Preseason Bracketology: Our First 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction

Here are our predictions for which teams will make the 2023 NCAA tournament as we get ready for the start of the 2022-23 college basketball season.

We are just a few days away from the start of the college basketball season, which tips off on Tuesday, November 8th.

A few days ago, we released our preseason rankings and ratings, along with our preseason predictions for each conference. Here, we’ll provide our bracketology predictions for how the 2023 NCAA tournament will shape up, right before the season begins.

How Did We Do With Last Year’s Preseason Bracketology?

Let’s first recap how last year’s preseason bracketology predictions did compared to the actual 2022 NCAA tournament field.

  • Two of four top seeds likely correct. Our projected No. 1 seeds last year were Gonzaga, Kansas, Purdue, and Michigan. Gonzaga was the top overall seed, and Kansas won the national title as a No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, Purdue was a No. 3 seed, while Michigan struggled to make the tournament and was one of the last teams in as a No. 11 seed, before reaching the Sweet 16.
  • Twenty-one of 22 conferences correctly projected as one-bid. The conference we missed on the most was the Mountain West, which we projected for only one bid, but which ended up grabbing four (and then went 0-4 in the tournament). We had 10 conferences projected to receive multiple bids, and all of them did.
  • One projected top-four seed missed the tournament. Oregon was the only team projected to be on a top-four seed line that wound up missing the NCAA tournament. Based on our preseason estimates, we would have expected 1.5 teams projected in the top four seeds to miss the tournament, so getting one wrong was right about in line with expectations.
  • Eleven of 22 one-bid conference champs correct. Based on our preseason conference tournament win odds, we expected to get an average of 8.5 correct from those 22 conferences. Getting half of the auto-bids right from the mid-majors and smaller conferences is tough to do, and not a level we expect to hit every year.
  • Thirty-two of 46 at-large quality teams correct. We projected 46 teams above the at-large cutoff line (36 at larges, and 10 projected conference champs). Thirty-two of them made into the 2022 NCAA tournament field. Based on our own odds estimates, we would have expected 34.6 to make it. The underperformance was entirely in teams we projected for the No. 6 to No. 11 seed lines. Meanwhile, several teams we had just out of the field made it, including two of the first four listed out, and 11 different teams with estimated odds of 20% or higher entering the season.
  • Wisconsin, Providence, and Iowa State were our biggest misses: Neither Wisconsin nor Providence was in our projected field, and were the only two teams to get seeded as a top five seed that we did not have projected in our preseason field. Those two also happened to go a combined 27-6 in games decided by 6 points or less, or in overtime. Iowa State, meanwhile, was the biggest long shot to make it, as we gave them only a 1% chance of getting an at-large when the season began. The Cyclones had gone 2-22 the year before, so their turnaround was truly remarkable.
  • The Pac-12 was the biggest disappointment. The biggest conference disappointment was the Pac-12. In addition to the aforementioned Oregon missing the tournament after coming in with high expectations, Arizona State was also a big disappointment, and no other surprise teams emerged to join UCLA, Arizona, and USC in the field.

We weren’t perfect, but we didn’t expect to be. Again, we made these NCAA tournament predictions before the first game of the 2021-22 season.

In the end, we were slightly up on auto bids projected, just about in line with our expectations for the top five seeds, and slightly lower on the second half of the at-large field. Overall, you would have expected 43.1 teams from our projected 68-team field to make it, based on our listed odds. The actual number was 43. Not too bad.

Overall, we think we did pretty well for November!

Now, on to our 2023 NCAA tournament projected bracket.

Preseason Projected No. 1 NCAA Seeds in 2022-23

Here are our projected No. 1 seeds in the 2021 NCAA tournament:

  • Gonzaga (72% chance)
  • Kentucky (27% chance)
  • North Carolina (24% chance)
  • Tennessee (24% chance)

Now, on to the rest of the bracket…

2022-23 Projected NCAA Tournament Bracket (Preseason Edition)

Here is a bracket putting each of the teams into a specific matchup. If you just want to see the projected seeds, you can go down to the table at the bottom of this post.

For details on how this bracket was created, see our original Madness Strikes November blog post. That post goes into more detail, but the basic idea is:

  1. Simulate the regular season
  2. Seed and play out the conference tournaments
  3. Simulate the NCAA tournament selection and seeding process

2022-23 NCAA Bid Odds for All 363 Teams

Our NCAA selection and seeding model doesn’t directly produce the projected bracket you see above. Its output is a set of odds describing each team’s chance to make the NCAA tournament and to earn each specific seed (among other info).

The bracket is created at the end based on those odds. However, we also use a bit of manual intervention to assign teams to specific bracket lines.

What does that mean for you? It means you get to see lots of juicy data, if you so desire.

Below, you’ll find our official 2023 NCAA Tournament preseason projected bracketology odds for every team. Other pages on our site will be updating various odds on a daily basis as each day’s game results come in:

Some Final Tips for Understanding Our Bracketology Odds

Creating a single projected bracket where every team is either in or out is a bit different than creating projected bid odds, which allow for more nuance.

For example, in one-bid conferences we the team we project as most likely to win the conference tournament in our bracket. However, in many cases that team is still far more likely to miss the tournament than to make it. And a handful of teams in the conference may have a reasonable, but well below 50%, chance to reach the tournament.

A more interesting case is what happens around the at-large bubble. This preseason, the at-large cutline is around 47%. Team that are projected with higher than a 47% chance to make the tournament are in our single bracket, while teams with lower odds are not (unless they are a projected conference champion).

This can create clusters of teams in certain conferences, or in certain groups of conferences, that are just above or just below the cutline. As a result, just counting up the number of teams in the bracket for those conferences or groups may make their outlook look better or worse than it really is.

For comparison, here is the number of teams appearing in the at-large bid range in our bracket projections (36 at-larges plus 11 auto bids) versus the number of teams we expect from each conference when we add up each individual team’s chances of making the tournament:

ConferencePreseason FieldExpected
SEC87.8
Big Ten76.6
Big 1276.3
ACC65.8
Big East54.8
Pac 1244.5
Mountain West22.5
American22.5
Atlantic 1022.4
West Coast22.1
Conference USA21.6
TOTAL4746.9

Take a look at the Mountain West and Conference USA. The Mountain West has an expected average of of 2.5 NCAA tourney teams, versus 1.6 for Conference USA. We think the Mountain West is likely to get two or three teams, and Conference USA is more likely to get only one or two. But they both have exactly two teams in our projected bracket.

We project that the third best team in Conference USA is unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament, but the second best team has a reasonable shot. And there’s a clear top two teams in CUSA this season, Northern Kentucky and UAB, so we’re including both in the projected bracket.

On the other hand our model thinks the Mountain West is strong enough that not only the second but also the third best team will have a reasonable shot at the tourney. We just don’t have a great idea who that third best team will be at this point, so no individual team’s projected bid percentage is high enough to be included in our bracket.

Similarly, we expect that the next tier of conferences outside the traditional Power 6 (the American, Atlantic-10, Mountain West, and West Coast) to collectively have 9.5 teams in the tournament. But we have only eight projected in the field. So we anticipate that some more teams from those conferences will put together the resumés needed to get in, but identifying the specific ones is a bit harder.

Without Further Ado…

Here are our 2022-23 preseason bracketology odds for every team:

TR Bracket SeedTeamBidAutoAt LargeAvg Seed If In1-4 Seed1 Seed
1Gonzaga98%72%26%1.694%72%
1Kentucky94%22%71%3.665%27%
1N Carolina96%29%66%3.865%24%
1Tennessee92%20%72%3.862%24%
2Baylor93%23%70%4.158%21%
2Houston86%41%45%4.550%12%
2Auburn91%12%79%5.245%14%
2Kansas88%15%73%5.441%12%
3San Diego St78%36%42%4.842%9%
3Texas83%16%67%5.141%11%
3Duke83%18%66%5.041%9%
3Indiana87%19%68%5.341%10%
4Arizona81%25%56%5.040%9%
4Villanova85%22%63%5.340%9%
4Arkansas85%10%75%5.538%10%
4UCLA82%23%59%5.437%7%
5Virginia81%15%66%5.535%7%
5Alabama90%9%80%6.136%9%
5Dayton77%39%38%5.434%5%
5Xavier80%20%60%5.535%8%
6Texas Tech73%12%61%5.531%7%
6Creighton75%18%58%6.029%5%
6Florida76%8%68%6.128%6%
6TX Christian56%12%43%4.927%5%
7Michigan St83%12%71%6.826%5%
7Iowa64%12%52%6.023%4%
7Purdue67%11%56%6.223%4%
7Memphis73%22%51%6.821%3%
8Oklahoma St73%7%66%7.219%3%
8Oregon60%13%47%6.319%3%
8Miami (FL)55%9%46%6.118%2%
8Oklahoma65%7%58%6.918%4%
9Michigan64%8%55%7.116%2%
9VA Tech53%9%44%6.019%3%
9Connecticut55%12%43%6.417%2%
9Maryland60%8%52%7.016%2%
10Texas A&M57%4%53%7.214%2%
10Utah State52%19%33%6.616%2%
10Mississippi55%4%51%7.213%2%
10Seton Hall56%9%47%7.612%1%
11St Marys59%9%50%8.010%1%
11Saint Louis55%18%37%7.711%1%
11USC50%10%41%7.112%1%
11Florida St49%6%43%7.311%1%
11Ohio State49%6%43%7.79%1%
11UAB48%27%21%8.75%0%
12North Texas46%32%14%8.08%0%
12Drake24%22%2%10.41%0%
12Furman40%37%4%11.01%0%
12Toledo40%40%0%11.01%0%
13Grd Canyon27%27%0%11.60%0%
13Towson30%30%0%12.10%0%
13UCSB30%30%0%12.80%0%
13Liberty39%39%0%12.90%0%
14S Dakota St41%41%0%13.00%0%
14Vermont52%52%0%13.00%0%
14Marshall13%13%0%13.10%0%
14Colgate54%54%0%13.50%0%
15Princeton28%28%0%13.80%0%
15Iona26%26%0%13.70%0%
15Montana St20%20%0%14.40%0%
15N Kentucky19%19%0%14.40%0%
16Southern22%22%0%15.30%0%
16Norfolk St47%47%0%14.80%0%
16Nicholls St37%37%0%15.10%0%
16Longwood21%21%0%14.40%0%
16Morehead St34%34%0%15.00%0%
16Wagner39%39%0%15.50%0%
LSU45%4%40%6.413%2%
Illinois45%8%37%6.513%1%
Stanford45%10%35%7.011%1%
Wisconsin42%4%38%8.26%1%
Iowa State40%5%36%7.29%1%
Rutgers40%6%34%7.09%1%
W Virginia39%2%37%9.24%0%
Cincinnati37%17%20%6.312%1%
Wash State36%4%32%9.33%0%
Arizona St36%5%31%8.54%0%
Colorado35%7%29%7.66%1%
Notre Dame35%4%31%7.28%1%
Wyoming35%10%25%8.15%0%
Vanderbilt33%1%31%8.74%0%
Boise State33%9%23%8.34%0%
St Johns32%7%25%7.27%1%
BYU32%12%20%6.111%1%
DePaul32%3%28%9.23%0%
Penn State31%3%28%8.04%0%
Oral Roberts28%28%0%13.70%0%
Marquette27%4%23%8.63%0%
Miss State26%2%24%7.45%1%
Syracuse26%2%24%8.33%0%
TX A&M-CC24%24%0%15.40%0%
Clemson24%2%22%8.82%0%
Loyola-Chi24%11%13%8.62%0%
Missouri24%2%22%7.15%0%
Yale22%22%0%13.30%0%
NC State22%2%20%8.82%0%
UC Irvine21%21%0%13.00%0%
Akron21%21%0%12.60%0%
Wake Forest20%1%19%9.51%0%
U Penn20%20%0%13.30%0%
Kansas St20%1%19%9.02%0%
TX Southern20%20%0%15.40%0%
NC-Asheville20%20%0%14.50%0%
Richmond20%8%11%9.02%0%
E Washingtn20%20%0%14.40%0%
Bradley19%17%2%11.10%0%
NC-Grnsboro19%17%2%12.30%0%
IPFW18%18%0%14.50%0%
Chattanooga18%18%0%12.40%0%
Winthrop18%18%0%14.50%0%
Hofstra18%18%0%13.00%0%
Bryant17%17%0%14.40%0%
VCU17%6%11%9.51%0%
Fresno St17%7%9%8.32%0%
Wright State17%17%0%14.60%0%
TN Martin16%16%0%15.50%0%
Providence16%3%13%8.71%0%
LIU16%16%0%15.80%0%
San Francisco16%4%11%7.92%0%
Belmont16%14%2%11.20%0%
TN State16%16%0%15.40%0%
Kent State16%16%0%12.90%0%
W Kentucky16%11%5%10.60%0%
Howard16%16%0%15.60%0%
South Dakota16%16%0%14.30%0%
Fla Atlantic16%10%6%10.60%0%
Butler15%2%14%9.51%0%
Temple15%4%11%9.81%0%
Davidson15%5%10%9.71%0%
Northwestern15%1%14%9.11%0%
Montana15%15%0%14.60%0%
Hawaii15%15%0%13.70%0%
Weber State15%15%0%14.60%0%
Oakland14%14%0%14.70%0%
St Fran (PA)14%14%0%15.90%0%
Jacksonville14%14%0%13.70%0%
Alabama St14%14%0%15.50%0%
Youngs St14%14%0%14.70%0%
Louisville14%1%13%10.30%0%
Sacred Hrt14%14%0%15.90%0%
Gard-Webb13%13%0%14.80%0%
St Peters13%13%0%14.60%0%
Utah Val St13%13%0%12.70%0%
Mass Lowell13%13%0%14.70%0%
James Mad12%12%0%13.00%0%
LA Tech12%9%3%10.90%0%
Col Charlestn12%12%0%13.40%0%
S Alabama12%12%0%13.30%0%
Colorado St12%5%7%9.11%0%
N Colorado12%12%0%14.80%0%
Abl Christian12%12%0%12.90%0%
S Illinois12%11%0%12.00%0%
Utah11%2%9%8.81%0%
UNLV11%6%5%10.40%0%
New Orleans11%11%0%15.80%0%
Tulane11%6%5%8.41%0%
Rider11%11%0%14.80%0%
Boston U10%10%0%15.00%0%
Delaware10%10%0%13.60%0%
Texas State10%10%0%13.50%0%
Seattle10%10%0%12.90%0%
Prairie View10%10%0%15.70%0%
Nebraska10%1%9%10.10%0%
Middle Tenn10%5%5%11.60%0%
Geo Mason10%3%7%10.50%0%
Navy10%10%0%14.90%0%
Washington10%1%8%9.90%0%
Fla Gulf Cst10%10%0%14.00%0%
Campbell10%10%0%15.00%0%
NC-Wilmgton10%10%0%13.90%0%
LA Lafayette9%9%0%13.50%0%
SIU Edward9%9%0%15.70%0%
UC Riverside9%9%0%14.10%0%
Fairfield9%9%0%14.80%0%
St Fran (NY)9%9%0%15.90%0%
Jksnville St9%9%0%14.00%0%
Coppin State9%9%0%15.80%0%
Harvard9%9%0%14.10%0%
Missouri St9%8%1%12.10%0%
AR Lit Rock9%9%0%15.70%0%
Maryland ES9%9%0%15.90%0%
Morgan St9%9%0%15.90%0%
NC Central9%9%0%15.80%0%
Samford8%8%0%13.50%0%
GA Tech8%1%7%7.61%0%
N Florida8%8%0%14.20%0%
Quinnipiac8%8%0%15.00%0%
TN Tech8%8%0%15.70%0%
Brown8%8%0%14.20%0%
Wofford8%8%0%13.50%0%
N Iowa8%7%1%12.20%0%
Coastal Car8%8%0%13.50%0%
Boston Col8%1%7%9.80%0%
Cal Baptist8%8%0%13.10%0%
Ste F Austin8%8%0%13.30%0%
Lg Beach St8%8%0%14.20%0%
Cornell8%8%0%14.30%0%
N Mex State8%8%0%13.00%0%
Sam Hous St8%8%0%13.40%0%
Murray St7%6%1%12.40%0%
Georgia St7%7%0%13.60%0%
Sac State7%7%0%15.10%0%
Beth-Cook7%7%0%15.80%0%
Niagara7%7%0%15.10%0%
Alcorn State7%7%0%15.80%0%
N Dakota St7%7%0%15.00%0%
Portland St7%7%0%15.20%0%
App State7%7%0%13.70%0%
Wichita St7%3%4%9.41%0%
SE Louisiana7%7%0%15.90%0%
Grambling St7%7%0%15.80%0%
S Methodist7%2%5%10.20%0%
Mt St Marys7%7%0%15.10%0%
Central FL7%2%4%10.00%0%
Loyola-MD7%7%0%15.20%0%
Nevada7%3%4%10.20%0%
Ohio7%7%0%14.00%0%
NW State6%6%0%15.80%0%
Northeastrn6%6%0%14.10%0%
Siena6%6%0%15.10%0%
Old Dominion6%6%0%13.80%0%
Indiana St6%6%0%12.80%0%
Army6%6%0%15.30%0%
S Utah6%6%0%13.40%0%
Buffalo6%6%0%14.00%0%
CS Fullerton6%6%0%14.40%0%
Detroit6%6%0%15.30%0%
S Carolina6%0%6%9.70%0%
New Mexico6%3%3%9.70%0%
SE Missouri6%6%0%15.80%0%
Illinois St6%6%0%12.90%0%
Lipscomb6%6%0%14.30%0%
Maryland BC6%6%0%15.10%0%
GA Southern6%6%0%13.80%0%
McNeese St6%6%0%15.90%0%
UC Davis6%6%0%14.40%0%
Minnesota6%1%5%9.20%0%
Georgia6%0%5%9.40%0%
Mercer6%5%0%13.80%0%
St Bonavent5%2%3%10.50%0%
Santa Clara5%1%4%9.50%0%
Charlotte5%3%2%12.20%0%
Georgetown5%1%4%10.10%0%
Radford5%5%0%15.30%0%
High Point5%5%0%15.40%0%
Dartmouth5%5%0%14.60%0%
U Mass5%2%3%10.80%0%
Canisius5%5%0%15.20%0%
Cleveland St5%5%0%15.40%0%
Austin Peay5%5%0%14.40%0%
Drexel4%4%0%14.60%0%
Central Conn4%4%0%16.00%0%
Hsn Christian4%4%0%15.90%0%
Kennesaw St4%4%0%14.60%0%
Presbyterian4%4%0%15.40%0%
Alab A&M4%4%0%15.80%0%
Albany4%4%0%15.20%0%
F Dickinson4%4%0%16.00%0%
Jackson St4%4%0%15.90%0%
Pittsburgh4%0%3%10.40%0%
Ball State4%4%0%14.40%0%
La Salle4%2%2%11.10%0%
Binghamton4%4%0%15.30%0%
E Tenn St4%4%0%14.20%0%
N Arizona3%3%0%15.50%0%
Manhattan3%3%0%15.50%0%
WI-Milwkee3%3%0%15.40%0%
Troy3%3%0%14.30%0%
Lehigh3%3%0%15.60%0%
Stony Brook3%3%0%14.70%0%
Marist3%3%0%15.40%0%
Denver3%3%0%15.50%0%
E Kentucky3%3%0%14.50%0%
Bucknell3%3%0%15.50%0%
American3%3%0%15.50%0%
Rob Morris3%3%0%15.50%0%
Valparaiso3%3%0%13.50%0%
Rhode Island3%1%1%11.00%0%
SC Upstate3%3%0%15.70%0%
Cal Poly2%2%0%15.10%0%
Lafayette2%2%0%15.60%0%
UMKC2%2%0%15.60%0%
Lamar2%2%0%16.00%0%
Monmouth2%2%0%14.70%0%
Arkansas St2%2%0%14.60%0%
N Hampshire2%2%0%15.50%0%
LA Monroe2%2%0%14.50%0%
CS Bakersfld2%2%0%15.10%0%
Florida A&M2%2%0%16.00%0%
W Illinois2%2%0%15.60%0%
TX El Paso2%1%0%12.80%0%
Miami (OH)2%2%0%14.80%0%
W Michigan2%2%0%15.00%0%
Incar Word2%2%0%16.00%0%
NC A&T2%2%0%14.90%0%
Ark Pine Bl2%2%0%16.00%0%
S Car State2%2%0%16.00%0%
Bowling Grn2%2%0%14.80%0%
NJIT2%2%0%15.50%0%
Duquesne2%1%1%11.80%0%
Loyola Mymt2%0%1%10.70%0%
San Diego2%1%1%10.10%0%
Tulsa1%1%1%11.40%0%
Idaho State1%1%0%15.70%0%
VA Military1%1%0%14.90%0%
California1%0%1%11.10%0%
Cal St Nrdge1%1%0%15.30%0%
S Florida1%1%0%11.30%0%
Charl South1%1%0%15.70%0%
S Mississippi1%1%0%15.00%0%
Rice1%1%0%13.80%0%
Florida Intl1%1%0%13.50%0%
W Carolina1%1%0%14.90%0%
Citadel1%1%0%14.90%0%
St Josephs1%1%0%12.10%0%
N Illinois1%1%0%15.30%0%
TX-Arlington1%1%0%14.40%0%
E Illinois1%1%0%15.90%0%
WI-Grn Bay1%1%0%15.90%0%
Stetson1%1%0%15.10%0%
Elon1%1%0%15.20%0%
Wm & Mary1%1%0%15.30%0%
Delaware St1%1%0%16.00%0%
Hampton1%1%0%15.30%0%
Holy Cross1%1%0%15.70%0%
E Michigan1%1%0%15.20%0%
N Alabama1%1%0%15.20%0%
Maine1%1%0%15.70%0%
Neb Omaha1%1%0%15.80%0%
North Dakota1%1%0%15.80%0%
Portland1%0%0%10.80%0%
Central Mich1%1%0%15.40%0%
Fordham0%0%0%13.30%0%
Geo Wshgtn0%0%0%12.90%0%
Evansville0%0%0%14.40%0%
Idaho0%0%0%15.90%0%
TX-San Ant0%0%0%14.30%0%
TX-Pan Am0%0%0%14.80%0%
Central Ark0%0%0%15.50%0%
IL-Chicago0%0%0%14.80%0%
Columbia0%0%0%15.50%0%
Miss Val St0%0%0%16.00%0%
Pepperdine0%0%0%11.80%0%
San Jose St0%0%0%12.70%0%
Air Force0%0%0%13.30%0%
E Carolina0%0%0%14.00%0%
Oregon St0%0%0%11.90%0%
IUPUI0%0%0%16.00%0%
Pacific0%0%0%14.20%0%
Chicago St0%0%0%0.00%0%
Hartford0%0%0%0.00%0%
S Indiana0%0%0%0.00%0%
St. Thomas0%0%0%0.00%0%
Lindenwood0%0%0%0.00%0%
Merrimack0%0%0%0.00%0%
TX A&M-Com0%0%0%0.00%0%
Queens0%0%0%0.00%0%
UC San Diego0%0%0%0.00%0%
Utah Tech0%0%0%0.00%0%
Bellarmine0%0%0%0.00%0%
Tarleton State0%0%0%0.00%0%
Stonehill0%0%0%0.00%0%