NFL Week 7 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis (2021)
Week 7 featured a lot of blowouts, some teams struggling to score, and the home teams finally having a good week.
October 26, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
The Patriots crushed the Jets again in Week 7 (Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)
Week 7 2021 Highlights
- Six different games were decided by 20 or more points, and nine were decided by double digits.
- Home teams went 9-4 SU and 9-4 ATS, marking their first winning week in 2021.
- Four teams failed to score a touchdown in Week 7, including the Kansas City Chiefs.
- New England crushed the New York Jets, 54-13, in a game where QB Zach Wilson was injured in the first half.
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Week 7 Betting Results
- Biggest upset: Cincinnati over Baltimore (+6.5, +235 moneyline)
- Biggest ATS cover margin: New England over New York Jets (+34, won by 41 points as 7-point favorite)
- Most points above over/under line: New England-New York Jets (+24.5, 67 total points vs. O/U line of 42.5)
- Most points below over/under line: Tennessee-Kansas City (-29, 30 total points vs. O/U line of 59)
- Over/Unders: 5-8 Overs
- Home Teams: 9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS
- Favorites: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS
(To search for your own NFL betting trends, we invite you to use the beta version of our BetIQ Trend Finder Tool.)
NFL Season Betting Numbers
Here are the against-the-spread numbers so far this year in some key categories.
2021 Home/Road and Favorite/Under ATS Results
| CATEGORY | W | L | T | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 46 | 58 | 0 | 44.2% |
| Away | 58 | 46 | 0 | 55.8% |
| Favorite | 49 | 57 | 0 | 46.2% |
| Underdog | 57 | 49 | 0 | 53.8% |
| Overs | 47 | 58 | 2 | 44.9% |
| Unders | 58 | 47 | 2 | 55.1% |
Notables
- Favorites of 7 points or more are 20-2 SU and 14-8 ATS, while favorites of 6.5 points are less are 19-23 SU and 13-29 ATS.
- When the over/under is 45 points or less, the over is only 11-20-1.
- Division favorites are 15-11 ATS while all other favorites are 34-46 ATS.
Here are links to the most up-to-date info for ATS and over/under records so far in 2021:
2021 Results by Closing Point Spread
2021 Results by Closing Over/Under Total
Week 7 Miscues
Events like interceptions, lost fumbles, missed field goals and failed fourth-down conversions often lead to a loss of expected points and/or great field position for an opponent.
These drive-ending miscues often represent nothing more than bad luck. Adjusting for their effects can improve your NFL handicapping, since luck tends to even out over the long term.
Highlights
- Teams with four or more drive-ending miscues went 0-6 ATS.
- Teams with no drive-ending miscues went 1-0 ATS.
- The team with fewer miscues in the Week 7 matchups went 11-2 ATS (Cleveland and Denver were equal).
- One team that covered the spread despite losing the miscue battle was Detroit. The Lions lost by nine to the Rams, but they stayed in the game by using a successful onside kick and multiple fake punt conversions.
- The Jets had six different drives end in a turnover, missed field goal, or turnover on downs, while New England scored on nine of 10 drives before the final kneeldowns.
The full data below is sorted by total drive-ending miscues. Safeties and blocked punts are included in turnovers, and blocked field goals are included in missed field-goal attempts.
Week 7 Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts
| Team | TOs | FG X | TOD | Total | Opp | Margin | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | -6 | L |
| CHI | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -4 | L |
| KC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -4 | L |
| WAS | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | L |
| CAR | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -3 | L |
| SF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | L |
| PHI | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | L |
| SEA | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | W |
| DET | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | W |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | L |
| HOU | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | L |
| MIA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | L |
| ARI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| ATL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| IND | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| GB | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| TB | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| DEN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| CLE | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| NO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| LAR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| LV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| NYG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| TEN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| NE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | W |
2021 Season Total Miscues
The New York Jets took over the “lead” for having the worst differential, surpassing the Jaguars coming off their bye week and while Jacksonville was off. Kansas City, meanwhile, has a commanding lead in turnovers.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Cardinals continue to expand their lead by having the best differential in turnovers and miscues. They dominated Houston, and they also continued their run of fourth-down outcomes and fumble recoveries. They recovered their own fumble, Houston’s fumble, and stopped the Texans twice on fourth down.
2021 Season Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts Summary
| TEAM | TOS | FG X | TOD | TOTAL | OPP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 19 |
| LAR | 7 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 13 |
| BUF | 6 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 22 | 10 |
| TB | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 9 |
| NE | 13 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 23 | 9 |
| GB | 6 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 21 | 8 |
| NO | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 7 |
| DAL | 7 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 7 |
| LAC | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 5 |
| DEN | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 4 |
| IND | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 4 |
| LV | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 3 |
| CIN | 9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 2 |
| MIN | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 1 |
| BAL | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 1 |
| TEN | 9 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 |
| SEA | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 10 | -1 |
| CHI | 10 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 16 | -1 |
| CAR | 12 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 15 | -2 |
| NYG | 10 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 15 | -2 |
| PIT | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 10 | -3 |
| ATL | 8 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 10 | -3 |
| HOU | 11 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 13 | -5 |
| PHI | 7 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 11 | -6 |
| SF | 11 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 12 | -6 |
| CLE | 7 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 8 | -9 |
| MIA | 11 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 11 | -9 |
| WAS | 11 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 11 | -9 |
| DET | 10 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 11 | -10 |
| KC | 17 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 10 | -11 |
| JAC | 11 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 6 | -13 |
| NYJ | 12 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 6 | -15 |