NBA Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• The Pelicans started the season strong, winning 130-108 on the road against the Nets.
• As of November 20, we project New Orleans with a 38% to win the Southwest Division. At that percentage, the break-even moneyline for the Pelicans to win the Southwest is +160.
• We originally projected the Pelicans with very slight value on division win futures before the season started, but that value has increased after the first game. You might think that one game can't tell us that much about a team. But historically when our projected division odds have made similar jumps (from similar starting points) after one game, the updated odds have been well calibrated, with those teams winning the division slightly more often than we predicted.
• The Pelicans also did well in the preseason, which has been shown to have some predictive value.
• Besides the +350 line available at FanDuel and BetMGM, this bet is also available at +340 at PointsBet.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline pick for Sunday in the NBA.
• So far this year, playable moneyline picks are +30.6 units across 219 games, and model moneyline picks on slight underdogs (up to +175) have been historically profitable.
• Denver's Aaron Gordon missed Saturday's game, an 18-point road loss at Memphis, and is unlikely to play in the back-to-back.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline pick for Sunday in the NBA.
• So far this year, playable moneyline picks are +30.6 units across 219 games, and model moneyline picks on slight underdogs (up to +175) have been historically profitable.
• Kevin Durant is still out (and yet to make his debut for the Suns) while Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered a knee injury in Friday night's game and is day-to-day.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model moneyline pick for Friday in the NBA.
• So far this year, playable moneyline picks are +30.3 units across 214 games, and model moneyline picks on slight underdogs (up to +175) have been historically profitable.

Staff notes:

• This is a top-rated model moneyline play in the NBA for Wednesday night.
• We have historically shown profitiablity with moneyline picks on slight NBA underdogs over the last several years.
• Jayson Tatum is questionable for tonight's game with a left ankle sprain as of the time we posted this pick (while Spencer Dinwiddie is questionable for Dallas).
• Tatum being potentially out or limited with an ankle injury provides the potential for additional value at this line. 
• Other factors our model is picking up includes recent Mavericks' opponents having a low assist-to-turnover margin, Boston's recent opponents scoring a higher amount of points inside the arc, Boston's relatively lower rebound numbers, and Dallas' defensive efficiency in recent games.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline pick for the NBA tonight.
• Zion Williamson is questionable for tonight, after missing last night's game with a foot contusion, and being questionable for that one until ruled out as well.
• Chicago lost last week to New Orleans at home in a close 4-point game where they had the lead going into the fourth quarter.
• One regression factor that our models are picking up is that the Bulls' opponents have had a high Free Throw to Field Goal Attemnpt ratio in the last three games, including the Pelicans having 18 more attempts than the Bulls in their recent matchup.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline pick. Our NBA moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
• Almost 15% of Portland's points this season have come on fastbreaks, the fifth most in the league. However, the Hornets have allowed the fewest fastbreak points in the league this season, and have held opponents to the fewest points per fastbreak.
• This is the 4th game of a 6-game road trip for Portland. Charlotte is playing their third home game in a row.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our playable moneyline picks on NBA underdogs between +110 and +175.
• Some of the factors driving our model pick including the Raptors' opponents having a high assist rate on made field goals, and Atlanta's opponents having a poor assist-to-turnover margin.
• The Raptors recent performance in the second quarter, and overall through three quarters, has been below average, and reflective that the depth for the team has not been productive so far.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline pick. Our moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
• One factor our models are picking up on is the high opponent three-point percentage against Brooklyn so far (40%) which can make an outsized impact on game results but is an area for regression potential.
• In addition, Brooklyn's foul rate according to a few different measures has been unsustainably high. That includes both personal fouls and technical fouls. Over the long run they'll get a friendlier whistle.
• Conversely, Dallas has drawn an abnormally high number of fouls on offense, and is likely to see regression in this area.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline pick. Our moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs (+110 to +175) have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
• The Bucks are off to a 2-0 start, while Brooklyn has started 1-2 with two double-digit losses.
• One factor our models are likely picking up is the high opponent three-point percentage against Brooklyn so far (44%) which can make an outsized impact on game results but is an area for regression potential.
• Another factor is Milwaukee's relatively poor point differential in the second quarter in recent games, which can be indicative of bench depth if a star is more likley to sit for a bigger part of that quarter.
• In this case, Milwaukee is still without Khris Middleton to start the year, and have a massive split in the +/- with and without Giannis Antetokounmpo playing. While they have overcome it so far, the Bucks' depth has not played well and they have been significantly outscored with Giannis out of the game.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline NBA pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
• Our moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs (+110 to +175) have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
• Brooklyn is coming off a 22-point home loss to New Orleans in the season opener, while Toronto won against Cleveland in their first game.
• Some of the factors that might contribute to value against Brooklyn in this game include the Nets' extremely poor rebounding rate in the opener, and the high volume of assisted baskets they surrendered (31 on 50 made field goals).