NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHAR UNCW
Points 70.0 69.7
Total Points   139.7
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 36.3
Points From 3-Pointers 18.8 18.9
Points From Free Throws 15.2 14.5
Shooting CHAR UNCW
Field Goals Made 24.2 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 50.6 56.9
Field Goal % 47.9% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 32.1 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 56.0% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 29.6%
Free Throws Made 15.2 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 18.7
Free Throw % 75.2% 77.5%
Ball Control CHAR UNCW
Rebounds 31.6 32.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 21.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 10.6
Turnovers 9.0 6.9
Blocked Shots 2.5 1.9
Steals 3.2 5.0
Fouls 14.5 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Wilmgton

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHAR UNCW
Total Possessions 64.6
Effective Scoring Chances 63.0 68.3
% of Possessions with CHAR UNCW
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 46.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 28.0%
Player Fouled 24.6% 22.5%
Turnover 14.0% 10.7%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 4.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHAR UNCW
Shot Blocked 3.4% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 30.5%