Preseason Bracketology: Our First 2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction

Here are our predictions for which teams will make the 2022 NCAA tournament as we get ready for the start of the 2021-22 college basketball season.

Preseason Bracketology

It’s college basketball season eve!

Last week, we released our preseason rankings and ratings, along with our preseason predictions for each conference. Here, we’ll provide our bracketology predictions for how the 2022 NCAA tournament will shape up, right before the season begins.

How Did We Do With Last Year’s Preseason Bracketology?

Let’s first recap how last year’s preseason bracketology predictions did compared to the actual 2021 NCAA tournament field.

  • Two of four top seeds likely correct. Our projected No. 1 seeds last year were Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor, and Villanova. Gonzaga and Baylor were the top two teams in the nation for most of the year, and they ended up in the championship game. Kansas was a No. 3 seed. Villanova likely would have been a No. 2 or No. 3 seed, but PG Collin Gillespie suffered a season-ending injury late in the year, dropping the Wildcats to a No. 5 seed.
  • Twenty of 22 conferences correctly projected as one-bid. The only conferences we incorrectly projected as a one-bid league were the Mountain West, where Utah State got into the field, and the Missouri Valley, where Drake was selected as an at-large into the First Four. We had a member of both conferences in our first five out in the preseason (Northern Iowa from the MVC, and Utah State from the Mountain West).
  • Seven of 20 one-bid conference champs correct. Based on our preseason conference tournament win odds, we expected to get an average of 7.3 correct from those 20 conferences. Seven is right in line with our expectations.
  • Thirty-six of 48 at-large quality teams correct. We projected 48 teams above the at-large cutoff line (37 at larges, and 11 projected conference champs). Thirty-six of them made into the 2021 NCAA tournament field. One of the misses self-imposed a postseason ban (Arizona) after the start of the season and would have been right on the bubble. Another, Oklahoma State, was banned from the postseason at the start of the year when we released the bracket projections. However, it appealed and was allowed to participate.
  • One projected top-four seed missed the tournament. Duke was the only team projected to be on a top-four seed line that wound up missing the NCAA tournament. Based on our preseason estimates, we would have expected 2.4 teams projected in the top four seeds to miss the tournament. This was a chalkier year where the expected top teams were among the best, outside of Duke.
  • One actual top-four seed wasn’t in our preseason bracket: The only “miss” was not foreseeing that Oklahoma State would be allowed in the NCAA tournament. Every other top-four seed was in our projected preseason bracket. Outside of Oklahoma State, the highest-seeded team that wasn’t in our preseason field was USC, a No. 6 seed that surged with lots of young talent.
  • The ACC was the biggest disappointment. The biggest conference disappointment was the ACC, and that was reflected in our projection misses. In addition to Duke, we also had Miami, Louisville and NC State in the tournament, so ACC teams accounted for one-third of our misses.

We weren’t perfect, but we didn’t expect to be. Again, we made these NCAA tournament predictions before the first game of the 2020-21 season.

In the end, teams in our preseason bracket reached the tournament slightly more often than we expected. Our projections were also better for the at-large quality teams than for the automatic bids.

Overall, we think we did pretty well for November!

Now, on to our 2022 NCAA tournament projected bracket.

Preseason Projected No. 1 NCAA Seeds in 2021-22

Here are our projected No. 1 seeds in the 2021 NCAA tournament:

  • Gonzaga (67% chance)
  • Michigan (31% chance)
  • Purdue (22% chance)
  • Kansas (21% chance)

Now, on to the rest of the bracket…

2021-22 Projected NCAA Tournament Bracket (Preseason Edition)

Here is a bracket putting each of the teams into a specific matchup. If you just want to see the projected seeds, you can go down to the table at the bottom of this post.

 

For details on how this bracket was created, see our original Madness Strikes November blog post. That post goes into more detail, but the basic idea is:

  1. Simulate the regular season
  2. Seed and play out the conference tournaments
  3. Simulate the NCAA tournament selection and seeding process

2021-22 NCAA Bid Odds for All 358 Teams

Our NCAA selection and seeding model doesn’t directly produce the projected bracket you see above. Its output is a set of odds describing each team’s chance to make the NCAA tournament and to earn each specific seed (among other info).

The bracket is created at the end based on those odds. However, we also use a bit of manual intervention to assign teams to specific bracket lines.

What does that mean for you? It means you get to see lots of juicy data, if you so desire.

Below, you’ll find our official 2022 NCAA tournament preseason projected bracketology odds for every team. Other pages on our site will be updating various odds on a daily basis as each day’s game results come in:

Some Final Tips for Understanding Our Bracketology Odds

In the 358-row table below, you might notice that some power conferences have more teams projected in the field than others. For example, the SEC has eight teams in the projected field, while the American Conference only has two.

Does that mean we expect the SEC to get eight teams in the tournament and the American to get only two? No. But when projecting individual teams, several SEC teams have percentage chances just above the cutline, while some of the American bubble teams are just below it.

For comparison, here is the number of teams appearing in the at-large bid range (37 at-larges plus nine auto bids) versus the number of teams we expect from each conference when we add up each individual team’s chances of making the tournament:

ConferencePreseason FieldExpected
Big Ten98.3
SEC86.4
ACC66.4
Big 1265.0
Pac 1255.3
Big East44.5
West Coast32.5
American23.1
Atlantic 1022.4
Mountain West11.9
TOTAL4645.8

So if you ask us how many teams will make the tournament from the SEC and the American, we would say about six and three, respectively.

But if you asked us to project the specific field by individual teams with the best chances, we would have a few more SEC teams and a fewer American teams. That’s because nailing the identity of the specific American teams is more unlikely outside of Houston and Memphis.

Without Further Ado…

Here are our 2021-22 preseason bracketology odds for every team:

TR Bracket SeedTeamBidAutoAt LargeAvg Seed If In1-4 Seed1 Seed
1Gonzaga97%69%28%1.792%67%
1Michigan98%22%76%3.669%31%
1Purdue94%18%77%4.160%22%
1Kansas96%24%72%4.359%21%
2UCLA92%33%59%3.961%19%
2Illinois93%15%78%4.554%17%
2Texas80%25%55%3.951%15%
2Houston85%34%51%4.449%11%
3Ohio State92%12%79%5.245%13%
3Alabama95%16%79%5.643%12%
3Villanova91%27%64%5.244%10%
3Memphis87%30%56%4.846%10%
4Auburn86%14%71%5.538%9%
4Kentucky85%16%69%5.438%9%
4Oregon84%18%66%5.437%9%
4Duke80%20%61%5.336%7%
5Baylor79%17%62%5.336%9%
5Tennessee86%15%71%5.835%8%
5Maryland84%9%76%5.932%7%
5USC80%18%62%5.535%7%
6Arkansas72%15%58%4.837%7%
6Florida St81%14%67%6.427%5%
6St Bonavent80%39%41%5.832%5%
6N Carolina78%14%65%6.426%5%
7Florida73%11%62%5.927%5%
7Indiana72%7%65%6.027%5%
7Texas Tech66%14%52%5.428%5%
7Louisville78%13%65%6.723%4%
8Seton Hall70%15%55%6.522%4%
8Connecticut65%18%47%5.726%4%
8W Virginia76%9%67%7.120%3%
8VA Tech73%11%62%6.920%3%
9Michigan St73%5%68%7.019%3%
9Oklahoma70%9%61%6.919%3%
9Arizona69%12%58%6.720%3%
9Xavier66%13%53%6.918%2%
10Virginia64%11%54%6.818%2%
10LSU60%5%55%8.011%1%
10Penn State55%4%51%7.312%1%
10San Diego St52%25%27%7.113%1%
11St Marys56%8%48%8.28%1%
11BYU53%10%43%7.212%1%
11Arizona St53%5%49%8.86%1%
11Iowa50%4%46%7.111%1%
11Richmond51%16%35%8.67%0%
11Miss State43%3%40%8.75%0%
12Colgate73%73%0%11.61%0%
12UAB38%38%0%8.94%0%
12Loyola-Chi37%34%2%8.46%0%
12Ohio26%26%0%11.01%0%
13Vermont52%52%0%13.20%0%
13Belmont45%45%0%12.90%0%
13S Dakota St45%45%0%13.20%0%
13Northeastrn37%36%1%12.60%0%
14Winthrop50%50%0%14.20%0%
14Wright State36%36%0%13.20%0%
14N Mex State35%35%0%12.70%0%
14UCSB33%33%0%13.00%0%
15Liberty35%35%0%13.50%0%
15Iona32%32%0%13.70%0%
15Furman30%30%0%12.40%0%
15Weber State30%30%0%13.00%0%
16Nicholls St53%53%0%15.50%0%
16TX Southern39%39%0%15.10%0%
16Morgan St38%38%0%15.80%0%
16Yale30%30%0%14.00%0%
16Bryant28%28%0%15.10%0%
16Georgia St26%26%0%13.20%0%
Nevada43%21%22%7.210%1%
Notre Dame43%6%37%7.68%1%
S Methodist39%12%27%6.411%1%
Wisconsin39%1%37%8.84%0%
NC State38%3%36%9.23%0%
Colorado37%5%32%8.05%0%
Wichita St36%7%29%8.05%0%
VCU35%12%24%9.03%0%
Murray St35%35%0%13.50%0%
Butler33%6%28%8.15%0%
St Johns32%8%24%6.97%1%
UC Irvine32%32%0%12.70%0%
Wash State31%3%28%8.63%0%
Rutgers31%1%29%8.83%0%
Central FL30%7%23%8.14%0%
Providence30%4%26%8.63%0%
San Fransco28%8%20%6.97%0%
Utah State28%15%12%8.04%0%
Boise State28%12%16%8.63%0%
Clemson28%3%26%8.73%0%
Marquette27%4%23%9.02%0%
Drake26%26%0%9.42%0%
Syracuse26%2%24%9.52%0%
Stanford26%2%24%9.61%0%
TX Christian25%2%23%9.62%0%
Buffalo25%25%0%10.91%0%
Harvard25%25%0%14.90%0%
Cincinnati24%7%17%7.64%0%
Colorado St24%16%8%7.94%0%
Oregon St23%2%21%9.51%0%
Princeton23%23%0%14.40%0%
Prairie View23%23%0%15.60%0%
Davidson22%7%15%9.91%0%
Jksnville St22%22%0%13.80%0%
Creighton21%4%17%8.42%0%
Nebraska21%1%20%9.81%0%
N Dakota St21%21%0%14.40%0%
Northwestern20%1%18%8.03%0%
Miami (FL)20%1%18%9.61%0%
Norfolk St20%20%0%16.00%0%
Washington19%1%18%10.41%0%
S Utah19%19%0%13.70%0%
E Tenn St18%18%0%13.30%0%
NC-Grnsboro18%18%0%13.40%0%
Cleveland St18%18%0%14.10%0%
Mississippi17%3%15%7.04%0%
Merrimack17%17%0%15.40%0%
GA Tech16%2%14%8.22%0%
Loyola Mymt16%3%13%8.81%0%
Missouri St16%16%1%10.31%0%
N Iowa16%12%5%10.51%0%
Grd Canyon16%16%0%13.80%0%
James Mad16%16%0%14.10%0%
St Peters16%16%0%14.60%0%
Wagner16%16%0%15.30%0%
Rhode Island15%7%9%9.81%0%
Saint Louis15%6%10%10.21%0%
Fla Gulf Cst15%15%0%14.20%0%
N Kentucky15%15%0%14.30%0%
Stony Brook15%15%0%14.60%0%
New Orleans15%15%0%16.00%0%
Utah14%2%13%9.21%0%
LA Tech14%13%1%10.90%0%
Toledo14%14%0%12.00%0%
Coastal Car14%14%0%13.90%0%
Portland St14%14%0%14.00%0%
UC Riverside14%14%0%14.00%0%
Montana14%14%0%14.10%0%
Oral Roberts14%14%0%14.70%0%
Jackson St14%14%0%15.80%0%
Coppin State14%14%0%16.00%0%
Howard14%14%0%16.00%0%
W Kentucky13%13%0%11.40%0%
E Kentucky13%13%0%14.20%0%
Morehead St13%13%0%14.60%0%
Ste F Austin12%12%0%13.90%0%
Chattanooga12%12%0%13.90%0%
Wofford12%12%0%13.90%0%
LA Lafayette12%12%0%14.10%0%
Drexel12%12%0%14.40%0%
Monmouth12%12%0%14.70%0%
U Penn12%12%0%14.90%0%
NC Central12%12%0%16.00%0%
U Mass11%5%6%10.30%0%
Abl Christian11%11%0%14.00%0%
Seattle11%11%0%14.20%0%
Boston U11%11%0%14.30%0%
South Dakota11%11%0%14.90%0%
Campbell11%11%0%15.40%0%
Mt St Marys11%11%0%15.50%0%
McNeese St11%11%0%16.00%0%
Akron10%10%0%12.90%0%
App State10%10%0%14.30%0%
N Colorado10%10%0%14.40%0%
Hofstra10%9%0%14.50%0%
Hartford10%10%0%14.80%0%
Marist10%10%0%15.00%0%
Radford10%10%0%15.30%0%
LIU10%10%0%15.60%0%
Tulsa9%2%7%9.21%0%
Dayton9%6%4%10.00%0%
Marshall9%8%0%11.60%0%
UNLV9%7%2%12.00%0%
Bowling Grn9%9%0%13.00%0%
Utah Val St9%9%0%14.10%0%
Arkansas St9%9%0%14.50%0%
Gard-Webb9%9%0%15.40%0%
DePaul8%1%7%10.40%0%
Kansas St8%1%8%10.70%0%
Navy8%8%0%14.40%0%
Longwood8%8%0%15.50%0%
St Fran (PA)8%8%0%15.70%0%
SE Louisiana8%8%0%16.00%0%
Vanderbilt7%1%7%9.40%0%
Georgetown7%1%6%10.00%0%
Minnesota7%0%7%10.30%0%
North Texas7%6%2%11.80%0%
Kent State7%7%0%13.00%0%
Lipscomb7%7%0%14.60%0%
TX-Arlington7%7%0%14.60%0%
Towson7%7%0%14.70%0%
IPFW7%7%0%14.80%0%
Delaware7%7%0%14.80%0%
Grambling St7%7%0%15.90%0%
Southern7%7%0%15.90%0%
Texas A&M6%1%5%7.81%0%
Pittsburgh6%0%5%10.30%0%
Old Dominion6%6%0%12.30%0%
Mercer6%6%0%14.40%0%
Sam Hous St6%6%0%14.40%0%
Hawaii6%6%0%14.60%0%
Texas State6%6%0%14.70%0%
S Alabama6%6%0%14.70%0%
IL-Chicago6%6%0%14.80%0%
Albany6%6%0%15.20%0%
UMKC6%6%0%15.40%0%
Sacred Hrt6%6%0%15.70%0%
Missouri5%0%5%10.50%0%
S Illinois5%5%0%12.50%0%
Charlotte5%4%0%12.80%0%
Miami (OH)5%5%0%13.70%0%
CS Bakersfld5%5%0%14.80%0%
Maryland BC5%5%0%15.20%0%
Niagara5%5%0%15.30%0%
Fairfield5%5%0%15.30%0%
Rider5%5%0%15.40%0%
NC-Asheville5%5%0%15.60%0%
Florida A&M5%5%0%15.90%0%
California4%0%4%10.60%0%
Fla Atlantic4%4%0%13.10%0%
Ball State4%4%0%13.90%0%
UC Davis4%4%0%14.90%0%
E Washingtn4%4%0%14.90%0%
Detroit4%4%0%15.00%0%
Oakland4%4%0%15.00%0%
Idaho State4%4%0%15.00%0%
Col Charlestn4%4%0%15.10%0%
NC-Wilmgton4%4%0%15.10%0%
Montana St4%4%0%15.20%0%
Siena4%4%0%15.30%0%
Mass Lowell4%4%0%15.30%0%
N Hampshire4%4%0%15.30%0%
Canisius4%4%0%15.40%0%
Brown4%4%0%15.40%0%
Quinnipiac4%4%0%15.50%0%
NW State4%4%0%16.00%0%
TX A&M-CC4%4%0%16.00%0%
Wake Forest3%1%2%8.80%0%
S Carolina3%0%3%9.90%0%
Stetson3%3%0%14.90%0%
WI-Milwkee3%3%0%15.00%0%
LA Monroe3%3%0%15.00%0%
GA Southern3%3%0%15.00%0%
CS Fullerton3%3%0%15.10%0%
Rob Morris3%3%0%15.20%0%
Dartmouth3%3%0%15.50%0%
Cornell3%3%0%15.60%0%
Manhattan3%3%0%15.60%0%
W Illinois3%3%0%15.70%0%
NC A&T3%3%0%15.80%0%
St Fran (NY)3%3%0%15.80%0%
Incar Word3%3%0%16.00%0%
Alcorn State3%3%0%16.00%0%
Duquesne2%1%1%11.90%0%
Fresno St2%2%0%12.20%0%
Wyoming2%2%0%12.70%0%
Bradley2%2%0%13.40%0%
Indiana St2%2%0%13.40%0%
S Mississippi2%2%0%13.40%0%
Rice2%2%0%13.50%0%
TX El Paso2%2%0%13.50%0%
VA Military2%2%0%15.10%0%
Jacksonville2%2%0%15.20%0%
Troy2%2%0%15.20%0%
Elon2%2%0%15.30%0%
American2%2%0%15.30%0%
Kennesaw St2%2%0%15.30%0%
Citadel2%2%0%15.30%0%
Youngs St2%2%0%15.40%0%
NJIT2%2%0%15.50%0%
Binghamton2%2%0%15.50%0%
TN State2%2%0%15.60%0%
Austin Peay2%2%0%15.60%0%
Hampton2%2%0%15.80%0%
High Point2%2%0%15.80%0%
F Dickinson2%2%0%15.90%0%
Houston Bap2%2%0%16.00%0%
Iowa State1%0%1%10.00%0%
Santa Clara1%0%1%10.40%0%
Boston Col1%0%1%10.40%0%
Pacific1%1%0%10.40%0%
San Diego1%0%0%10.40%0%
Georgia1%0%1%10.60%0%
Temple1%0%1%11.30%0%
Pepperdine1%0%0%11.30%0%
Tulane1%0%1%11.40%0%
Geo Mason1%0%0%12.30%0%
St Josephs1%0%0%12.70%0%
Valparaiso1%1%0%13.60%0%
TX-San Ant1%1%0%13.80%0%
Illinois St1%1%0%14.10%0%
Evansville1%1%0%14.10%0%
Central Mich1%1%0%15.10%0%
N Florida1%1%0%15.30%0%
AR Lit Rock1%1%0%15.30%0%
Samford1%1%0%15.30%0%
TX-Pan Am1%1%0%15.30%0%
Army1%1%0%15.40%0%
Loyola-MD1%1%0%15.40%0%
Sac State1%1%0%15.50%0%
Cal St Nrdge1%1%0%15.50%0%
Bucknell1%1%0%15.50%0%
Lafayette1%1%0%15.50%0%
Holy Cross1%1%0%15.50%0%
Lehigh1%1%0%15.60%0%
Wm & Mary1%1%0%15.60%0%
Cal Poly1%1%0%15.60%0%
Idaho1%1%0%15.60%0%
TN Tech1%1%0%15.70%0%
SE Missouri1%1%0%15.70%0%
Lg Beach St1%1%0%15.70%0%
Columbia1%1%0%15.80%0%
Presbyterian1%1%0%15.90%0%
North Dakota1%1%0%15.90%0%
Alab A&M1%1%0%16.00%0%
S Car State1%1%0%16.00%0%
Beth-Cook1%1%0%16.00%0%
Maryland ES1%1%0%16.00%0%
Delaware St1%1%0%16.00%0%
Portland0%0%0%12.10%0%
Geo Wshgtn0%0%0%12.80%0%
S Florida0%0%0%12.80%0%
E Carolina0%0%0%12.90%0%
La Salle0%0%0%13.10%0%
New Mexico0%0%0%14.20%0%
Florida Intl0%0%0%14.40%0%
Fordham0%0%0%15.00%0%
Middle Tenn0%0%0%15.10%0%
Lamar0%0%0%15.30%0%
Central Ark0%0%0%15.40%0%
W Carolina0%0%0%15.50%0%
W Michigan0%0%0%15.50%0%
N Illinois0%0%0%15.60%0%
E Michigan0%0%0%15.70%0%
N Arizona0%0%0%15.70%0%
WI-Grn Bay0%0%0%15.70%0%
E Illinois0%0%0%15.80%0%
Central Conn0%0%0%15.90%0%
Maine0%0%0%15.90%0%
Neb Omaha0%0%0%15.90%0%
TN Martin0%0%0%15.90%0%
Air Force0%0%0%16.00%0%
Alabama St0%0%0%16.00%0%
Ark Pine Bl0%0%0%16.00%0%
Charl South0%0%0%16.00%0%
Denver0%0%0%16.00%0%
IUPUI0%0%0%16.00%0%
SC Upstate0%0%0%16.00%0%
SIU Edward0%0%0%16.00%0%
San Jose St0%0%0%0.00%0%
Miss Val St0%0%0%0.00%0%
Chicago St0%0%0%0.00%0%
Bellarmine0%0%0%0.00%0%
Oklahoma St0%0%0%0.00%0%
Dixie State0%0%0%0.00%0%
N Alabama0%0%0%0.00%0%
Cal Baptist0%0%0%0.00%0%
Tarleton State0%0%0%0.00%0%
St. Thomas (MN)0%0%0%0.00%0%
UC San Diego0%0%0%0.00%0%