BetIQ Daily: Auburn vs. Florida and Big Saturday Underdog Picks

BetIQ turns to some big underdogs with Saturday picks and also has a pick on the big Auburn at Florida game.

February 19, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Florida has a big game against Auburn (Jeff Moreland/Icon Sportswire)

This Saturday is a big underdog day at BetIQ Daily.

We start by taking the points against a team that should be a No. 1 seed. We also pick a team that is 3-21 on the year, and that team doesn’t even have the worst record of the teams we’ve picked today.

Excited? Let’s hit some big underdog plays and see if they bark.

1) Florida +4

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • vs. Auburn, Saturday at 2:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
  • This is a playable spread pick (54.2 percent), according to the Ensemble Forecast Model.
  • Florida is at home in a vital game for its NCAA Tournament hopes after two straight losses, including by one point to Texas A&M.
  • Auburn has been much better at home (12-1-1 ATS) than on the road (3-5 ATS, and three straight losses, with all three decided by two points or less or in OT).

2) Oregon State +8.5

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • at Arizona State, Saturday at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
  • This is our top model play, according to the Ensemble Forecast Model, with 55.9 percent cover odds.
  • Model picks with over 55 percent cover odds are 7-1 ATS so far in February.
  • Oregon State (3-21) has had a lot of instability and has started five different lineups in last six games.
  • Arizona State is coming off its biggest win of the season, an 81-57 win over Oregon where it outscored Oregon by 18 in second half.
  • The Sun Devils shot 9-of-20 from deep and nearly 65 percent on two-point shots against Oregon, which was uncharacteristic for a team that ranks in the bottom 30 nationwide in effective field-goal percentage for the season.

3) Mississippi Valley State +10

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • vs. Texas Southern, Saturday at 5:00 p.m. ET.
  • This is not a playable pick according to the Ensemble Forecast Model, but it’s a play based on an off line according to our predictive ratings model and two teams trending in opposite directions.
  • Our predictive ratings model has Texas Southern at 76.6 percent, and over the last two weeks, teams that are 66 percent or higher to cover based on full-season power ratings are 2-7 ATS.
  • These teams have both used a variety of lineups and rotations, making past performance less reliable.
  • Texas Southern started off 10-3 ATS, but it’s 2-7 ATS over last nine games and is playing worse.
  • Guard PJ Henry, the leading scorer in the big Florida upset with 16 points, has disappeared over last two weeks.
  • Mississippi Valley State (2-21) continues to play hard despite its terrible record and has covered four straight.
  • Delta Devils have played significantly better since emergence of freshman Gary Grant in starting lineup eight games ago.

4) Lipscomb -2

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • at North Alabama, Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Our predictive ratings model has North Alabama at 69.8 percent, and the same rationale about lines that significantly differ from the predictive ratings (see: Mississippi Valley State) applies here.
  • Ahsan Asadullah, Lipscomb’s leading scorer and rebounder, missed eight games this season, and Lipscomb was eight points worse on average in games without him.
  • North Alabama is going in the other direction, playing nine points worse on average in its 12 games since Jan. 8.
  • That corresponds with the last game played by Payton Youngblood, the team’s best three-point shooter (45.9 percent), who has been replaced by freshman Daniel Ortiz (33.1 percent from three) in the lineup.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

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