College Football Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top playable Over/Under model picks for the bowl games. 
• So far this year, Over/Under picks rated at 55% or higher in our Ensemble Forecast Model are 35-18.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the bowl games.
• We also wrote about big line moves in 2021 in bowl games, and how even jumping on line moves as they happened was profitable. In games where the lines moved 2+ points from opening to close, the performance of betting the move by a week out covered 56% of the time, and against the closing number 54% of the time. (and in that year, and last year, the big line moves covered as well). 
• We get these big line moves often now because of news on who is transferring before the bowl game, or is opting out.
• In this case, Ohio State's starting QB Kyle McCord has entered the transfer portal, and several star players for Ohio State are expected to opt out and prepare for the NFL Draft, including WR Marvin Harrison, Jr.
• The line opened at Ohio State by 7, closer to the full season power rating numbers you would expect, but has quickly already jumped to Missouri being favored, as they have a motivation edge in this one and are playing an Ohio State team that could be very different from the regular season.
• We can still get this line before it crosses a key number at 3, and we expect this line could continue to move as official confirmation of opt outs comes in for Ohio State.

Staff notes:

• This is a model spread pick for the Pinstripe Bowl.
• This game has changed from Miami being favored at opening to now Rutgers being favored, and we want to grab it before it cross the key number of 3.
• Rutgers has the major climate advantage being from the New York City area, going against a Miami football team playing in wet, rainy conditions in the low 50's today at Yankees Stadium.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model over/under in the Pinstripe Bowl.
• The Pinstripe Bowl is one of the coldest weather venue bowls, and as we noted back in 2021, bowl games played at the coldest weather venues have gone Over 64% of the time. So far this year in such games, Overs are 2-1 (Over in Military Bowl and Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Under in New Mexico Bowl).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the bowls.
• This line has also started to move up, and this particular line at FanDuel is lower than the -12.5 commonly being found elsewhere.
• From our 2021 Bowl Trends article, teams that covered 75%+ of their games in the regular season covered only 42% of bowl games from 2011 to 2020, so this is also a fade against a team that overachieved expectations all year. UNLV went 9-3 ATS but did fail to cover in the last two games, both losses.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the bowl games.
• Northwestern overcame a lot of adversity early in the year after firing head coach Pat Fitzgerald before the season began, but closed by covering 6 straight and winning the last 3 outright to make a bowl game. 
• Utah closed a somewhat disappointing year after a 6-1 start, by losing 3 of 5, including failing to cover the last two games by double digits.
• Model factors include Utah's poor passing numbers as the favorite, and Northwestern's low percentage of points in the fourth quarter in their recent run.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the bowl games.
• Syracuse has 11 players, including several defensive starters that have entered the transfer portal since the end of the season.
• Some of the model factors include Syracuse's poor INT rate despite throwing at a low rate, and South Florida's relative defensive weakness being against the pass, where the were 2nd-to-last in yards allowed through the air, something that favorite Syracuse is not good at (124th in nation in passing yards on offense).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for CFB.
• In games involving the service academies (Army/Air Force/Navy), since 2010 the game has gone Under the total in 35 of 41 games.
• In this specific series between Army and Navy, the last year was the only game to go Over since 2010, and that was only because it went to 2 OTs (it was 10-10 at end of regulation).
• These three service academy schools all run the triple-option offense, and are among the few that do it, so when they play other teams it is an offense that is rarely seen or practiced against, but it is something that their own defenses practice against all the time, reducing the uniqueness edge of the triple option attack.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick, and also rated at over 60% in our similar games model.
• The spread in this game is about eight points lower than it would have been based on the full season power ratings, but undefeated Florida State is without QB Jordan Travis, who suffered a season-ending injury.
• However, Florida also lost their starting quarterback, Graham Mertz, in the last game as well.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top playable Over/Under model picks for Week 13 in CFB. 
• So far this year, Over/Under picks rated at 55% or higher in our Ensemble Forecast Model are 33-16.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top playable Over/Under model picks for Week 13 in CFB. 
• So far this year, Over/Under picks rated at 55% or higher in our Ensemble Forecast Model are 33-16.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest rated model Over/Under pick for CFB Week 12.
• So far this year, Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher are 29-15.
• Staff Picks on CFB Over/Unders are 17-9 this season.
• Both of these teams have been Over teams for most of the year (a combined 14-5-1 on Overs) but have gone Under 3 of the last 6 combined games (with a push) and this is the highest total for Boise all year (first time over 60) and tied for the largest total for Utah State.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our highest rated Over/Under model picks for CFB Week 12.
• So far this year, Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher are 29-15.
• Staff Picks on CFB Over/Unders are 17-9 this season.
• Some model factors are related to the UMass defense versus Liberty offense, as UMass is last in FBS in rush yards per attempt allowed while Liberty is among the leaders in rush yards per carry, and UMass also ranks poorly in yards per pass allowed.
• Liberty's defense ranks highly in points per play recently, but there is also room for regression on that side of the ball.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our highest rated Over/Unders for Week 12 in CFB.
• So far this year, Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher are 29-15.
• Staff Picks on CFB Over/Unders are 17-9 this season.
• BYU's offense has struggled in recent games, scoring 26 points in the last three Big 12 games, and Oklahoma could look to limit mistakes as a big favorite going against an opponent who has been struggling to sustain drives. 

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated Over/Under picks for CFB in Week 11.
• So far this year, playable Over/Unders rated 55% or higher are 26-12 (68.4%).
• USC has gone Over 9 of 10 games this year, pushing this high total.
• USC and Oregon both rate highly in yards per point on offense, and USC ranks near the bottom in yards allowed per point on defense, meaning they score more points than expected based on yards, and give up more as well.
• Despite USC's over run, we'll play this high total Under. Over the last five years, totals of 75 or higher have gone Under 17 of 29 times (58.6%).

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated Over/Under picks for CFB in Week 11.
• So far this year, playable Over/Unders rated 55% or higher are 26-12 (68.4%).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Week 10 in college football.
• Oklahoma State is a completely different team than early in the year on offense, and has rolled in recent games, averaging 514 yards per game during their four-game win streak.
• That shift has come with more stability at QB with Alan Bowman (three different QBs played in the first three games) and with the emergence of sophomore RB Ollie Gordon II, who had only 19 rush attempts in the first three games, but is now the second-leading rusher in the nation after having over 550 yards and scoring 6 TDs in the last two weeks.
• Oklahoma State has covered all of their last four games by double-digits since Gordon's emergence, winning three as a betting underdog. Oklahoma is going the other way, failing to cover each of the last two by double digits, and losing outright at Kansas, after starting the year 6-0 ATS.

Staff notes:

• This is a top-rated model Over/Under for Week 10 in college football.
• So far this year, Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher have covered 65% of the time (22-12)
• Arkansas State's has high points allowed, but that is heavily influenced by given up 110 points in the first two games to Oklahoma and Memphis, and they have averaged 26.7 points allowed over last six while going 4-2.
• Louisiana has gone Under in each of the last three games, after starting the year 4-1 on Overs.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated Over/Under pick for Week 10 in CFB.
• In games involving the service academies (Army/Air Force/Navy), since 2010 the game has gone Under the total in 34 of 40 games.
• In this specific series between Army and Air Force, the last game to go Over the total was in 2013, and the average points in the last nine matchups is 27.7.
• These three service academy schools all run the triple-option offense, and are among the few that do it, so when they play other teams it is an offense that is rarely seen or practiced against, but it is something that their own defenses practice against all the time, reducing the uniqueness edge of the triple option attack.

Staff notes:

• This is a top-rated model Over/Under for Week 10 in college football.
• So far this year, Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher have covered 65% of the time (22-12)
• Mississippi's low opponent points per play (but high number of plays against) and A&M's low opponent total plays per game (and lack of early scoring against A&M) are regression factors.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated Over/Under model plays for Week 9 in CFB.
• Playable Over/Unders rated above 55% are 20-11 so far this year.
• Oregon State has gone Over in 5 of 7, but Arizona has gone Under in 6 of 7 this year, and a lot of the model factors in this one are related to Arizona at this total.
• Arizona has high points per play, first downs per play, and a really high third down conversion rate, so there's room for regression downward in Arizona's scoring, despite their games going Under (because of their defense). 
• Arizona's rush defense is allowing 99 yards a game, and Arizona ranks 14th nationally in fewest opponent plays per game (63.3).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Ensemble Forecast Model pick and also rated above 60% in our Similar Games Model.
• So far this year, Similar Games model picks above that cutoff have gone 47-30-2 ATS, and are 106-79-3 over the last two seasons. 
• Some of the model factors here involve some of San Jose State's weaknesses (high YPC allowed, high third down conversion rate allowed) combined with Hawaii's poor performance on offense in those categories, where the Rainbow Warriors are 132nd (out of 133) in FBS in rush yards per carry.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our highest-rated Over/Under model plays for Week 9 in CFB.
• In games with a total above 62, the Under is 24-15 (61.5%) so far this year.
• Playable Over/Unders rated above 55% are 20-11 so far this year.
• Some of the model factors in this one are related to expected regression with the high total, and include Vanderbilt's high completion percentage allowed, third down conversions allowed, and high opponent plays per game; Ole Miss' high yards per pass, and Ole Miss having a high percentage of their scoring after halftime, but Vanderbilt being a poor team at scoring after halftime.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated Over/Under pick for Week 8 in CFB.
• In games involving the service academies (Army/Air Force/Navy), since 2010 the game has gone Under the total in 33 of 39 games.
• These three schools all run the triple-option offense, and are among the few that do it, so when they play other teams it is an offense that is rarely seen or practiced against, but it is something that their own defenses practice against all the time.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick for Week 7 according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
• Further, it is rated over 60% by our Similar Games Model.
• So far this year, picks rated over 60% by our Similar Games Model are 35-19-2 ATS. Since 2021, underdogs rated over 60% by Similar Games are 89-71 ATS.
• Michigan State has lost three straight after firing head coach Mel Tucker and replacing him with interim coach Harlon Barnett. The team is also likely to make a QB switch after getting a bye week to get healthy, as starter Noah Kim had thrown 6 interceptions in the last three games. While Barnett won't name a starter, it's believed that the team will start Katin Houser.
• Michigan State is 130th (out of 133 teams) in our yards per point metric, and the turnovers with Kim at QB have been a big reason why they have underperformed in scoring.

Staff notes:

• This is our second-highest rated playable Under for Week 6 in CFB.
• Shop for your best line, but playable at 59.5
• So far this year, Unders rated as playable at 55% or higher are 10-3, and Staff Pick Unders for CFB are 8-2, with the two losses coming in overtime and by 0.5 point.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated spread pick for CFB in Week 5.
• Oklahoma has jumped to No. 1 in our power ratings, and is top 5 in yards per game and leads the nation with a 79% completion percentage.
• Model factors include Oklahoma's high completion percentage and yards per play, and Iowa State's low percentage of first downs by rushing, low rushing yards per game (66) and low overall yards per game for the season.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick and also rated as playable by our Similar Games Model at 59%.
• Some of the model factors in this game are USC's low rate of picking up first downs by rush, their relatively poor rush defense by yards per carry (5.0), and Colorado's low rate of throwing interceptions.
• This is also a 10 a.m. local kickoff time in Boulder (9 a.m. PT) and though this is not a model factor could be a subtle uncertainty factor for the underdog. Every USC game the last two years, besides last year's Cotton Bowl loss to Tulane, kicked off at 3 p.m. PT or later, and the last time the program played a game this early was the November season opener against Arizona State (won by 1 point as 11.5-point favorite).

Staff notes:

• This is our second-highest rated Under in CFB this week.
• Staff Pick Unders in CFB are 7-1 so far this year. 
• Model factors for this game include both teams' high takeaways per game in recent games, Tulane's low opponent yards per game allowed so far this year (277), and UAB's high opponent completion rate allowed.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated model spread pick for this week in CFB.
• Kent State has really struggled on offense in two games against FBS teams Central Florida and Arkansas, managing only 6 points in both games. The quarterback was sacked on nearly 20% of dropbacks in those two games.
• Fresno State is coming off a dominant defensive performance, shutting out Arizona State on the road and recording five interceptions, and rank among the national leaders in rush defense.
• Our models also like the combo of Fresno State's passing efficiency and high completion rate going against the Kent State defense, which allowed over 700 yards of offense and around 9 yards per play against Central Florida.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Under according to our Ensemble Forecast model and currently our second-highest rated Under for this weekend in CFB.
• The top-rated playable model Unders are 8-2 and all playable Unders are 26-16-1 so far this year
• Model factors include Utah's extremely good rushing defense (2.68 yards per rush this year, 2.75 over last 7 games extending to last year), Utah's low opponent plays per game, Utah's high points per play, and UCLA's high rate of getting interceptions.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated playable Under for CFB this week.
• The college football timing rules on first downs changed, and so far our models have performed really well on Unders, particularly those over 60 points.
• Our highest-rated playable Unders are 8-2 so far this year (and the one loss last week, Colorado-Colorado State, required overtime to reach the number).
• Some of the model factors include SMU's high number of plays per game, TCU's overperformance in recent games in points per play, and TCU's strong rush defense which ranks highly in low yards and low percentage of first downs surrendered rushing.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the Thursday night matchup in college football.
• Georgia State is off to a 3-0 start, and redshirt senior QB Darren Grainger is off to a hot start, completing over 70% of his passes, passing for over 800 yards, and throwing six touchdown passes. He is currently 8th in total yards per game in FBS and 11th in passer rating in the nation. Grainger is also from Conway, SC, and grew up 5 minutes from where the game will be played tonight.
• This has been a series dominated by the road team, as the visitor has outright won all six prior meetings, and is 6-0 ATS. 

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model Under pick for Week 3 in CFB.
• So far in 2023, our highest-rated playable Unders are 7-1, and playable Unders are 19-8-1.
• So far in 2023, in all games with a total of 60.0 or higher, the Under is 13-4.
• The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
• It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
• Early in the year, bot these teams both rank top 15 nationally in plays ran, an area of regression potential, so we'll play under this large total.

Staff notes:

• This is a top playable model Under pick for Week 2.
• In Week 1, playable Unders went 9-4, and playable Unders on games with a total of 65 or higher went 3-0.
• Over the previous five seasons, games with totals of 68.0 or higher have gone Under 57% of the time (153-115-2).
• The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
• It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
• After one week, these teams both rank top 15 nationally in plays ran, an area of regression potential, so we'll play under this really large total.

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable model Under pick for Week 2.
• In Week 1, playable Unders went 9-4, and playable Unders on games with a total of 65 or higher went 3-0.
• The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
• It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
• Ole Miss was 5th nationally in plays run last year.
• Tulane benefited from big plays and turnovers in getting to 37 points against South Alabama, running only 53 total plays, and averaging nearly 20 yards per pass attempt. 

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated Under play for Week 1 in College Football.
• The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
• It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
• Houston and UTSA were both above average in plays per game last year, with UTSA ranking 12th in the category nationally.
• Both teams were in the top 16 last year in completed passes.

Staff notes:

• This is our second-highest rated Under for Week 1 of CFB.
• The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
• It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
• Western Kentucky was 2nd in completed passes per game (behind only Mississippi State) last season.
• Over the last five seasons, games with totals of 68.0 or higher have gone Under 57% of the time (153-115-2).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast Model.
• Georgia Tech had an in-season turnaround last year after the school fired Geoff Collins and replaced him with Brent Key after four games.
• Under Key, the team surprised by going 4-4 in ACC play, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as an underdog, including two wins as a dog of 20+ points. He was rewarded by getting the full-time job this offseason. 
• Louisville will be in its first game with new head coach Jeff Brohm, who left Purdue to go to his alma mater, and will have 26 transfers on the roster.
• Both teams will have new quarterbacks, with Georgia Tech starting Texas A&M transfer Haynes King over two incumbents who played down the stretch last season.
• We'll play on the improvement of Georgia Tech under Key being real, and potentially better on offense with a QB upgrade, and the uncertainty with all the changes at Louisville in this opener.
• Try to get this game above the key 7 number.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated spread pick in CFB on Thursday, and one of the highest-rated ones for Week 1.
• Kent State is rated as our No. 133 team (out of 133) in FBS this year.
• Kent State has a massive amount of turnover, as head coach Sean Lewis left after the season to become offensive coordinator at Colorado following Deion Sanders' hire there, and lots of players transferred out of the program. In fact, of the nine players who where selected to an all-MAC team from last year's 5-7 squad, all of them are now gone, including QB Colin Schlee (UCLA).
• So we will play against the large amount of turnover in the Kent State program and on a blowout in a talent mismatch here.
• NOTE: this game is in Orlando on Thursday night, and much of the state of Florida has been in a state of emergency following Hurricane Idalia. But the path went north of Orlando and all indications are that the game is on as scheduled.

Staff notes:

• This is our top model spread pick for "Week 0" of College Football, at over 55% estimated cover odds.
• Navy is entering this game with a new head coach (Brian Newberry) for the first time in 15 seasons.
• Navy has struggled in season openers of late, going 1-4 ATS in their first game against an FBS opponent the last five years, allowing an average of 50.0 points in those losses, and failing to cover the spread by an average of 34 points.
• Over the last two seasons, playable college football spread picks rated as 55% or higher coer odds have gone 51-40 (56%). 

Staff notes:

• This is a top-rated model pick for college football bowl games.
• In addition, Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm is leaving for his alma mater, Louisville, after the bowl matchup was announced and after already starting practices for the bowl game. While each interim coach situation in bowl games is different, Brohm has also been the play caller on offense for Purdue, and the line has already started to move on the rumors over the last day.
• Purdue also made the Big West title game but that was a function of a weak division and poor results by others, as they went 5-8 ATS and are No. 42 in our predictive power ratings.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick in bowl games as of today.
• In addition, Kentucky has a potential first round pick at QB in Will Levis, who has battled multiple injuries this year behind a struggling Kentucky offensive line. There's potential value here if Levis opts to sit out the bowl game between these two 7-5 teams to get ready for the NFL Draft.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest-rated model play for the bowl season.
• Both of these teams rank near the top of college football (Texas No. 7, Washington No. 22) in our yards per point metric, scoring points at a high rate in the regular season relative to yards.
• Washington's defense struggled in the regular season on third down defense, ranking 121st nationally, an area of regression potential.
• Texas will be without star playmaking running back Bijan Robinson, expected to be an early pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and in the six games that went Over for Texas in the regular season, he averaged 176 rushing yards and scored 14 total touchdowns.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick, but is a staff pick play based on bowl game trends.
• As we noted in our 2021 Bowl Betting article, bowl games played at venues where the average temperature during bowl season is below 50 degrees go over at a high rate. 
• After a 4-1 Over rate last bowl season, since 2008, the Over has hit 65% of the time (50-27) in these cold weather bowl games.
• The average late December/early January daily high in Bronx, New York is 41 degrees, the third-coldest bowl game venue in the country.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick in the Birmingham Bowl.
• Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall has entered the transfer portal, leaving Coastal with a big hole at QB. McCall has been a 3-year starter with a stellar 78-8 TD-INT ratio and averaged over 10 yards per attempt for his career.
• Given his importance, this line will likely be on the move and continue upward, so shop for your best line. 
• EDIT: after the news came out, McCall sent out a message that he was transferring but was going to play in the bowl game before doing so, so we are demoting the pick.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick, but is a staff pick play based on bowl game trends.
• As we noted in our 2021 Bowl Betting article, bowl games played at venues where the average temperature during bowl season is below 50 degrees go over at a high rate. 
• After a 4-1 Over rate last bowl season, since 2008, the Over has hit 65% of the time (50-27) in these cold weather bowl games.
• The average late December/early January daily high in Boise, Idaho is 36 degrees, the coldest bowl game venue in the country.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick.
• As we noted last year in our Bowl Betting Trends article, teams with great spread records in the regular season are actually good teams to go against in bowls.
• Adding in the 5-1 record last year, going back to 2011, if you had played against every team that had a 75% or better cover record in the season, you would have gone 45-29-1 ATS (61%).
• Connecticut had an improbably season, making a bowl at 6-6 despite being outscored by over 6 points on average, and going 9-3 ATS.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick but is a play based on player news and trends.
• Florida QB Anthony Richardson has already announced he is sitting out the bowl game to get ready for the NFL Draft, and this line could continue to move if more Florida players join Richardson.
• Oregon State is 10-2 ATS this year and has covered six straight games by an average of 10 points. Even though we might ordinarily fade a team with a gaudy record ATS, the Richardson news is early and we are grabbing line value in this matchup.
• This game is being played in Las Vegas, giving Oregon State a rare travel advantage over an SEC team, who typically play in their home region.

Staff notes:

• Clemson is fourth in our power rankings, but is a distant fourth and a lot closer to a host of other teams in the tier after the clear top 3 of Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia.
• We project Clemson to have a 41% of winning the ACC this year, but they will not make the CFB Playoffs in all those scenarios.
• It is also extremely unlikely that Clemson makes the playoffs if they don't win the ACC title, compared to champs from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12, and the top non-champs from the SEC and Big Ten.
• The Clemson schedule isn't particularly tough, but they do travel to Notre Dame non-conference, in what is likely a must-win to make the playoffs, because it would be their best quality win.
• So we see a lot of outs here, from Clemson again struggling at QB and not bouncing back, to losing multiple games in the regular season, to losing at Notre Dame or in the ACC title game.

Staff notes:

• This is currently our top-rated spread pick for the Conference Championship games.
• Tulane is 10-2 SU and ATS, and their only loss and non-cover in conference play was against Central Florida by 7 points in a game they lost the turnover margin 2-to-0.
• UCF QB John Rhys Plumlee had the big 67-yard TD scramble (and rushed for 176 yards total) that was a difference in the first game against Tulane, but has battled injuries and left the last two games for UCF with shoulder and hamstring injuries, as UCF has failed to cover by double digits in both (loss to Navy, win over South Florida).

Staff notes:

• Texas has the biggest discrepancy between our projections (7.3) and the betting market win total (8.5).
• The Longhorns have repeatedly been ranked highly in recent preseasons and underperformed, and thus aren't rated as highly as their reputation in our program ratings.
• Texas has reached nine wins (including bowl games) only once in the last nine seasons.

Staff notes:

• Arkansas is projected for 6.4 wins in our preseason predictions, and we give them only a 33.6% chance of exceeding 8 wins this regular season.
• The Razorbacks finally had a good season last year (in head coach Sam Pittman's second year with the program) after several poor seasons, as they went 8-4 before winning their bowl game.
• Arkansas faces a much tougher non-conference schedule this year, in addition to a loaded SEC West, as they play Cincinnati, BYU, and Liberty. (Last year, they beat Texas on a neutral field but otherwise had three home games against a FCS team and two bottom 20 FBS teams.)
• Arkansas also must replace several key players, including WR Treylon Burks, who had over 1,100 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns for a team where no one else reached 400 yards or scored more than two touchdowns.

Staff notes:

• Our Ensemble Forecast model has this as a playable spread pick at 53.5% cover odds.
• Our predictive power ratings have Kansas State up to No. 8, after starting the year at No. 31.
• Kansas State has covered 3 of the last 4, and has outperformed the spread by 20 points on average over the last month.
• Kansas started the year 5-0 SU and ATS but has closed 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS, failing to cover the last two by double digits and coming off a 41-point loss to Texas.
• Kansas State is playing to reach the Big 12 title game with a victory in this game and get a rematch against TCU.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick in the "Civil War" rivalry game between Oregon and Oregon State.
• While Oregon has been hot for the most part since their opening loss to Georgia, it is Oregon State with the better overall spread record (9-2) and better performances over the last month, as they have covered each of the last five games, by an average of 11 points.
• Oregon State has a decided advantage as a home underdog in pass defense, where they rank 12th nationally at 6.1 yards per attempt allowed, while Oregon is 84th nationally.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick according to our models, with 53.5% cover odds.
• Missouri will be playing for bowl eligibility at home against Arkansas in this season finale rivalry game. 
• It's a battle of the better defense (Missouri) against better offense (Arkansas), but Arkansas' pass defense ranks in the bottom 20 in yards per attempt, and is coming off giving up over 700 yards in the win over Ole Miss (where they had a 3-to-0 turnover margin).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick according to our models.
• Texas A&M is in free-fall and the fanbase is restless as a program that entered the year highly-rated has now lost six straight games (1-4-1 ATS over that span). 
• Massachusetts is our 130th team in FBS (which is why the spread is as high as it is) but is dead-last in our Yards per Point difference stat, which can also capture some luck factors if a team is underperforming in scoring differential relative to the yards gained and allowed. 
• UMass is coming off a 33-35 loss at Arkansas State, where they scored their season-high in points, and outgained Arkansas State 475 to 275.

Staff notes:

• This is our top model spread pick for Week 11 in college football.
• Tennessee is coming off their only loss of the year at Georgia, and has covered the spread in 7 of 9 games.
• Tennessee's one relative weakness is their pass defense, something that Georgia (top 20 in both passing yards and efficiency) was able to exploit.
• Missouri's passing attack is not very good, and by passing yards per game are the worst team Tennessee has faced this year.
• Missouri's defense has played well, but the offense has really struggled, and with Tennessee's multi-faceted offensive attack, Missouri will have difficulty matching Tennessee in points.

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable model pick against the spread in college football this week.
• Since the start of October, when our models have a playable pick on a team that is an underdog of 20 or more, they are 8-1 ATS, including two Staff Pick wins last week, including Nevada against San Jose State.
• Our models are picking up regression factors against San Jose State, including their high turnover margin and over-performance in yards per point margin.
• Colorado State, meanwhile, ranks near the bottom of FBS in yards per point margin, suggesting the scoring margins are more extreme than the underlying yards gained and allowed would suggest..

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick but is a pick based on trends and line movement.
• When our public pool pick data shows a 30% or more difference between win odds and pick popularity, the unpopular side is 7-2 ATS so far this year. Only 15% of the public is taking Kansas to win this game while they are a pick'em.
• This line has moved from Oklahoma State -3.5 to a PK (and Kansas now favored on the ML in some books) since opening, and is going against popularity numbers.
• Oklahoma State were shutout by Kansas State 48-0 last week, in a game where they were awful and managed only 217 yards of offense.
• Kansas is 6-1-1 ATS, with the only loss coming last week against Baylor, by 1.5 points (12 point loss as a 10.5-point dog), and the surprising Jayhawks are playing for their sixth win of the season,  and a bowl berth.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick according to our models.
• As noted with the Florida staff pick, in the month of October, when our models have a playable pick on a team that is an underdog of 20 or more, they are 6-1 ATS.
• We also had a staff pick against San Jose State last week, but their game against New Mexico State was postponed after a freshman RB on the team was tragically killed last Friday after being struck by a school bus while riding a scooter, and this is the first game for San Jose State in two weeks.
• Our models are likely picking up several regression factors for San Jose State, including their extremely high turnover differential margin, as representing value to play against.
• Nevada has failed to cover in six straight, but may be making a QB switch back to the original starter for the two games they did cover at the start of the season, after Shane Illingsworth came in for an ineffective Shane Cox during the game against San Diego State last week.

Staff notes:

• This is one of the top playable spread picks for college football this week according to our models, with estimated 57.5% cover odds.
• So far in October, when our models identify a playable spread pick on an underdog of 20 or more points, they are 6-1 ATS.
• This is the largest spread for Georgia in this rivalry game going back to at least 1995, and the first time the spread has been over 20 since Florida was favored by 20.5 in 1997 (Georgia outright win, 37-17).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick according to our models.
• Louisiana Tech could be down to their third-string quarterback for this game, as starting QB Parker McNeil was knocked out of the first quarter of last week's game, and then backup Matthew Downing suffered a season-ending injury at the end of the game.
• We don't know McNeil's official status but this line has moved from 9 points at opening to its current line.
• Florida International has also played better in October, going 3-1 ATS and covering by an average of 15.3 points, including an outright win at Charlotte last week as a 14-point dog.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
• Cincinnati QB Ben Bryant suffered a concussion last week, and is in concussion protocol, though the line hasn't moved for any concern that he could miss the matchup.
• Cincinnati is a very popular pick according to our pick'em football pool data, with 90% of public picking Cincinnati in this matchup despite the low spread.
• So far this year, when there has been at least a 30% difference between our estimated win odds and the public pick rate, the unpopular side is 4-1 ATS.
• SMU is 1-0 since the Pony Poop incident and we are playing on them going for number two at home here.

Staff notes:

• Our models have a lean on LSU but this one is just below the playable threshold for our models.
• This is a staff play going against public popularity, on line movement, and LSU's offensive breakout last week in head coach Brian Kelly's first year in Baton Rouge.
• Ole Miss was a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday night but this line has been moving and is now at -2.5 at some books, so we are recommending grabbing it before it gets to three points. 
• According to our pool pick'em data, 77% of the public is picking 7-0 Mississippi to win outright, even though LSU is now the betting market favorite. As noted in the pick on SMU, so far this year when there is a 30%+ difference in our public pick data and our projected win odds, the undervalued team is 4-1 ATS (and the one loss was by a half-point). 
• LSU is coming off a great offensive performance at Florida where they had over 500 yards of offense and QB Jaydon Daniels averaged over 10 yards per pass, and LSU scored a TD on each of their first six possessions.
  
   

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick according to our models, and Kentucky is also a playable Money Line play if you would rather take odds in the +145 to +150 range at most books on an outright win.
• Mississippi State has rolled in three straight home games and is 3-0-1 ATS at home, but lost outright as a road favorite at LSU last month.
• Mississippi State benefited by catching each of their last two opponents having to start backup quarterbacks because of injury (Texas A&M and Arkansas).
• Kentucky is coming off an upset loss to South Carolina, where its starting QB Will Levis missed the game.
• Levis is expected to be back for this one, giving a boost to Kentucky and some value compared to recent results for both teams.

Staff notes:

• This is one our top playable moneyline plays in CFB this week and also a playable spread pick (LSU +2.5) but we will play the moneyline with the spread under the 3 point number.
• LSU is coming off a blowout loss at home to Tennessee, and our public data from game winner and spread pools show that Florida is a very popular pick, being selected to win 80% of the time.
• Our power ratings have LSU as the better team despite last week's result, as we rank them No. 20 to No. 44 for Florida, and 5.3 points better on a neutral field.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
• This is also a pick based on the Charlotte QB situation, where starter Chris Reynolds got hurt in the opener and missed the next two losses, and the pass efficiency numbers are drastically different with and without him.
• Reynolds is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt making Charlotte a live dog with the potential to score.
• Charlotte is coming off a bye, but two weeks ago, they lost outright to UTEP in a close game, but won yards and first downs and were sunk by turnovers.

Staff notes:

• This is our top rated play against the spread for Week 7 and tied for our highest rated play of the last three weeks (57.5% cover odds).
• Over the last three weeks, college spread picks rated as having 55% or greater cover odds have gone 6-2 ATS.
• Our power ratings have Central Florida as 26.9 points better on a neutral field, and this game is being played at home in Orlando.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated model plays against the spread this week in college football.
• Massachusetts is one of the worst offenses in FBS, but they are also dead last in our yards per point metric, meaning they have significantly underperformed how many points you would expect them to score based on yards gained, due to things like turnovers and missed opportunities in key spots.
• Liberty ranks near the bottom of FBS in both sacks taken and interceptions thrown (by percentage) so in a game where they are heavily favored, they could also play more conservatively given their recent struggles.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our playable model picks, and is also one of the three highest rated plays by our Decision Tree model.
• UCLA is coming off a home win as a slight dog over Washington to move to 5-0 overall, while Utah has covered four straight after their season-opening loss at Florida.
• UCLA's is emerging on offense for coach Chip Kelly and fifth-year senior QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, up to No. 8 in total yards per game, and they've scored 40+ points in four of their five games.
• UCLA's defense also rates much better in yard and efficiency stats, and may be undervalued by just looking at points allowed.
• UCLA is 7th in opponent yards per rush and 14th in opponent yards per pass this season, but has poor third down and red zone stats, areas for positive regression.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick with 53.1% cover odds.
• In addtion, we are playing the potential impact of wind and rainy conditions in the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday with the after-effects of Tropical Storm Ian, and how those conditions could impact offenses..

Staff notes:

• *This is one of our top-rated playable spread picks this week in college football (56.4% cover odds)
• Colorado has been easily the worst major conference team in FBS, losing by 25 to TCU, 31 to Air Force, and 42 to Minnesota.
• They cannot pass the ball (barely over 4 yards per attempt) but make up for it by not being able to stop the run at all. Colorado is allowing 363 rushing yards a game, dead last in FBS.
• UCLA is averaging over 200 yards rushing per game, and has a big advantage on the lines in this game, where they rank top 30 in both rushing yards gained and allowed so far.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick (50.2% cover odds by our models) but is a staff pick based on how Kansas has looked so far this year.
• This Kansas team is the story of the year so far, and has had a major breakout from how bad the program has been for a decade, in head coach Lance Leipold's second year with the program.
• From 2012 to 2021, Kansas went 11-97 SU and 42-63-3 ATS and was the worst major program in FBS.
• However, they beat Texas toward the end of last year, and then played well in the last two games (two close losses and covers).
• Kansas has started this year with impressive road wins at West Virginia and Houston. They've now covered five straight games, spanning this year and last, by an average of 22.3 points.
• The Jayhawks have scored 48 or more points in all three wins so far this year, and currently rank 3rd in the nation in scoring.
• So we are jumping on the momentum of this program, as being much better than the preseason power ratings and expectations (priors) and providing value still because of that, against the market.

Staff notes:

• Our Ensemble Forecast Model has Iowa State as one of the top playable moneyline games in college football this weekend.
• Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell has had historic success at Iowa State, but one thing he has yet to do is beat Iowa, going 0-6 so far.
• Iowa is coming off an ugly 7-3 win over South Dakota State that included two safeties and a field goal. How ugly? Iowa QB Spencer Petras completed only 11 passes on 29 drop backs (including four sacks) and averaged 4.4 yards per pass attempt.
• We'll take the team we have rated slightly higher on a neutral field in an upset at Iowa, and play against that terrible offensive start for Iowa.

Staff notes:

• Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Vols a 57% chance of covering the spread.
• This game has been getting steamed up over the last two weeks, as the spread opened at 31.5 points. Two weeks ago, it was at 32.5 points.
• Our predictive ratings model would strongly favor Ball State, but when the line moves far off the predictive ratings model expectation, it is usually because of player or participation news, and it can be a negative indicator.
• A week ago, the NCAA cleared WR Bru McCoy to play right away after transferring from USC. McCoy was one of the nation's top prospects before facing off-field charges that were dismissed before he transferred.
• Ball State is replacing QB Drew Plitt, who started 45 career games, with 5'11" fifth-year senior John Paddock, who has thrown 34 total passes in four years.