Super Bowl Line Movement: Bet The Over/Under Early Or Wait?

The Super Bowl over/under line tends to move down as kickoff approaches, but not last year. Will Super Bowl LVIII be another exception?

Will the Chiefs go Under again? (William Purnell/Icon Sportswire)

Is it better to fire early with your Super Bowl over/under bet (aka the total, game total, or total points line), or wait until closer to kickoff time to see where the line moves?

To help inform a decision, we’ll explore opening and closing Super Bowl over/under lines and line movements going back to the 2008-09 Super Bowl.

Analysis of Super Bowl Over/Under Line Movement

In this post we discuss the following:

  • How often closing Super Bowl over/under lines are different than the opening line.
  • How much line movement we see in Super Bowl betting on the total points line.
  • Which direction the over/under line tends to move as Super Bowl kickoff nears.

Opening Super Bowl Over/Under Lines Versus Closing Lines

Here are the opening and closing totals, the change from open to close, and the highest and lowest totals at any point value for the last 14 Super Bowls. We add some observations below:

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