BetIQ Daily: Patriots vs. Falcons Week 11 TNF Picks, Ohio State vs. Xavier and NBA

Picks for Thursday November 18 include an NFL over/under pick and parlay, a college basketball over/under, and an NBA moneyline.

November 18, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Welcome to BetIQ Daily, where we highlight a few sports betting picks from our data-driven models and analysis, plus betting-related insights curated by our staff.

Thursday, November 18 (#1)

Tonight’s Thursday Night Football showdown features a Super Bowl replay from five years ago, though we don’t see the 2021 edition of Patriots vs. Falcons playing out the same way.

There are also a couple notable NBA games and a full college basketball slate. We’ve included a pick for the final night of the Gavitt Games between the Big Ten and Big East.

3 Picks For Today

1) New England/Atlanta UNDER 47 — NFL Game Total

• At post time, this is one of our top three O/U model picks for Week 11.
• Patriots are 2nd in NFL in scoring defense and playing better lately.
• In 8 games with O/U line under 50, Pats have allowed only 14.75 pts/game.
• Atlanta has scored only 17.3 pts/game in 4 games w/o WR Calvin Ridley.
• Atlanta may not have Cordarrelle Patterson, one of few threats on offense.

Bonus Parlay: Game total Under 47 + Matt Ryan Under 248.5 Passing Yards + Kyle Pitts Under 61.5 Receiving Yards

• Our modeling has Ryan’s yardage prop a bit high given total expected points.
• Bill Belichick is a master of limiting opponents’ top threats.
• Pitts should be a focus for Pats defense with Ridley out, Patterson out/limited.

2) Ohio State/Xavier UNDER 139 —NCAAB Game Total

• Our over/under model (top model historically) likes the Under here.
• All six Gavitt Games so far this week have gone Under the game total.
• Our models had five of those as Under leans/picks, with two rated playable.
• Both teams play at below-average pace and limit teams in transition.
• So far this year both teams rank in the bottom 100 in 3pt % allowed.
• Some regression there could mean fewer points per possession.

3) San Antonio +119 — NBA Moneyline

• Our model picks for NBA moneylines are 40-22 (+9.0 units) so far this season.
• Minnesota is coming off a 10-point home win, playing B2B for only 2nd time.
• Minnesota lost second game of first back-to-back by 27 as a 7-point underdog.
• Minnesota is 0-4 ATS after an outright win so far this season

Daily Musings

Regression Session: Tennessee Titans

Comparing current public perception of the Titans (now tied for best record in the NFL) to their actual performance data, it sure feels like Tennessee is a candidate for regression over the second half of the NFL season.

• The Tennessee Titans are 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS so far this season.
• They are a perfect 5-0 SU in games where they were the betting underdog.
• So the Titans have looked even better in games they weren’t expected to win.
• Those included primetime wins against notable opponents like KC, LAR, BUF.

Now consider this:

• Tennessee only ranks 8th in our predictive ratings (driven by scoring differential).
• The Titans rank 1st in the NFL yards gained per point, at 12.5.
• That means they have scored  more points than their yards gained would suggest.
• Tennessee is tied for second in non-offensive touchdowns so far this year.
• Tennessee is also one of 11 teams that has yet to give up a non-offensive TD.
• Non-offensive TDs are often unpredictable, luck-based events.
• In 2 games w/o RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee gained only 225 yards/game.
• Meanwhile, the Titans gave up 360 yards/game (yet won both games).
• Tennessee is 4-1 in close games, including 2-1 in overtime.

We’ll see whether or not the regression gods bring the Titans a bit back to earth down the home stretch.

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