Three Upset Picks To Consider For NFL Week 11 (2021)

We highlight three NFL Week 11 upset picks as potential value plays against the point spread or moneyline, based on various data angles.

November 17, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Here are three NFL Week 11 upset picks that piqued our interest based on one or more data-driven angles.

Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

Point Spread: +2.5

Moneyline: +110

The Seahawks are coming off the first shutout of Russell Wilson’s career, in his first game back after the first injury that caused him to miss games in his career. Wilson wasn’t good last week, completing just half of his passes, and throwing two costly red zone interceptions.

Here’s a stat for you, though.

Since the start of the 2017 season, 26 teams have been shutout (excluding Week 17, and the playoffs) and those teams went 17-6-3 ATS in their next game. There can sometimes be little bit of value playing on teams who looked bad the week before, and for teams that scored zero points, that may create even more motivation the next time out.

Arizona also looks a little overvalued, as the Cardinals have benefited from very good fumble luck, fourth down results, and kicking results all going their way most of the year (though that changed somewhat in their 34-10 blowout loss to Carolina last week).

Maybe Russell Wilson is still injured, though there’s been no reports to indicate he has further injured his finger. He may have been just rusty after time off, giving a reason to expect a better performance in his second game back.

We still don’t know if Arizona QB Kyler Murray is playing, by the way, so there’s still some potential he could miss this game. Arizona has a bye next week and the coaching staff could choose to just give Murray two weeks to get healthy, since he relies on his legs to impact games.

New Orleans Saints (at Philadelphia Eagles)

Point Spread: +1.0

Moneyline: +103

New Orleans is the highest value moneyline play according to our ensemble forecast model. The Saints are coming off a tough loss to Tennessee, one where they had over 100 more total yards than the Titans, but lost on some key plays and missed a two-point attempt to tie it late.

The Eagles, meanwhile, are coming off a big win at Denver.

The Saints are 0-2 without QB Jameis Winston, but both of those losses have come down to the final seconds, and this team is still going to be built around the defense. That matchup appears to favor New Orleans, as the Eagles are a low-volume pass attack that relies on rushing volume to set up explosive passing plays.

The Saints are the best rush defense in the league, allowing only 656 rushing yards and 3.1 yards per carry so far this year.

Houston Texans (at Tennessee Titans)

Point Spread: +10.0

Moneyline: +369

We’ll close again with another longer shot. (Last week’s long shot play of Detroit over Pittsburgh ended up covering the spread, but failing to deliver the win in an ugly game that ended in a tie.)

This week, Tennessee is a lot more vulnerable as a big favorite than the public thinks. In fact, Tennessee is currently the most popular public pick in spread pools according to our data, with 72% of pick’em players taking the Titans minus the points.

Twenty-four teams have played two games in Week 9 and 10. Do you know what team ranks dead last in total yards over the last two weeks? Tennessee.

They’ve gone 2-0 without star RB Derrick Henry, but if you look below the surface results, this offense is struggling, and now they are without both Henry and WR Julio Jones.

Our Ensemble Forecast model also sees value on Houston plus the points, and 72% of teams like Houston identified by our Similar Games Model covered the spread.

If you simply went by power ratings, Tennessee would be the pick here, but for reasons ratings don’t fully consider (Tyrod Taylor at QB rather than Davis Mills, Tennessee offensive injuries, points versus yards meaning Titans overvalued), Houston gains appeal.

Year-To-Date Results

Through eight weeks of picks, our highlighted upset picks are 10-13-1 straight up and 13-11 against the spread, and we are +5.4 units against the moneyline at time of publication.

Last week, all three underdogs covered the spread. We ended up with great line value on Detroit after Ben Roethlisberger was ruled out, though the money line had already moved in our favor even before that happened.

However, the Lions could not get the key score in overtime to bring home the outright win. Meanwhile, the Saints came within a two-point play of going to overtime against the Titans, and covered. The 49ers cruised to a victory over the Rams on Monday Night Football.

Just as importantly from a predictive standpoint, as close game luck can decide individual outcomes, based on the moneyline at the time of publication, we’ve gotten closing line value on 60% of our upset picks.

WEEK	PICK	WED ML	CLOSING ML	LINE VALUE	RESULT
9	NYG	125	130	No	Won 23-16
9	HOU	240	175	Yes	Lost 17-9
9	CHI	225	258	No	Lost 29-27
8	CAR	140	117	Yes	Won 19-13
8	JAC	143	167	No	Lost 31-7
8	NO	205	165	Yes	Won 36-27
7	PHI	135	-105	Yes	Lost 33-22
7	CIN	235	230	Yes	Won 41-17
7	WAS	323	335	No	Lost 24-10
6	JAC	157	115	Yes	Won 23-20
6	NE	165	165	No	Lost 35-29 (OT)
6	DET	155	170	No	Lost 34-11
5	PHI	157	121	Yes	Won 21-18
5	NYJ	145	122	Yes	Lost 27-20
5	SF	203	200	Yes	Lost 17-10
4	SEA	130	123	Yes	Won 28-21
4	PIT	251	210	Yes	Lost 27-17
4	NYJ	273	211	Yes	Won 27-24 (OT)
3	CIN	165	125	Yes	Won 24-10
3	PHI	165	165	No	Lost 41-21
3	JAC	290	308	No	Lost 31-19

Upset Pick Expectations

It’s important to understand the implications of betting on underdogs.

If you bet an underdog against the spread, you’re hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number. To profit long-term, you need to win more than half of these bets (specifically, 52.4% of them at the typical -110 payout odds).

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. In that context, you should expect to lose significantly more bets than you win.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of 100 moneyline bets on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather potentially long losing streaks along the way, and you need to be especially careful about judging your handicapping process based on short-term results.

Week 11 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to research your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our Custom Trends Tool.

To see all our model-based picks for NFL Week 11 (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.