BetIQ Daily: Chiefs vs. Bengals and Rams vs. 49ers Championship Game Picks

Sunday picks for BetIQ return to the NFL with picks on both the Chiefs vs. Bengals and Rams vs. 49ers in the conference championship games.

January 30, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Travis Kelce's game-winning TD against Buffalo has the Chiefs in prime position (William Purnell/Icon Sportswire)

BetIQ Daily is here for the conference championship games, which will decide who faces off in the Super Bowl.

The road teams in today’s games won all three regular-season matchups with their opponents. Will history repeat itself, or should you go with the favorites?

1) Kansas City -7

  • NFL Spread Pick
  • Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET on CBS
  • Kansas City is our top model spread pick so far in the playoffs.
  • Chiefs have scored 84 points through first two rounds of playoffs, most all-time.
  • Cincinnati has won two close playoff games with 45 total points, relying on a +4 turnover margin, while QB Joe Burrow was sacked 11 times in those two games.

2) San Francisco +3.5 

  • NFL Spread Pick
  • Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX
  • This is not a model pick, but based on trends and team performances.
  • In games between Rams and 49ers with both current coaches, Rams are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS as the betting favorite, including five straight losses.
  • The two lowest-yardage games for the Rams offense all year were both against San Francisco.
  • The fourth-lowest-yardage game and only other game besides against San Francisco that Rams were held under 20 points was against Tennessee, another team that relies on front four to bring pressure without blitzing.

3) San Francisco/LA Rams Over 45.5 Points

  • NFL Over/Under Pick
  • Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX
  • Our highest-rated playable over/under pick for championship games.
  • Niners coming off a low-scoring game impacted by weather, which could provide value in better conditions here.
  • San Francisco finished regular season ranked No. 1 in net yards per pass attempt and racked up 449 total yards in Week 18 overtime win against Rams in game that went over.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

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