BetIQ Daily: MNF Picks for Browns vs. Raiders and TNF Pick for Washington vs. Eagles

Picks for Monday and Tuesday include the Browns-Raiders game and the Washington-Philadelphia game in a full two days of action.

December 20, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

The Browns wlll try to overcome a COVID outbreak (Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

Monday, December 20 (#22)

BetIQ Daily will have a fuller schedule today thanks to some NFL reshuffling, so today’s article will cover games both today and tomorrow.

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3 Monday/Tuesday Picks

1) Las Vegas/Cleveland Over 40.5 Points – NFL Over/Under Pick

  • Monday, 5:00 p.m. ET
  • This line dropped from the opening of 43.5 down to 38.0 because of the COVID-19 absences, but it partially rebounded back after the game was moved to Monday.
  • Our Ensemble Forecast model has this as a playable over pick at the current line.
  • Nick Mullens, who will start for Cleveland at QB, has averaged 7.9 yards per attempt for his career, but he has also thrown an interception on 3.7 percent of passes. But compared to most third-string QBs, he’s solid.

2) Nick Mullens Over 194.5 Passing Yards – NFL Player Prop

  • Monday, 5:00 p.m. ET
  • Based on the spread and total and Cleveland’s run tendencies, our passing-yard model puts this at 213.5 for Mullens.
  • This is the lowest quarterback passing-yard total of the week.
  • Mullens threw for at least 200 yards in all 16 career starts with San Francisco and has averaged 275.3 passing yards as a starter.

***Same-Game Parlay Suggestion: Over 40.5 Points, Mullens Over 194.5 Pass Yards, Las Vegas -3***

  • If you want to play a correlated parlay for this game, couple the game total and Mullens’ passing yards with Vegas covering, as Mullens is more likely to throw in a game where the Browns are trailing.

3) Washington/Philadelphia Under 42.5 Points – NFL Over/Under Pick

  • Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Game was moved from Sunday due to COVID-19 issues for Washington.
  • Our Ensemble Forecast model has this as a playable under pick.
  • We are still waiting for final confirmation of Washington’s starting QB, but if Taylor Heinicke is out, it will be either backup Kyle Allen or Garrett Gilbert, who just signed with the WFT this week.
  • The total may drop further depending on final confirmation of Washington’s starting QB, particularly if it is Gilbert, providing closing-line value today.
  • If Washington is playing a backup QB, expect a conservative game plan, and Philadelphia should be more cautious in response.

Upset Picks in Action

In addition to those picks above, we have several past picks in action over the next two days.

  • Chicago was one of our upset pick plays this week, where the other two went 1-1 so far (+0.6 units).
  • San Diego State, playing on Tuesday against Texas-San Antonio, was one of our moneyline bowl upset picks at +125. Since publishing that, the line has continued to move in Aztecs’ favor, and they are now the favorite at -3.

BetIQ Daily Plan for Holiday Weeks

We have a full week of sports, and also family time, as we head toward Christmas Day on Saturday. That will be followed by the traditional bowl week between Christmas and New Year’s Day.

Here’s the schedule plan for the next two weeks.

  • Wednesday, December 22: Week 16 NFL upset picks (plus Missouri-Army?)
  • Thursday, December 23: Christmas picks, three NFL games on Thursday/Saturday, four bowl games over that span, plus NBA.
  • Sunday, December 26: Week 16 Sunday NFL picks
  • Monday, December 27: MNF picks for NO/MIA + Monday/Tuesday bowl games
  • Wednesday, December 29: Week 17 NFL upset picks + four Wednesday bowl games
  • Thursday, December 30: Picks for the nine bowl games on Friday/Saturday, including CFP games.
  • Saturday, January 1: A picks article on the New Year’s Day Bowl Games.
  • Sunday, January 2: Week 17 Sunday NFL picks

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

  • NFL point spread picks: 42-30-1 (58%, +8.2 units)
  • College football over/under picks: 173-144-3 (55%, +13.3 units)
  • NBA spread picks: 13-9 (59%, +2.8 units)

To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.

We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.

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