BetIQ Daily: Oregon vs. Stanford Pick and Super Bowl Rushing Prop

Thursday picks in BetIQ include a pick on tonight's Oregon vs. Stanford game, a Baylor/LSU breakdown, and a SB prop pick.

February 10, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Oregon has consistently gotten better as the season goes on under coach Dana Altman (Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

BetIQ turns to the Pac-12 and a familiar team that likes to go on runs in the second half of conference play.

We also look at two teams that could present “buy” value opportunities in coming weeks, and throw in a Super Bowl rushing prop.

1) Oregon -8.5

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • vs. Stanford, Thursday at 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2
  • This is not a model pick, but a trends and team personnel pick.
  • The Ducks underachieved early on, but since they moved to current lineup in mid-December, they’ve had an average Game Score of 15.4, which is 8.5 points better than the first 10 games of season.
  • Ducks head coach Dana Altman has consistently made in-season lineup and tactical adjustments, and Oregon has been better in second half of seasons.
  • Over previous five seasons, Oregon is 50-25 ATS after Feb. 1, compared to 53-45 ATS in games prior.
  • After starting this year 4-10 ATS, Oregon has covered five of last seven games, with all covers coming by 9.5 or more points.
  • Oregon had three transfers in lineup and was missing center N’Faly Dante at start of year as he was recovering from a torn ACL.
  • This line is directly on point based on the full-season power ratings for Oregon, but using the Ducks’ rating in games with current lineup provides value.

2) Georgia State -1.5

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • at Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:00 p.m. ET
  • This is not a model pick, but a steam move and off-market line play.
  • This line has already moved from +1.5 to -1.5 for Georgia State today.
  • Our predictive ratings model has Coastal Carolina at 71 percent to cover.
  • That means the line is off how the teams have played so far this year, suggesting there is some piece of info (like injury or player absence) driving the big line move.
  • Over the last week, when our predictive rating model had a team at 66 percent or higher (like Coastal Carolina), that team is 1-4 ATS.

Potential Future Values Include Baylor and LSU

Paying attention to injuries can provide value in college basketball. That’s true not only for games when players are injured, but also in adjusting for the return of key players.

You often can find value on teams that have been materially impacted by injuries in the past, where the results in those games are pulling down the overall team quality measures.

Two team to monitor in this regard are LSU and Baylor.

LSU

  • LSU just went through an eight-game stretch where PG Xavier Pinson missed six games (and played 21 minutes combined in two others while trying to come back) and where forward Darius Days also suffered an ankle injury.
  • The Tigers went 2-6 SU and ATS in those eight games.
  • LSU is thin and young at the guard/wing positions without Pinson.
  • The Tigers are 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS in all other games.
  • Pinson was able to play 25 minutes and start the last game, a 76-68 win at Texas A&M.

LSU looks like a potential “buy” in coming weeks as a team that has been substantially better when healthy.

Baylor

  • Baylor has had injuries to guards James Akinjo, Adam Flagler, and L.J. Cryer over the last six games.
  • Flagler returned for the last game, while Cryer, the team’s leading three-point shooter (46.7 percent for the year) missed a third straight game.
  • The last three games include the two worst opponent-adjusted games for Baylor, and three of the bottom six games.
  • On January 15, Baylor was third in our predictive power ratings.
  • With recent results at less-than-full strength, the Bears have dropped to No. 7.

Baylor looks like a national title contender when it has its full lineup. The Bears have been less than that with their guard group heavily impacted by injuries.

They aren’t a full buy yet. Baylor bounced back to win and cover on the road at Kansas State last night (as a 6-point favorite). But we still haven’t seen Cryer return to action though he was considered “day-to-day” entering last Saturday’s game. If Cryer is confirmed back, though, look for Baylor to provide some value as they should be closer to the national champ contender form than what they have shown recently.

Super Bowl Rushing Prop

We published our Super Bowl prop picks on Tuesday, and if you are a betting subscriber, you have access to all the analysis.

Here’s one of the picks highlighted:

Total Players With a Rushing Attempt, Over 7.5 (-130)

This is a fun one that should have you rooting for both quarterbacks to log a rushing attempt, and for some wide receiver reverse or trick-play run. If you’re really fortunate, you may even get a punter or kicker to register a rushing attempt (Hey, both happened in Super Bowl XLVII!)

  • This prop is available at DraftKings.
  • Teams can resort to more surprise plays in a win-or-go-home game like this.
  • At least eight total players have had a rushing attempt in each of the last four Super Bowls, and nine or more had one in Super Bowls LII through LIV.
  • Eleven different wide receivers/tight ends had at least one rushing attempt across the last four games.
  • Between Kupp, Chase, Tee Higgins, Odell Beckham Jr., Van Jefferson and Tyler Boyd, there is a lot of wide receiver talent in this game, and the coaches may look for creative ways to get them the ball.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

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