NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHAR RICE
Points 72.1 65.8
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 34.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 19.8
Points From Free Throws 13.0 11.5
Shooting CHAR RICE
Field Goals Made 25.6 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.4 56.3
Field Goal % 46.1% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 33.3 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 52.8% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 31.6%
Free Throws Made 13.0 11.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 16.6
Free Throw % 75.2% 69.2%
Ball Control CHAR RICE
Rebounds 33.5 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 9.6
Turnovers 8.1 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.0
Steals 5.4 4.6
Fouls 13.3 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Rice

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHAR RICE
Total Possessions 65.8
Effective Scoring Chances 65.7 66.3
% of Possessions with CHAR RICE
2 Point Attempt 44.4% 46.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.5% 27.2%
Player Fouled 20.5% 20.2%
Turnover 12.3% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHAR RICE
Shot Blocked 5.3% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 27.3%