Thursday Night Football Picks & Preview: Bengals vs. Jaguars (Week 4 2021)

Picks, odds, predictions, trends, and news for the Week 4 2021 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Bengals and Jaguars.

September 30, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Week 4’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals features the NFL’s last two No. 1 overall picks.

Trevor Lawrence is off to a rough start in his rookie year, having already thrown seven interceptions for the 0-3 Jaguars. The 2-1 Bengals likely won’t stay in the mix for a surprise playoff spot for long if they lose a game like this.

Thursday Night Football Betting Details

Point Spread: Cincinnati (-7.5) vs. Jacksonville (Opened at -7.5)

Over/Under: 46.0 points (Opened at 45.5)

Moneyline: Cincinnati -336; Jacksonville +286

Key Injuries: Jacksonville kicker Josh Lambo is listed as being out (personal), so Matthew Wright will be the kicker; Cincinnati will be without WR Tee Higgins and G Xavier Su’a-Filo for the second straight game (full injury report)

BetIQ NFL Predictions: Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline Value

Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions

Here are our some picks that caught our eye for Thursday Night Football.

Bengals/Jaguars UNDER 46.0 Points

Our Decision Tree, Similar Games, and Ensemble Forecast Models all see value on the under in this game.

Trevor Lawrence UNDER 254.5 Passing Yards

After throwing for 332 yards in his NFL debut, Lawrence has thrown for only 337 yards over the last two games combined. Given the expected points for Jacksonville and underdog status (see the average similar game numbers above), his passing-yards total feels a bit high.

Add in his interception issues (at least two in every game so far), and our projection is for a more conservative game plan with Lawrence compared to Week 1.

Marvin Jones Jr. UNDER 70.5 Receiving Yards

Marvin Jones Jr. is Jacksonville’s leading receiver so far, and he has the highest yardage projection this week as well. But it’s less clear that he is the definite No. 1 going forward.

Our projection for the Jaguars receivers had all of Jones, Laviska Shenault Jr., and DJ Chark Jr. bunched near each other in projected usage. Nothing has changed that significantly, especially considering Shenault missed most of Week 2 because of an injury but has since returned.

Coupled with the under lean on passing yards, the under on Jones’ production here looks interesting.

Bengals & Jaguars Betting Trends

• Bengals in a New Role: The Bengals haven’t been favored by more than a touchdown since November 2017. They’ve been a betting favorite only four times prior with head coach Zac Taylor. They went 1-3 SU and ATS in those games, with the win coming last year at home against Jacksonville in Week 4.
• Thursday Favorites: The last time a team lost as a favorite of seven or more points when playing on short rest on Thursday was back in 2015 (Green Bay Packers against Chicago Bears). Since then, teams in that role have gone 20-0 SU and 16-4 ATS.

TNF Stat Projections and Player Props

Using the most similar games from the last five seasons, where the spread was approximately 7.5 points and the over/under was approximately 46.0 points, here are the average offensive statistics for teams like Cincinnati (favorite) and Jacksonville (underdog).

Similar Team Stats, Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville

Category	CIN	JAC
Pass Comp	22.5	21.7
Pass Att	34.2	34.7
Pass Yards	254.7	213.8
Pass TDs	1.9	1.2
Pass INTs	0.5	0.8
Rush Att	27.9	24.3
Rush Yards	120.6	104.6
Rush TDs	1.2	0.8

These are based on the average teams with these spreads and totals, but they don’t reflect specific traits of Cincinnati or Jacksonville. For example, a particular team might be more run-heavy near the goal line or pass more than a typical team.

Here are some of the more notable player props for this week’s matchup:

Key Player Props, TNF Week 4

Player	Team	Category	O/U
Joe Burrow	CIN	Passing Yards	248.5
Trevor Lawrence	JAC	Passing Yards	254.5
Trevor Lawrence	JAC	INTs	1.5 (+135/-185)
Trevor Lawrence	JAC	Rushing Yards	14.5
Joe Mixon	CIN	Rushing Yards	87.5
James Robinson	JAC	Rushing Yards	51.5
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	Receiving Yards	68.5
Marvin Jones	JAC	Receiving Yards	70.5
Laviska Shenault	JAC	Receiving Yards	41.5
Tyler Boyd	CIN	Receiving Yards	58.5
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	Receptions	4.5
Marvin Jones	JAC	Receptions	5.5
Laviska Shenault	JAC	Receptions	4.5
Tyler Boyd	CIN	Receptions	5.5

Sportsbook Promos

Here are some promotions available at various sportsbooks for MNF Week 4:

BetMGM

• Don’t Worry About Blown Leads: Moneyline bet is paid out as a winner if team is up by 10+ points at halftime

Caesars

Caesars Sportsbook Links: CO | IN | IA | MI | NJ | TN | VA | WV

• Bet $100 on the NFL by 9/30 and get a free NFL jersey (must opt-in to offer on site)
• Bet $50 on spread for UVA vs. Miami (NJ, IN, IA, MI, TN, AZ, CO, WV) or Jaguars v. Bengals (VA), and get a Free Bet equal to The Longest TD your team scores if they win! 

DraftKings

• Bet a first TD Scorer and if they don’t score first, but still get in the end zone, you get your bet back!
• New signups: Bet $1 on tonight’s game and get $150 in Free Bets Instantly

FanDuel

• Risk-Free First Bet: Get a risk free first bet up to $1,000 when you deposit $10 or more

PointsBet

• No juice spreads (see site for full details)

Unibet

Unibet Sportsbook  Links: IN | VA

• Daily Profit Boosts: 10% Live NFL Boost available every single gameday.