BetIQ Daily: Cowboys vs. Saints Picks and NFL MVP Value Picks

Picks for Thursday include the Cowboys vs. Saints game, a Dak Prescott player prop, and an NFL MVP odds breakdown.

December 2, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Dak Prescott goes against the Saints on Thursday Night Football (Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)

Thursday, December 2 (#10)

Welcome to BetIQ Daily, where we highlight a few sports betting picks from our premium data-driven models and analysis.

This is just a small sample of picks available over the next few days, which include college basketball, NBA, and the upcoming college football conference championship game picks.

See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.

2 Picks for Thursday

1) Dallas/New Orleans Under 47.0 – NFL Over/Under Pick 

• Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The Cowboys/Saints over/under is the top playable total for Week 13, and it’s a value play across all our models.
• The Saints will turn to QB Taysom Hill, who is far more run-oriented.
• The Saints are dealing with lots of key offensive injuries that have impacted scoring.
• New Orleans is first in yards per carry allowed and third in total rushing yards, which bodes poorly for Cowboys RBs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.

2) Dak Prescott Under 284.5 Passing Yards — NFL Player Prop

• Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET.
• Our passing model shows 19.0 yards of under value at 47.0 expected total points.
• With our game over/under models showing value on the under, that increases the edge on the passing-yards under as well.
• Going against a strong rushing defense and playing against a team with offensive limitations, expect more conservative play-calling from Dallas.

***Correlated Same-Game Parlay: DAL/NO UNDER 47.0, Prescott UNDER 284.5 Passing Yards, Amari Cooper UNDER 46.5 Receiving Yards***

• If you want to add a Same-Game Parlay, go with Amari Cooper’s under as well.
• Cooper is coming back after missing two games due to COVID-19, and he still is not 100 percent.
• Cooper will likely be behind CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup in snaps tonight.

NFL MVP Value Bets

The NFL MVP race is fairly wide open this year.

Last year, I detailed an MVP metric to evaluate who is likely to win the award. The highest-ranked QB by that metric has won the MVP award every year since 2010, except for when RB Adrian Peterson won in 2012.

You can read more details in the linked article, but the key categories for predicting MVP are:

• Team Winning Percentage Rank
• Total Touchdowns (Passing+Rushing) Rank
• Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANYA) Rank
• Passer Rating Rank
• Team Points per Game Rank
• Passing TD Percentage Rank

Here’s a chart showing the top candidates this year by the MVP metric, among those with betting odds of +5000 or better at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Let’s go through some highlights and notable values and avoids:

• The average NFL MVP QB has averaged a score of 2.2 by the MVP metric, which no candidate is close to yet.
• Kyler Murray looks like great value if he returns this week after missing three games. He’ll be in the running if he finishes strong and Arizona earns the top seed in the NFC.
• Tom Brady has the shortest odds for good reason and is the safest candidate, providing slight value.
• Matthew Stafford has efficiency stats in line with past winners, but the Rams need to rebound.
• Josh Allen is a bit overvalued in the betting market as the No. 2 favorite.
• Among longer shots, Kirk Cousins and Joe Burrow have some value, but their teams have to finish strong to have a chance.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

• NFL point spread picks: 36-25-1 (59%, +7.8 units)
• College football over/under picks: 168-141-3 (54%, +11.7 units)
• College basketball over/under picks: 255-220-6 (54%, +11.8 units)
• NBA spread picks: 13-6 (68%, +5.8 units)

To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.

We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.

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