BetIQ Daily: NFL Christmas Day Picks, Warriors vs. Suns, and College Bowl Game Christmas Pick Extravaganza
Picks for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday include the Gasparilla Bowl, the Browns vs. Packers, and a NBA Christmas Day showdown.
December 23, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
Carson Wentz hasn't thrown many passes lately, but that could change (Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire)
Thursday, December 23 (#24)
BetIQ Daily is back on the night before Christmas Eve, so let’s see which picks are naughty or nice.
We’ve got a full pick segment to carry through the Christmas schedule, including college bowl picks, NFL picks, and an NBA pick on Christmas Day.
See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.
Picks for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday
1) Cleveland +7.5 (at Green Bay) – NFL Point Spread Pick
- Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
- This is not a playable pick based on our Ensemble Forecast model (none of the three NFL games on or before Christmas have playable lines/totals, per our models)
- However, the Decision Tree, Similar Games, and Predictive Ratings models all see some value on Cleveland.
- Green Bay is the most popular spread pick of Week 16 according to our pool picks data (80%).
- When the public has picked one side ATS at 75 percent or higher in our pool data, that team has gone 10-15 ATS this year.
- Cleveland should be closer to full strength after missing lots of key players in Monday’s loss to Las Vegas due to COVID-19.
2) Golden State +141 (at Phoenix) – NBA Moneyline Pick
- Saturday, 5:00 p.m. ET
- Playable moneyline NBA pick according to all of our models.
- Playable NBA ML picks are 67-54 (+10.0 units) this season.
- Showdown between the two best teams in NBA by record.
- Teams split their series last month, both winning at home, with Golden State at +14 point differential in the two games.
3) Central Florida -7 (vs. Florida) – College Bowl Spread Pick
- Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET in Tampa, FL (Gasparilla Bowl)
- Rated as playable spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
- We also featured UCF as one of our bowl upset picks.
- Florida is 2-8 ATS as a betting favorite this season.
- Knights could have motivational edge in in-state game against school that has not scheduled them in over a decade.
4) UCF/Florida Under 55.5 Points – College Bowl Over/Under Pick
- Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET in Tampa, FL (Gasparilla Bowl)
- Rated as playable over/under pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
- Florida has averaged only 17.8 points per game in its last four games against FBS competition.
- UCF defense has been up and down, but has allowed 25.2 points per game on the season, and under 20 points in five of last six games.
- As noted in our trends article, bowl games played in warmer-weather venues like Florida have had an under lean (53% under since 2008).
5) Carson Wentz Over 209.5 Passing Yards – NFL Player Prop Pick
- Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Based on spread, game total of 49 points, and Indianapolis’ run-heavy pass distribution relative to average, we project Wentz for 242.1 pass yards, nearly 33 yards of value.
- On the season, Wentz has gone over this number eight of 14 games.
- However, Wentz has gone under this number in four of last five games.
- Those results are heavily game-script related, as the Colts led by 20-plus points in the third quarter of three of last four games, so Wentz barely passed.
- If Colts are leading big again, he will likely go under, but there is value on this line in game-neutral or Colts-trailing situations in the second half.
BetIQ Daily Plan for Holiday Weeks
Today’s post covered the next three days, so there will not be a separate post on Christmas Eve. Here’s the rest of the schedule plan over the next week.
- Sunday, December 26: Week 16 Sunday NFL picks
- Monday, December 27: MNF picks for NO/MIA + Monday/Tuesday bowl games
- Wednesday, December 29: Week 17 NFL upset picks + four Wednesday bowl games
- Thursday, December 30: Picks for the nine bowl games on Friday/Saturday, including CFP games.
- Saturday, January 1: A picks article on the New Year’s Day bowl games.
- Sunday, January 2: Week 17 Sunday NFL picks
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 42-30-1 (58%, +8.2 units)
- College football over/under picks: 174-144-3 (55%, +14.2 units)
- NBA spread picks: 13-9 (59%, +2.8 units)
- NBA moneyline picks: 67-54 (+10.0 units)
To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.
We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.
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