday in the West Region Final.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on our WOWY and team trend analysis.
  • Connecticut's performance has been dominant in the tournament, but with the current rotation, they have been playing at an elite level. We will just duplicate our comments from the pick in the Sweet 16 game.
  • Connecticut's average game rating is about 3 points higher (now closer to 4 points higher after the Arkansas blowout) when using a rotation more similar to what they have used in the two tournament games so far, with heavy minutes for Andre Jackson, and more minutes for Nahiem Alleyne and Joey Calcaterra, and fewer for Hassan Diarra.
  • We do have a futures pick on Connecticut from December to make Final Four (+300) and current game moneyline is about -135, but we also like this play independent from having that future in play based on matchup.

Pick published: Mar 24 12:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 653

Spread

Princeton +10.0 -110

Lost: 75-86

Princeton vs. Creighton

Fri Mar 24 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Princeton wins the game or loses by fewer than 10 points on Friday in the Sweet 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean, and a pick based on our WOWY lineup analysis.
  • Princeton is coming off two straight impressive performances against Arizona and Missouri, where they beat Arizona despite going only 4-of-25 from three, by playing Arizona even on the glass, then dominated Missouri in rebounding while avoiding turnovers.
  • Princeton has shortened their rotation substantially in recent games against tougher competition, and is better when their best players play more.
  • In the 10 most similar games this year to the minutes distribution from the Missouri 2nd Round game, Princeton has an average rating of +8.4 (compared to +4.6 across all games), and we think there's value on this Princeton team and a starting group that is better than the overall season numbers.

Pick published: Mar 22 10:03am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 649

Moneyline

Florida Atlantic To Win +200

Won: 62-55

Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee

Thu Mar 23 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida Atlantic wins the Sweet 16 game with Tennessee on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on our WOWY analysis, tournament power ratings and projections, and matchup factors.
  • We have Florida Atlantic projected with a 40.2% chance of winning the matchup with Tennessee.
  • Tennessee has performed worse against top offensive efficiency teams, going 10-8 SU and 5-13 ATS against teams ranked in the top 100 in KenPom's efficiency ratings, but 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS against all other opponents. Florida Atlantic is 30th in offensive efficiency.
  • Tennessee has also performed relatively worse against top defensive rebounding teams, going 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS (the one cover being against Duke). Florida Atlantic is 43rd in that category, the best defensive rebound ranking of any team Tennessee has faced (just ahead of Colorado and Kentucky, teams they went 0-3 SU against as favorites.)
  • The most similar offensive team to FAU is Missouri, in terms of overall offensive efficiency, pace, turnover rate, and volume of three point attempts, and Missouri scored 79 and 86 points in two wins against Tennessee as an outright dog.

Pick published: Mar 20 6:11pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 635

Team Future

Tennessee To Reach Final Four +900

Lost: to Florida Atlantic

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Tennessee reaches the Final Four in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Our predictive power ratings have Tennessee as the No. 4 team in the nation entering the season.
  • Our NCAA Tournament projections show an 18% chance for Tennessee to reach the Final Four, while the break-even rate at these odds is only 10%.
  • Tennessee finished as a No. 3 seed in last year's NCAA Tournament, and was No. 8 in our final predictive ratings last year.
  • The Volunteers return a lot of production complemented by a solid freshman class and should have a deep and talented squad.
  • They were also one of the best defensive teams in the nation a year ago, and guard Zakai Zeigler, now a sophomore, is one of the best at getting steals in the nation.
  • These current Final Four odds have them behind 12 other teams.
  • We project Tennessee with a 23% chance of getting a No. 1 seed, and a 62% cumulative chance of entering the NCAA Tournament as between a No. 1 and No. 4 seed.

Pick published: Nov 6 7:14pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Moneyline

Connecticut To Win -192

Won: 88-65

Arkansas vs. Connecticut

Thu Mar 23 • 7:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Connecticut wins the Sweet 16 matchup with Arkansas on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread (-4.5) and moneyline pick for Thursday in the Sweet 16.
  • Some model factors include Arkansas' high percentage of points from two-point shots and low three-point rate, against a team that rates highly in field goal percentage defense and blocks, Connecticut's opponents hitting a higher rate (37%) of threes in recent games, and Connecticut's high offensive efficiency in the last seven games.
  • We also like this play based on lineup analysis, as Connecticut's average game rating is about 3 points higher when using a rotation more similar to what they have used in the two tournament games so far, with heavy minutes for Andre Jackson, and more minutes for Nahiem Alleyne and Joey Calcaterra, and fewer for Hassan Diarra.
  • We do have a futures pick on Connecticut from December to make Final Four (+300) and current price is about +185, but we also like this play independent from having that future in play based on matchup.

Pick published: Mar 23 10:30am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 640

Spread

UAB (Pick) -110

Won: 67-59

UAB at Vanderbilt

Wed Mar 22 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UAB wins the NIT Quarterfinal on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on our WOWY and matchup analysis.
  • UAB has played much better if we exclude a mid-season stretch when Jordan "Jelly" Walker was playing through an ankle injury and also missed games, and has an average rating of +12.7 in 25 games both before and after that stretch.
  • Vanderbilt has been without center Liam Robbins for the last six games, and Myles Stute announced he was entering the transfer portal at the end of the SEC Tournament, and is not playing in the NIT.
  • Vanderbilt has won two home games in the NIT, including a one-point win over Michigan, but they were outrebounded 39-23, and trailed by 8 in the final minute, against a Michigan team also down two starters in the game.
  • UAB is the 8th-best team in the country at offensive rebound rate, and should have an advantage on the glass against an undersized Vanderbilt team.
     

Pick published: Mar 22 9:50am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 625

Moneyline

Charlotte To Win -210

Won: 71-68

Charlotte vs. Eastern Kentucky

Wed Mar 22 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Charlotte wins the game in the CBI Final on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick (as well as spread pick) for Wednesday in the CBI Final.
  • Eastern Kentucky has reached the final by winning three straight overtime games, including a 2OT game last night over Southern Utah.
  • Model factors that favor Charlotte include their high offensive efficiency for the season, their advantage on the defensive boards, and Charlotte's low opponent assist-to-turnover ratio.
  • Eastern Kentucky has also hit 40% of threes over the three OT wins, a regression candidate (32% for full season).

Pick published: Mar 22 9:50am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 630

Over/Under

Radford vs. Charlotte Under 123.5 -108

Won: 119 points

Tue Mar 21 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Radford and Charlotte score fewer than 124 points on Tuesday in the CBI semifinal.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Under pick in the CBI semifinal between Radford and Charlotte.
  • So far this year, playable Unders rated over 56% by the Decision Tree model are 139-106-7 (56.7%) and non-conference top playable Unders are 67-46-5 (59.3%). 
  • These are two of the slowest paced teams in basketball, with Charlotte the second-slowest, and will need high efficiency on offense to go over at the projected pace.
  • Radford has hit 48% of threes in the last three games, and opponents have hit 40%, a clear regression candidate.
  • Other model impacts include Radford's low opponent rebounds, and Charlotte's low rebound totals in recent games; both teams' low FTA rate for the season; and Charlotte opponents' low assists totals and assists-to-turnover rates in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 21 2:25pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 620

Spread

North Texas +3.5 -105

Won: 65-59

North Texas at Oklahoma St.

Tue Mar 21 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Texas wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points on Tuesday in the NIT.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick in the NIT quarterfinal between North Texas and Oklahoma State.
  • It's also a playable lean based on our WOWY analysis has Oklahoma State with an average power rating of +9.3 in the 13 games without guard Avery Anderson, while North Texas is at +10.5, excluding the first four games of the year, when Tylor Perry missed two games and they played two non-D1 schools. The game is at OSU but even with HCA added in there is value on the dog.

Pick published: Mar 21 2:16pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 613

Over/Under

Miami vs. Indiana Under 145.5 -110

Lost: 154 points

Sun Mar 19 • 8:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami and Indiana combine for fewer than 146 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament.
  • For the year, Unders rated above 56% are 139-105-6 (57%).
  • Model factors include Indiana's high percentage of scoring coming from twos, and low rate of shooting three-pointers in recent games, Indiana's high block rate on defense, and the high free throw percentages that both team's recent opponents have hit.

Pick published: Mar 19 6:58am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 840

Team Future

Xavier To Make Sweet 16 -105

Won: over Pittsburgh

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Xavier reaches the Sweet 16 in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This prop is available under Sweet 16 and then under Xavier.
  • Our projected Round Odds from our adjusted ratings for our Bracket Picks have Xavier with a 55.9% chance of reaching the Sweet 16.
  • The break-even on this is 51.2%, so we are getting solid value on this prop.

Pick published: Mar 16 3:46am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Over/Under

Saint Mary's vs. Connecticut Under 128.0 -110

Won: 125 points

Sun Mar 19 • 6:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Saint Mary's and Connecticut combine for fewer than 128 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament.
  • For the year, Unders rated above 56% are 139-105-6 (57%).
  • Model factors include Connecticut's high offensive rebound percentage (1st in nation) vs. St. Mary's high defensive rebound percentage (2nd in nation), Connecticut's very high offensive efficiency in the last three games, and St. Mary's low opponent three-point attempt rate in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 19 7:04am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 838

Spread

Eastern Washington +11.5 -110

Won: 60-71

Eastern Washington at Oklahoma St.

Sun Mar 19 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Eastern Washington wins the game or loses by fewer than 12 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick for the NIT matchup on Sunday.
  • It is also a play based on our WOWY lineup analysis.
  • Oklahoma State's rating is lower on average since Avery Anderson's season-ending injury, +9.2 on average.
  • Eastern Washington has four games without starting point guard Tyreese Davis (or where he left in the first five minutes) earlier this year that are pulling down their season average, but their average rating is +3.2 with him playing the full game.

Pick published: Mar 19 7:13am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 855

Team Future

Duke To Reach Sweet 16 +170

Lost: Lost to Tennessee

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Duke reaches the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Based on our adjustments for Duke's recent form as well as No. 4 seed Tennessee being impacted by injury to point guard Zakai Ziegler, we are projecting Duke with a 49% chance of making the Sweet 16, showing value on this prop.

Pick published: Mar 13 10:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Spread

Northwestern +7.5 -105

Won: 63-68

Northwestern vs. UCLA

Sat Mar 18 • 8:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Northwestern wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
  • Northwestern has been a solid underdog play all season, as they are 9-7 SU and 11-5 ATS when getting points. 
  • Some model factors include UCLA's low number of 3 point attempts and points from 3 this season, Northwestern opponent's low number of points from 3 in recent games, and Northwestern's high steals per play. 

Pick published: Mar 18 10:22am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 815

Spread

Auburn +5.5 -110

Lost: 64-81

Auburn vs. Houston

Sat Mar 18 • 7:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Auburn wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament.
  • Houston coach Kelvin Sampson also disclosed that not only was Marcus Sasser battling the injury (and re-injured it) but that point guard Jamal Shead was playing through a sore knee.
  • Matchup factors also favor Auburn, as Houston has struggled relatively against teams with Auburn's strengths.
  • Houston is 4-11 ATS against top 100 Offensive Rebouding Teams (14-6 against others) and Auburn is 51st in that category.
  • Houston is 0-8 ATS against top 50 eFG% Defense Teams, and Auburn is 12th in that category.

Pick published: Mar 17 1:58pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 807

Over/Under

Furman vs. San Diego St. Over 137.5 -105

Lost: 127 points

Sat Mar 18 • 12:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Furman and San Diego State combined for more than 137 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Totals plays involving non-conference teams are 122-85-5 (58.9%) for the season. 
  • Some model factors in this game include San Diego State's low opponent efficiency and low three-point make rate for the season, combined with Furman's low rate of turnovers. 
  • Furman is one of the nation's leaders in two-point shooting percentage and rates well in turnovers, while San Diego State's defense doesn't rate nearly as highly in opponent two-point rate (161st) compared to three-point rate (6th). 

Pick published: Mar 18 11:05am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 801

Spread

Kent St. +4.5 -110

Lost: 60-71

Kent St. vs. Indiana

Fri Mar 17 • 9:55pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kent State wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model spread pick, but is a spread pick based on our WOWY and matchup analysis.
  • As we noted in our team notes in our bracket picks product, Indiana's power rating has been worse on average since they lost Xavier Johnson in December, and they do not rate highly in our power ratings (and are over-seeded) even before accounting for that adjustment.
  • Indiana was 1-5 ATS against teams who are in the top 100 in defensive turnover rate. So while their overall turnover rate numbers aren't bad, they haven't played too many high-turnover defenses, and have struggled when they do. Kent State is 20th in turnover rate on defense, the best in that category that Indiana has faced all year.
  • Kent State has played better against top teams, losing narrowly to Houston and Gonzaga. They have done well (9-3-1 ATS against top 100 teams in offensive turnover rate) against teams not accustomed to committing turnovers.

Pick published: Mar 17 1:48pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 771

Spread

Drake +2.5 -110

Lost: 56-63

Drake vs. Miami

Fri Mar 17 • 7:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Drake wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in the First Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean on Drake according to our Ensemble Forecast.
  • We also like this play based on our WOWY analysis, in regard to Drake's performance with the current lineup and recent dominant form, as well as potential injury impact concern for Miami.
  • Miami's Norchad Omier injured his ankle early in the loss to Duke, and his status for the opening game is unknown. Miami is a heavily guard-oriented team with defensive deficiencies, and Omier, at 6'7", is their biggest starter and him being limited or out would impact them.

Pick published: Mar 12 11:58pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 769

Spread

Pittsburgh +4.0 -110

Won: 59-41

Pittsburgh vs. Iowa St.

Fri Mar 17 • 3:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pitt wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on our WOWY adjusted team ratings and team trends.
  • We show about one point of edge on this line based on adjusted ratings entering Thursday, with Iowa State being an overvalued No. 6 seed, and only valued at our No. 38 team in the tournament in our adjusted ratings entering the game.
  • Pitt also gets an extra day's rest from playing in the First Four game in Dayton (because the committee scheduled all the No. 6 seeds at Friday sites), and that could be big as starting center Fed Federiko missed Tuesday's game and was a game-time decision, but now gets extra recovery time and is more likely to play with the game on Friday.

Pick published: Mar 16 9:57am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 785

Spread

Texas A&M -2.5 -110

Lost: 59-76

Penn St. vs. Texas A&M

Thu Mar 16 • 9:55pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins by more than 2 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Thursday in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Both teams have played well lately, but one model factor impacting this is Penn State's opponents scoring very few points from beyond the arc recently, as their opponents have made only 25% from three-point range in the last six games.
  • Other model factors including Penn State scoring a low percentage of their points from two both all season and recently, Texas A&M's ability to draw fouls for the season and in recent games, and Texas A&M's low number of defensive rebounds recently compared to Penn State's low offensive rebound stats.

Pick published: Mar 16 2:34am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 754

Spread

Northwestern -1.5 -110

Won: 75-67

Boise St. vs. Northwestern

Thu Mar 16 • 7:35pm ET

More info

How it wins: Northwestern wins the game by more than a point on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean but not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and analysis.
  • Based on the full season ratings, Boise State would be a one-point favorite, and that's where it opened before moving to Northwestern as the slight favorite.
  • Boise State has played relatively worse down the stretch, and their best guard Marcus Shaver has been playing through an ankle injury over the last two months. They have been below their full season power rating in 8 of the last 10.
  • Northwestern is very good at avoiding turnovers and creating turnovers on defense, and teams with that profile have fared well in their first tournament game. Since 2011, teams in the top 40 nationally in turnover rate on both sides of the ball are 13-6 SU and ATS in the First Round.

Pick published: Mar 16 2:24am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 766

Spread

Howard +21.5 -102

Lost: 68-96

Howard vs. Kansas

Thu Mar 16 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Howard wins the game or loses by fewer than 22 points in First Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean for our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • It's also a recommended play based on our WOWY analysis, for a lot of the same reasons we successfully played Howard as a conference title future last week.
  • Howard used a lot of different player combos early, but they have played substantially better with the current lineup, since guard Marcus Dockery (46% from three) and freshman Shy Odom (best rim attacker on the team) became starters.
  • This line is directly on where we would predict it to be based on full season ratings, but we have strong reason to believe Howard's play and ratings changes over last half of season are real and based on different player combos and a more efficient offensive rotation being used.

Pick published: Mar 13 12:10am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 757

Spread

Maryland +3.0 -110

Won: 67-65

West Virginia vs. Maryland

Thu Mar 16 • 12:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Maryland wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean against the spread, and a playable model moneyline play on Maryland according to our models, if you would rather play the moneyline on this one.
  • We are listing the spread pick as our official play since the extra half-point is available at DraftKings to get the full three points, and cover getting at least a push in all one-score game scenarios.
  • Our WOWY analysis has these two teams dead even, so we also see some value on getting points in this fairly even matchup.
  • One model factor here is actually Maryland's relatively high home power rating this year, as the market can sometimes overvalue the home/road splits in college basketball in a small sample size. Maryland is 13-4 ATS and 8-8 ATS in road/neutral, though they have done fine in neutral games.
  • Other model factors include Maryland's low number of FGA allowed this year, their recent low 3 Point Attempts allowed, and Maryland's low number of turnovers in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 16 10:13am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 748

Over/Under

Villanova at Liberty Under 137.0 -110

Won: 119 points

Tue Mar 14 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Villanova and Liberty combine for fewer than 137 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick in this NIT game at Liberty.
  • So far this year, playable Unders rated at 56% or higher by the Decision Tree Model are 134-105-6 (56.1%) and non-conference playable Unders rated there are 62-44-3 (58.5%).
  • Some model factors include Liberty's low opponent made FGs per game this season, and both teams' high assist-to-turnover ratio in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 13 10:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 678

Spread

Mississippi St. -1.5 -110

Lost: 59-60

Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi St.

Tue Mar 14 • 9:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Mississippi State wins by more than a point in the First Four game.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • We also see some value based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and tourney team similarities.
  • From our team notes with our bracket picks product: "Mississippi State is dead last in all of D1 at three-point shooting, at 26.6%, and is in the tournament because of their defense. Counterintuitively, teams with Mississippi State's profile have tended to overperform slightly in the tournament. That's probably because their defense remains consistent, while positive shooting variance benefits more than negative shooting variance harms them, since they weren't really expecting to shoot well anyway."
  • Add in that Mississippi State has tended to struggle more against top defenses, and Pitt being ranked way down at 142nd in defensive efficiency on KenPom, and we see value here.

Pick published: Mar 12 11:43pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 701

Spread

SE Missouri St. +4.0 -110

Push: 71-75

SE Missouri St. vs. Texas A&M-CC

Tue Mar 14 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: SE Missouri State wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in the First Four game.

Staff notes:

  • This is based on our WOWY analysis of team trends.
  • This spread is directly on the full season power ratings of the two teams, but we have a positive adjustment on SE Missouri, and a negative adjustment for a potential injury factor for Texas A&M-CC.
  • Texas A&M-CC point guard Terrion Murdix went down with a leg injury early in the title game for the Southland Conference. They were able to rally and win, but if he is out, that impacts them for this game. Since we see value already, we are grabbing this early line on the potential he is also out or limited.

Pick published: Mar 12 11:40pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 670

Team Future

Clemson To Miss NCAA Tournament +128

Won: missed tournament

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Clemson does not make the 2023 NCAA Tournament Field.

Staff notes:

  • This prop is available at FanDuel under "March Madness" and "To Make Men's Tournament."
  • Clemson is currently tied atop the ACC at 10-3 in conference play, but we project them as having a greater than 50% chance of missing the tournament by Selection Sunday.
  • Clemson is currently slotted as an 11-seed and one of the last at-large teams in on the Bracket Matrix. 
  • They are currently projected out of the field in both our automated Bracketology, with a 26% chance of making it, and are also projected out in Jason Lisk's bracket (which will be released publicly next week) as the 5th team out.
  • Clemson is only 64th in our predictive ratings, and 65th in the NET, and have played the worst strength of schedule of any team under realistic at-large consideration.
  • They have also had three bad losses to South Carolina, Loyola-Chicago, and Boston College.
  • Clemson is 2-2 against teams we currently project in the field, with "best" wins of home against Duke and at Pittsburgh. They play all three remaining games against projected tournament teams on the road.
  • With their lower power rating, lack of top end wins, and poor strength of schedule, along with some bad losses, they project as the type of team that gets left out on Selection Sunday. 

Pick published: Feb 8 6:12pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

Wisconsin to Make NCAA Tournament +134

Lost: missed tournament

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Wisconsin is selected into the field for the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This prop is available at FanDuel under "March Madness" and "To Make Men's NCAA Tournament."
  • Our automated projections have Wisconsin currently as one of the final teams in the field as an at-large after Tuesday's win over Michigan, with a 53% chance of getting into the field.
  • Wisconsin was the 2nd team out at the start of the week in our most recent bracket predictions article, but would be also projected in the field there as well after winning, and losses by three of the teams right in front of them in the same tier (North Carolina, Mississippi State, New Mexico).
  • The Badgers also went through a seven-game stretch in January where starters Tyler Wahl and Max Klesmit were hurt and missed time, and were about six points worse on average in those games, so the current lineup is a little better than the average power rating. 
  • Wisconsin is currently 15-10 and projected to finish 17-13 in the regular season, and their resume if they hit that mark puts them right on the bubble. 
  • Given that they are coming at + odds right now, we see value on Wisconsin as just being in the field if they hit their average projection, as they have faced a top 20 schedule and we project them to have five Quadrant 1 wins and 10 Quad 1+2 wins, which will compare favorably to other teams right on the bubble. 

Pick published: Feb 16 6:07pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

Duke To Win ACC Tournament +500

Won: final over Virginia

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Duke wins the ACC Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This futures pick is made prior to the Duke-UNC game and official seeding for the ACC Tournament, so odds could shift.
  • Our current automated projections have Duke at 19.7% to win the ACC Tournament across all scenarios.
  • Duke is going to be either the No.4 or No. 5 seed depending on Saturday's results.
  • Duke is also a bit undervalued based on earlier injuries and the team playing better down the stretch with the current healthy lineup.
  • The projection if Duke is a No. 5 seed (with Miami as the No. 1 seed) is a 22.7% chance to win the tournament, and it goes up from there in scenarios where Duke finishes as the No. 4 seed, or Pittsburgh upsets Miami to get the No. 1 seed. So we see value regardless of how the scenarios play out, in some cases, even more value.

Pick published: Mar 3 11:17am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

UAB To Win Conference USA Tournament +210

Lost: final to Fla Atlantic

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: UAB wins the Conference USA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Our automated projection for UAB is 29.7% to win Conference USA.
  • However, after making some WOWY (With or Without You) adjustments for the stretch when UAB's star point guard Jordan "Jelly" Walker was nursing an ankle injury and then missed games earlier this year, they moved up. 
  • With those adjustments, UAB is up to 35.3% and showing value at the current +210, as they rate similarly to conference favorite Florida Atlantic once you account for the injury impact from earlier in the year.

Pick published: Mar 7 12:26pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Team Future

Howard To Win MEAC Tournament +300

Won: final over Norfolk State

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Howard wins the MEAC Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Based on overall season power ratings, Howard is below both Norfolk State and NC Central, and behind both in both market and our automated projection odds.
  • However, there's a decent reason to think that Howard, who surged to finish 1st in the MEAC regular season by winning 10 of 12, is undervalued based on their current lineup.
  • Howard destroyed Norfolk State by 20 in the season finale to claim the top seed, but the starting lineup used in that game has only been used 10 times, due to injuries and lineup shifts. But in an admittedly smaller sample size, have averaged a power rating of +3.0 (their season rating is -4.6).
  • Since Maryland transfer Marcus Dockery was put in the starting lineup on January 7th, Howard has gone 12-3, and are 4 points better than the season average. Dockery has shot 46% from three and is one of the national leaders, and he has made over half of his deep shots since becoming the starting shooting guard.
  • Two of the three losses since Dockery became starter were when starting center Steve Settle was out injured, but he returned for the Norfolk State win.
  • Howard also has the much better draw, as Norfolk State and NC-Central are on the opposite side of the bracket, and if they are closer in quality to the team that has played since early January, are closer to 30% to win the tournament.

Pick published: Mar 7 5:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Team Future

Texas Christian To Win Big 12 Tournament +700

Lost: to Texas in semis

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: TCU wins the Big 12 Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Our automated projections give TCU only a 10% chance of winning the conference tourney, but they have had numerous past injury impacts that make them a better candidate and undervalued by just looking at overall power ratings. 
  • TCU's Mike Miles missed eight games with multiple injuries, including a knee injury in late January, and Damion Baugh started the year on suspension.
  • In 19 games with Miles, Baugh, and Emmanuel Miller all starting and playing regular minutes, TCU's average rating is +19.8, compared to only +7.0 in other games where at least one of them was out.
  • TCU beat their first opponent, Kansas State, by 23 at full strength, then lost to them by 21 in a game that Miles missed, and center Eddie Lampkin tried to come back and play through injury, and scored zero points and then sat out again the next game.
  • After adjustments, we make TCU's chances 16.2% to win the Big 12 tourney.
  • This is also an off-market line at BetMGM, as TCU is +550 at DK and +600 at FanDuel, so we are grabbing the extra value here on a longer shot play, but a team that can go on a run at its peak.

Pick published: Mar 7 12:26pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Team Future

Kentucky To Win SEC Tournament +430

Lost: to Vandy in Qtrs

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Kentucky wins the SEC Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Our automated projections give Kentucky a 12.9% chance of winning the SEC Tournament, however, there are several factors that increase Kentucky's chances. 
  • Kentucky had frequent lineup switches in the first half of the season, and largely had undersized Sahvir Wheeler at point guard. Since moving to a bigger lineup (and more consistent lineup) the Wildcats have been much better since early January. Their power rating over the last 15 games is more than 2.5 points better than the season average rating.
  • Two other top contenders in the SEC have major question marks entering this tournament that increase the variance. Alabama has played four straight subpar games since the news broke about Brandon Miller, and will likely have a No. 1 seed locked up entering the tournament, which could impact motivation. Tennessee just lost their starting point guard.
  • And finally, Kentucky has by far the best "quadrant" draw, having to get through either Vanderbilt, who just lost starting center Liam Robbins for the year, or the winner of LSU/Georgia, two of the lowest rated teams in the conference. Texas A&M, meanwhile, gets the winner of an Auburn/Arkansas showdown.

Pick published: Mar 7 12:26pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Over/Under

Massachusetts Lowell at Vermont Under 141.5 -110

Won: 131 points

Sat Mar 11 • 11:00am ET

More info

How it wins: UMass-Lowell and Vermont combine for fewer than 142 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.4% of the time (129-104-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include UMass-Lowell's good rebounding numbers and low fouls in recent games, and Vermont's extremely high offensive efficiency in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 11 9:47am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 306512

Spread

Southern Utah +3.5 -102

Won: 89-88

Southern Utah vs. Utah Valley

Fri Mar 10 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Southern Utah wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • Southern Utah is both a top-rated playable spread and moneyline pick for Friday night, and we endorse either of them as an option, depending on your preference.
  • Some of the model factors include Southern Utah's rate of drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line recently, their shooting efficiency in recent games, and the low number of threes this year.
  • Utah Valley also has had extreme opponent three-point percentage (31%) compared to Southern Utah opponent's three-percentage (35%).

Pick published: Mar 10 4:25pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 867

Spread

Jackson St. +5.5 -110

Lost: 69-78

Jackson St. vs. Grambling St.

Fri Mar 10 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jackson State wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Friday in CBB.
  • Jackson State has also been playing better with the current lineup, particularly since Trace Young was lost for the season, and Chase Adams moved back in to the starting lineup.
  • Jackson State's defensive numbers have been really good over the last five, and they've held three of the last four to under 44% from two-point range.

Pick published: Mar 10 4:17pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 306503

Spread

Oregon +5.5 -110

Lost: 56-75

Oregon vs. UCLA

Fri Mar 10 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oregon wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model spread pick for Friday.
  • In addition, UCLA is playing without Jaylen Clark, their best defender, who is now out for the season, and missed the quarterfinal in a game that was closer than the final score, as it was tight until the final minutes.
  • Oregon is better than their full-season rating, as Jermaine Cousinard missed the first half of the season, and since he moved into the starting lineup they have a +14.0 power rating, compared to +11.4 overall.

Pick published: Mar 10 4:11pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 857

Spread

Howard -3.5 -105

Won: 74-55

Maryland-Eastern Shore vs. Howard

Fri Mar 10 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Howard wins the game by more than 3 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and analysis. We also had a futures pick on Howard to win MEAC pre-tournament, and we will re-iterate a lot of the same points that we said before they went out and won their first game by 36 as an 8-point fave.
  • There's a decent reason to think that Howard, who surged to finish 1st in the MEAC regular season by winning 10 of 12, is undervalued based on their current lineup.
  • Howard destroyed Norfolk State by 20 in the season finale to claim the top seed, but the starting lineup used in that game has only been used 10 times, due to injuries and lineup shifts. But in an admittedly smaller sample size, have averaged a power rating of +3.0 (their season rating is -4.6). [It's now up to +4.5 with the current lineup after the quarterfinal.]
  • Since Maryland transfer Marcus Dockery was put in the starting lineup on January 7th, Howard has gone 13-3, and are 5 points better than the season average. Dockery has shot 46% from three and is one of the national leaders, and he has made over half of his deep shots since becoming the starting shooting guard.
  • Two of the three losses since Dockery became starter were when starting center Steve Settle was out injured, but he returned for the Norfolk State win.

Pick published: Mar 10 4:11pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 306506

Over/Under

Ohio St. vs. Michigan St. Under 137.5 -110

Won: 126 points

Fri Mar 10 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ohio State and Michigan State combine for fewer than 138 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Friday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 54.9% of the time (124-102-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Michigan State's extremely high effective field goal percentage in the last three games, Ohio State's rebounding, and Michigan State's two-point percentage defense in recent games.
  • Ohio State has also played better defense in the last three weeks, turning around a run of poor performances. The one high-scoring game was against the Spartans, in a game where both teams combined to hit 23 three-pointers on over 50% shooting from deep.

Pick published: Mar 10 9:58am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 812

Over/Under

Rutgers vs. Purdue Under 127.5 -105

Lost: 135 points

Fri Mar 10 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Rutgers and Purdue combine for fewer than 128 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and matchup.
  • Purdue's over/under splits are strongly correlated with how aggressive the opponent defense is at forcing turnovers, when going against their young backcourt. When Purdue plays a top 200 opponent in defensive turnover rate, they are 4 Overs and 11 Unders, versus 9-7 Overs on all other games. 
  • Purdue has gone Under in all three games against a team in the top 50 in turnovers, including the loss to Rutgers in the regular season, and the loss to Northwestern.
  • Rutgers has gone under in seven of the last nine games as their offense has struggled without Mawat Mag.

Pick published: Mar 10 9:50am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 810

Spread

San Jose St. +5.5 -115

Won: 81-77

San Jose St. vs. Nevada

Thu Mar 9 • 5:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Jose State wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday.
  • Nevada has had two straight "bad" losses that have them on the edge of the bubble entering this game, and they have had 4 poor offensive games in the last 5, where they have struggled at two-point shooting and not getting offensive boards, while opponents have had more success on the boards. 
  • San Jose State has been playing better down the stretch, and has been particularly good at getting offensive boards, which is a strong matchup factor in their favor here in the underdog role.

Pick published: Mar 9 11:10am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 775

Spread

Duke -6.0 -110

Won: 96-69

Pittsburgh vs. Duke

Thu Mar 9 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Duke wins the game by more than 6 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model spread pick but is a pick on both lineup WOWY (With or Without You) factors and trends.
  • We also had Duke as a future to win the ACC tourney from last week (prior to the UNC win) but they have moved from that +500 original price down to the favorite at +300 at DraftKings, and a lot of the same rationale applies.
  • Duke is a better team now, than the full season rating represents. They had a rough stretch of nine games from early December to late January when guard Jeremy Roach was injured and freshman center Dereck Lively was injured and playing limited minutes. They've been more than 2 points better than their season average if you exclude those games.
  • Duke's 8-point home win over Pitt in the regular season came during that stretch, in a game Roach missed and Lively played 12 minutes.
  • Over the last 5 seasons, favorites coming off a bye in a conference tourney at a neutral site, and playing a team that had to play the day before like No. 5 seed Pitt did, are 164-144-9 (53.2%).

Pick published: Mar 9 10:49am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 722

Spread

Michigan -3.0 -105

Lost: 50-62

Rutgers vs. Michigan

Thu Mar 9 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Michigan wins the game by more than 3 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on WOWY analysis and team trends.
  • Rutgers has struggled over its last eight games, since Mawot Mag suffered a season ending injury. They have gone 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS, and their average power rating over that span is +4.5, compared to +16.9 in their first 23 games.
  • Michigan has been better over its last 10 games, by about 6.5 points compared to its season average.

Pick published: Mar 9 10:53am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 736

Spread

West Virginia -3.5 -110

Won: 78-62

Texas Tech vs. West Virginia

Wed Mar 8 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: West Virginia wins the game by more than 3 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model spread picks for Wednesday in CBB, and one where we also see value based on recent news and team trends.
  • Texas Tech just suspended head coach Mark Adams on Sunday for statements he made to a player, and will likely be terminated after the season. Tech is not going to the NCAA Tournament at 16-15, unless they go on a 4-game run in the Big 12 tourney.
  • West Virginia has surged in the last two weeks, winning three games and losing only to Kansas on the road by two points, to lock in their place in the tourney.

Pick published: Mar 7 9:39pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 698

Spread

Georgia Tech +7.0 -110

Lost: 81-89

Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh

Wed Mar 8 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgia Tech wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on our lineup WOWY (With or Without You) analysis.
  • This spread is close to the full season spread between the two using average power ratings, but after adjustments we see about two points of value on Georgia Tech.
  • Georgia Tech had a rough January stretch, and it included nine straight conference losses. But shooting guard Lance Terry was hurt and then missed five games, including the Louisville loss.
  • Since Terry has returned and since the team has gotten healthier, the Yellow Jackets have gone 7-3 SU, and are 8-1 ATS, with the only non-cover coming in the ACC tourney opener against FSU by a point.

Pick published: Mar 7 9:39pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 653

Over/Under

Weber St. vs. Montana St. Under 129.5 -110

Won: 118 points

Tue Mar 7 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Weber State and Montana State combine for fewer than 130 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under for Tuesday in the Big Sky Tournament.
  • We also like this Under based on matchup factors and team trends, particularly involving Weber State.
  • Both of these teams rate highly in defensive rebounding, and poorly in offensive rebounding, which should limit second chance opportunities.
  • Weber State rates poorly in three-point percentage allowed, but their Over/Under performance has been tight to how well opponents shoot from outside. Montana State is 309th nationally and 9th (out of 10) in conference play at three-point shooting, and their offense is built around scoring inside.
  • Against teams who have averaged 33% or under from three-point range for the year, like Montana State, Weber State has gone Under 7 of 10 times, by an average of -10.6 points. All other Weber State games have gone Over 13 of 20 times.

Pick published: Mar 7 5:31pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 634

Spread

Chattanooga +4.5 -110

Lost: 79-88

Chattanooga vs. Furman

Mon Mar 6 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chattanooga wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model spread pick, but is a pick based on WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and player news.
  • Chattanooga's star 7-foot center (and likely Conference Player of the Year before injury) Jake Stephens missed the last 11 games of the regular season with a hand injury, but has returned for the Southern Conference tournament.
  • Chattanooga has a +3.5 average power rating with Stephens and -4.9 without him, for a 8.5-point swing in average performance.
  • Since returning, Stephens has scored 67 points in three tournament wins.
  • Furman has won 5 of the last 6, but covered only 2 of them with some close wins in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 6 10:38am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 867

Over/Under

Houston at Memphis Under 145.5 -110

Won: 132 points

Sun Mar 5 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Houston and Memphis combine for fewer than 146 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.5% of the time (117-94-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Houston's low field goals allowed for the season, high offensive rebound rate, Memphis' recent high opponent two-point rate allowed, and Memphis' low rate of taking three-point shots in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 5 8:16am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 770

Over/Under

Liberty at Kennesaw St. Under 136.0 -110

Won: 133 points

Sun Mar 5 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Liberty and Kennesaw State combine for fewer than 136 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.5% of the time (117-94-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Liberty's low possessions per game, Liberty's high assist-to-turnover ratio and low turnovers in recent games, and Kennesaw State's low opponent three-point percentage in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 5 8:11am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306534

Over/Under

Temple at Tulane Under 150.5 -110

Lost: 165 points

Sun Mar 5 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Temple and Tulane combine for fewer than 151 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.5% of the time (117-94-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Tulane's high steals per game combined with Temple's high opponent steals per game, Tulane's low opponent two-point percentage in recent games, and Temple's high defensive efficiency in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 5 8:09am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 780

Over/Under

Pittsburgh at Miami Under 154.5 -110

Won: 154 points

Sat Mar 4 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh and Miami combine for fewer than 155 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • his is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.1% of the time (114-93-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include PIttsburgh's high block rate on defense in recent games, and Miami's high number of points from inside the arc in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 4 9:34am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 674

Team Future

UNC Asheville To Win Big South Tournament +270

Won: against Campbell in final

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: UNC Asheville wins the Big South Conference Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Our automated projections have UNC-Asheville with a 26.9% chance of winning the tournament, putting these odds right at break-even.
  • However, there's also reason to think that UNCA is a value based on both their own performance and some potential injury factors for opponents.
  • UNCA's power rating would be about a point higher if you excluded a stretch in December when shooting guard Fletcher Abee (42% from three) missed games.
  • UNCA also struggled against the two best teams they faced (Arkansas, Dayton) with better athletes that can defend their shooters, but they excelled in conference play, shooting 41% from three in Big South play, and winning the conference by four games. They were 2 points better on average in games against Big South teams compared to their season power rating overall.
  • Further, Gardner-Webb point guard Julien Soumaoro missed the last game (and most of the game before that) with an undisclosed injury, and his status is up in the air. Gardner-Webb is the strongest opponent (and 5 seed) on UNCA's side of the bracket and if they are injury-impacted that improves Asheville's chances of reaching the final.

Pick published: Feb 27 4:42pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

Bradley To Win Missouri Valley Conference Tournament +200

Lost: to Drake in final

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Bradley wins the MVC Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Our automated projections have Bradley at 30.7% to win the tournament, behind Drake, but our adjustments push this to a value and Bradley to the most likely winner.
  • It's the same adjustment that led us to play Bradley as a futures value to win the regular season back in December, as star center Rienk Mast missed the first 6 games of the year. With him playing the Bradley power rating is +10.8 and without him it was 0.0. 
  • Based on our adjustments for games with Mast playing, Bradley is at 35.2% to win the MVC tournament, an edge over the 33.3% break-even.

Pick published: Feb 28 11:31am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

Virginia to Win ACC Regular Season Title +300

Lost: Miami won tiebreaker over UVA

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Virginia finishes as the No. 1 seed in the ACC at the end of the regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections give Virginia a 47% chance of winning the ACC regular season title as of November 28, 2022.
  • Our predictive power ratings are even lower than several other power ratings systems, so this isn't a case of us being well above market on rating a team.
  • Just looking at the results so far to date, Virginia's power rating would put them as one of the top teams in Division 1, while Duke and North Carolina have both underperformed expectations. 
  • Virginia currently ranks in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency on Ken Pomeroy, and is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation.
  • In terms of conference tiebreakers, Virginia plays North Carolina twice and hosts Duke in the only regular season meeting between the schools.

Pick published: Nov 28 5:11pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Team Future

Utah St. To Win the Mountain West Regular Season Title +1900

Lost: San Diego St won

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Utah State finishes as the No. 1 seed in the Mountain West after 2022-23 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections see value on Utah State in the Mountain West Conference, as we project them as the second-favorite in the conference, behind San Diego State, with a 21% chance of winning regular season title.
  • Utah State slumped to an 8-10 conference record last year, as they battled lots of injuries and also had a poor close game record, but the program has finished 2nd, 2nd, and tied for 1st the previous three seasons in conference play.
  • The FanDuel price is the best right now, but there are playable lines at DraftKings (+1100) and PointsBet (+1000) as well.

Pick published: Nov 6 7:14pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Over/Under

Wake Forest at Syracuse Under 157.5 -110

Won: 135 points

Sat Mar 4 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wake Forest and Syracuse combine for fewer than 158 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.1% of the time (114-93-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Syracuse's recent high opponent shooting percentages in the last three games, Wake Forest's interior shooting, and both team having low rebound totals in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 4 9:31am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 670

Spread

East Tennessee St. -2.5 -102

Lost: 57-69

East Tennessee St. vs. Western Carolina

Sat Mar 4 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: East Tennessee State wins by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick on Saturday in CBB.
  • Model factors include East Tennessee State's high percentage of points coming from two and Western Carolina's high percentage of points for opponents from two in recent games.
  • East Tennessee State has also been better since the start of December, after some early missed games for starters. 

Pick published: Mar 4 9:24am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 731

Spread

Auburn -2.0 -110

Won: 79-70

Tennessee at Auburn

Sat Mar 4 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Auburn wins the game by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model spread pick but is a pick based on player news and team trends.
  • Tennessee point guard Zakai Zeigler tore his ACL in Tuesday's game and is lost for the season. He is one of the national leaders in both assists and steals and is a key driver of Tennessee's pressure defense.
  • Even with Ziegler, Tennessee was significantly better against poor offenses and struggled against better teams against the spread. Tennessee is only 4-10 ATS against top 100 offenses (Auburn is 76th) but 12-4 against all others ATS.
  •  

Pick published: Mar 4 9:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 620

Spread

Texas A&M -1.5 -110

Won: 67-61

Alabama at Texas A&M

Sat Mar 4 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game by more than 1 point on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated playable spread model picks for Saturday, and also a play based on team trends.
  • Texas A&M got off to a slow start with a lot of lineup shuffling, but over 21 games with the current lineup, has been more than 3 points better than the season average power rating.
  • Alabama has struggled compared to their previous performances levels over the last three games, since the news broke that star Brandon Miller had driven a gun to the scene of a murder, and the program has been under intense media scrutiny.

Pick published: Mar 4 9:24am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 604

Spread

Nebraska Omaha -1.5 -105

Won: 73-61

Nebraska Omaha vs. Kansas City

Fri Mar 3 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Nebraska-Omaha wins the game by more than 1 point on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean but not a model play, but is a play based on team trends and injury news.
  • UMKC's Shemarri Allen suffered a season-ending injury three games ago, and UMKC has failed to cover those games by a combined 52 points. 
  • UMKC has also struggled with Allen David Mukaba, the leading rebounder, missing time over the last month.

Pick published: Mar 3 11:17am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 885

Spread

Morehead St. -3.5 -120

Lost: 58-65

SE Missouri St. vs. Morehead St.

Fri Mar 3 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Morehead State wins the game by more than 3 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean but not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on team trends.
  • Morehead State has played better after a slow start when they utilized several different lineups. With the current lineup they are about 2 points better than the season average, and Morehead has won 11 of their last 12 games after a 10-9 start, with that current lineup.
  • SE Missouri's average performance has been about two points worse since mid-January, when wing Kobe Clark suffered an injury, and has missed the rest of the season.

Pick published: Mar 3 11:17am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 888

Team Future

Toledo To Win MAC Regular Season Title +240

Won: Toledo Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Toledo gets the No. 1 seed in the MAC after the 2022-23 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our college basketball season predictions have Toledo as a strong favorite in the MAC, at 49% to win the regular season title, providing a huge edge if you can get these odds or anything better than +150.
  • Toledo has won the MAC regular season title each of the last two seasons, before coming up short in the conference tournament both years. 

Pick published: Nov 6 7:40pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Team Future

VCU To Win Atlantic-10 Regular Season Title +250

Won: VCU Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: VCU finishes as the No. 1 seed in the Atlantic 10 at the end of the regular season.

Staff notes:

  • We are showing value on VCU to win the Atlantic-10, as they currently have a 38% chance according to our projections, while the break-even at the FanDuel line is 28.6% chance of winning the conference.
  • There's also reason to think that VCU is a bit undervalued by average power rating, as they had seven different games where they were missing a starter before Christmas, and performed worse. With the current healthy lineup they are 7-1 ATS and SU over the last eight games, and off to a 7-1 conference record.
  • That includes a win on the road at Dayton, the betting market favorite, and they have a game in hand on Dayton.
  • We had a preseason Staff Pick future on Dayton to win the conference at +200, and this is playable whether or not you also played that previous future. As a stand-alone it has solid value and it's also a good hedge at a positive payout if Dayton or VCU win, as we give one of those two a close to 70% chance of being the No. 1 seed.
  • VCU is in action tonight as a favorite against George Mason, so the odds will shift after tonight's game.

Pick published: Jan 25 2:50pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

UCLA To Win Pac-12 Regular Season Title +140

Won: UCLA Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: UCLA finishes as the No. 1 seed in the Pac-12 at end of 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • We currently project the Pac-12 as a two-team race between UCLA and Arizona, with UCLA having a 62% chance to win the conference.
  • Our predictive power ratings have UCLA (No. 4 overall) slightly ahead of Arizona (No. 5) and UCLA has a game in hand based on Arizona's December loss to Utah.
  • You can get this anywhere from +100 to +140 at sportsbooks, and it has value as long as you are getting + odds on UCLA, based on their current lead in standings over Arizona.

Pick published: Dec 27 4:06pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Team Future

Dayton To Win the Atlantic-10 Conference Regular Season Title +200

Lost: VCU Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Dayton finishes as the No. 1 seed in the Atlantic 10 after the 2022-23 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections show value on this bet, as we project Dayton as the clear favorite in the Atlantic 10, with a 47% chance of finishing as the conference's top seed.
  • Dayton finished one game back of Davidson for last year's conference title, and just missed out on a NCAA Tournament bid.
  • Dayton was the youngest team in Division 1 a year ago, as the top 7 players in minutes consisted of 6 freshmen and a sophomore, and all return this season.

Pick published: Nov 6 7:14pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, PointsBet.

Team Future

North Texas To Win Conference USA Regular Season Title +350

Lost: Florida Atlantic Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: North Texas gets the No. 1 seed in Conference USA at the end of 2022-23 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • This number is off-market what is offered at some other books, and shows high value on North Texas, who we have as the most likely regular season champion, at 38%.
  • North Texas won the Conference USA regular season title last year, and the tournament title the year before, and projects as one of the best mid-majors this season.

Pick published: Nov 6 7:34pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Team Future

Xavier To Win the Big East Regular Season Title +550

Lost: Marquette Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Xavier gets the No. 1 seed in the Big East at the end of the 2022-23 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • While Creighton is the betting market favorite in the Big East, we project Xavier as the highest value pick, with odds greater than Creighton to win the conference, at a 22.5% chance.
  • Xavier fired Travis Steele after four seasons with no winning records in conference play, and former Xavier and Arizona coach Sean Miller took over before the NIT.
  • The team surged to the NIT title, under Miller, after faltering down the stretch to just miss the NCAA Tournament.
  • Miller has already had success at the school and led frequent top seeds at both Xavier and Arizona, and with Jay Wright retiring at Villanova, becomes one of the most accomplished coaches in the conference.

Pick published: Nov 6 7:14pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Team Future

Seton Hall To Win Big East Regular Season Title +3000

Lost: Marquette Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Seton Hall gets the No. 1 seed in the Big East after the 2022-23 regular season.

Staff notes:

Pick published: Nov 16 10:55am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Team Future

Tennessee To Win SEC Regular Season Title +220

Lost: Alabama Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Tennessee finishes as the No. 1 seed in the SEC at end of 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our current projection is that Tennessee has a 59% chance to win the SEC title.
  • Tennessee is No. 2 in our predictive power ratings, more than 4 points better than Arkansas, Alabama, and Kentucky as we enter conference play.
  • One of Tennessee's best players, Josiah-Jordan James, has been battling knee soreness and missed 7 games so far (and been limited in others), so the team has been able to put up their dominant numbers largely without him.
  • Tennessee is the No. 1 rated defensive team in the nation on KenPom, and are holding opponents to a 37 percent effective field goal rate, while also ranking 3rd nationally in turnover rate on defense.

Pick published: Dec 27 4:19pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Over/Under

Dayton at Saint Louis Under 137.5 -110

Won: 126 points

Fri Mar 3 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Dayton and Saint Louis combine for fewer than 138 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Friday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 54.9% of the time (112-92-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Dayton's low number of possessions per game in recent games, their high assist-to-turnover ratio in recent games, and Saint Louis' higher three-point percentage in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 3 11:17am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 852

Spread

Texas-El Paso -2.5 -110

Lost: 68-73

Western Kentucky at Texas-El Paso

Thu Mar 2 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UTEP wins by more than 2 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • Some model factors include UTEP's high steal rate and low opponent effective possession rate in recent games, and UTEP's low three-point rate in recent games.
  • Western Kentucky's Luke Frampton suffered a season-ending knee injury nine games ago, and the team has been a little worse since then. He still leads the team in made three-pointers despite being out, and is the most accurate outside shooter.
  • UTEP is also a little better than their overall rating due to an earlier stretch with injuries and lineup shuffling where they played worse.

Pick published: Mar 2 11:37am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 750

Over/Under

Eastern Kentucky at Liberty Under 140.5 -110

Lost: 152 points

Thu Mar 2 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Eastern Kentucky and Liberty score fewer than 141 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.2% of the time (112-91-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Liberty's slow pace and low number of possessions per game, Liberty's extremely high (62%) two-point shooting rate in recent games, and Eastern Kentucky's high block rate and offensive rebound rate.

Pick published: Mar 2 11:09am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 306594

Spread

American +6.5 -110

Won: 52-51

American at Navy

Thu Mar 2 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: American wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated spread model pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • Navy is hosting American in the Patriot quarterfinal, and could be without shooting guard Sean Yoder, who suffered a shoulder injury a week ago and did not play in the season finale loss to Colgate.
  • American has had a lot of lineups and shifting due to injuries, and closed the regular season losing 7 of 8, but rebounded in the Patriot opener against Bucknell.
  • Some other regression model factors include Navy's opponents low shooting percentage in recent games, but high effective possession ratio, and American opponents in the last 7 games shooting the same from three (46%) as from two-point range.

Pick published: Mar 2 11:55am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 306597

Spread

Providence -3.5 -110

Lost: 89-94

Xavier at Providence

Wed Mar 1 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Providence wins the game by more than 3 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and team trends.
  • Providence got off to a slow start with three new transfer starters, but has been better since November, and their overall season power rating undervalues their current form. They are 16-5 ATS since the start of December.
  • Xavier is still without Zach Freemantle. They've largely been fine without him so far, but he is their best defensive rebounder, and Providence is the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the Big East, and top 20 nationally in that category, so his absence could be more impactful in this matchup.

Pick published: Mar 1 1:19pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 666

Spread

Texas Christian -2.5 -110

Lost: 75-73

Texas at Texas Christian

Wed Mar 1 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: TCU wins the game by more than 2 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and team trends.
  • TCU's power rating is significantly higher in games where Mike Miles, Damion Baugh, and Emmanuel Miller are all in the lineup.
  • Texas had a higher power rating, by about 6.5 points, in the 8 games with Chris Beard as head coach before he was suspended and then terminated, than since.
  • As a result, we have TCU power rated ahead of Texas, before HCA adjustments, after accounting for current lineup and coaching.

Pick published: Mar 1 1:14pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 704

Moneyline

Stephen F. Austin To Win -118

Lost: 59-64

Sam Houston St. at Stephen F. Austin

Wed Mar 1 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Stephen F. Austin wins the game on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline and spread pick (SFA -1) for Wednesday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on team trends and roster analysis.
  • Sam Houston State's power rating is inflated by early November results and games against non-Division 1 schools.
  • Their "best" performance since November also came against a Utah Tech team playing without its starting point guard.
  • Stephen F. Austin, meanwhile, has been better since November. Guard Latrell Joss missed games with injury in November, and A.J. Cajuste wasn't in the starting lineup yet. In games with Cajuste at point guard and Joss starting at shooting guard, has a +4.8 power rating, compared to +2.2 in all other games.

Pick published: Mar 1 10:57am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 688

Over/Under

Missouri at Louisiana St. Under 148.5 -110

Lost: 157 points

Wed Mar 1 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Missouri and LSU combine for fewer than 149 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.4% of the time (112-90-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Missouri's high steals per play in recent games vs. LSU's low opponent steals per game, Missouri opponents having a higher percentage of FTA to FGA in recent games, and Missouri's low rebounding numbers for the year.

Pick published: Mar 1 8:54am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 702

Spread

Utah Tech -2.0 -110

Won: 93-56

Seattle at Utah Tech

Wed Mar 1 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah Tech wins the game by more than 2 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean, but not quite playable (52.0%) but is a play based on team trends and roster analysis.
  • Utah Tech is a little better than their raw power rating, as point guard Cameron Gooden missed five games, and they included Utah Tech's worst, 3rd worst, and 4th worst opponent-adjusted performances of the year.
  • Seattle forward Riley Grigsby missed their last game with an undisclosed injury, and his status is unknown for tonight's game.

Pick published: Mar 1 8:47am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 708

Spread

Georgia Tech +9.0 -110

Won: 96-76

Georgia Tech at Syracuse

Tue Feb 28 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgia Tech wins the game or loses by fewer than 9 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
  • Georgia Tech has had a lot of lineup inconsistency and had 11 different starting lineups this year, but is 6-0 ATS with the current lineup.
  • The Yellowjackets particularly struggled with Lance Terry missing games in the latter half of January, but the recent run of success has corresponded with his return.
  • Syracuse's famous zone has had their three worst defensive games in the last three, allowing the opponents to all rebound at least 36% of their misses, and make at least 59% of their two-point attempts in each, in blowout losses to Duke, Clemson, and PItt.

Pick published: Feb 28 10:56am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 617

Spread

Fresno St. +8.5 -102

Lost: 80-94

Fresno St. at New Mexico

Tue Feb 28 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Fresno State wins the game or loses by fewer than 9 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
  • After a 13-0 non-conference start, New Mexico has faltered in Mountain West play, dropping 6 of 8.
  • Fresno State has underperformed this year, but have had a lot of injuries and lineup shifts, and have been about 6.5 points better when the current starting lineup are all healthy.

Pick published: Feb 28 10:44am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 647

Over/Under

Montana at Idaho Under 138.0 -110

Won: 121 points

Mon Feb 27 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Montana and Idaho combine for fewer than 138 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.5% of the time (111-89-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Montana's high three-point percentage (43%) in the last seven games, Montana opponents having a high FTA rate in recent games, and Idaho opponent's low total rebounds in recent games.

Pick published: Feb 27 12:52pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 860

Spread

Penn St. -2.5 -115

Lost: 56-59

Rutgers at Penn St.

Sun Feb 26 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Penn State wins the game by more than 2 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and injuries.
  • Rutgers has lost 4 of the last 5 games, since starting forward Mawot Mag suffered a season-ending knee injury.
  • They have had three of their worst offensive performances in that span, and also had easily their worst defensive game of the year, allowing Nebraska to shoot 74% from two-point range in a loss to the Huskers where they allowed 82 points.

Pick published: Feb 26 10:43am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 844

Over/Under

Siena at Iona Under 139.5 -110

Lost: 153 points

Sun Feb 26 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Siena and Iona combine for fewer than 140 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.6% of the time (110-89-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Iona's low three-point rate and low opponent points from threes in recent games, and Siena's high free throw attempt to field goal attempt rate in recent games.

Pick published: Feb 26 10:26am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 814

Over/Under

Missouri St. at Indiana St. Under 138.5 -110

Won: 128 points

Sun Feb 26 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Missouri State and Indiana State combine for fewer than 139 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.6% of the time (110-88-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Indiana State's high shooting percentage in the most recent 7 games, and Missouri State's low free throw percentage.

Pick published: Feb 26 10:20am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 818

Spread

Illinois -4.5 -105

Lost: 60-72

Illinois at Ohio St.

Sun Feb 26 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Illinois wins the game by more than 4 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model spread pick, but is a pick based on team trends and injury news.
  • Ohio State has performed worse than their season-long power rating for nine straight games, and have lost nine straight games in the Big Ten, and 13 of 14.
  • Ohio State is bad defensively across the board, and just lost center Zed Key to injury. That leaves them really undersized on the front line, going against an Illinois team that will have a significant front court advantage.
  • Six straight Ohio State opponents have had an effective field goal percentage over 50%, with five of those over 56.0%.
  • Illinois has performed relatively better playing against teams that shoot a lower volume of threes (like Ohio State) going 16-3 SU and 13-6 ATS against those outside the top 200 in three-point attempt rate, and 3-6 SU and 3-5-1 ATS against higher volume outside shooting teams.

Pick published: Feb 26 10:08am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 799

Spread

Delaware St. +6.5 -110

Won: 78-83

Delaware St. at Morgan St.

Sat Feb 25 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Delaware State wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and also a play based on team trends.
  • Morgan State's best rebounder and all-around player Malik Miller suffered an injury nine games ago in the blowout loss to Howard, and in the last eight games, Morgan State's average rating has been -14.0, compared to -1.6 before.
  • Morgan State is next to last in all Division 1 in defensive rebounding rate, and Delaware State's relative strength is on the offensive glass. 

Pick published: Feb 25 2:01pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306641

Spread

Southern California -2.5 -110

Won: 62-49

Southern California at Utah

Sat Feb 25 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: USC wins the game by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is right on the edge of playable according to our models (52.4%) and also a play based on player news and trends.
  • Utah's leading three-point shooter Gabe Madsen suffered an injury early in the game seven games ago, and Utah has been about 8 points worse, and gone 1-6 ATS with him out.
  • Starting point guard Rollie Worster also missed the last game for Utah.

Pick published: Feb 25 1:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 761

Spread

Vanderbilt -3.5 -115

Won: 88-72

Florida at Vanderbilt

Sat Feb 25 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Vanderbilt wins the game by more than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on team trends and injuries.
  • Florida's best player and center Colin Castleton broke his hand and is out. The Gators have been about 10 points worse so far than their "rest of year" performance after two games without him.
  • That is despite opponents not hitting three-pointers, as they have allowed Kentucky and Arkansas to shoot over 60% on two point attempts.

Pick published: Feb 25 1:14pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 726

Spread

Merrimack -12.5 -104

Won: 80-59

Merrimack at LIU

Sat Feb 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Merrimack wins the game by more than 12 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick, and also a pick based on matchup and team trends.
  • Merrimack leads the entire nation in turnovers forced per game, forcing turnovers on 26.2% of possessions.
  • LIU is 349th in the country in turnover rate on offense.
  • Merrimack's Jordan Minor, who is a candidate for Northeast Conference Player of the Year, missed 6 games in November. Since his return, Merrimack has been over 9 points better compared to their November results. After starting the year 1-9 ATS, Merrimack is 12-6 ATS since.

Pick published: Feb 25 10:15am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306611

Over/Under

Youngstown St. at IUPUI Under 149.5 -110

Lost: 172 points

Sat Feb 25 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Youngstown State and IUPUI combine for fewer than 150 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 56.8% of the time (109-83-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Youngstown State's low opponent blocks this year, IUPUI's high turnovers and opponent steals in recent games, and IUPUI's low rate of shooting threes in recent games.

Pick published: Feb 25 9:54am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 750

Over/Under

Florida St. at Miami Under 154.5 -110

Lost: 169 points

Sat Feb 25 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida State and Miami combine for fewer than 155 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 56.8% of the time (109-83-6). 
  • Some model factors include Miami's high shooting efficiency in recent games, Miami's opponents getting a high number of points from three-point shots in recent games, and Florida State opponent's offensive rebounding.

Pick published: Feb 25 9:50am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 676

Over/Under

Norfolk St. at South Carolina St. Under 150.5 -110

Lost: 164 points

Sat Feb 25 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Norfolk State and South Carolina State combine for under 151 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 56.8% of the time (109-83-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include SC State's high turnovers in recent games, Norfolk State's high opponent turnovers, Norfolk State's rebounding, and the low assists-to-turnover ratios in recent SC State games.

Pick published: Feb 25 9:44am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 306632

Over/Under

Rice at Charlotte Under 136.5 -110

Won: 124 points

Sat Feb 25 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Rice and Charlotte combine for fewer than 137 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 56.8% of the time (109-83-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Charlotte's low opponent field goals made in recent games, Rice's low opponent turnovers, and Rice's relatively higher offensive efficiency in recent games.

Pick published: Feb 25 9:38am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 686

Spread

Texas-San Antonio +17.5 -110

Lost: 66-106

Texas-San Antonio at Florida Atlantic

Thu Feb 23 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas-San Antonio wins the game or loses by fewer than 18 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for CBB on Thursday.
  • Texas-San Antonio went through a six-game stretch in mid-January where point guard Japhet Medor and center Jacob Germany missed games, and they went 1-5 ATS, but have their full lineup now.
  • Florida Atlantic got off to a blistering 15-3-1 ATS start, but are 1-5 ATS over the last six games, and just lost on the road at Middle Tennessee.
  • Florida Atlantic's slide has happened despite high offensive efficiency, as the defensive numbers are down in recent weeks, both in terms of defensive rebounding and opponent interior shooting.

Pick published: Feb 23 12:46pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 753

Spread

Elon University -1.0 -110

Lost: 60-73

Elon University at William & Mary

Thu Feb 23 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Elon wins the game by more than 1 point on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This game is right on the edge of playable (52.4%) according to our models but is also a play based on team trends and player news.
  • William & Mary has been without starters Noah Collier and Gabe Dorsey for the last four games. So far this year they are about 3.5 points worse in games Collier misses, and that includes the one good performance where they beat Towson by 2 by shooting over 50% from three-point range.
  • The five other games without Collier have all been below-average performances compared to the season power rating.
  • Elon, meanwhile, has been about 4 points better in games played by Jerald Gillens-Butler, who missed the first month and a half of the season.

Pick published: Feb 23 11:59am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 765

Over/Under

Portland at San Francisco Under 155.0 -110

Lost: 181 points

Thu Feb 23 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Portland and San Francisco combine for fewer than 155 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for CBB on Thursday.
  • So far this season, Unders rated at 56% or higher by our Decision Tree model are 107-80-6.
  • Some of the model factors include Portland opponents shooting 40% from three in the last seven games, and the low block rate of opponents for both teams.
     

Pick published: Feb 23 11:41am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 834

Over/Under

Southeastern Louisiana at Lamar Under 146.5 -110

Won: 143 points

Thu Feb 23 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: SE Louisiana and Lamar combine for fewer than 147 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for CBB on Thursday.
  • So far this season, Unders rated at 56% or higher by our Decision Tree model are 107-80-6.
  • Some model factors include the high steal and turnover rate that both teams have had in recent games, Lamar's low points per game in recent games, and SE Louisiana's higher defensive efficiency for the season but relatively high opponent three-point rate in recent games.

Pick published: Feb 23 11:25am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 306580

Over/Under

Washington St. at Stanford Under 135.0 -110

Won: 130 points

Thu Feb 23 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington State and Stanford combine for fewer than 136 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for CBB on Thursday.
  • So far this season, Unders rated at 56% or higher by our Decision Tree model are 107-80-6.
  • Some model factors include Stanford's higher shooting percentage in the most recent three games, both teams lower free throw percentage in recent games, and the higher overall offensive efficiency for both Stanford and their opponents in the last three games.

Pick published: Feb 23 11:11am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 838

Over/Under

Penn St. at Ohio St. Under 142.5 -110

Lost: 146 points

Thu Feb 23 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Penn State and Ohio State combine for fewer than 143 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for CBB on Thursday.
  • So far this season, Unders rated at 56% or higher by our Decision Tree model are 107-80-6.
  • Some of the model factors include Penn State's low steals per play this season, and Ohio State's low three-point percentage and low number of possessions in recent games.

Pick published: Feb 23 11:06am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 746

Moneyline

Morehead St. To Win -225

Won: 69-63

Morehead St. at Eastern Illinois

Wed Feb 22 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Morehead State wins the game on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated moneyline play for Wednesday in CBB.
  • So far this year, moneyline plays rated as highly as this one are +5.9 units across 43 games.
  • Model factors impacting this are Morehead State's excellent two-point shooting percentage defense in recent games coupled with limiting how many three pointers the opponents take.
  • Eastern Illinois is one of the worst outside shooting teams in the country, in terms of low volume and percentage rate. Morehead State held them to 33% shooting on two-point attempts in their previous matchup.
     

Pick published: Feb 22 2:26pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 719

Spread

Kentucky -2.5 -110

Won: 82-74

Kentucky at Florida

Wed Feb 22 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida wins the game by more than 2 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick on Wednesday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on player news and team trends.
  • Florida's center Colin Castleton suffered a broken hand and is out for the foreseeable future. In the first game without him, Florida lost by 19 at Arkansas as a 9-point dog.
  • Without their best player, Florida had to play a freshman who played more minutes in that game than he had all year, and started Jason Jitoboh, who had averaged less than 7 minutes a game in SEC play until that start.
  • Kentucky is top 3 in the nation in offensive rebound rate led by Oscar Tshiebwe, and Castleton was easily Florida's best defensive rebounder and shot blocker.

Pick published: Feb 22 1:35pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 691

Over/Under

New Mexico at Boise St. Under 147.0 -110

Lost: 159 points

Wed Feb 22 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Mexico and Boise State combine for under 147 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated playable Over/Under for Wednesday in CBB.
  • For the year, Unders rated at 56% or better by our Decision Tree Model are 107-79-6.
  • Some of the factors that our models are picking up are New Mexico's low rate of shooting threes in recent games, and Boise State's high shooting percentage in recent games.

Pick published: Feb 22 1:14pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 738

Spread

Villanova +5.0 -110

Won: 64-63

Villanova at Xavier

Tue Feb 21 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Villanova wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick at +4.5, but you can still get +5 or +5.5 at a few books.
  • Villanova has played much better in the last month, though some of the results may not reflect that. They have won 3 of the last 4, and before that had 2nd half leads in losses to Creighton, Marquette, and Providence.
  • Justin Moore has returned for the last 7 games from his Achilles injury suffered in last year's NCAA Tournament, and has struggled shooting from outside so far but is coming off his two best offensive games since coming back.
  • Xavier is still without Zach Freemantle, who has missed the last three weeks and will likely be out at least one more.

Pick published: Feb 21 11:57am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 601

Spread

UNC Greensboro -3.0 -110

Won: 93-76

UNC Greensboro at Chattanooga

Sat Feb 18 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UNC-Greensboro wins the game by more than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on team trends and player participation.
  • Chattanooga's Jake Stephens suffered an injury eight games ago. The Mocs have won and covered the last three, but over the full eight are still 5.5 points worse with their best player out.

Pick published: Feb 18 8:22am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 615

Spread

South Carolina +9.5 -110

Won: 64-61

South Carolina at Mississippi

Sat Feb 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: South Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 10 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model picks for Saturday in CBB.
  • South Carolina has covered three of the last four as a dog in the SEC, including a close two-point loss to Arkansas, and a nine-point loss at Missouri this week, in a game that was close until the final few minutes.
  • The Gamecocks have had four straight games of rebounding at least 37 percent of their own misses, which are the four highest offensive rebounding games in SEC play since their win at Kentucky. Mississippi is 259th nationally in defensive rebound rate.

Pick published: Feb 11 7:48am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 619

Spread

Texas A&M +4.5 -110

Won: 79-63

Texas A&M at Auburn

Wed Jan 25 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean, but is playable based on matchup factors.
  • Texas A&M is 9-1 ATS (covering by an average of 9.3 points) when playing an opponent that is outside the Top 200 in defensive rebound rate, and 3-6 ATS in all other games.
  • Auburn is 284th in defensive rebounding percentage, with opponents getting 31.4% of their own missed shots, and it is their one glaring weakness across otherwise stellar defensive numbers.
  • Auburn is 1-3 ATS against teams in the Top 50 in offensive rebound rate, and Texas A&M is 11th in that category, the highest-rated team Auburn has played so far.
  • Auburn is 2-6 ATS against teams that are Top 50 in opponent 2-point % (7-4 ATS against all others), and Texas A&M also rates 18th in that category.

Pick published: Jan 25 1:23pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 715

Over/Under

Iowa St. at Texas Under 136.0 -110

Won: 126 points

Tue Feb 21 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State and Texas combine for fewer than 136 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Tuesday.
  • Texas shoots a high percentage on two-point shots, but Iowa State's defense ranks 1st in the conference in blocks.
  • Iowa State power forward Aljaz Kunc missed 10 games in late December and January with injury, and 6 of 10 games went Over, but Cyclones games are 3-13 on the Over with Kunc playing.
  • Iowa State's leading outside shooter, Caleb Grill, is questionable for tonight after missing the last game with a lingering back injury.

Pick published: Feb 21 12:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 648

Spread

Texas A&M -1.0 -110

Won: 68-63

Tennessee at Texas A&M

Tue Feb 21 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game by more than a point on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on recent team trends.
  • Tennessee's power rating is inflated by their performance against poor offenses and weaker overall teams.
  • Against teams that are top 150 offenses on KenPom, Tennessee is only 8-7 SU and 4-11 ATS, compared to 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS against all others.
  • Texas A&M is ranked 24th in offensive efficiency and is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the conference.

Pick published: Feb 21 11:34am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 624

Spread

Howard -6.5 -110

Lost: 76-89

Howard at Morgan St.

Mon Feb 20 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Howard wins the game by more than 6 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is close to a playable model pick (52.2%) but is a play based on team trends.
  • Morgan State's best rebounder and all-around player Malik Miller suffered an injury eight games ago in the blowout loss to Howard, and in the last eight games, Morgan State's average rating has been -16.3, compared to -1.7 before.
  • Howard is on a nine-game win streak and has moved to first in the MEAC.
  • Morgan State is next to last in all Division 1 in defensive rebounding rate, and Howard has a signficiant size and rebounding advantage.

Pick published: Feb 20 11:20am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306503

Spread

Valparaiso -1.0 -110

Lost: 73-74

Valparaiso at Illinois-Chicago

Sun Feb 19 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Valparaiso wins the game by more than 1 point on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model spread pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on team trends and player participation.
  • Valparaiso has been about 5.5 points better over the last 16 games compared to their first 12 games of the season.
  • Illinois-Chicago has been without their two leading scorers, Tre Anderson and Jace Carter, for the last two games for undisclosed reasons and has failed to cover both.

Pick published: Feb 19 11:15am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 835

Spread

North Dakota St. +13.5 -102

Won: 66-74

North Dakota St. at Oral Roberts

Sat Feb 18 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Dakota State wins the game or loses by fewer than 14 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Saturday and also a play based on team trends.
  • North Dakota State is one of the youngest and least experienced teams in D1, and over the last 13 games (since Christmas) they have been about 9.5 points better on average compared to their first 14 games, when their best player Grant Nelson also missed three games.

Pick published: Feb 18 11:35am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 773

Spread

Vermont -13.0 -110

Lost: 82-80

Vermont at NJIT

Sat Feb 18 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Vermont wins the game by more than 13 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Vermont got off to a rough start, but has been 10 points better since December 1st compared to their November results, and have gone 13-4 ATS since.
  • NJIT's Miles Coleman is also out, and NJIT has been about 5 points worse in the nine games without him as a starter this year.

Pick published: Feb 18 11:31am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306667

Spread

North Dakota St. -1.5 -114

Won: 69-58

North Dakota St. at Kansas City

Thu Feb 16 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Dakota State wins the game by more than 1 point on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick and also a play based on team trends.
  • North Dakota State is one of the youngest and least experienced teams in D1, and over the last 12 games (since Christmas) they have been about 9.5 points better on average compared to their first 14 games, when their best player Grant Nelson also missed three games.
  • Kansas City's David Allen Mukaba missed the last game, and in five games without him, Kansas City is about 5 points worse. Mukaba is Kansas City's best rebounder.

Pick published: Feb 16 9:53am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 795

Over/Under

Purdue at Maryland Under 132.5 -110

Won: 122 points

Thu Feb 16 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Purdue and Maryland combine for fewer than 133 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • It is also a play based on team matchup trends.
  • Purdue's over/under trends have shown a strong correlation with the type of defense opponents pay and whether they create turnovers. They are 8-3 Overs going against teams outside the top 250 in defensive turnover rate (which includes several Big Ten teams) but only 3-12 Over in all other matchups.
  • Purdue has been efficient on offense but the one flaw is that they rank dead last in Big Ten play in turnover rate. Maryland is 3rd in defensive turnover rate behind only Rutgers and Northwestern. In games against those three teams so far, Purdue lost to Rutgers 65-64, lost to Northwestern 64-58, and beat Maryland only 58-55 in the previous matchup at home in a defensive struggle.

Pick published: Feb 16 9:51am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 750

Spread

Monmouth-NJ +4.5 -102

Lost: 62-77

Monmouth-NJ at Northeastern

Thu Feb 16 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Monmouth wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • It is also a play based on team trends and performance.
  • Monmouth started 1-20 but has won 5 of the last 6 games, and are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS with current lineup with Jakari Spence as starting point guard.
  • Monmouth entered the year as one of the least experienced teams in D1 and got off to that horrifiic start, and there is reason to think their recent improvement is real based on a young, inexperienced team with new players figuring out the best rotations.

Pick published: Feb 16 9:29am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 779

Spread

Furman -15.5 -105

Lost: 65-69

Furman at The Citadel

Wed Feb 15 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Furman wins the game by more than 15 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Wednesday.
  • It is also a play based on recent team trends and peformance.
  • After a 4-8 ATS start, this Furman team has been rolling through the Southern Conference, covering 11 of their last 12 games, and winning five straight by double digits.
  • Furman leads the Southern Conference in two-point shooting percentage on offense, and Citadel is next-to-last in defense on two-point shots.
  • Furman also plays at the fastest pace in the conference, which gives them more possessions to expand the lead in mismatches. 

Pick published: Feb 15 10:31am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 665

Spread

Mississippi +9.5 -102

Lost: 64-79

Mississippi at Florida

Wed Feb 15 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Mississippi wins the game or loses by fewer than 10 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick on Wednesday in CBB.
  • Ole Miss has been strong on the offensive glass in recent games, a potential vulnerability for Florida that can keep the underdog close.
  • Florida also has a low percentage of their points coming from three in recent games, and hasn't shot it well or at high frequency.
  • Mississippi also has some value because they are better with Matthew Murrell back, after he missed three games with injury that were all well below the team average in terms of power rating.

Pick published: Feb 15 10:22am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 657

Over/Under

Air Force at Utah St. Under 138.0 -110

Lost: 145 points

Tue Feb 14 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Air Force and Utah State combine for fewer than 138 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated over/under model play for Tuesday in CBB.
  • Air Force's strength is two-point shooting percentage, and they are coming off a game where they upset New Mexico while shooting 72% on twos, but Utah State leads the Mountain West in interior shooting percentage defense.
  • Utah State, meanwhile, is the best in the conference at three-point shooting, but is going against an Air Force defense that ranks 20th nationally in three-point percentage defense.

Pick published: Feb 14 9:38am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 640

Spread

South Carolina St. -1.0 -110

Won: 74-62

South Carolina St. vs. Morgan St.

Mon Feb 13 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: South Carolina State wins the game by more than one point on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick for Monday in CBB.
  • It is also a play based on player participation news and trends.
  • Morgan State's Malik Miller, their best all-around player, second-leading scorer and leading rebounder, suffered a torn ACL three weeks ago.
  • Since his injury, Morgan State is 2-4 ATS with three of the non-covers coming by double digits. They are about 13 points worse over the last six games compared to the rest of the season. 
  • Morgan State is dead last in Division 1 at defensive rebounding and has struggled even more with Miller out, while South Carolina State's primary strength on offense is their offensive rebounding (41st nationally).

Pick published: Feb 13 11:45am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306510

Over/Under

Purdue at Northwestern Under 131.5 -110

Won: 122 points

Sun Feb 12 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Purdue and Northwestern combine for fewer than 132 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • It is also a play based on team matchup trends.
  • Purdue's over/under trends have shown a strong correlation with the type of defense opponents pay and whether they create turnovers. They are 8-3 Overs going against teams outside the top 250 in defensive turnover rate (which includes several Big Ten teams) but only 3-11 Over in all other matchups.
  • Northwestern is 33rd nationally in turnover rate, and 2nd in the Big Ten. Against Rutgers (No. 1 in Big Ten) Purdue lost to Rutgers 65-64, and against Maryland (No. 3 in Big Ten) they won 58-55 at home in a defensive struggle.

Pick published: Feb 12 8:39am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 854

Spread

Iowa St. -6.0 -110

Lost: 56-64

Oklahoma St. at Iowa St.

Sat Feb 11 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State wins the game by more than 6 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday.
  • Oklahoma State is playing without point guard Anthony Anderson, who underwent wrist surgery and has missed the last two games. While they have won the last two (against TCU and Texas Tech teams that had their own injury issues) the matchup with Iowa State is a tough one without Anderson.
  • Iowa State ranks 2nd nationally in turnovers forced, and Anderson led the Cowboys in assists to turnovers.

Pick published: Feb 11 10:36am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 742

Spread

Texas Tech +1.0 -110

Won: 71-63

Kansas St. at Texas Tech

Sat Feb 11 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas Tech wins the game on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • We've also seen some line movement that is likely player participation related at some market-leading books, and Texas Tech has started to move to the favorite role.
  • Texas Tech has had a frustrating year (1-10 in the Big 12) after finishing as a top 10 team a year ago, and has battled numerous injuries.
  • Center Fardaws Aimaq, who was WAC Player of the Year in 2021 and transferred from Utah Valley, has played in only three games all year, but was described as "day-to-day" on Friday after traveling with the team mid-week but not playing at Oklahoma State.

Pick published: Feb 11 10:29am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 766

Over/Under

Connecticut at Creighton Under 142.5 -110

Won: 109 points

Sat Feb 11 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Connecticut and Creighton combine for fewer than 143 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model over/under play for Saturday.
  • We also like this Under based on recent Creighton defensive trends.
  • As we noted in our spread pick for Creighton, their defense has been significantly better over the last 12 games since center Ryan Kalkbrenner's return from illness. They have limited opponents to shooting only 43% from two-point range over that span.
  • Connecticut is reliant on getting on the offensive glass in their offense, but Creighton ranks highly in that category and can limit second chances. 
  • Both of these teams are among the best in the country at limiting outside shooting attempts.

Pick published: Feb 11 9:52am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 662

Spread

Creighton -4.5 -110

Lost: 56-53

Connecticut at Creighton

Sat Feb 11 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Creighton wins the game by more than 4 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model play but is a pick based on team trends.
  • Creighton has been dominant in the last month. This team entered with high preseason expectations, but went through a tough December stretch that included center Ryan Kalkbrenner missing three games with illness.
  • Since Kalkbrenner's return, they've averaged a +20.9 Game Score over the last 12 games, which is national title contender quality, compared to +12.6 before.
  • The primary improvements for Creighton have been defensively, where they are limiting opponents on the boards much better, and where opponents have shot only 43% from two-point range over the last 12. (For perspective, that would rank 6th nationally if that was their rate all year).
  • Connecticut, meanwhile, started the year 12-0 SU and 11-0-1 ATS. Since then, they are 7-6 SU and 4-9 ATS.
  • The primary differences in UConn now are also defensively, in that they are not turning opponents  over as much and are performing worse on defensive rebounding and interior shooting percentage.
  • UConn relies on getting on the offensive glass, where they rank 5th nationally, but Creighton has been really strong there.

Pick published: Feb 11 9:46am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 662

Spread

Charleston -17.0 -110

Lost: 83-70

Charleston at Hampton

Sat Feb 11 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Charleston wins the game by more than 17 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model spread pick for Saturday.
  • Charleston has rebounded from their first two conference losses by covering the last two games by a combined 32.5 points.
  • Charleston has a clear advantage in this game against Hampton's poor defense, and has a decided advantage in rebounding on both the offensive and defensive ends.
  • Hampton ranks dead last in CAA play in opponent effective shooting percentage, and two-point shooting on offense, and Charleston is one of the best in the nation at limiting three-point shots.
  • These are also two of the faster-paced teams in conference play, which should increase possessions for Charleston to score more and cover the larger number.

Pick published: Feb 11 8:35am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 691

Spread

UC Santa Barbara -1.5 -105

Won: 75-72

UC Santa Barbara at Long Beach St.

Thu Feb 9 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UCSB wins by more than 1 point on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • UCSB is coming off their worst opponent adjusted performance, a 5-point loss to CS-Northridge where they blew a 9-point lead with just under 10 minutes left, and had two key starters foul out.
  • The last two opponents against UCSB have combined to go 16-of-34 from three and 30-of-34 from the FT line, while UCSB has "won" most of the other fundamental categories.
  • Long Beach is a poor shooting team that takes threes at the lowest rate in the country, and is heavily reliant on offensive rebounding, an area where UCSB is very good, so several of UCSB's strengths matchup here. 
     

Pick published: Feb 9 12:26pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 833

Spread

Fairleigh Dickinson -11.5 -110

Lost: 80-79

Fairleigh Dickinson at LIU

Thu Feb 9 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Fairleigh Dickinson wins by more than 11 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • LIU is now dead last among all Division 1 schools in our predictive power ratings, and are 1-20 SU against D-1 schools this season. They are 1-8-1 ATS in last 10 and 2-12-1 in last 15.
  • Some of the model factors are LIU having a high rate of steals against them both recently and for season, FDU's steal rate in recent games, FDU's good interior and overall shooting in recent games, and LIU's poor overall rating.

Pick published: Feb 9 12:05pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306569

Spread

Florida International -1.0 -110

Won: 66-62

Louisiana Tech at Florida International

Thu Feb 9 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida International wins the game by more than 1 point on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean but just under a playable pick with our models, but is a play based on matchup and roster trends.
  • Louisiana Tech guard Keaston Willis, who is second in minutes played and leads the team in three-point rate and lowest turnover rate among guards, missed the last game with injury.
  • Florida International plays a fast-paced pressing style and with Willis out last game, Louisiana Tech mostly played a six-man rotation.

Pick published: Feb 9 12:02pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 756

Moneyline

Utah St. To Win -130

Lost: 61-63

San Diego St. at Utah St.

Wed Feb 8 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah State wins the game on Wednesday night.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline and spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • The spreads available differ in both the spread and payout odds, in the -1.5 to -2.5 range,
  • Utah State lost by 10 to San Diego State on the road two weeks ago, in a game where the difference was San Diego State's +11 advantage in free throws made.
  • Utah State actually shot 65% from two, but were only 11-of-33 from three, while San Diego State hit 55% from three (their high all season) but only 44% from two.
  • Some model factors here include Utah State's high offensive efficiency in the recent three-game win streak (and all season), and their usually high rate of getting to the line (where the previous San Diego State matchup was an outlier).

Pick published: Feb 8 11:11am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 742

Spread

Furman -16.5 -105

Won: 94-63

Furman at VMI

Wed Feb 8 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Furman wins the game by more than 16 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick and also a play based on team trends and player news.
  • Furman is a veteran team that is now our projected favorite to win the Southern Conference after a six-game win streak, and is a highly efficient offensive team.
  • VMI is a very young team that is among the lowest-rated in the country, and now has potential injury issues.
  • Freshman starting guard Rickey Bradley missed the last game with injury, and senior guard Sean Conway left the game after only 14 minutes. VMI has only six other players who have played significant minutes this year, and they lost by 26 points at Mercer without them.

Pick published: Feb 8 10:32am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 687

Spread

Monmouth-NJ +3.5 -110

Won: 61-54

Monmouth-NJ at Stony Brook

Wed Feb 8 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Monmouth wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • It is also a play based on player news and recent trends.
  • Stony Brook's leading scorer by points per game, guard Tyler Stephenson-Moore, has missed the last three games after being taken off the court on a back board following a fall on January 26th. 
  • Stony Brook has performed worse in its recent games, and is about 5 points worse without Stephenson-Moore than in the games he played.
  • Monmouth, meanwhile, ranks highly in our "momentum" metric comparing recent performances to earlier in the season. They have now won 3 straight after a 1-20 start, and Monmouth was one of the least experienced teams entering the year, and has had a lot of players get minutes, but has had the same starting lineup for four straight games, the longest stretch all year with the same starters.

Pick published: Feb 8 10:19am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 665

Spread

Ball St. -8.5 -105

Won: 65-51

Ball St. at Central Michigan

Tue Feb 7 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ball State wins the game by more than 8 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Tuesday night in CBB.
  • Central Michigan's guard Jesse Zarzuela, who leads the team in scoring per game, missed the last game, and the Chippewas have been about 10 points worse in the six games so far he has missed.
  • Central Michigan's defensive numbers have been really poor of late, as over the last five games, opponents have made 53% of two-pointers, 42% of threes, and rebounded 39% of the missed shots they did have.

Pick published: Feb 7 11:48am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 613

Spread

Maryland +3.5 -110

Lost: 58-63

Maryland at Michigan St.

Tue Feb 7 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Maryland wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for CBB on Tuesday.
  • Maryland went through a rough stretch in late December, with a blowout loss to UCLA and some short-term injuries to starters Donald Carey and Julian Reese, but have returned to top form recently.
  • Maryland has covered six straight and won the last four games all by double digits.
  • Some of the model factors being picked up are Maryland's defensive efficiency numbers in the most recent seven games, as well as Michigan State's opponents shooting relatively poorly from outside, even while they have only covered two of their last seven.
  • Michigan State has also struggled scoring on the inside, only topping 50% on two-point attempts once in the last seven games.

Pick published: Feb 7 11:25am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 645

Over/Under

Purdue at Indiana Under 139.5 -110

Lost: 153 points

Sat Feb 4 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Purdue and Indiana combine for fewer than 140 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Purdue has been Under 14 of 23 games, but gone Over the last three because of shorter term outside shooting trends, hitting 43% from three while opponents have hit 39% over the last three games.
  • Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis is one of the best interior defenders and shot blockers in the country, setting up a strength-on-strength matchup against Purdue's All-American center Zach Edey where both should somewhat neutralize each other inside.

Pick published: Feb 4 7:05am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 694

Spread

Hawaii -6.5 -110

Won: 69-56

Hawaii at Cal Poly SLO

Sat Feb 4 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Hawaii wins the game by more than 6 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • The model is picking up the differences in Hawaii's defensive quality versus Cal Poly SLO's poor offensive numbers.
  • Hawaii has also had a discrepancy in their two-point shooting and three-point shooting. They have made over 60% of twos in the last two games, and Cal Poly has allowed opponents to make over 60% of their shots from two in the last two games.

Pick published: Feb 4 6:31am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 803

Spread

Mississippi +4.5 -105

Won: 71-74

Mississippi at Vanderbilt

Sat Feb 4 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ole Miss wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Ole Miss leading scorer Matthew Murrell is expected to return after missing the last three games with a knee sprain (and being a game time decision in the last two).
  • Ole Miss has struggled more with faster-paced pressure teams, going 0-5 ATS and failing to cover by 13 points on average against top 100 offensive pace teams, but that is not Vanderbilit, who ranks well below average at 289th in offensive pace.

Pick published: Feb 4 6:16am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 625

Spread

Delaware St. +5.0 -110

Lost: 65-75

Morgan St. vs. Delaware St.

Sat Feb 4 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Delaware State wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model spread pick but is a play based on roster trends and news.
  • Morgan State is dead last in defensive rebounding, and their numbers have been even worse recently, with injuries to their two best rebounders. They have had their three worst opponent-adjusted games in the last four contests, with both out.
  • Delaware State has covered 5 of the last 6, and won the last three outright as underdogs, since making Corey Perkins the starting point guard.

Pick published: Feb 4 5:51am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306594

Spread

Arkansas -11.5 -110

Lost: 65-63

Arkansas at South Carolina

Sat Feb 4 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arkansas wins the game by more than 11 on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick in CBB for Saturday.
  • It's also a play based on matchup trends.
  • South Carolina has really struggled in SEC play other than the surprise upset at Kentucky. 
  • They've particularly struggled against teams that can create turnovers, as they are 3-0 ATS in conference play in the games against teams that are outside the top 200 in defensive turnover rate, but 0-6 ATS otherwise in the SEC.
  • Arkansas rates 47th nationally in defensive turnover rate.
  • Arkansas has also performed better against teams that rate poorly in offensive turnovers, going 8-3-1 ATS against teams outside the top 200 in turnover rate.
  • Arkansas is also one of the best interior scoring teams South Carolina has faced, another area where the Gamecocks have struggled.

Pick published: Feb 4 5:09am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 679

Spread

Saint Mary's -4.5 -110

Won: 78-70

Gonzaga at Saint Mary's

Sat Feb 4 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: St. Mary's wins by more than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on matchup trends.
  • Gonzaga is only 7-14-1 ATS this year, but has particularly struggled against teams that play at a slower offensive pace, going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS (with an average Game Score of +4.5 compared to +19 for all other games) against teams outside the top 200 in offensive pace.
  • St. Mary's is 359th in the country at offensive pace. 
  • Gonzaga is also 1-7 ATS against teams that rank in the top 50 in defensive rebound rate, and St. Mary's is 3rd nationally in that regard.

Pick published: Feb 3 4:54pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 822

Spread

New Hampshire -2.5 -105

Won: 74-67

New Hampshire at NJIT

Wed Feb 1 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Hampshire wins the game by more than 2 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • It is also a pick based on player news and participation trends.
  • New Hampshire has been about 10 points better with Nick Johnson in the starting lineup, compared to the first seven games of the year.
  • NJIT has been without leading scorer Miles Coleman after he left early in the game three games ago. They did upset UMBC in the last game, but that is entirely due to outside shooting differences (5-of-21 for UMBC vs. 9-of-19 for NJIT from three) offsetting disadvantages at inside scoring and turnovers.

Pick published: Feb 1 11:33am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 306533

Spread

Utah St. -4.5 -110

Won: 84-73

New Mexico at Utah St.

Wed Feb 1 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah State wins the game by more than 4 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • The model is picking up some of the differences in defensive performance and opponent splits on two-point versus three-point shots as a factor.
  • Utah State and New Mexico rank similarly in overall defensive efficiency in Mountain West play, but New Mexico is dead last in conference play in two-point defense percentage and block rate, and 1st in three-point percentage against. Utah State is 1st in two-point percentage defense but 10th in three-point percentage.
  • New Mexico is also a low volume outside shooting team, playing into Utah State's strengths, as the Lobos have the 10th-lowest three-point attempt rate in the country.

Pick published: Feb 1 11:16am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 728

Spread

Furman -10.5 -110

Won: 79-58

Chattanooga at Furman

Wed Feb 1 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Furman wins by more than 10 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on team trends and player news.
  • Chattanooga lost star center Jake Stephens to an injury three games ago, and are 1-2 ATS and SU, and are 10.5 points worse than their performance in games with Stephens so far, in that limited sample size. 
  • They did cover and win their last game, but that was entirely due to three-point shooting, as they hit 12-of-23 from deep, and were +18 in three-point scoring in a 9-point win. Chattanooga shot only 34% from inside the arc without Stephens in that game.
  • Furman is 7-1 ATS since the start of January, and is third nationally in two-point shooting (58%), and should have an advantage inside against a team playing without its best rebounder, shot blocker, and interior scorer.

Pick published: Feb 1 11:00am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 674

Spread

Kentucky -7.5 -110

Won: 75-66

Kentucky at Mississippi

Tue Jan 31 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kentucky wins the game by more than 7 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
  • These teams are also going in opposite directions in recent trends.
  • Kentucky's current starting lineup for the past five games, with Cason Wallace starting at PG and Sahvir Wheeler coming off bench, has been nine points better than their first 16 games, when they had several injuries and shifting lineups.
  • Ole Miss has been 7.5 points worse over the last 10 games compared to the first 11 games of the year, and were https://247sports.com/college/ole-miss/Article/Kermit-Davis-reveals-why-Daeshun-Ruffin-was-left-at-home-when-Ole-Miss-Rebels-faced-Oklahoma-State-203837970/without starters Matthew Murrell and Daeshun Ruffin in the last game at Oklahoma State.

Pick published: Jan 31 10:43am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 645

Spread

West Virginia +2.5 -105

Lost: 72-76

West Virginia at Texas Christian

Tue Jan 31 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: West Virginia wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on player news.
  • TCU's Mike Miles, the leading scorer for the Horned Frogs, suffered a hyperextended knee in the first few minutes of Saturday's loss at Mississippi State, and is out indefinitely. 
  • In 4 games that Miles has missed or left early (Saturday's game) so far this year, TCU is 7 points worse than in games that he plays regular minutes.
  • West Virginia also has a matchup advantage in offensive rebounding, where TCU ranks 298th nationally in defensive rebounding while the Mountaineers are 28th in offensive rebound rate.

Pick published: Jan 31 10:30am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 647

Over/Under

Iowa St. at Texas Tech Under 128.5 -105

Lost: 157 points

Mon Jan 30 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State and Texas Tech combine for fewer than 129 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under model pick for Monday in CBB.
  • Both teams have some short term three-point shooting trends that offer regression potential on the total.
  • Iowa State's last two opponents, Kansas State and Missouri, have made 23-of-46 from outside in the last two games, and the Cyclones allowed more than 70 points for the first time since December 8th.
  • Iowa State still allows a low number of possessions and does not allow a lot of two-point scoring, as only 42% of opponent points come from two-point range for the year.
  • Texas Tech is coming off an uncharacteristic 11-of-18 from three in their win over LSU on Saturday, easily the best percentage they have shot for the year.
  • Iowa State will likely be without guard Caleb Grill for the second game in a row due to a back injury, and he is second in made three-pointers on the team for the year.
  • Texas Tech will likely be without guard Pop Isaacs, who leads the team in made threes for the Red Raiders this year.

Pick published: Jan 30 11:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 876

Spread

CSU Northridge +16.0 -110

Lost: 56-81

CSU Northridge at UC Irvine

Sat Jan 28 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: CSU Northridge wins the game or loses by fewer than 16 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on player availability and team trends.
  • UC-Irvine's 7-foot center Bent Leuchten had arthroscopic knee surgery three weeks ago and has missed the last five games, and UC-Irvine's average performance is 5 points worse when adjusting for opponent.

Pick published: Jan 28 11:59am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 793

Spread

Mississippi St. +2.5 -105

Won: 81-74

Texas Christian at Mississippi St.

Sat Jan 28 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Mississippi State wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Mississippi State's strength is their offensive rebounding, which is one of TCU's relative weaknesses.
  • TCU's best rebounder and interior defender, Eddie Lampkin, missed the last game with an ankle injury and his status is up in the air for this one. Mississippi State center Tolu Smith will present a mismatch if Lampkin is out or limited, as TCU has only one other rotation player over 6'7".

Pick published: Jan 28 10:39am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 692

Spread

Utah Valley -10.5 -110

Lost: 77-72

New Mexico St. at Utah Valley

Sat Jan 28 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah Valley wins the game by more than 10 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on team trends.
  • We are going to repeat our comments from last weekend's ATS pick win against New Mexico State with a lot of these.
  • New Mexico State has the lowest average rating in our "momentum" measure among teams playing on Saturday, as the team has been in free fall mode over the last month. New Mexico State averaged a +6.3 Game Score in the first 10 games but is at -7.9 over the last ten.
  • The Aggies are in the first year with new coach Greg Heiar, after Chris Jans went to Mississippi State, and have had the truly unique situation with the shooting involving freshman Mike Peake, and the aftermath that came out in December that could be a factor affecting the team.
  • New Mexico State's poor play is just getting worse, as their three worst games by adjusted Game Score have come in the last three, and they are dead last in defensive efficiency and most defensive metrics in WAC play. They are allowing opponents an effective field goal percentage of 59% in conference play.
  • New Mexico State is also dead last in block rate, while Utah Valley is first in the conference.
  • Utah Valley is 2nd in two-point shooting percentage, trailing only a Southern Utah team that just scored 111 points against New Mexico State two games ago.

Pick published: Jan 28 9:48am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 696

Spread

Wake Forest -3.5 -110

Lost: 77-79

NC State at Wake Forest

Sat Jan 28 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wake Forest wins the game by more than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a borderline playable pick right now, and a pick based on player injury participation and recent team trends.
  • NC State Center Dusan Mahorcic suffered a dislocated patella back in early December and forward Jack Clark suffered a core muscle injury in early January, and they are the two best defensive rebounders on the team, leaving NC State thin on the front line. 
  • The Wolfpack's defensive numbers have been on the decline in recent weeks, with defensive rebounding being a major component. NC State is 1-3 ATS in the last four, have posted two subpar performances in a row, and got the cover three games ago because Georgia Tech was 2-for-21 from three.
  • Wake Forest is 7-2 ATS in the last nine, and has some positive regression potential on opponent threes, as opponents have hit 33 of 71 in the last two games, the two highest percentage and highest total games allowed all year.

Pick published: Jan 28 9:30am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 620

Spread

West Virginia -3.5 -110

Lost: 80-77

Auburn at West Virginia

Sat Jan 28 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: West Virginia wins by more than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Ensemble Forecast model spread pick for CBB on Saturday.
  • It's also a play based on matchup factors.
  • The most similar Auburn opponent to West Virginia is the one they just lost to on Wednesday to end their home court win streak, Texas A&M, in terms of rebounding, turnovers, and defensive approach and pressure.
  • Auburn is 1-4 ATS against top 50 teams in offensive rebounding, failing to cover by an average of 9 points (West Virginia is 25th in that category). In contrast, Auburn is 5-2 against teams outside the top 150 in offensive rebounding, and they rank 284th nationally in defensive rebounding rate, their biggest weakness on defense.
  • Auburn has also struggled against physical, aggressive teams that foul and draw lots of fouls. They are 1-4 ATS against teams that are bottom 100 in free throw rate allowed on defense, and 3-5 ATS against teams that are top 100 in free throw rate on offense. West Virginia games feature a lot of fouls on both sides.

Pick published: Jan 27 5:22pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 602

Spread

UC Davis -7.5 -115

Won: 79-58

UC Davis at CSU Bakersfield

Thu Jan 26 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UC-Davis wins the game by more than 7 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on player participation and injury news.
  • CS-Bakersfield lost starting point guard Kaleb Higgins to a season-ending knee injury on January 5th, and are about 6 points worse in games played without him, after adjusting for opponent, and are 1-4 ATS over the last five without him.
  • The two tallest players on the roster, Modestas Kancleris and Ugnius Jarusevicius, both missed the last game with injuries and are expected to be out multiple weeks, and the team is thin in the frontcourt now as well.

Pick published: Jan 26 1:23pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 821

Spread

Florida International -1.0 -110

Won: 78-69

Western Kentucky at Florida International

Thu Jan 26 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida International wins the game by more than a point on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model spread picks for Thursday in CBB.
  • In addition, it's a play here because of player injury and participation news for Western Kentucky.
  • Western Kentucky's 7'5" center Jamarion Sharp missed the last game with a hip injury and his status for this game is uncertain, while the team's leading outside shooter, Luke Frampton, just suffered a torn ACL in the last game. 
  • Florida International is playing better of late as well, and after a 2-8 ATS start to the year, are 6-2 ATS since December 31st.

Pick published: Jan 26 12:53pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 744

Spread

Wofford +2.0 -110

Won: 85-80

Wofford at Chattanooga

Wed Jan 25 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wofford wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a play based on player injury news.
  • Chattanooga's 7-foot center Jake Stephens suffered a hand injury and missed the last game, a 16-point loss to East Tennessee State. Stephens leads the team in points (21.8), rebounds (10.2), assists (3.6), and blocks (2.4). Based on coach comments, it sounds like a multi-game injury and his return timeline is uncertain.
  • Chattanooga allowed ETSU to make 69% of its two-point attempts without Stephens (50% allowed for season with him.)

Pick published: Jan 25 12:12pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 691

Over/Under

Air Force at San Jose St. Under 126.5 -110

Lost: 134 points

Tue Jan 24 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Air Force and San Jose State combine for fewer than 127 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model Over/Under for Tuesday in CBB.
  • These are two of the three lowest-paced teams in the Mountain West, and both are in the bottom 15 in all of Division 1 in offensive pace, so they will need higher efficiency to go Over.
  • Air Force has played two of its three slowest-paced games in the last three contests, going Under with both of those.
  • San Jose State's last three opponents have had an effective field goal percentage of above 52%, with two high percentage three-point games, but they have held the previous 17 opponents under that mark 13 times, so there is regression potential from recent shooting trends here as well.
  • San Jose State opponents have made 77% of their free throws for the year, while Air Force's last three opponents have hit 85% of their free throws.

Pick published: Jan 24 11:48am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 654

Spread

Bowling Green -2.5 -110

Won: 83-61

Bowling Green at Central Michigan

Tue Jan 24 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bowling Green wins by more than 2 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for CBB on Tuesday.
  • Central Michigan was without two starters, Carrington McCaskill and leading scorer, Jesse Zarzuela, in the last game, a 28-point loss (+12.5 line) to Ohio, and while there is no public info on their status for this one, the line has started to move against Central Michigan.
  • Central Michigan is 0-3 ATS with an average result of -12.5 from the spread in games without Zarzuela this year.
  • Bowling Green had injury and illness issues a week ago, and lost two games by 45 combined points with multiple players out, but bounced back with a 10-point win on Saturday against Miami-Ohio.

Pick published: Jan 24 11:22am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 607

Spread

Iowa St. -5.0 -110

Lost: 80-76

Kansas St. at Iowa St.

Tue Jan 24 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State wins the game by more than 5 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model spread pick in CBB for Tuesday.
  • Iowa State's defensive numbers have been stellar, as they lead the entire nation in turnover rate forced, and are first in Big 12 play in defensive rebounding.
  • Kansas State is one of the best at getting 2-point attempts but Iowa State limits opponents from inside and opponents tend to have to shoot more from outside against the Cyclones.
  • Kansas State is up to 5th in the AP Poll after getting to 17-2, but is 4-0 in OT (including 3-0 in Big 12 games) and is only the 6th-highest power-rated team in Big 12 play, and behind Iowa State. So you are getting a team shooting up in the rankings, on the road at a team that can tie them in the standings, and rates higher in a lot of underlying metrics.

Pick published: Jan 24 10:44am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 650

Spread

Kentucky -5.5 -110

Won: 69-53

Kentucky at Vanderbilt

Tue Jan 24 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kentucky wins by more than 5 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick for Tuesday in CBB.
  • Kentucky went through a mid-season swoon, but has won and covered three in a row starting with a win at Tennessee, and they are playing much better defensively, particularly with defensive rebounding, and have been dominating on the boards in the last three. 
  • Vanderbilt is really thin on the front line due to injuries, and will be without their two best rebounders, including Liam Robbins, their 7-foot center and best rebounder, who has missed the last two games and is out for at least a month.
  • That depth is going to be a particular issue going against the team ranked 1st nationally in offensive rebounding and who is also 1st in the SEC in defensive rebounding rate.

Pick published: Jan 24 9:46am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 647

Spread

Binghamton +2.5 -115

Lost: 57-78

Binghamton at Maine

Sun Jan 22 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Binghamton wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean and also a pick based on the relative momentum and player participation factors.
  • Binghamton has an average rating of -15.9 in the eight games that guard/forward Armon Harried did not start (six missed with injury), and -3.2 in the ten games with him starting.
  • Binghamton is on a four-game win streak after a 4-10 start, and is 6-1 ATS since Harried returned to starting lineup.
  • Maine has lost eight straight, and the interior defense has been sliding, as they are down to 10th-worst nationally in 2-point percentage defense, and the last eight opponents have all finished with an effective FG percentage of 53% or better.

Pick published: Jan 22 10:02am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306621

Spread

Merrimack -2.5 -110

Won: 63-55

Merrimack at St. Francis (BKN)

Sun Jan 22 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Merrimack wins by more than 2 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • Our "momentum" measure shows these two teams going in opposite directions, and player participation and injury news is a factor.
  • Merrimack had missing starters in their first eight games and averaged a -15.7 Game Score to start the year.
  • With the current lineup over the last 12 games, they have an average Game Score of -8.7, a 7-point improvement.
  • In Northeast Conference play, Merrimack is No. 1 in overall defense and leads the league in opponent shooting percentage, steals, and turnovers forced.
  • St. Francis (Brooklyn-NY) has been without at least one starter in six of the last eight, and starting PG Rob Higgins has missed the last four games, and the team has been about 10 points worse over the last eight compared to rest of year.
  • St. Francis is dead last in offensive efficency in conference play, and shooting and turnovers have been an issue of late.

Pick published: Jan 22 9:48am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306615

Spread

Baylor -2.0 -110

Push: 62-60

Baylor at Oklahoma

Sat Jan 21 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baylor wins by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on recent team participation news and trends.
  • Baylor went through a December and early January stretch where guards Adam Flagler and L.J. Cryer missed a combined five games to injury, and they started the Big 12 conference season with three straight losses (to Iowa State, TCU, and Kansas State).
  • Baylor is a guard-oriented team, and they are much better when Flagler and Cryer are both available along with freshman star Keyontae George, and in the last three games they have returned to form and put up three straight excellent performances. 
  • That includes going to Texas Tech this week and putting up a 1.40 points per possession against a good defensive team, and turning the ball over only three times. 
  • George is emerging and playing even better with the full backcourt, as he has averaged 23 points per game in the last five, and has cut down on turnovers with both Flagler and Cryer also playing.

Pick published: Jan 21 11:20am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 721

Spread

St. Bonaventure -1.5 -108

Lost: 55-67

St. Bonaventure at Loyola-Chicago

Sat Jan 21 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: St. Bonaventure to win by more than 1 point on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick (though it is a model lean) but instead is a play based on team trends and news.
  • This is not the Loyola-Chicago team of recent vintage, as the Ramblers did okay and made the NCAA Tournament in head coach Drew Valentine's first year last season, but have gone into tank mode this year and the team is not trending in the right direction with one of the youngest coaches in college basketball.
  • Loyola is 3-15 ATS this year, and has failed to cover in eight straight, with five of the last six non-covers coming by double digits.
  • The Ramblers have allowed 76 or more points in seven straight games, a far cry from the defensive numbers of recent teams.
  • Saint Thomas, a starter at the beginning of the year, has left the program and not played in the last four games.
  • Senior starter Marquise Kennedy didn't start last game because of what was claimed to be a knee injury, but weirdly came in for 3 minutes in the second half of a 17-point loss, and his status is unknown going forward.

Pick published: Jan 21 10:37am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 703

Spread

Utah Tech -2.0 -105

Won: 89-76

New Mexico St. at Utah Tech

Sat Jan 21 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah Tech wins the game by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick on Saturday.
  • New Mexico State has the lowest average rating in our "momentum" measure among teams playing on Saturday, as the team has been in free fall mode over the last month. New Mexico State averaged a +6.3 Game Score in the first 10 games but is at -7.4 over the last nine.
  • The Aggies are in the first year with new coach Greg Heiar, after Chris Jans went to Mississippi State, and have had the truly unique situation with the shooting involving freshman Mike Peake, and the aftermath that came out in December that could be a factor affecting the team.
  • New Mexico State is coming off allowing 111 points in their last game, and in conference play are dead last in defensive efficiency and allowing opponents to make 58% of two-point attempts.

Pick published: Jan 21 10:04am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 808

Spread

Florida International -4.0 -115

Won: 77-72

Florida International at Texas-San Antonio

Sat Jan 21 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida International wins the game by more than 4 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • In addition, Texas-San Antonio's best player and point guard, Japhet Medor, coming off a 30-point performance last weekend, was in a walking boot and missed the last game against Florida Atlantic mid-week, and is unlikely to play Saturday.
  • The final score (losing by 19) was not indicative of the performance as UTSA trailed by 16 at half and FAU only played their starters an average of 20 minutes each.
  • FIU is 5-2 ATS since 12/25 while UTSA is 1-5-2.
  • UTSA is easily the worst defensive opponent that FIU has faced since early in the season, and the only bottom-tier team in terms of turnover rate forced since a 33-point win over Stony Brook in November.
     

Pick published: Jan 21 9:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 697

Over/Under

Hartford at Morgan St. Under 135.5 -105

Lost: 176 points

Wed Jan 18 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Hartford and Morgan State combine for fewer than 136 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • Hartford's last three games have gone Over but they are 6-10 on Over for the year, and opponent's have made 46% of three-pointers in the last three games. 
  • Morgan State's weakness is defensive rebounding but that's not an area that Hartford is likely to exploit, as they rank poorly in offensive rebound, and Morgan State has allowed only 60 points per game against the two worst offensive rebounding teams they faced this year, including 54 vs. Hartford in earlier meeting.

Pick published: Jan 18 10:55am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306684

Spread

Texas A&M -3.5 -115

Lost: 54-52

Florida at Texas A&M

Wed Jan 18 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game by more than 3 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • Texas A&M is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games, including a 1-4 win at Florida, and that run has been driven by better defensive rebounding and two-point shooting efficiency compared to full season.
  • Florida is 2-7 SU and ATS against top 100 defensive efficiency teams including the earlier loss to the Aggies, and relatively struggles against teams that force steals and turnovers like Texas A&M.

Pick published: Jan 18 9:51am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 686

Over/Under

Cleveland St. at Purdue Fort Wayne Over 137.5 -110

Lost: 132 points

Mon Jan 16 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cleveland State and Purdue Fort Wayne combine for more than 137 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under play on Monday in CBB.
  • Both of these teams rank in the top 35 in opponent three-point shooting percentage so far this year, at under 30%.
  • Purdue-Fort Wayne is 315th in two-point defense percentage for the year, and has been even worse at 59% allowed in the last three games.
  • Cleveland State is 301st for the year in three-point shooting but has been better of late, at 37% over the last six games.

Pick published: Jan 16 10:05am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 887

Spread

Purdue -3.5 -110

Lost: 64-63

Purdue at Michigan St.

Mon Jan 16 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Purdue wins the game by more than 3 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top playable spread picks for Monday in CBB.
  • Michigan State forward Malik Hall suffered another ankle/foot injury in the second half of the loss at Illinois on Friday, and his status is up in the air for this game, and he is important to Michigan State's defense, especially going against a team like Purdue.
  • Purdue is No. 1 in the nation in offensive rebounding rate, and going against top 100 defensive rebounding teams like Michigan State, they are 3-0 ATS (Duke, Gonzaga, and Penn State).

Pick published: Jan 16 9:42am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 863

Spread

North Dakota St. -2.5 -110

Won: 78-65

North Dakota St. at Nebraska Omaha

Sat Jan 14 • 1:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Dakota State wins by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick, and also a play based on recent team trends.
  • We just had North Dakota State as a mid-week pick as well, so we will re-post some of the same notes.
  • North Dakota State rates highly in our "momentum" measure looking at recent game performances more heavily.
  • North Dakota State is one of the 10 least-experienced D1 schools this year, but young players have been emerging, including freshman point guard Damari Wheeler-Thomas having his best game last week against South Dakota, and sophomore center/forward Andrew Morgan having two of his best games recently, and leading the Summit League in offensive rebound rate in conference play. Forward Grant Nelson has also emerged as a all-conference player.
  • North Dakota State has been rebounding and defending well of late, and are coming off their most efficient offensive game of the year.

Pick published: Jan 14 12:32pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 629

Spread

Austin Peay +7.5 -110

Lost: 72-86

Austin Peay at Lipscomb

Sat Jan 14 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Austin Peay wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Austin Peay and Lipscomb are playing a Thursday-Saturday back-to-back, and Lipscomb just won by 22 points as a 1-point dog at Austin Peay on Thursday.
  • That game was the second-worst game for Austin Peay all year (adjusting for opponent) and the best game for Lipscomb all year.
  • Two years ago, D1 teams scheduled a lot of back-to-backs (played within 2 days of each other) because of COVID, and when we researched it, there was some value on going against the team that covered the first matchup, especially in games where the first result was further from the spread.

Pick published: Jan 14 12:16pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306631

Spread

Missouri +5.5 -110

Lost: 64-73

Missouri at Florida

Sat Jan 14 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Missouri wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on matchup factors.
  • Florida has performed worse against high-pressure turnover defenses, going 0-4 ATS against teams in the top 75 in defensive turnover rate, failing to cover by an average of 17 points. Missouri is 4th in the nation in turnover rate on defense, the highest-ranked team in that category that Missouri has faced.
  • Missouri's weakness on defense is rebounding, including going against one of the best in the country in Texas A&M mid-week in a 14-point loss, but Florida is 296th in offensive rebound rate, and is dead last in the SEC in that category.
  • Missouri has actually done well against teams that have a high block rate and shot blockers, going 6-2 ATS against top 100 teams in that category, and Florida is 16th in that category nationally.

Pick published: Jan 14 11:20am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 679

Spread

Stanford +2.5 -115

Lost: 69-86

Stanford at Washington

Thu Jan 12 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Stanford wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model play for Thursday in CBB and one of the highest-rated plays all season.
  • Stanford is coming off their worst performance of the year (22-point loss to Cal), but one that was driven by extreme three-point performance. Stanford was 64% on two-point attempts, but Cal hit 16-of-22 on three-point shots and were +27 on points from beyond the arc.
  • Among the other model factors are Washington's low three-point shooting percentage for the year and in recent games, Stanford opponent's getting a low percentage of points from two in recent games, and Washington opponents getting a high rate of offensive boards in recent games.

Pick published: Jan 12 12:04pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 851

Spread

North Dakota St. +1.0 -110

Won: 90-70

North Dakota St. at Denver

Thu Jan 12 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Dakota State wins the game on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our highest-rated model plays for CBB on Thursday.
  • The line at DK is also a bit off-market, as most books have North Dakota State as the 1-point favorite now (this pick is still playable at -1/-1.5/-2).
  • North Dakota State also rates highly in our "momentum" measure looking at recent game performances more heavily, while Denver rates poorly.
  • North Dakota State is one of the 10 least-experienced D1 schools this year, but young players have been emerging, including freshman point guard Damari Wheeler-Thomas having his best game in the last game against South Dakota, and sophomore center/forward Andrew Morgan having two of his best games recently, and leading the Summit League in offensive rebound rate in conference play.
  • Some other model factors include North Dakota's State's excellent defensive efficiency in the last three games, Denver's reliance on offensive rebounding in recent games (and North Dakota State being easily the best defensive rebounding team they have faced) and Denver's high shooting percentage relative to their other offensive efficiency measures (rank poorly in turnovers and rebounding relative to shooting).

Pick published: Jan 12 11:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 823

Spread

Texas A&M -4.5 -105

Won: 82-64

Missouri at Texas A&M

Wed Jan 11 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game by more than 4 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model picks for Wednesday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on the matchup strengths and weaknesses in this game.
  • Texas A&M ranks in the top 20 in offensive rebounding rate in Division 1, while Missouri ranks in the bottom 10 in defensive rebounding, and it's their biggest flaw defensively.
  • Three of Texas A&M's four worst spread performances were in the three games against the best defensive rebounding teams they have faced, while they are 4-1 ATS against opponents ranking outside the Top 250 in defensive rebounding.

Pick published: Jan 11 8:24am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 736

Spread

Vermont +1.5 -106

Lost: 65-80

Vermont at Massachusetts Lowell

Wed Jan 11 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Vermont wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for CBB on Wednesday.
  • Our momentum measure also shows that Vermont is playing much better lately and UMass-Lowell has struggled in recent games.
  • UMass-Lowell started the year 8-1 ATS but is 0-5-1 ATS over the last six games, and have been 16 points worse in the last six games compared to the first nine.
  • Vermont has been six points better in their last six games, with the current lineup, compared to the earlier games.
  • Vermont's shooting and offensive efficiency has been higher in the games with the current starting lineup.

Pick published: Jan 11 7:41am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306507

Over/Under

Auburn at Mississippi Over 133.0 -110

Won: 155 points

Tue Jan 10 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Auburn and Mississippi combine for more than 133 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable over/under model pick for CBB on Tuesday.
  • Recent shooting trends provide regression potential, such as Auburn opponents shooting only 22% from three in recent games. 
  • Both teams rate poorly in outside shooting, and those numbers also provide some positive regression potential as both are 25% or under to start conference play from beyond the arc.
  • Both teams are good offensive rebounding teams and rate worse on the defensive rebounding end.

Pick published: Jan 10 3:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 647

Over/Under

Air Force at Colorado St. Under 133.5 -115

Lost: 159 points

Tue Jan 10 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Air Force and Colorado State combine for fewer than 134 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model over/under pick for Tuesday in CBB, and our highest-rated play currently for the entire season.
  • Some of the factors our model is identifying include recent high shooting percentages both from the field and free throw line by Colorado State opponents, Air Force hitting a high rate of threes (39%) in the last seven games versus full season rates, and low possessions per game in Colorado State games.

Pick published: Jan 10 3:49pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 642

Moneyline

Oklahoma St. To Win +145

Lost: 46-56

Texas at Oklahoma St.

Sat Jan 7 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oklahoma State wins the game on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick according to our models.
  • Further, Texas just fired head coach Chris Beard after he was suspended a month ago. Texas' average rating with Beard before suspension was +21.4, and since the suspension is +12.0, a nine-point dropoff in average performance.
  • Texas' defensive numbers have been worse since Beard's suspension, while they are also playing the best defensive team they have faced this year by defensive efficiency metrics.

Pick published: Jan 7 11:29am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 614

Over/Under

Georgetown at Marquette Under 156.0 -110

Lost: 168 points

Sat Jan 7 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgetown and Marquette combine for fewer than 156 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest rated model Over/Under play for Saturday in CBB.
  • Georgetown has allowed 43% shooting from three-point range over the last three games (while still going Under in two of them) compared to 36% for the full year.
  • While Marquette is far more offensively-skewed and has relatively below average defensive metrics for a top team, the Georgetown Hoyas are a poor shooting team less likely to take advantage. Georgetown has averaged only 29% from three and five made three-pointers over the last seven.
  • Georgetown's second half point margins are poor, which also creates some Under leans as they are less likely to push the scoring environment in a close game late.

 

 

Pick published: Jan 7 10:55am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 660

Spread

Furman -7.5 -110

Won: 70-56

Furman at East Tennessee St.

Sat Jan 7 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Furman wins by more than 7 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is currently our highest-rated playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Furman leads the nation in two-point shooting % (61%) and has been at 60% or higher in eight of the last nine games.
  • East Tennessee State ranks 297th in defensive two-point percentage.
  • East Tennessee State will also likely be without starting forward Josh Taylor and reserve forward Brock Jancek due to injury, the two players with the highest effective field goal percentage for the team this year.
  • Taylor is also has the highest shot block rate for ETSU, and his loss could be even bigger against a great shooting team like Furman.

Pick published: Jan 7 10:17am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 701

Spread

Eastern Washington -6.5 -108

Won: 92-80

Portland St. at Eastern Washington

Thu Jan 5 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Eastern Washington wins the game by more than 6 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick, but is a staff pick based on team trends and matchup factors.
  • Eastern Washington is playing much better in recent games than their season average, ranking highly in our momentum factor.
  • With the current starting lineup (6 games) they are +9.6 points better than with all other lineups, and 6-0 ATS. Eastern Washington is 8-1 ATS in last nine games after an 0-5 ATS start to year.
  • The primary stat improvements with the current lineup are better shooting, and they have won the rebounding edge against all recent opponents except power conference school Texas Tech.
  • Opponent Portland State ranks poorly in rebounding efficiency on both offense and defense, giving the current Eastern Washington lineup a significant edge there.
  • Portland State's three worst opponent-adjusted games have come in their last five. 

Pick published: Jan 5 3:53pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 808

Over/Under

Charlotte at Florida International Under 134.5 -110

Won: 122 points

Thu Jan 5 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Charlotte and Florida International combine for fewer than 135 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model Under play for Thursday in CBB.
  • Both of these teams have had short-term higher shooting percentages impact Overs, but are 5-6-3 and 5-6 against Overs for the full season.
  • Both teams have shot well on 2-point attempts this year, and even better in the last three games. 
  • Charlotte is a really good defensive team at stopping 2-point attempts, and Florida International is not a great outside shooting team.
  • Charlotte ranks near the top of D-1 in three-point shooting but near the bottom in three-point rate allowed, areas of regression, as they play at one of the slowest paces on offense.

Pick published: Jan 5 12:10pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 746

Spread

Bradley -5.0 -105

Lost: 58-67

Bradley at Murray St.

Wed Jan 4 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bradley wins by more than 5 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick in CBB on Wednesday.
  • Bradley is also a team that is playing much better since getting first team preseason all-conference center Rienk Mast returned from a knee injury, going 6-3 ATS over the last nine games with him, and having an average Game Score 14 points better with him than without.

Pick published: Jan 4 3:16pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 703

Spread

Loyola-Chicago +4.5 -110

Lost: 57-80

Loyola-Chicago at Davidson

Wed Jan 4 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Loyola-Chicago wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated playable spread pick in CBB on Wednesday.
  • Loyola-Chicago started the year 0-6 ATS, but has played relatively better since switching their starting lineup after five games, and have been much better at not turning the ball over after that start.
  • Davidson has four of their five worst offensive efficiency games in the last four games.
  • Davidson is one of the worst defensive teams at blocking shots while Loyola-Chicago rates highly at scoring in the paint and hitting a high percentage of two-point shots (58%).

Pick published: Jan 4 11:10am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 669

Moneyline

New Orleans To Win -115

Lost: 96-101

New Orleans at Houston Christian

Fri Dec 30 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Orleans wins the game on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated playable moneyline pick in college basketball, and so far this year, games with this rated edge are +3.5 units (21 games).
  • New Orleans and Houston Christian are the two worst teams in the country at defending 2-point shots, but Houston Christian (68%) is by far worst (compared to 62% for New Orleans) and that poor interior defense is one factor in this game.
  • New Orleans opponents have also shot 50% or more from three in two of the last three games, the two highest shooting performances against all year, in an area of positive regression potential.
  • New Orleans does not rely on a high volume of outside shots, and this will be by far the easiest opponent they have faced in terms of getting quality shots inside.

Pick published: Dec 30 7:56am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306591

Over/Under

Chattanooga at The Citadel Under 146.5 -105

Won: 144 points

Thu Dec 29 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chattanooga and The Citadel combine for fewer than 147 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under play for Thursday in CBB.
  • Both of these teams are on shorter term Over streaks thanks to some regression factors that could provide value.
  • Chattanooga is shooting 39% from three this year, and their last seven opponents have shot 38% from three.
  • Chattanooga games have involved a high rate of free throws, and Citadel opponents have also shot a lot of free throws in recent games. 
  • Chattanooga's most recent three opponents have also shot 82% from the free throw line when they have gotten there.

Pick published: Dec 29 11:57am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 690

Spread

Illinois St. +1.0 -110

Lost: 51-55

Illinois St. at Illinois-Chicago

Wed Dec 28 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Illinois State wins the game on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model spread picks in CBB on Wednesday.
  • Illinois State started the year 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS in head coach Ryan Pedon's first season, but have played better lately, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS over the last six games.
  • The offense has gotten more efficient, as they were among the worst at turning the ball over, and this improved play hasn't been driven by extreme outside shooting luck (as they and opponents are both shooting 35% from three over that span).

Pick published: Dec 28 1:48pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 633

Spread

Bradley -1.5 -105

Lost: 60-63

Bradley at Belmont

Wed Dec 28 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bradley wins the game by more than 1 point on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but a pick based on WOWY (With or Without You) Roster analysis.
  • Bradley was without first-team preseason all-conference center Rienk Mast for the first six games of the season.
  • Since his return, Bradley is about 14 points better after adjusting for opponent, and even with some regression, look like a much better team with him in the lineup.
  • They are 5-2 ATS since his return, with the average result +10.2 better than the spread in Bradley's favor.
  • This spread is directly on what we would expect based on the full season results, without accounting for any difference with and without Mast.
  • Bradley is also the best defensive team in the Missouri Valley, and is playing a Belmont team that ranks in the lower half of the nation in defensive efficiency stats. 

Pick published: Dec 28 1:31pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 631

Over/Under

Villanova at Connecticut Under 136.5 -110

Lost: 140 points

Wed Dec 28 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Villanova and Connecticut combine for fewer than 137 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model Over/Under for Wednesday in CBB.
  • Villanova has won five straight after a 2-5, and a big change has been on the defensive end, where they have held the last five to 66 points or fewer, and have limited the last four opponents to under 50 percent effective field goal percentage.
  • Villanova relies on shooting a high rate of threes, but Connecticut is one of the best in the nation at both preventing three-point attempts and defending them, as the most they makes they have allowed in any game so far is six.
  • Connecticut is by far the strongest defensive team Villanova has faced, ranking near the top of the nation in overall defensive efficiency.
  • Villanova is really good at avoiding turnovers, and plays at the slowest pace of any UConn opponent this year, which should result in lowered number of possessions.

Pick published: Dec 28 1:01pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 612

Spread

Iona -9.5 -110

Lost: 81-85

Iona vs. Southern Methodist

Thu Dec 22 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iona wins by more than 9 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick in CBB on Thursday.
  • This game is in Hawaii as part of the Diamond Head Classic, and Iona got an early start on travel to Hawaii with a Dec. 18th game at New Mexico (coach by Rick Pitino's son Richard) and then traveling on.
  • Iona has been efficient on offense in recent games, and is one of the best in the nation at avoiding turnovers.
  • Iona also creates turnovers and plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, and is really good at limiting opponent three-point attempts.
  • SMU has struggled in Rob Lanier's first season in Dallas, particularly on offense, and is 2-7-1 ATS.

Pick published: Dec 22 10:59am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 861

Spread

Chicago St. +12.5 -110

Won: 55-58

Chicago St. at Minnesota

Thu Dec 22 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chicago State wins the game or loses by fewer than 13 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • Chicago State has covered 8 of the last 12 after starting the year with two 20+ point losses, while Minnesota is 3-7-1 ATS.
  • Since Chicago State went to the current lineup seven games ago, they have been about 7 points better in average Game Score compared to the previous games.
  • Chicago State covered two games ago against Southern Illinois despite going 5-for-27 inside the arc, and there is some positive regression potential in recent shooting.
  • Minnesota is a poor free throw shooting team (60%) something that could come into play late with a lead, and both these teams play at a below-average pace on offense, which should reduce possessions.

Pick published: Dec 22 10:37am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 839

Over/Under

Jackson St. at Stephen F. Austin Under 145.5 -110

Lost: 149 points

Thu Dec 22 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jackson State and SFA combine for fewer than 146 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is tied for our top playable model Over/Under pick in CBB on Thursday.
  • Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25 at opponent three-point shooting on the season (over 38%), while Stephen F. Austin is 10th in three-point shooting (40%), areas of negative regression potential to the Under.
  • Both teams also rate poorly at turnovers on offense, while SFA is one of the best at turnovers, and those rates have been higher in the last three games for both.
  • Interestingly, though, when Jackson State has played other teams that rank highly (top 100) in forcing turnovers, those games have gone Under 4 of 5 times, with Jackson State committing 24.4 turnovers on average.

Pick published: Dec 22 10:21am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306754

Over/Under

Georgia Southern at Ball St. Under 136.5 -110

Won: 112 points

Wed Dec 21 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgia Southern and Ball State combine for fewer than 137 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable Over/Under model pick for Wednesday.
  • Ball State has shot 47% from three (40% overall on season) and opponents have shot 42% from three in the last two games, an area of regression potential and value.
  • Georgia Southern has been among the best in the country at avoiding blocks on offense, but they have also played a bunch of poor shot-blocking teams. All three other games against teams that rank in the Top 200 in block shot rate on defense went Under this year.
  • Ball State is a poor defensive rebounding team that gets offensive rebounds, but that is opposite for Georgia Southern, where they do not go for offensive rebounds at a high rate but control the defensive glass, factors that could neutralize each other.

Pick published: Dec 21 1:03pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 708

Spread

Northeastern +9.5 -110

Won: 73-70

Northeastern at Davidson

Wed Dec 21 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Northeastern wins the game or loses by fewer than 10 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated playable model spread picks on Wednesday in CBB.
  • Northeastern limits teams from shooting outside, and is decent at defending the paint, an area where Davidson relies on attacking.
  • Davidson does not have much rim protection, ranking near the bottom of D1 in blocked shots, and opponents blocking shots has been a problem for Northeastern in past games.
  • Davidson is also a poor rebounding team, an area where the underdog Northeastern team can have a relative advantage to generate some offense.

Pick published: Dec 21 12:48pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 671

Spread

Arizona St. -3.0 -110

Lost: 60-97

Arizona St. at San Francisco

Wed Dec 21 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona State wins the game by more than 3 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a staff pick based on WOWY (With or Without You) analysis.
  • We made Arizona State a Staff Pick against SMU two weeks ago, based on how the current lineup is playing, and since then they have also won and covered against Creighton and San Diego.
  • Arizona State's first four games are still their worst four Game Score performances, and since they shuffled the lineup and the transfer-heavy roster has settled in, they have been playing like a Top 10 team.
  • The average Game Score over the last eight games is +18.9, which would equate to a Top 5 team over the full season. They are 7-1 ATS, covering half those games by more than 12 points.
  • Arizona State's defensive numbers are stellar, ranking near the top of Division 1 in overall effective field goal %, two-point %, and three-point % on defense.
  • San Francisco only has one starter back from last year's tournament team, and a new coach, and has been inconsistent, recently beating UNLV but then losing to Texas-Arlington in the last game. 

Pick published: Dec 21 12:34pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 741

Spread

Pacific -12.5 -114

Lost: 74-65

Pacific at Lamar

Tue Dec 20 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pacific wins the game by more than 12 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for CBB on Tuesday.
  • It's also a play based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis of team lineup and roster trends.
  • Lamar has lost their last three games by a combined 86 points, failing to cover by double digits in all three.
  • Lamar has shuffled the lineup and three rotation players haven't played in the last three games, and the team was starting four freshmen in the last game.
  • Lamar is dead last in the nation in three-point shooting and bottom 10 in several offensive and defensive categories, as well as being in the bottom 10 in average height (and missing a 6'10 and 6'7 player in recent games).

Pick published: Dec 20 11:22am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306661

Spread

Notre Dame -3.0 -110

Lost: 62-77

Notre Dame vs. Georgia

Sun Dec 18 • 5:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Notre Dame wins the game by more than 3 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable spread pick for CBB on Sunday.
  • Notre Dame has underperformed so far, going only 2-8 ATS in a 7-3 start, with defensive efficiency numbers rating poorly.
  • They are still a highly efficient offense, and Georgia's opponents have shot poorly from three this year (26%) but Notre Dame is the best outside shooting team they have faced, and Georgia have played only one other top 100 team in three-point shooting (Bucknell) and one other top 50 offense in efficiency (UAB).
  • Georgia relies on getting on the offensive glass to generate points, but that is the one area that Notre Dame excels on the defensive end. Georgia has also not faced good defensive rebounding teams, and has not played another top 100 defensive rebound team since the first two games (0-2 ATS).

Pick published: Dec 18 11:42am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 755

Over/Under

Rhode Island at Georgia St. Over 127.0 -110

Won: 141 points

Sun Dec 18 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Rhode Island and Georgia State combine for more than 127 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model over/under pick for CBB on Sunday.
  • There are several regression factors our models are picking up in this game.
  • Both teams rate very poorly in shooting (Georgia State is dead last in D1 in three-point percentage) and Georgia State's outside shooting has been only 19% over the last three games.
  • Both teams have had a high percentage of their shots blocked, but both have faced some pretty good shot-blocking defenses. Playing each other, both rank more middle of the pack.
  • Rhode Island opponents have also shot poorly from outside.
  • Rhode Island opponents have had a very low number of free throw attempts in the last three games, averaging less than 13 per game over that span.

Pick published: Dec 18 11:22am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 727

Over/Under

Florida International at Florida Atlantic Under 152.5 -112

Won: 132 points

Sat Dec 17 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida International and Florida Atlantic combine for fewer than 153 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable Over/Under model pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Florida Atlantic has been really good at defending two-point attempts (44%) all season.
  • FIU relies on their interior scoring and FAU's defense can neutralize that in this matchup.
  • Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic have had a hot three-game stretch of shooting, hitting over half their three-pointers and over 60% from two, and some regression potential provides value even though they are a good offensive team.
  • Florida International has turned the ball over at a higher rate in their last three games, also providing some regression potential.

Pick published: Dec 17 10:08am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 624

Spread

Eastern Illinois -2.5 -110

Won: 70-59

Eastern Illinois at IUPUI

Sat Dec 17 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Eastern Illinois wins by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model spread pick in CBB on Saturday.
  • Both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 in all of Division 1, and neither has won a D1 game yet this year, but IUPUI is the worst team in our power ratings.
  • IUPUI is also worse at some key predictive indicators, allowing opponents to shoot a really high (60%) rate at two-point shots, being among the worst in D1 at turning the ball over, and shooting poorly from outside on offense.
  • Eastern Illinois doesn't do a lot well either, but they do rate highly in generating turnovers, an area where they should have a significant advantage in this matchup.
     

Pick published: Dec 17 9:54am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 607

Spread

San Jose St. -1.5 -105

Lost: 58-59

San Jose St. at Pacific

Sat Dec 17 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Jose State wins the game by more than 1 point on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick on Saturday in CBB.
  • These are two teams trending in opposite directions, with San Jose State covering 5 of 7 while Pacific has gone 2-6 ATS after starting 3-0.
  • San Jose State's only two non-covers in the last 7 games have come against easily the best defensive teams they have faced (Arkansas and North Texas) and Pacific is the opposite of that, ranking outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency.
  • Among other factors our models are picking up are Pacific's low rate of forcing steals in recent games, San Jose State opponents hitting a high rate of threes, and San Jose State performing well on the boards in recent games.

Pick published: Dec 17 9:46am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 673

Over/Under

Creighton at Marquette Under 153.5 -110

Won: 127 points

Fri Dec 16 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Creighton and Marquette combine for fewer than 154 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Over/Under model play for CBB on Friday.
  • Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner missed the last two games, last Saturday and Monday, with illness and both went Over. He should return tonight.
  • Creighton has lost five straight games, and over those five have attempted 47% of their FGA from behind the arc (vs. 40% in wins), so regression in outside shooting attempts, and going more to Kalkbrenner on his return, could impact scoring.
  • Marquette is 6-5 on the Over this year, but going against teams that rank in the top 30 in avoiding turnovers, they are only 1-3 on Overs.
  • Marquette likes to force steals and turnovers to create quick scoring chances, but 3 of the 4 slowest-paced games for them have come against those teams that are good at avoiding turnovers.

Pick published: Dec 16 11:47am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 884

Spread

Delaware +6.5 -110

Won: 76-69

Delaware at Princeton

Fri Dec 16 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Delaware wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick in CBB for Friday.
  • Delaware ranks near the top at avoiding turnovers, and has been even better in recent games.
  • Princeton, meanwhile, does not force turnovers, ranking in the bottom 20 in D1, so this is a game where the underdog Blue Hens should have a low turnover rate.
  • Princeton's last three opponents have shot poorly from three, hitting only 24 percent, providing some regression value there against Princeton.

Pick published: Dec 16 11:15am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 875

Spread

Seton Hall -13.5 -115

Won: 66-49

Drexel at Seton Hall

Wed Dec 14 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Seton Hall wins by more than 13 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model spread picks in CBB for Wednesday.
  • Seton Hall has been an inconsistent team, going 5-4 ATS with seven of the nine games finishing 10 or more points from the spread.
  • They have struggled against good shooting teams, as they are 0-4 ATS (with all failing to cover by 15+ points) against the four best outside shooting teams they have faced in Iowa, Kansas, Siena, and Oklahoma.
  • They are 5-0 ATS against everyone else, and blew out the most similar opponent to Drexel in style and quality, Wagner, by a score of 82-44 early in the year. Drexel is a slow-paced team that typically doesn't turn it over but only shoots 32% from three-point range.

Pick published: Dec 14 11:47am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 644

Over/Under

Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Minnesota Under 137.5 -105

Won: 128 points

Wed Dec 14 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Minnesota combine for under 138 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under in college basketball according to our models, with estimated 54.5% cover odds.
  • Both these teams have been Under more than Over this year (3-5 for AR-PB and 3-7 for MINN) though two recent games for Minnesota have gone over.
  • Outside shooting allowed has been a big factor, and Minnesota has allowed 47% in the last three games while AR-PB has allowed 42% in the last three D1 games, so we expect some regression there from short-term shooting against.
  • AR-PB has had a couple of hot outside shooting games (TCU, Nebraska) but rate as one of the worst shooting teams in D1, and have averaged under 56 points per game against Power 5 competition, going 1-4 on the Over in those games.
  • All four of Minnesota's games against mid-majors have gone Under so far this year.

Pick published: Dec 14 11:37am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306616

Spread

Chicago St. +12.5 -110

Won: 65-66

Chicago St. at Murray St.

Tue Dec 13 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chicago State wins the game or loses by fewer than 13 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated spread model pick for Tuesday in college basketball.
  • Chicago State has played better in recent games after a lineup shift, and had one of the best wins in recent program history, for what has been a struggling program over the last several years, when they beat Southern Indiana by 17 as a 6-point underdog on December 4th.
  • Chicago State has covered 6 of the last 9 games, also including comfortable covers at Marquette and Marshall.
  • Murray State has failed to cover 3 of the last 4 games, despite opponents only shooting 29% from three-point range over that span.

Pick published: Dec 13 10:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 611

Over/Under

Georgia Tech at North Carolina Over 143.5 -110

Lost: 134 points

Sat Dec 10 • 3:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgia Tech and North Carolina combine for more than 143 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Georgia Tech is 2-6 on Overs so far, but the Overs have been in the last two games by a combined 38.5 points, while the two biggest Unders were in their first two D1 games.
  • There is also a lineup explanation for that, as Georgia Tech shifted their starting lineup four games ago, with Miles Kelly, Jalon Moore and Ja'Von Franklin starting each of the last four games.
  • Georgia Tech's four best offensive efficiency games have come in the last four, and it's not attributable to hot outside shooting, but rather increased offensive rebounding and interior shooting.
  • North Carolina has lost four straight games, and has shot only 23% from three-point range in those games (which were 2-2 Over/Under) so that's a potential positive regression factor for the Tar Heels.

Pick published: Dec 10 10:18am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 655

Spread

Georgetown +8.5 -110

Lost: 64-83

Georgetown at Syracuse

Sat Dec 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgetown wins the game or loses by fewer than 9 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Syracuse is 4-5 ATS, and those results are correlated with how good their opponents are or are not at offensive rebounding, going against the Syracuse zone. They are 3-0 ATS against teams in the bottom 50 of D1 at offensive rebounding rates, and 1-5 against everyone else.
  • Georgetown ranks 97th in offensive rebounding, and has a big front line that can get on the glass and block shots against the Orangemen.

Pick published: Dec 10 10:01am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 613

Spread

Yale +15.5 -105

Won: 59-69

Yale at Kentucky

Sat Dec 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Yale wins the game or loses by fewer than 16 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a lean to Yale but not a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick, but our predictive rating model shows value on Yale.
  • Yale is 6-2 ATS and has averaged covering the spread by 10 points this season. 
  • The two non-covers have been in the last two games, but can be entirely explained by three-point rates, as Yale has shot 28% and opponents 53% in the last two games from deep, and they did not miss covering by much.
  • So we see some value still that Yale could be better than expected and is providing some value.

Pick published: Dec 10 9:45am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 607

Spread

Oklahoma +4.5 -115

Lost: 78-88

Oklahoma vs. Arkansas

Sat Dec 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oklahoma wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not rated as a model playable pick but is a staff pick based on player news.
  • Arkansas' most athletic big man Trevon Brazile, who had scored 20+ points in two of their previous three games, tore his ACL in the first half of the last game against UNC-Greensboro and is now out for the season.
  • Oklahoma's Tanner Groves is one of the best interior scorers in basketball, and we are playing on the potential impact of the loss of Brazile in defending and shot blocking.

Pick published: Dec 10 9:30am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 610

Spread

Montana (Pick) -110

Won: 82-75

Montana at North Dakota St.

Sat Dec 10 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Montana wins the game on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick, and also a staff pick based on player trends.
  • Montana was a Staff Pick on Wednesday, and won by 25 as a 1.5-point favorite. 
  • Montana had multiple key players miss time in recent weeks, including point guard Brandon Whitney miss 2 games with a foot injury, and shooting guard Aanen Moody miss 3 games with the flu.
  • This article also talks about how several players on the team have been impacted by the flu in recent weeks.
  • Given how much better Montana played with a fully healthy lineup on Wednesday, there is some value that Montana could be better than their average rating.
  • North Dakota State is 2-8 with only one win against a D1 school, and starting center Grant Nelson has missd two games and is likely to miss this one as well recovering from an ankle injury.

Pick published: Dec 10 9:14am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 719

Spread

Minnesota +4.5 -110

Lost: 75-90

Michigan at Minnesota

Thu Dec 8 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a Staff Pick based on player news and trends.
  • This spread is exactly where we would expect it to be based just on our overall season power rating for both teams, but injury news impacts the value here.
  • Michigan just lost starting PG Jaelin Llewellyn for the season to a knee injury. Michigan will likely be starting a freshman at point guard, and ranks in the bottom 25 in all of D1 in bench minutes so far, so the depth is a question.
  • Michigan hasn't played great, but one area they have excelled is not turning the ball over, where they rank 1st in the nation in turnover rate so far, something that could be impacted by losing their starting PG.
  • Minnesota, meanwhile, has played relatively better since forward Jamison Battle has returned from an early injury. Their average Game Score is +2.0 in four games with him, and were -5.9 in the first four games without him playing.

Pick published: Dec 8 12:08pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 882

Spread

Iowa St. +4.0 -105

Lost: 56-75

Iowa St. at Iowa

Thu Dec 8 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for college basketball on Thursday.
  • After covering the first four games, Iowa is 1-3 ATS in the last four, with the one cover by 0.5 point.
  • Iowa struggled in the two games against the best offensive rebounding teams they have played, TCU and Duke, and Iowa State is also a top 50 offensive rebounding team.
  • Iowa State already has quality wins over North Carolina, Villanova and St. John's. 
  • The Cyclones' one poor performance and loss came against UConn, an elite defensive team and rim protection team, which is not Iowa's profile.

Pick published: Dec 8 12:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 875

Over/Under

Navy at West Virginia Under 134.5 -110

Lost: 149 points

Wed Dec 7 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Navy and West Virginia combine for fewer than 135 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Over/Under model play for Wednesday in college basketball.
  • Navy has gone Over in seven straight games, but we are playing against that streak for several reasons.
  • First, Navy is a slow-paced team, and the games have been getting Over at high offensive efficiency and shooting rates, as they are 8th nationally in 3-point % at 41%, and 16th in overall effective field goal rate.
  • Navy is making a major step up in defensive class in this game going against West Virginia, as they haven't played a single power conference team or top 150 team in defensive efficiency yet, and half the schedule has been against teams outside the top 300 in defensive stats. So they have been feasting on poor defenses.
  • West Virginia also has some regression potential in outside scoring, as they have hit 44% of three-pointers in the last three games (versus 34% in the first five, and 33% last season).

Pick published: Dec 7 11:09am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 306662

Spread

Arizona St. -5.0 -110

Won: 75-57

Arizona St. at Southern Methodist

Wed Dec 7 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona State wins the game by more than 5 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • It is also a Staff Pick because of our WOWY (With or Without You) roster analysis and team trends.
  • Arizona State's three worst games of the year, by Game Score, were in the first three games, two of which were started by Marcus Bagley, who has since been suspended and has now stepped away from the team.
  • In the past six games with the mostly current lineup (point guard Frankie Collins missed the Colorado game), Arizona State is 5-1 ATS with wins over VCU, Michigan, Colorado, and Stanford, and with an average Game Score of +16.9 (for perspective, Kentucky's power rating this year is 17.1 and Duke is at 16.7). 
  • Arizona State has four transfers now starting, so we should be a little more willing to move off our prior and consider that the current lineup could be much better than expected.
  • SMU, meanwhile, is 1-6-1 ATS and coming off a loss at home to Jackson State.
  • SMU is in the first year under head coach Rob Lanier, and two of their three best Game Scores so far came in the first two games, so they are trending in the opposite direction so far.

 

Pick published: Dec 7 10:45am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 709

Spread

Arkansas St. -2.0 -110

Lost: 67-72

Arkansas St. at Central Arkansas

Tue Dec 6 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arkansas State wins the game by more than 2 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • The biggest difference between these two is on the defensive end, at defending shots inside the arc, as Arkansas State is 9th in the country, limiting opponents to 41% shooting from two-point range, while Central Arkansas is 242nd (52% allowed).

Pick published: Dec 6 10:57am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306637

Spread

Montana -1.5 -105

Won: 81-56

South Dakota St. at Montana

Tue Dec 6 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Montana wins the game by more than 1 point on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but a staff pick based on player news and trends.
  • Montana has had multiple key players miss time in recent weeks, including point guard Brandon Whitney miss 2 games with a foot injury, and shooting guard Aanen Moody miss the last 3 games with the flu.
  • This article also talks about how several players on the team have been impacted by the flu in recent weeks.
  • Overnight, this line has shifted from South Daklota St. being favored to now Montana, likely due to positive info on the health and status of Montana starters.

Pick published: Dec 6 10:26am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 642

Over/Under

North Carolina at Virginia Tech Under 142.5 -105

Lost: 152 points

Sun Dec 4 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Carolina and Virginia Tech combine for fewer than 143 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under pick in college basketball on Sunday.
  • Virginia Tech's last four games are 3-0-1 to the Under, while North Carolina has been Under in regulation in the last three games against top competition (one went Over due to overtime).
  • Both of these teams do not turn the ball over much on offense and do not force turnovers at a high rate, which should produce a higher rate of half-court offense possessions.
  • North Carolina has struggled shooting so far this year, but has generated a high rate of offense from the free throw line (24% of points). However, Virginia Tech is one of the best in the nation at defending without fouling, and only 8% of opponent points against VT are coming from the line. 
  • Virginia Tech is in the top 20 in shooting inside the arc, but North Carolina has a big front line that can limit success there.

Pick published: Dec 3 7:28pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 762

Spread

Iowa St. -4.5 -110

Won: 71-60

St. John's at Iowa St.

Sun Dec 4 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State wins the game by more than 4 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is currently our highest-rated spread model pick for Sunday.
  • St. John's (8-0) is traveling outside of NYC for first time this year.
  • Iowa State is coming off a tournament in Portland, OR where they beat Villanova and North Carolina before losing to UConn.
  • Iowa State's Osun Osunniyi (transfer from St. Bonaventure) is a good matchup going against St. John's center Joel Soriano, who has dominated opponents inside early in the year.
  • Iowa State tends to force opponents to shoot a high rate from outside, something St. John's has not done, or done as well, so far this year.
  • Iowa State is 2nd in the nation in defensive turnover rate, and is easily the best defensive team St. John's has faced so far this season.

Pick published: Dec 3 7:08pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 758

Spread

Florida Atlantic -9.5 -110

Won: 101-73

Florida Atlantic at Eastern Michigan

Sun Dec 4 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida Atlantic wins the game by more than 9 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick.
  • Florida Atlantic has won and covered in five straight since a road loss at Ole Miss, including a win at Florida and four double-digit victories.
  • Eastern Michigan, after a close loss at Michigan earlier this year, lost five straight games before winning at Florida International on Wednesday, in a game where FIU went 1-15 from three and 11-24 from the FT line. 
  • This is a major mismatch in defensive efficiency, as Eastern Michigan is 360th in FG% allowed on two-point shots (61%) while Florida Atlantic is 19th (42%).

Pick published: Dec 3 6:44pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 755

Spread

Yale -14.5 -110

Lost: 77-72

Yale at Stony Brook

Sat Dec 3 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Yale wins by more than 14 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our models.
  • In addition, this Yale team has played much better than expected all year while Stony Brook has played worse, so it's possible these two teams were mispriced by preseason expectations.
  • Yale is a perfect 6-0 ATS and has covered two of the last three games by 28 or more points.
  • Yale has also posted a better Game Score in every single game than our preseason power rating for them, suggesting that this is not a fluke. 
  • Stony Brook is 1-5 ATS and has failed to cover the last two games against D1 opponents by more than 20 points, losing by 33 and 29 as a single-digit underdog in both.
  • Yale has three wins so far by 29 or more points, and Stony Brook is the lowest rated D1 opponent Yale has faced other than Mississippi Valley State (who they beat 80-51).

Pick published: Dec 2 6:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 691

Spread

Texas Christian -6.5 -110

Won: 75-62

Providence at Texas Christian

Wed Nov 30 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: TCU wins the game by more than 6 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model plck, but is a staff pick based on player participation news and team trends.
  • TCU has had six different starting lineups because of suspension and injuries in six games, but has played better in their last three after a terrible start, with the last game being a double-digit win over Iowa.
  • TCU guard Damion Baugh was suspended by the NCAA for six games for signing with an agent, and Baugh, who led the team in assists a year ago, is eligible to play tonight for the first time this year.
  • Providence is 2-5 ATS so far this year, and our predictive rating model, despite TCU's early performance, has TCU as having value at this line, even before considering Baugh's impact on return.

Pick published: Nov 30 12:04pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 690

Spread

Western Michigan +18.0 -115

Lost: 47-67

Western Michigan at Dayton

Wed Nov 30 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Western Michigan wins the game or loses by fewer than 18 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick with estimated 54.6% cover odds according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Dayton is coming off a rough Battle 4 Atlantis tournament appearance where they went 0-3.
  • Dayton also could be short-handed after a couple of injuries to starters, as point guard Kobe Elvis left the last loss to BYU with what looked like a knee injury and guard Malachi Smith suffered an ankle injury.

Pick published: Nov 30 11:15am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 649

Over/Under

North Carolina at Indiana Under 145.5 -110

Won: 142 points

Wed Nov 30 • 9:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Carolina and Indiana combine for fewer than 146 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model pick for Wednesday in college basketball.
  • North Carolina is 3-4 against Overs so far, and the last game against Alabama only went Over (and had 204 combined points) because it went to overtime (four total).
  • Indiana has an effective field goal percentage of 62% so far this year, and while they are good on offense, that is an area of regression opportunity.
  • Every Indiana opponent so far has ranked outside the top 150 in turnover rate (which can create easier scoring opportunities) while UNC is in the top 50 in avoiding turnovers.
  • Indiana is one of the slowest-paced defensive teams that UNC has faced (i.e., they force longer possessions), most similar to two other games that went Under, in terms of average possession length against.

Pick published: Nov 30 10:59am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 720

Over/Under

Furman at Appalachian St. Under 142.5 -105

Won: 126 points

Tue Nov 29 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Furman and Appalachian State combine for fewer than 143 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated playable Over/Under model picks for Tuesday.
  • Furman ranks in the top 20 in effective field goal percentage and bottom 20 in opponent effective field goal percentage, providing some regression potential for scoring even though they are an offensively-skewed team. The early returns are even more extreme than last year and the lineup is virtually similar.
  • The last three App State games have gone Over, but the two Unders this year have come against the two best defensive opponents, who rate more similarly overall to Furman (despite the opponent shooting rate, Furman rates better on defense because of defensive rebounding and turnovers).
  • Furman is the best shot blocking team that App State has faced this year.

Pick published: Nov 29 11:49am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 602

Spread

Brown -4.5 -108

Won: 59-51

Brown at Central Conn. St.

Tue Nov 29 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Brown wins the game by more than 4 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated spread model pick for Tuesday in college basketball.
  • Brown is 2-0 as a favorite ATS and 0-4 as an underdog, with their two covers coming against the two weakest teams on their schedule. Central Connecticut (0-7) is rated No. 347 in our power ratings and similar to Stony Brook among Brown's opponents to date.
  • Brown is next-to-last in FT% so far in Division 1 at 53%, an area of positive regression for scoring.
  • Brown is also in the bottom 30 in defensive field goal percentage allowed, and is undersized, but will have the size advantage in this game, and has played opponents who are much better at shooting than Central Connecticut.

Pick published: Nov 29 11:19am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306633

Spread

Minnesota +11.5 -105

Won: 57-67

Minnesota at Virginia Tech

Mon Nov 28 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota wins the game or loses by fewer than 12 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean to Minnesota but not a playable pick according to our models, but is a pick based on player participation and team trends.
  • Two of Minnesota's top 6 players, freshman guard Braeden Carrington and junior forward Jamison Battle (who led the team in minutes a year ago) were injured to start the year, and have both been in the lineup the last two games only.
  • Minnesota is currently bottom 20 in minutes continuity from last year because of that injury to Battle and the roster turnover, but should be better than they have played so far based on having a better lineup now.
  • Virginia Tech has failed to cover in five straight games, including winning by only 5 points as a 26-point favorite against Charleston Southern in their last game.
  • Minnesota's relative weaknesses so far have been turning the ball over on offense and defensive rebounding, but Virginia Tech does not play a high pressure defense or tend to attack the offensive glass, and plays at a slower tempo.

Pick published: Nov 28 12:55pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 801

Over/Under

Bellarmine at UCLA Under 136.5 -110

Lost: 141 points

Sun Nov 27 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bellarmine and UCLA combine for fewer than 137 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable Over/Under on Sunday in college basketball with 58% estimated cover odds.
  • Bellarmine is in the bottom 10 in overall pace, and offensive pace so far this year, and going against UCLA's defense we expect this to be a low-paced game.
  • Bellarmine rates poorly at offensive rebounding, so they will likely not get easy second-chance points against UCLA.
  • One of Bellarmine's few strengths is they do not turn the ball over at a high rate.
  • Both Bellarmine and their opponents have shot 80% from the free throw line, another potential regression area that provides Under value.

Pick published: Nov 27 10:49am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306602

Over/Under

North Texas vs. San Jose St. Under 118.5 -110

Lost: 123 points

Fri Nov 25 • 5:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Texas and San Jose State combine for fewer than 119 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is the top playable Over/Under in college basketball for Friday according to our models.
  • North Texas is the second-slowest paced team in Division 1, and San Jose State is in the bottom 30.
  • North Texas games against St. Mary's and Fresno State have combined for 96 and 113 points, respectively.
  • North Texas is struggling at getting easy points in the paint, as they rank near the bottom in two-point attempts and dead last at two-point shooting percentage so far.
  • San Jose State ranks 3rd-slowest in offensive possession time.
  • San Jose State ranks 5th-best in two-point defense this year, and opponents have shot 83% from the FT line, a likely scoring regression candidate.

Pick published: Nov 25 11:16am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 892

Spread

Tennessee -1.5 -110

Won: 64-50

Tennessee vs. Kansas

Fri Nov 25 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tennessee wins by more than 1 point against Kansas.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable pick according to our Ensemble Forecast Model (52.6%) and our Predictive Power Ratings have Tennessee at 61.5%.
  • We were below market on Kansas to start the year, and they have dropped in our rankings down to No. 24 from No. 10, and are 1-5 ATS so far.
  • Tennessee had one bad loss against Colorado early in the year but have otherwise exceeded expectations or performed to expectations, and are No. 6 in our predictive ratings.

Pick published: Nov 25 10:54am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 899

Over/Under

Coastal Carolina at Missouri Under 152.5 -112

Won: 140 points

Wed Nov 23 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Coastal Carolina and Missouri combine for fewer than 153 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under play for Wednesday.
  • Missouri is off to a solid start with new coach Dennis Gates, and are currently top 10 in effective field goal percentage, but that provides an area for some offensive regression, particularly since they have opened with an easy schedule and Coastal Carolina is ranked better than most of their previous opponents.
  • Coastal Carolina has played only one D1 game, but their opponent shot 50% from three in that game.

Pick published: Nov 23 10:35am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 700

Spread

South Dakota -14.5 -108

Lost: 68-58

LIU vs. South Dakota

Tue Nov 22 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: South Dakota wins by more than 14 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on player participation and early team trends.
  • Long Island looks like one of the worst Division 1 teams this year, in coach Rod Strickland's first year in charge of the program.
  • LIU started at No. 301 in our preseason rankings but are already down to No. 336 and have lost thier first two D1 games by 37 to Marquette and 39 to Utah.
  • Starting point guard Tre Wood, the only returning starter for the program from last year's squad, missed the last game against Marquette for undisclosed reasons.
  • LIU ranks near the bottom of D1 in virtually every offensive and defensive category and without Wood are one of the least experienced teams, and bear no resemblance to last year's squad with a different coach that finished 16-14.

Pick published: Nov 22 9:02am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 648

Spread

Kansas St. -11.5 -110

Won: 77-57

Rhode Island vs. Kansas St.

Mon Nov 21 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas State wins by more than 11 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated spread picks for college basketball today.
  • Both of these teams have first-year head coaches taking over the programs (Jerome Tang at Kansas State and Archie Miller at Rhode Island) making us a little more willing to consider early returns versus prior expectations.
  • Kansas State was No. 76 in our preseason rating but is up to No. 63 after their 3-0 start, while Rhode Island was No. 153 in the preseason but is down to No. 205 after a rough 1-2 start.
  • Kansas State is second in the nation in turnovers forced, at nearly 33% of possessions, led by guard Markquis Nowell.
  • Turnovers have been a major negative factor for Rhode Island, as they are 331st in turnover rate after three games.
  • Rhode Island was without guard Jalen Carey in the last game because of injuries, and transfer guard Brayon Freeman sat as a coaching decision, and this URI team is very young, going against Kansas State's high pressure defense.

Pick published: Nov 21 11:05am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 778

Over/Under

Texas Tech vs. Creighton Under 136.5 -105

Lost: 141 points

Mon Nov 21 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas Tech and Creighton combine for fewer than 137 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model Over/Unders for today in college basketball.
  • This game is part of the Maui Classic, played at the Lahaina Civic Center, where games are being played for the first time in three years. A review of past opening game totals shows no trend toward Overs or Unders that should impact this play based on the venue.
  • Texas Tech is again one of the best defensive teams in the nation, ranking highly in opponent field goal percentage and blocked shots, and they allowed 52.7 points iin their first 3 games.
  • Creighton is one of the top teams in the country at limiting opponent second-chance points thanks to center Ryan Kalkbrenner, and is also very good at not turning the ball over, factors that can impact easy scores.
  • Both teams rate highly in defending but not fouling, as opponents have shot very few free throws this year.

Pick published: Nov 21 10:49am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 792

Over/Under

Penn St. vs. Colorado St. Under 135.5 -105

Won: 124 points

Sun Nov 20 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Penn State and Colorado combine for fewer than 136 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model Over/Under picks today in college basketball.
  • Both of these teams rate in the top twenty in effective field goal percentage right now, with values that would have placed hem 1st (Penn State) or 2nd (Colorado State) nationally last season.
  • Both of these teams rate in the top fifty in three point field goal percentage right now, with Penn State shooting a rate that that would have placed them 1st nationally last season.
  • These unsustainable hot shooting starts will lead score-based models to overrate the offenses.
  • We played the Under on both these teams' last games, with Penn State barely going under after another hot shooting start, and Colorad State going under by 18 points.

Pick published: Nov 20 11:44am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 702

Over/Under

Colorado St. at Charleston Under 156.0 -110

Won: 138 points

Fri Nov 18 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado State and Charleston combine for fewer than 156 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Under for Friday in college basketball.
  • Charleston is one of the faster-paced teams in D1 so far, explaining the higher total, but there are a few regression factors to play against in this game despite that pace.
  • Charleston has rebounded a high percentage of their own misses for put backs, something that Colorado State is relatively good at preventing.
  • Charleston ranks in the bottom 50 of Division 1 so far in two-point shooting percentage against.
  • Colorado State is 7th overall in effective field goal percentage on offense, another area of regression that could impact scoring.

Pick published: Nov 18 2:28pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 864

Over/Under

Virginia vs. Baylor Under 131.0 -110

Lost: 165 points

Fri Nov 18 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Virginia and Baylor combine for fewer than 131 points.

Staff notes:

  • This game is being played on a neutral court in Las Vegas, Nevada.
  • This is our top-rated model play for today in college basketball.
  • Both of these teams rank near the top of Division 1 so far in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and this is a major step up in class for both in terms of opponent defense.
  • Virginia is the slowest-paced team in the country so far, consistent with their program history under Tony Bennett.
  • Virginia has hit 48% of three-point shots so far, an area of regression potential against Baylor.
  • Baylor is shooting 66% from two-point range so far, and has not faced teams with an interior presence, but goes against a Virginia team that ranks highly in blocked shots and defending the paint.

Pick published: Nov 18 2:04pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 883

Over/Under

Furman vs. Penn St. Under 143.5 -110

Won: 141 points

Thu Nov 17 • 11:30am ET

More info

How it wins: Furman and Penn State combine for fewer than 144 points.

Staff notes:

  • These two teams play in the quarterfinal of the Charleston Classic today, in Charleston, South Carolina.
  • This is our top-rated playable Over/Under for today in college basketball.
  • Both of these teams rate in the top five in effective field goal percentage right now, after one Division 1 game for Furman and three for Penn State.
  • They also both play at below-average pace, with Penn State in the bottom 40 of all Division 1 teams, so any regression in their shooting provides value against this number.

Pick published: Nov 17 10:02am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 762

Over/Under

Southern Indiana at Notre Dame Under 150.5 -110

Lost: 152 points

Wed Nov 16 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Southern Indiana and Notre Dame combine for fewer than 151 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated over/under play for Wednesday in college basketball.
  • Both of these teams are currently top 25 in effective field goal percentage early in the season, and while they are good shooting teams, are outperforming expectation and we expect regression.
  • Notre Dame is at 43% from three-point range so far while Southern Indiana, a new D1 team, is at 46%.
  • This is a pace contrast, as Southern Indiana is top 50 so far in pace and Notre Dame is bottom 50. Southern Indiana tends to push it and turns the ball over on offense (which creates scoring chances against them as well) but Notre Dame has historically ranked near the bottom of D1 in forcing turnovers, and playing at pace.

Pick published: Nov 16 10:40am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 694

Over/Under

Gonzaga at Texas Over 143.5 -110

Won: 167 points

Wed Nov 16 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Gonzaga and Texas combine for at least 144 points.

Staff notes:

Pick published: Nov 16 10:16am ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 701

Over/Under

Duke vs. Kansas Under 144.5 -110

Won: 133 points

Tue Nov 15 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Duke and Kansas combine for fewer than 145 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable over/under pick on tonight's big matchup between Duke and Kansas.
  • Through the first two games in the Jon Scheyer era, Duke's defense ranks in the top 30 in opponent length of possession, indicating that opponents have to really work deeper into the shot clock to generate shots.
  • Duke has held the first two opponents to a combined 82 points, and the last Duke team to hold an opponent under 45 points (which they have now done twice) was in 2018.
  • Duke has great size along the front line and is dominating boards, with 7-foot freshman Kyle Filipowski, freshman Kyle Mitchell, and transfer Ryan Young.
  • Kansas also ranks highly in defensive efficiency through two games, and also is a good rebounding team, so these two could neutralize each other and make for fewer easy baskets.

Pick published: Nov 15 11:06am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 655

Over/Under

Fairfield at Xavier Under 139.5 -110

Lost: 143 points

Tue Nov 15 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Fairfield and Xavier combine for fewer than 140 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is the highest rated Over/Under play of the day in college basketball and has 59.6% projected cover odds.
  • Xavier is shooting 46.4% from three-point range after two games, and is 12th in the nation in effective field goal percentage (62.9%) providng some regression potential and value on lower scoring.
  • Fairfield has allowed opponents to hit 41.3% from deep in their first two games, also a regression candidate.

Pick published: Nov 15 10:45am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 654

Over/Under

Portland at Kent St. Under 151.0 -115

Won: 142 points

Mon Nov 14 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The teams combine to score fewer than 151 points.

Staff notes:

  • The is one of our top model over/under plays for Monday.
  • Both teams have had unsustainable hot three-point shooting to start the season, with Kent State connecting on 54% of their threes so far.
  • This will be the best opponent either team has faced this season, which could slow down the offenses.

Pick published: Nov 14 1:05am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 860

Spread

Evansville +24.5 -110

Won: 65-83

Evansville at Saint Louis

Sat Nov 12 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Evansville beats Saint Louis, or loses by fewer than 26 points.

Staff notes:

  • Evansville is a model lean for Saturday.
  • Evansville +26 is also strongly favored by our predictive ratings, which have historically performed well very early in the season.
  • Our preseason ratings would have also strongly favored Evansville at this line, so the play isn't an overreaction to a single game result.
  • Both Evansville and Saint Louis covered by about 10 points in their first games. Both had about average luck in terms of 3PFG% and FT% for themselves and their opponents.
  • Evansville had a very disappointing season last year, finishing nearly 100 spots lower in our final rankings than in our preseason rankings. Their two highest usage players last season both graduated, and there was relatively high uncertainty about how good they'd be this year. With this backdrop, pulling an upset in game 1 matters relatively more than it would for other teams, and may indicate Evansville has high upside potential.

Pick published: Nov 12 2:48am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 757

Spread

Albany +4.5 -110

Lost: 62-75

Albany at Siena

Sat Nov 12 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Albany beats Siena, or loses by fewer than 5 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model spread play for Saturday. Spread picks at this confidence level have covered 55% of the time over the past four seasons.
  • Our predictive ratings also give a slight edge to Albany at this line.
  • Siena benefited in their first game from their opponent, Holy Cross, shooting only 10/23 (44%) on free throws and 2/10 (20%) on three, while Siena shot 7/17 (41%) on threes. Aside from unsustainable shooting edges, Siena played our current 352nd ranked team basically even, in a home game.
  • In Albany's first game, they lost by only five points at our current 93rd ranked team, Towson, without much of a shooting luck edge. Their biggest edge was in rebounding, led by freshman Jonatahan Beagle's five offensive rebounds.

Pick published: Nov 11 9:40pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 306591

Over/Under

Michigan St. vs. Gonzaga Under 142.5 -110

Won: 127 points

Fri Nov 11 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Michigan State and Gonzaga combine for fewer than 143 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for Friday.
  • In addtiion, this game is being played on an aircraft carrier in San Diego, CA.
  • While no games have been played on an aircraft carrier since 2012, the two men's games that were played went significantly under, by an average of 15.8 points compared to the closing totals.
  • Michigan St-UNC (2011) combined to go 6-of-32 from three, and Syracuse-San Diego State (2012) combined to go 2-of-22.
  • It's not unreasonable to think that a game played outdoors in unusual conditions could impact shooting sight lines and performance, and those poor shooting numbers in the past games is a real effect.
  • This game opened at 156, immediately dropped to 148 when it went live after-hours last night, and has continued to drop. 
  • Despite that big line movement, we think there is still some value here for this extreme one-off circumstance, as those past two carrier games came in 21 and 23 points under the Ken Pomeroy projections, and his projection for this one is 156 points.

Pick published: Nov 11 11:45am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 640

Spread

Old Dominion -2.5 -110

Lost: 59-71

Old Dominion at Drexel

Fri Nov 11 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Old Dominion wins the game by more than 2 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model spread pick for Friday night in college basketball.
  • This line has already moved from PK at opening to 2.5 points.
  • Old Dominion won and covered their first game, a 19-point win over Maryland-Eastern Shore as an 11-point favorite.
  • ODU did that despite losing three-point scoring by -15 points, because they dominated in the paint and on the glass, nearly doubling up UMES in rebounds. 
  • This will be Drexel's season opener.
  • Drexel lost three of their top four players from a year ago, including four-time team MVP and three-time all-CAA point guard Camren Wynter, who transferred to Penn State for his fifth year of eligibility. 

Pick published: Nov 11 11:07am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, Superbook.

Rot# 663

Over/Under

Duquesne at Kentucky Under 143.5 -110

Won: 129 points

Fri Nov 11 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Duquesne and Kentucky combine for fewer than 144 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model over/under pick for Friday night in college basketball.
  • Both these teams won in blowouts on opening night, thanks to extreme shooting performances.
  • Duquesne had an effective field goal percentage of 72.9% in the opener against Montana, going 10-of-24 from three-point range and 28-of-35 inside the arc.
  • Duquesne was bottom 20 in effective field goal percentage last year, and completely turned over the starting roster with transfers and new starters, so some of the improvement could be real, but there's no way that reflects their true shooting ability against Kentucky.
  • Kentucky, meanwhile, shot 46% from three and 61% from two in its opener, also ranking in the top 20 in effective field goal percentage so far.

Pick published: Nov 11 9:56am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 676

Spread

Xavier -17.5 -110

Won: 86-64

Montana at Xavier

Fri Nov 11 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Xavier beats Montana by at least 18 points.

Staff notes:

Pick published: Nov 11 3:04am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars.

Rot# 694

Spread

Northwestern -16.5 -110

Won: 63-46

Northern Illinois at Northwestern

Fri Nov 11 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Northwestern beats Northern Illinois by at least 17 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a predictive model lean for Friday.
  • Our predictive ratings also show value on Northwestern here. We already would have had a slight lean toward Northwestern at this line using our preseason ratings. Then Northwestern covered -23.5 against Chicago State comfortably, while Northern Illinois lost at home to Illinois-Springfield, a Division II team, widening the gap.
  • With Chris Collins as head coach, Northwestern is 28-16 (64%) against the spread as a double digit home favorite in non-conference games (i.e. in cupcake games). They're 8-2 ATS in cupcake games against in-state opponents.

Pick published: Nov 11 2:41am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 686

Spread

North Dakota +30.5 -105

Lost: 61-96

North Dakota at Creighton

Thu Nov 10 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Dakota wins the game or loses by fewer than 31 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday.
  • Our predictive ratings also show value on North Dakota here, as our ratings were already lower than the pulbic and the polls on Creighton, and then they won by only 12 in their opener against St. Thomas (as a 28-point favorite) in a game where they trailed with just over 10 minutes remaining.
  • North Dakota won outright at Incarnate Word by 8 points (as a 2-point favorite) in their opener.

Pick published: Nov 10 12:07pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 619

Spread

Appalachian St. -5.0 -110

Push: 79-74

North Carolina Central at Appalachian St.

Thu Nov 10 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Appalachian State wins by more than 4 points.

Staff notes:

  • Our predictive power ratingsl has this spread at 7.6 between the two teams on a neutral field, and adding in 3 points for home court, would expect Appalachian State by 10.6.
  • Appalachian State beat Division III Warren Wilson by 68 points on Monday, while North Carolina Central lost by 12 at Virginia as a 24-point dog.
  • NC Central shot better from 3 (42%) than from 2 (41%) in the game against Virginia, and were a poor 3-point shooting team a year ago (31%), so we expect a little regression in their outside shooting..

Pick published: Nov 10 11:13am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306642

Spread

Massachusetts Lowell -8.0 -110

Won: 89-62

Massachusetts Lowell at Columbia

Thu Nov 10 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Massachusetts Lowell wins the game by more than 7 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated playable spread pick for Thursday, November 10.
  • Columbia is No. 357 in our predictive power ratings out of 363 teams.
  • Columbia lost the season opener 75-35 to Rutgers and is starting three freshmen in their lineup after finishing last year at 4-22.
  • UMass Lowell returns 4 of 5 starters, and the one new starter is Abdoul Karim Coulibaly, a transfer post player that previously played at Pitt/St. Bonaventure and gives them more size inside than last year.
  • Our predictive power ratings have UMass-Lowell at about 2.7 points better than last year based on the returning starters, and has them 13.3 points better tha