NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHAR WKU
Points 73.6 70.5
Total Points   144.2
Points From 2-Pointers 35.1 40.7
Points From 3-Pointers 21.9 17.0
Points From Free Throws 16.7 12.9
Shooting CHAR WKU
Field Goals Made 24.8 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 54.2 59.9
Field Goal % 45.8% 43.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 31.2 41.3
2 Point Shooting % 56.2% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.0 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 30.5%
Free Throws Made 16.7 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 17.7
Free Throw % 75.2% 72.7%
Ball Control CHAR WKU
Rebounds 33.4 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 9.7
Turnovers 10.4 10.3
Blocked Shots 4.1 2.6
Steals 5.2 6.3
Fouls 14.4 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: W Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHAR WKU
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 70.4
% of Possessions with CHAR WKU
2 Point Attempt 39.5% 50.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 22.6%
Player Fouled 23.8% 20.3%
Turnover 14.6% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHAR WKU
Shot Blocked 4.4% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 21.3% 26.8%