BetIQ Daily: Lakers vs. Pelicans, 76ers vs. Knicks and a College Basketball Pick

BetIQ Daily Sunday picks include the 76ers-Knicks, Lakers-Pelicans, and Rick Pitino's Iona squad going against Rider.

February 27, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Joel Embiid now has James Harden with him, going against the Knicks (Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

BetIQ Daily is heading back to the NBA on this Sunday, as the season gets into the stretch run after the All-Star break. We jump on the new Harden/Embiid combo in Philadelphia with a model trend that has been hot lately.

We also turn to Rick Pitino’s team to handle business.

1) 76ers -8.5

  • NBA Spread Pick
  • at New York Knicks, Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET on ABC.
  • Yesterday, we noted that over the last three weeks, when our Predictive Rating Model is far off the actual spread and gives a team a 30 percent chance or less, those teams  are 9-4 ATS.
  • The 76ers qualify here, as our power ratings would have Philadelphia by 3.7 points on a neutral court, and this is a road game.
  • The reasons are usually related to other factors like player participation, injuries, and things not captured by the full-season stats.
  • In this case, the Knicks are in poor form (3-14 since January 17th) and the 76ers now have James Harden, who scored 27 points in his team debut Friday.

2) Lakers -2

  • NBA Spread Pick
  • vs. New Orleans Pelicans, Sunday at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
  • This is a playable spread pick, according to our Ensemble Forecast Model.
  • Lakers are only 18-of-67 (26.9 percent) from three-point range the last two games (win over Utah and loss to Clippers), below their season average of 34.7 percent and a positive regression candidate in that regard.

3) Iona -8.5

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • at Rider, Sunday at 2:00 p.m. ET
  • This is our top model pick (55.1 percent), according to the Ensemble Forecast Model, as of post time.
  • Iona has held opponents to a 41.8 percent effective FG percentage over last three games.
  • That’s even better than its full-season numbers, which were already top 40.
  • Rider is one of the worst shooting teams in the country, ranking 345th (out of 358 Division I teams) in effective FG percentage.
  • Iona has made only 17 of 32 free-throw attempts in last two games, an area of potential positive regression in this matchup as a favorite.

Staff Betting Picks Coming to Subscribers in March

For subscribers only, we will be releasing staff betting picks in March and throughout the NCAA Tournament. Just as with the picks here at BetIQ Daily, these will be a mix of confirming some model picks and making some that don’t appear as playable to our automated models, but individual research shows a potential edge.

We spend a lot of time in March prepping for our 2022 NCAA Bracket Picks and maximizing our subscribers’ chances of winning pools. Those same learnings and research can also be useful for betting picks. The majority of upcoming picks will be available there, but we will still tease some of those picks in BetIQ Daily.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our college basketball spread picks listed in BetIQ Daily have gone 19-12 so far in the month of February. ATS college basketball picks rated as playable with 55.0% confidence are 10-4 in February.

As of post time, here are some other highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

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