NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LBSU SMC
Points 60.6 79.3
Total Points   139.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.4 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 11.0 31.1
Points From Free Throws 15.2 12.1
Shooting LBSU SMC
Field Goals Made 20.9 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 61.0
Field Goal % 37.9% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 42.6 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 40.4% 51.9%
3 Pointers Made 3.7 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 12.4 26.3
3 Point Shooting % 29.5% 39.5%
Free Throws Made 15.2 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 18.1
Free Throw % 71.5% 67.1%
Ball Control LBSU SMC
Rebounds 31.0 42.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 29.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 12.5
Turnovers 9.9 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.6
Steals 5.6 6.3
Fouls 13.9 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LBSU SMC
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 67.5 72.4
% of Possessions with LBSU SMC
2 Point Attempt 54.0% 41.6%
3 Point Attempt 15.8% 31.5%
Player Fouled 24.5% 19.9%
Turnover 14.2% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken LBSU SMC
Shot Blocked 6.0% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 20.6% 34.9%